Expect No Shortage of Runs Between Yanks and Angels
When LA’s Garrett Richards and New York’s Masahiro Tanaka last squared off on April 28, the game couldn’t have been more lopsided in the Yankees’ favor. Should bettors expect the same result today?
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
MLB Pick: 1H „over“ and Angels 1H
History can be deceptive. Masahiro Tanaka (5-2, 4.95 ERA) shows strong recent numbers against the Halos. Both times when he faced them since 2017, he was also in good form. But currently he is struggling. For example, he achieved an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00 both times against Texas in 2017 but yielded a 10.11 FIP in his last outing against them.
Since May 9, lefties are slugging .875, righties only.353 against Tanaka. However, Boston righties’ xSLG (expected slugging) was .441 based on quality of contact. Texas lacks healthy right-handed hitters of quality and deflated this number. During his weak stretch, Tanaka, against right-handed batters, isn’t varying his location. He is hitting three spots with over 10% frequency. Moreover, he is leaving pitches in the heart of the plate with 6% frequency. Finally, he is struggling to finish batters off. Opponents are slugging .647 against his favorite two-pitch strike, the splitter.
Overall, Tanaka has allowed five homers in his past three games, yielding an FIP over 4.90 in each one and almost as many walks as strikeouts. Poor command is worrisome against LA, who ranks ninth in plate discipline, as measured by percentage of swings at would-be balls. Tanaka is struggling so despite a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Look out for Andrelton Simmons, who is batting .341 against righties.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Another night, another historic feat. <a href="https://t.co/WdWlu1ABDa">pic.twitter.com/WdWlu1ABDa</a></p>— New York Yankees (@Yankees) <a href=" ">26. Mai 2018</a></blockquote>
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Garrett Richards (4-3, 3.31 ERA) looks to rebound from his last disaster against the Yanks. He allowed six runs in the first inning partly thanks to a mixture of errors and passed balls. Compared with every game after April 28, his fastball yielded the lowest perceived velocity and second-lowest spin rate. He mustered a season-low 33% first-pitch strike rate. So he entered numerous fastball-friendly counts and relied way more on the fastball than usual and less on more effective pitches, such as his sinker, which the Yanks couldn’t touch. Richards can only have a better first inning, but because he matches up poorly against the Yanks, they will ultimately knock him out of the game early.
Richards relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo with strong velocity. The Yanks rank second in slugging against the four-seamer with a 95-97 mph range and ninth in expected slugging, meaning that they have been somewhat—but only somewhat—fortunate considering their quality of contact to hit as well as they have been. When they faced Richards, they slugged 1.333 against his fastball with an expected slugging of .950. So despite their downside against Richards’ favorite pitch outside of two-strike counts, they can still produce enough against him. Miguel Andujar, for instance, has been blazing the past seven days and bats .383 daytime.
Slugging Richards’ fastball has been a common festivity. In his last three starts, he allowed a .500 SLG or worse against his fastball. But besides counting on the Yankees’ statistically being due to regress against this pitch, Richards can count on the same agains this sinker and slider, based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which shows that the Yanks have been significantly outperforming their expected slugging statistics. Despite their overachievement, Richards will succeed in throwing his slider with two strikes, in which scenario the Yanks are statistically mediocre.
If Richards reaches a third time through the Yanks’ batting order, he’ll be in trouble, because his FIP is 6.31 in this case. But he’s showing strong form, having allowed only one total run in the first five innings of his last four starts. The Yanks will produce runs against him because of their match-up ceiling, but their expected statistical regression and Tanaka’s poor form give LA , who has been one of the most profitable road teams in 2018, underdog value.
When LA’s Garrett Richards and New York’s Masahiro Tanaka last squared off on April 28, the game couldn’t have been more lopsided in the Yankees’ favor. Should bettors expect the same result today?
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
MLB Pick: 1H „over“ and Angels 1H
History can be deceptive. Masahiro Tanaka (5-2, 4.95 ERA) shows strong recent numbers against the Halos. Both times when he faced them since 2017, he was also in good form. But currently he is struggling. For example, he achieved an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00 both times against Texas in 2017 but yielded a 10.11 FIP in his last outing against them.
Since May 9, lefties are slugging .875, righties only.353 against Tanaka. However, Boston righties’ xSLG (expected slugging) was .441 based on quality of contact. Texas lacks healthy right-handed hitters of quality and deflated this number. During his weak stretch, Tanaka, against right-handed batters, isn’t varying his location. He is hitting three spots with over 10% frequency. Moreover, he is leaving pitches in the heart of the plate with 6% frequency. Finally, he is struggling to finish batters off. Opponents are slugging .647 against his favorite two-pitch strike, the splitter.
Overall, Tanaka has allowed five homers in his past three games, yielding an FIP over 4.90 in each one and almost as many walks as strikeouts. Poor command is worrisome against LA, who ranks ninth in plate discipline, as measured by percentage of swings at would-be balls. Tanaka is struggling so despite a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Look out for Andrelton Simmons, who is batting .341 against righties.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Another night, another historic feat. <a href="https://t.co/WdWlu1ABDa">pic.twitter.com/WdWlu1ABDa</a></p>— New York Yankees (@Yankees) <a href=" ">26. Mai 2018</a></blockquote>
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Garrett Richards (4-3, 3.31 ERA) looks to rebound from his last disaster against the Yanks. He allowed six runs in the first inning partly thanks to a mixture of errors and passed balls. Compared with every game after April 28, his fastball yielded the lowest perceived velocity and second-lowest spin rate. He mustered a season-low 33% first-pitch strike rate. So he entered numerous fastball-friendly counts and relied way more on the fastball than usual and less on more effective pitches, such as his sinker, which the Yanks couldn’t touch. Richards can only have a better first inning, but because he matches up poorly against the Yanks, they will ultimately knock him out of the game early.
Richards relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo with strong velocity. The Yanks rank second in slugging against the four-seamer with a 95-97 mph range and ninth in expected slugging, meaning that they have been somewhat—but only somewhat—fortunate considering their quality of contact to hit as well as they have been. When they faced Richards, they slugged 1.333 against his fastball with an expected slugging of .950. So despite their downside against Richards’ favorite pitch outside of two-strike counts, they can still produce enough against him. Miguel Andujar, for instance, has been blazing the past seven days and bats .383 daytime.
Slugging Richards’ fastball has been a common festivity. In his last three starts, he allowed a .500 SLG or worse against his fastball. But besides counting on the Yankees’ statistically being due to regress against this pitch, Richards can count on the same agains this sinker and slider, based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which shows that the Yanks have been significantly outperforming their expected slugging statistics. Despite their overachievement, Richards will succeed in throwing his slider with two strikes, in which scenario the Yanks are statistically mediocre.
If Richards reaches a third time through the Yanks’ batting order, he’ll be in trouble, because his FIP is 6.31 in this case. But he’s showing strong form, having allowed only one total run in the first five innings of his last four starts. The Yanks will produce runs against him because of their match-up ceiling, but their expected statistical regression and Tanaka’s poor form give LA , who has been one of the most profitable road teams in 2018, underdog value.
