Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Gerrit Cole and Location
It's easy to like Yankee starter Gerrit Cole because of how attractive his surface stats look: he is 15-8 with a 3.03 ERA.
One of those wins and low-ERA performances even came against the Red Sox.
However, a deeper dive into his stats makes him impossible to like today.
He has performed awfully this season whenever he had to pitch in Boston's ballpark. Indeed, his one good performance this season against the Red Sox came in Yankee Stadium.
But on August 27, for example, he allowed five earned runs in five innings in Boston.
Similarly, on July 23, he conceded three earned runs in five innings in Fenway Park.
Cole collected the loss in both games.
So, this year, he is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in Fenway Park.
A persistent Gerrit Cole supporter might suggest that two games constitute a tiny data sample. Maybe "the third time's the charm" for Cole tonight in Fenway?
The problem with this rebuttal attempt is that Cole's problems in Fenway Park have been a constant feature in his career.
In Fenway Park, Cole is 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA in five career starts.
Given these career and 2021 statistics, you simply have to fade Gerrit Cole tonight.
Two Red Sox batters who look great tonight are Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez. Both slug well over .800 in at least 10 at-bats against Cole.
Nathan Eovaldi and Location
With Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi we can tell a similar kind of story: his surface stats (10-8, 3.58 ERA) may make him look less attractive than Cole since Cole has a much lower overall ERA, but a deeper look gives a completely contrary picture.
Recently, Eovaldi has been a reliable source of victory. The Red Sox are 6-0 in his last six starts.
A lot of this recent success has come at home, which echoes his season-long success at Fenway. He is a profitable pitcher this year because of the profit that he yields at Fenway.
His home ERA is a stellar 2.99.
Expect, among others, Gary Sanchez to continue to struggle. He is 2-for-14 (.143) lifetime against Eovaldi.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Jose Berrios
Blue Jay starter Jose Berrios has consistently been performing worse than usual, as evident in the worsening of his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
His relative lack of quality is unsurprising given the fact that, historically, he is a first-half pitcher. His worse months are typically the later ones.
The thing is, I would dislike Berrios tonight even if he were pitching in his best month and even if he were showing stronger form.
Berrios' three favorite pitches are the fastball curveball, and sinker. He throws each pitch with between 25- and 30-percent frequency.
Minnesota ranks second in slugging .496 against these pitches combined from righties.
Plus, the Twins show great form and are hitting well. They enjoy a three-game win streak during which they've scored, nine, five, and seven runs.
Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Nick Gordon all have a double in three career at-bats against Berrios.
Bailey Ober
It might seem easy to fade Twin starter Bailey Ober because the Blue Jays just saw him and destroyed him.
However, the advantage in this situation -- where a pitcher faces the same lineup in two consecutive starts -- lies in the pitcher to make adjustments.
There is precedent for a bounce-back start from Ober today because, on June 30 the White Sox destroyed him but managed zero runs in five innings when they saw him again on July 5.
So, for historical reasons, one should like Ober tonight.
Plus, Toronto is in somewhat of a rut, having lost three of its last four and scoring a combined total of three runs in its past two games.
The Verdict
Minnesota shows stronger team rhythm and enjoys a superb match-up opportunity against Berrios.
So, along with backing Boston in Fenway, I recommend investing in the Twins for a double-dog evening.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at +107 & Twins ML at +141 at +399 with Heritage
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Gerrit Cole and Location
It's easy to like Yankee starter Gerrit Cole because of how attractive his surface stats look: he is 15-8 with a 3.03 ERA.
One of those wins and low-ERA performances even came against the Red Sox.
However, a deeper dive into his stats makes him impossible to like today.
He has performed awfully this season whenever he had to pitch in Boston's ballpark. Indeed, his one good performance this season against the Red Sox came in Yankee Stadium.
But on August 27, for example, he allowed five earned runs in five innings in Boston.
Similarly, on July 23, he conceded three earned runs in five innings in Fenway Park.
Cole collected the loss in both games.
So, this year, he is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in Fenway Park.
A persistent Gerrit Cole supporter might suggest that two games constitute a tiny data sample. Maybe "the third time's the charm" for Cole tonight in Fenway?
The problem with this rebuttal attempt is that Cole's problems in Fenway Park have been a constant feature in his career.
In Fenway Park, Cole is 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA in five career starts.
Given these career and 2021 statistics, you simply have to fade Gerrit Cole tonight.
Two Red Sox batters who look great tonight are Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez. Both slug well over .800 in at least 10 at-bats against Cole.
Nathan Eovaldi and Location
With Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi we can tell a similar kind of story: his surface stats (10-8, 3.58 ERA) may make him look less attractive than Cole since Cole has a much lower overall ERA, but a deeper look gives a completely contrary picture.
Recently, Eovaldi has been a reliable source of victory. The Red Sox are 6-0 in his last six starts.
A lot of this recent success has come at home, which echoes his season-long success at Fenway. He is a profitable pitcher this year because of the profit that he yields at Fenway.
His home ERA is a stellar 2.99.
Expect, among others, Gary Sanchez to continue to struggle. He is 2-for-14 (.143) lifetime against Eovaldi.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Jose Berrios
Blue Jay starter Jose Berrios has consistently been performing worse than usual, as evident in the worsening of his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
His relative lack of quality is unsurprising given the fact that, historically, he is a first-half pitcher. His worse months are typically the later ones.
The thing is, I would dislike Berrios tonight even if he were pitching in his best month and even if he were showing stronger form.
Berrios' three favorite pitches are the fastball curveball, and sinker. He throws each pitch with between 25- and 30-percent frequency.
Minnesota ranks second in slugging .496 against these pitches combined from righties.
Plus, the Twins show great form and are hitting well. They enjoy a three-game win streak during which they've scored, nine, five, and seven runs.
Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Nick Gordon all have a double in three career at-bats against Berrios.
Bailey Ober
It might seem easy to fade Twin starter Bailey Ober because the Blue Jays just saw him and destroyed him.
However, the advantage in this situation -- where a pitcher faces the same lineup in two consecutive starts -- lies in the pitcher to make adjustments.
There is precedent for a bounce-back start from Ober today because, on June 30 the White Sox destroyed him but managed zero runs in five innings when they saw him again on July 5.
So, for historical reasons, one should like Ober tonight.
Plus, Toronto is in somewhat of a rut, having lost three of its last four and scoring a combined total of three runs in its past two games.
The Verdict
Minnesota shows stronger team rhythm and enjoys a superb match-up opportunity against Berrios.
So, along with backing Boston in Fenway, I recommend investing in the Twins for a double-dog evening.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at +107 & Twins ML at +141 at +399 with Heritage
