Red Sox To Give Yankees History Lesson About Boston Massacre
New York Yankees (52-28) at Boston (44-38)
When: 1:10 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: London Stadium, London
MLB Pick: Red Sox First-Half RL
A common feature of Boston starter Rick Porcello's (5-7, 4.52 ERA) last few poor starts is that he has surrendered many runs while trying to stretch his outings past the fifth inning. History indicates that Porcello will dominate through at least five innings today. In all eight of Porcello's career home starts versus New York, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer.
When Porcello brings his 'A' game, one thing he shows is variety. He relies on his fastball, sinker, and slider with between 21 and 32 percent frequency. He features his sinker especially as a first pitch against right-handed batters. In 80 tries against it in June, they've hit only one extra-base hit, a double.
If runners enter scoring position, Porcello features his fastball against lefties, who slug .356 against it, and his slider against righties, against which they slug .273. His fastball is effective against opposite-handed batters with its moderate arm-side motion that keeps it running not towards but away from them. Porcello's fastball also features a lot of spin, for which it ranks in the 83rd percentile. A pitch's spin deceives the batter as to its location. Porcello especially likes to elevate his four-seamer to give it the appearance of rising action.
Porcello's favorite pitch is the slider, which he plays off his high fastball well by consistently keeping it low and/or along the border of the zone. He is able to surprise batters, though, by elevating it, which is rare. It features tight lateral movement and little vertical motion, which makes it harder for batters to track.
Many Yankee batters struggle historically against Porcello. Gary Sanchez is 3-for-16 (.188) against him. Didi Gregorius is 5-for-31 (.161) and Gleyber Torres is 2-for-9 (.222) with zero extra-base hits.
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Whereas Porcello has always been solid as the home pitcher in this rivalry series, New York's Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.21 ERA) has always been hit-or-miss on the road against Boston. Lately, the key difference between Tanaka and Porcello is that opposing batters have been getting to the former much sooner than to the former. In the second time through the order, Tanaka is striking out 3.27 fewer batters per nine innings while allowing 1.50 more home runs than in the first time through the order. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in this scenario is 5.02.
What separates Porcello and Tanaka is the ability to finish off batters. Whereas Porcello doesn't rely too much on a single pitch with two strikes but can lean on a very effective slider, Tanaka relies heavily on his splitter, which is a problematic pitch. With two strikes, he throws it 41% of the time against lefties and 32% against righties. Overall, batters slug .528 against it, which is easily a career high for Tanaka.
Tanaka's splitter is inducing whiffs at half the rate that it was last year. One would think that the increased horizontal and vertical movement that he gave his splitter were something positive. But he's struggling to command his splitter. Its strike rate has plummeted. When he throws it for a strike, it lands with 19 percent frequency in two lower-middle parts of the zone. Last year, it didn't land in any of the nine more middle spots of the zone with over 6.50 percent frequency.
Whereas, among batters with over five career at-bats against Porcello, nobody is hitting .300, nearly half the lineup (four batters) have as many at-bats against Tanaka while hitting over .300. In particular, watch out for J.D. Martinez, who is 8-for-18 (.444) with two doubles and three homers versus Tanaka. Andrew Benintendi is 8-for-24 (.333) with two doubles and two homers.
New York Yankees (52-28) at Boston (44-38)
When: 1:10 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: London Stadium, London
MLB Pick: Red Sox First-Half RL
A common feature of Boston starter Rick Porcello's (5-7, 4.52 ERA) last few poor starts is that he has surrendered many runs while trying to stretch his outings past the fifth inning. History indicates that Porcello will dominate through at least five innings today. In all eight of Porcello's career home starts versus New York, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer.
When Porcello brings his 'A' game, one thing he shows is variety. He relies on his fastball, sinker, and slider with between 21 and 32 percent frequency. He features his sinker especially as a first pitch against right-handed batters. In 80 tries against it in June, they've hit only one extra-base hit, a double.
If runners enter scoring position, Porcello features his fastball against lefties, who slug .356 against it, and his slider against righties, against which they slug .273. His fastball is effective against opposite-handed batters with its moderate arm-side motion that keeps it running not towards but away from them. Porcello's fastball also features a lot of spin, for which it ranks in the 83rd percentile. A pitch's spin deceives the batter as to its location. Porcello especially likes to elevate his four-seamer to give it the appearance of rising action.
Porcello's favorite pitch is the slider, which he plays off his high fastball well by consistently keeping it low and/or along the border of the zone. He is able to surprise batters, though, by elevating it, which is rare. It features tight lateral movement and little vertical motion, which makes it harder for batters to track.
Many Yankee batters struggle historically against Porcello. Gary Sanchez is 3-for-16 (.188) against him. Didi Gregorius is 5-for-31 (.161) and Gleyber Torres is 2-for-9 (.222) with zero extra-base hits.
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Whereas Porcello has always been solid as the home pitcher in this rivalry series, New York's Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.21 ERA) has always been hit-or-miss on the road against Boston. Lately, the key difference between Tanaka and Porcello is that opposing batters have been getting to the former much sooner than to the former. In the second time through the order, Tanaka is striking out 3.27 fewer batters per nine innings while allowing 1.50 more home runs than in the first time through the order. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in this scenario is 5.02.
What separates Porcello and Tanaka is the ability to finish off batters. Whereas Porcello doesn't rely too much on a single pitch with two strikes but can lean on a very effective slider, Tanaka relies heavily on his splitter, which is a problematic pitch. With two strikes, he throws it 41% of the time against lefties and 32% against righties. Overall, batters slug .528 against it, which is easily a career high for Tanaka.
Tanaka's splitter is inducing whiffs at half the rate that it was last year. One would think that the increased horizontal and vertical movement that he gave his splitter were something positive. But he's struggling to command his splitter. Its strike rate has plummeted. When he throws it for a strike, it lands with 19 percent frequency in two lower-middle parts of the zone. Last year, it didn't land in any of the nine more middle spots of the zone with over 6.50 percent frequency.
Whereas, among batters with over five career at-bats against Porcello, nobody is hitting .300, nearly half the lineup (four batters) have as many at-bats against Tanaka while hitting over .300. In particular, watch out for J.D. Martinez, who is 8-for-18 (.444) with two doubles and three homers versus Tanaka. Andrew Benintendi is 8-for-24 (.333) with two doubles and two homers.
