xxDaJackalxx Week 5 Leans/Picks

xxDaJackaLxx

xxDaJackaLxx

Speaker for the Dead
Like many people, I ate shit last weekend. :hang:Oh well, you win some you lose some. What matters is the net total at the end of the season. Gonna switch up my method just a bit to get a better cross-section of games. Going with 5 ATS and 5 OU and 1 underdog ML. Also going to up my average plays from 1.1 and 2.2 units to 5.5 and 11 unit plays. (Going to AC in a few weeks, need to roll some quick cash) So here we go for week 5.


Locked Plays ATS:

IND -3 - 5 units to win 4.75 - W

TEN -3 - 5 units to win 4.75 - T

CHI -3.5 - 5 units to win 4.75 - W

NE -3.5 - 5 units to win 4.5 - W


Locked OU Plays:

CIN/DAL O44.5 - 5 units to win 4.75 - W

TB/DEN U48 - 5 units to win 4.3 - W

NE/SF O41 - 5 units to win 4.75 - W

PIT/JAX O36 - 5 units to win 4.75 - W



DOG ML:


WAS +220 - 2 units to win 4.4 - W


For fun: I parlayed all my ATS picks. 1 unit to win 24. (As discussed in another thread, this has a 1 in 36 chance of hitting. Stupid juice...)
 
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Redskins get beat by 11 this week 31-20 IMO...like them this year but bad spot bro B2B road conf games with Westbrook back I like Philly big!

On tenny-3/indy-3/NE-3/AZ pk (against my bills ahhhhh)
 
Stacks - I'm liking Zona more and more myself. Lotta confidence out there with this team.

PHI/WASH - Westbrook is still, at best, a gametime decision. See the "Week 5 Discussion" to read more about it.

Haven't laid any chalk yet, still mulling most of these over. Strongest leans are TEN, CHI, DAL Over, Zona Over.
 
Liking the picks good sir

Liking a lot of thing in the Miami game...hoping it goes back to +7 but def taking the over...Might wanna take a peek at that...

GO SKINS!!!:cheers:
 
9-0-1 with the parlay for +43 units on the day! Count it.

See you all tmw...tryin to keep my perfect MNF record alive.

Cheers!
 
:cheers: great job today, hope your leaning towards NO tomorrow:popcorn:
 
simply outstanding work. congrats on an impressive day sir.

i can tell this is not your first season of playing the nfl. i have been reading your posts the last couple of weeks and really share your views on allot of things. mostly i am impressed with your ability to recognize the obvious. i have noticed quite a few cappers (sometimes guilty myself) missing the play thats staring them in the face while they dig and search for the contrarian points mindfucking themselves (myself) into some pretty crazy propositions. from this obsession with "the public" to all the grandiose gambling methodology...how ridiculous we can be!

have you found consistent success over the years in the nfl?
 
Scraps - No, this is not my first season capping the NFL. As you can see, I joined in Dec of 06, just in time for the 06-07 post season. I've been posting on CTG for two full seasons and both have been profitable. This season has started out significantly better than last, since I took many of last year's lessons to heart:

1. Don't force a play where there isn't one. Some games are harder to cap than others and being selective in your picks pays off.

2. Be consistent. Bet roughly the same amount on roughly the same number of games each week (keeping in mind Lesson One). Betting 10 games Week One and only 2 games Week Two will make it very hard to earn a consistent profit. The same rule applies to the number of units bet. A classic mistake is going 8-2 one week betting 1 unit each and thinking, "Man, I shoulda bet 5 units each and I'd be up huge" and then betting 5 units a game next week. You're probably not going to go 8-2 again, and this time your losses will significantly cut your profit margin from the prior week(s).

3. Keep it simple, (stupid). You said it best, often we miss the obvious play and mind-fck ourselves into ridiculous propositions. I start with the week's card, look it over and pick about 5 or 6 ATS leans and 5 or 6 OU leans. Then I do a little reading to see how well I thought I knew the match-up. If the lean is supported by evidence, I will probably play it. But I DO NOT go searching for evidence just to support the lean. (See Lesson One) Either it's there, or it's not. If it's not, abandon the lean and move on.

4. Play with no attachment. A couple of my friends (not cappers) say I have no loyalty to teams and I am not a true fan. First of all, I am a true fan: DA BEARS. But second, for the most part, they are right. My loyalty (other than to the Bears) is to my money. Don't bet on a team because you like them or want them to win, bet on them because you think they WILL win, even if you hate everything about them. Bet against your boys when you know they are outmatched. Fanboys rarely make good gamblers, since emotion and money don't mix like two dicks and no chicks.

And 5. Know your numbers. I give 3rd & Long mad props for his "Double Up Experiment" and wish him all the success in the world. But at first glance, I think 3rd over-simplified the premise. Read the thread for more info, but the point of this lesson is to know a bit about probability, line shading, and how Vegas crunches its numbers versus how the average capper crunches theirs.

Other than that, I just get up every Sunday with an immense appreciation for the glory that is the National Football League.

Good luck everyone! I'm stepping down from this soapbox now.
 
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really appreciate the response and share quite a bit of your approach. look forward to a profitable season my friend.
doing much better in ncaa but still in the black in the nfl.
good luck tonight.
 
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