xxDaJackalxx Week 4 Leans/Plays

[xxDaJackaLxx]

Hello all. That time of week again! Here are my locked plays so far. May add one or two more and a few team totals as I investigate further.


Den -9.5 - 2.2 units to win 2 - L

Not that this line needs any explanation in my mind, there seem to be a few people on CTG willing to bet money on (possibly) the worst team in the NFL against (possibly) the best team. Huh? Why would you do that?!

Let's just play this by the numbers. Since the attention seems to be on Denver's defense, we'll tackle that first...no pun intended.

On average Denver's D is:
28th in Points Allowed - 28 pts/g
30th in Yards Allowed - 421 yds/g
32nd in Pass Allowed - 315 yds/g
15th in Rush Allowed - 106 yds/g

Miserable numbers for sure. But then again, those miserable numbers came primarily at the hands of the Saints (#1 in Pass Yards and #4 in Total Yards) and the Chargers (#2 in Points, #5 in Pass, #5 in Total Yards). Those two are not shabby offenses by any stretch of the imagination. And I'll address this in more detail in a minute, but guess who leads BOTH those teams in Points, Total Yards and Pass Yards? Denver! Denver's defense is not as bad as it looks on paper, at least in my opinion. They certainly have room to improve, but there are worse D's out there...Kinda like KC's.

On average KC's D is:
24th in Points Allowed - 26 pts/g
25th in Yards Allowed - 357 yds/g
4th in Pass Allowed - 144 yds/g
31st in Rush Allowed - 204 yds/g

"Wait a minute Jackal", you might be tempted to say, "KC is 4th against the pass! That's pretty much all Denver is good at!" And to you I would reply, "Shhh. Stop interrupting." The fact of the matter is, KC's Defense is 4th against Atlanta's pass (24th in the league), Oakland's pass (worst in the league), and New England's pass (20th). So they can sorta stop terrible passing games through the air...but still manage to lose by double digits to both ATL and OAK. Put money on that? Never.

Flip side of the coin; offense. Denver's offense has been nothing but fireworks. If their defense was par with any top 10 defense, people would be calling the Broncos the new New England Patriots.

Denver is:
1st in Points Scored - 38 pts/g
2nd in Yards Gained - 432 yds/g
2nd in Pass Gained - 301 yds/g
10th in Rush Gained - 130 yds/g

So if someone would like to tell me how KC stops Denver from doing what they do every game (scoring well over 30 points and making it look easy), I'm all ears. And I readily refute that playing in Arrowhead will have any defensive advantage for a KC defense that let ATL score 24 points before KC's offense could score 3. The Chiefs offense is garbage.

KC Offense:
30th in Points Scored - 10 pts/g
28th in Yards Gained - 258 yds/g
28th in Pass Gained - 144 yds/g
16th in Rush Gained - 113 yds/g

I see this game being a very "average" one for both teams. Kansas City scoring its 10 measly points, giving up huge chunks of yardage on defense every down. Denver scoring its 38 with ease. Both offenses get help from the other's defense and because of that I like the over, but I'm afraid even with Denver's help, KC will only score 6 or 7 points. This is a recipe for slaughter and I just can't see it any other way. How can you? 77-6 Denver. Seriously.

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Ten -3 - 2.2 units to win 2 - W

I said it last week about Tennessee and I'll say it again; Defenses win championships and the Titan's D is rolling! 3 sacks a sacking, 2 picks a picking, onnnnee runnnnn for siiixxxx...(catchy Christmas jingle). But seriously, that's 11 sacks on the season, 7 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1 blocked kick. And that's in three weeks! Right now on D they are 1st, 3rd, 3rd and 10th in Points, Yards, Rush and Pass respectively. Couldn't ask for more going against an iffy and as-of-yet unestablished Vikings squad. Tennessee will be the toughest defense the Vikes have faced all year and they won't be ready for it. Oh, and Tennessee's at home... I would take this line at -5.5 if I had to. 20-13 Tennessee.

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Buf -8 - 2.4 units to win 2 - W

Oakland gave Buffalo a run for their money (and gave Vegas mine) last week. No question Buffalo's defense could have played much better, only getting 1 sack all game...But Trent Edwards proved he can lead his team from 9 points down and put together scoring drives in the clutch. I think the fact that Oakland played Buffalo so well saves this line from being 10.5 or more. STL lost 37-13 to Seattle and I find myself asking, Who is better, SEA or BUF? And then I remember Week 1, where Buffalo smashed Seattle 34-10. There is a logical progression for you...

Buffalo beats Seattle by 24. Seattle beats St. Louis by 24. Ergo, Buffalo beats St. Louis by 48. Lol. Maybe not exactly, but you get the point...Wouldn't be surprised to see a pattern here. 34-10 Buffalo.

 

[SportsNut]

Looks like KC might start Huard and that is huge IMO ...Sure KC looked terrible but look at what happened when they got the offense going ....

KC 1st 5 possesions were 3 and OUTs really hurts the defense as well , then the next 2 INTS which allowed ATL good field position and amounted to 10 ATL points . ATL didnt move the ball 1st possessuons of the 1st Q so did the KC defense tire a bit ? It also scored on a 3rd down 70yd TD pass on one of its TD .

It was 24-0 before the offense started moving the ball but theyhad a 13 play 74yd TD drive in 2 minutes to close the half . They get the ball to start the 3rd Q and go 9 plays and 82 yards fr a TD now 24-14 game. Somewhat short field and ATL goes fopr a score to make it 31-14. Then they get the ball back and again all the way down to the 10 where Thigpen gets sacked on 3rd down maybe should have get it to LJ or Charles instead on 3rd and 3 thinking 4 downs maybe . Anyway 31 yd FG missed !! Instead of a 2 TD game with a quarter to play KC is probably devasted momentum wise ....Or not > Down 31 -14 they get the ball back at there 7 and take it all the way to the ATL 2 and get 1 yd on 4th and goal at the 2yd line ! So they lost a good 10 points there on consecutive drives .

Plus remember ATL got 10 pts in the 1st H off INTs and they last ATL score with 1 minute to play was a Pick 6 . So of 38 points 17 then came off turnovers and 1 off 1 big pass play . While KC left at least 10 pts off the board ....so very misleading game .....KC is showing improvement and that is key. Huard is a solid backup NFL QB while Thigpen was a youngster with little business starting IMO.

DEN has no defense !! They in B2B weeks nearly blew big leads and if both WINS were gifts . We all knopw the SD game and why did Shanahan go for 2 ? maybe because he knew they couldnt stop SD on defense ? How bout losing by 2 thanks to a failed to 2pt conversion and missed FG at the end of regulation.....

Pretty huge play I imagine on KC come Sunday . They might even WIN this SU IMO:cheers:

Well Minny also looks ike my fav play of the week at this point ...Tough losses to @ GB and to Indy much more credible then wins vs Jax and @ Cincy IMO....

GL though !:shake:

 

[brewer]

KC is 4th vs the pass because teams pass to get the lead and run to keep it.

Why do you prefer per game statistic opposed to per play?

 

[MusicCityGambler]

It's tough to not like Denver. I'm just worried this game could resemble the MIA/NE game last weekend(not that I think KC has a chance to win SU, but they could cover) because the Broncos have lived dangerously and it is a division game. Still think the Broncos get the cash.

I hope you're right on the Titans. I think the DL gets the job done, but it's a pretty tight line IMO.

Can't argue with fading the Rams.

Overall I like where you're going this weekend:fading the two worst teams in the league and backing a strong team at home. Seems like a winning strategy to me.

GL Jackal.

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

Looks like KC might start Huard and that is huge IMO ...Sure KC looked terrible but look at what happened when they got the offense going ....

KC 1st 5 possesions were 3 and OUTs really hurts the defense as well , then the next 2 INTS which allowed ATL good field position and amounted to 10 ATL points . ATL didnt move the ball 1st possessuons of the 1st Q so did the KC defense tire a bit ? It also scored on a 3rd down 70yd TD pass on one of its TD .

It was 24-0 before the offense started moving the ball but theyhad a 13 play 74yd TD drive in 2 minutes to close the half . They get the ball to start the 3rd Q and go 9 plays and 82 yards fr a TD now 24-14 game. Somewhat short field and ATL goes fopr a score to make it 31-14. Then they get the ball back and again all the way down to the 10 where Thigpen gets sacked on 3rd down maybe should have get it to LJ or Charles instead on 3rd and 3 thinking 4 downs maybe . Anyway 31 yd FG missed !! Instead of a 2 TD game with a quarter to play KC is probably devasted momentum wise ....Or not > Down 31 -14 they get the ball back at there 7 and take it all the way to the ATL 2 and get 1 yd on 4th and goal at the 2yd line ! So they lost a good 10 points there on consecutive drives .

Plus remember ATL got 10 pts in the 1st H off INTs and they last ATL score with 1 minute to play was a Pick 6 . So of 38 points 17 then came off turnovers and 1 off 1 big pass play . While KC left at least 10 pts off the board ....so very misleading game .....KC is showing improvement and that is key. Huard is a solid backup NFL QB while Thigpen was a youngster with little business starting IMO.

DEN has no defense !! They in B2B weeks nearly blew big leads and if both WINS were gifts . We all knopw the SD game and why did Shanahan go for 2 ? maybe because he knew they couldnt stop SD on defense ? How bout losing by 2 thanks to a failed to 2pt conversion and missed FG at the end of regulation.....

Pretty huge play I imagine on KC come Sunday . They might even WIN this SU IMO:cheers:

Well Minny also looks ike my fav play of the week at this point ...Tough losses to @ GB and to Indy much more credible then wins vs Jax and @ Cincy IMO....

GL though !:shake:

Regarding Denver, I can see what you're saying about KC's offense being able to move the ball against Atlanta and leaving points on the field. And sure, Denver's defense is probably not any better. But will KC really be able to go score for score with Den? No way. It might not be as bad a blow out as I'm predicting, but I still think Denver wins this by two TDs easy. Even if they go back and forth all night, KC will have more 3-and-outs than Denver and that's all Denver will need to stretch the point deficit beyond reach.

Denver is converting exactly 50% of its third downs while KC is converting 40%. So lets just say for argument sake, for every 20 plays KC punts 2 more times than Denver. By the end of the game, that would amount to 3 to 4 more punts/FG attempts instead of TDs. If Den can score anything on even half of those give-aways instead of punting, realistically you're looking at anywhere between 6 and 28 points. And Denver probably won't be settling for FGs very often.

Look at it another way. KC gets as many first downs as they do third downs. Denver is between 2x and 3x the amount of firsts over thirds. And when DEN is forced to third down, they get a first half of the time. KC will not be able to keep up with that all game long.

I won't argue that Denver full-out earned all three of their wins. But how would KC have done against NO's pass attack or SD's dual-back ground attack? Would KC have kept it within 10? I doubt it. Maybe I eat my shoes on this one, but I'd do it again 9 times outta 10. Even with Huard starting.

In 11 games in 2007, Huard threw at 62% for 11 TDs and 13 INTs. He was sacked 36 times for a total loss of 234 yds! He rushed for 9 attempts and a total of -1 yds. (I know a lot of that has to do with KC's O-line, which to the best of my knowledge hasn't changed any since then). He fumbled 5 times and lost 3 of them. His relative stats for the two games he's played this year are almost identical. More picks than TDs (2:1), 4 sacks at -5 a sack (-23yds), and throwing at 60%. The guy is no super-star...and I'd bet more than 2 units he doesn't out-play Jay "up-in-the-cut" Cutler, Sir Eddie Royal, and B-Real Brandon Marshall.

Good health to you my friend. I value your opinion on CTG, but KC SU over Denver? Can't get my head around that one.


:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

No worries bro. I dont get insulted if someone disagrees thats what it is all about . Calling KC SU is a stretch but I guess I think its very reasonable that it could happen .

I have no doubt DEN is gonna score here but if KC can run the ball with LJ and Charles which they did very well against ATL then I think that will be there equalizer . If they get to a shootout then I understandably I agree why you think ist crazy . Also while I agree KC is terrible they did hang with NE on the road and if not for some costly mistakes would have been in a much closer game @ ATL. Even the OAK game wasnt really decided I believe till about mid 3 quarter . So the better the offense plays and from the 1st Q the better IMO the defense will play .

The key for KC is to control tempo .

What I think tells alot about DEN real value is the fact the Saints ran up on 502 yards vs them @ Denver and the Broncos only had 369 . Forgot the pick missed 2 pt conversion to tie , the missed 43yd FG to win how bout the Bush fumble that went the other way for a TD and another 7 points ?? Mix in a TOD on the 1 yd line in the 2nd Q which got them a safety and were NO left 9 or 10 pts off the board and gave DEN 7 on the fumble . Thats 16-17 pts in a 2 pt game ...

Understand I am not in anyway comparing Brees to a KC QB but at home Denver allowed him to go 39 for 48 !! They are gonna face 2 bigger RBs @ KC who I think are gonna real ware down the DEN defense and move the chains . Granted Reggie Bush had 11 receptions but they were also minus Colston and Patten was later injured . So they allowed 500 yards at home to a team playng w/o its starting WRs ..alarming IMO.

Also again in the 2nd H the Denver offense was much less effective in terms of producing points (10 2nd H pts) . They did much better this time moving the ball though then vs SD much better . Remember vs SD only 2nd H points they had were the game winning TD which we all know should not have occurred . Think CUtler was picked after a long drive previous to that in the end zone but know they had a turnover . again vs NO they had a 4th Q long drive ended in a turnover in the red zone. Crucial mistakes and they are getting the breaks to overcome them. Also while DEN took a safety NO failed at the 1 yd line and TOD to put them there if they score a TD that would have been 3 2nd Q TD drives . So IMO NO should have hung 43 pts on Denver but failled on execution twice . In DEN case the O did well in the 2nd H 31plays and 217 yds is 7 yds per play but again just 10 pts as they had 1 TD , settled for a FG and had a fumble in the red zone . Gonna think the problems persist or dont get better on the road even vs lesser talent .

The week before the defense allowed 8.8 yds per play to SD who played with a limited LT and less then 100% Antonio Gates which are clearly 2 key weapons . So again a less then full strength offense went to DEN and had its way with them. We all know about the ending to the game but SD also messed up allowing DEN in a 24-17 game to go 11plyas and 80 yds in 2:20 to end the half and hang a TD on them with 2 seconds left . They hold them to a FG maybe a different outcome ...

Bottomline is Huard starting at QB is the key for me thinking they could win .

I think DEN has gotten 2 many breaks the past 2 weeks and it has to catch up to them , When better then vs a rival , on the road , as 10 pt dogs when they are walking into a bee's nest and dont even realize it . Even OAK ran all over them with little threat of a passing game although alot was in the 2nd H . Still the 1st Q fumble was huge for a team w/o an identity looking for stability . It was like here we go again instead of maybe a TD or worst case a FG ....nada ...

Pretty comfortable taking +10 or +10.5 here ....vs a team who cant play defense ...cant KC execute on offense is the key ....KC pass rush is a huge concern but also like that KC has a guy punting well ....

BOL to you bro.....:shake:Just sharing my thoughts

 

[brewer]

I dont think New England is an average team let alone a good team. What has New England done to date without Brady? If Brady wouldn't have started that game and gave New England the lead would New England even have won the game? KC hung with New England when Tom went down and had a chance to win the game late but the pass fell incomplete in the endzone. New England beat a bad Jets team on the road in a close game and got waxed at home by Miami, another bad team.

I think the general consensus out is New England is still regarded higher than what they truly are thanks in part to last year and their name. I believe they are 11th or 12th in the ESPN fan voted PR's. Which is laughable. I think they are bottom 5 or near it.

When teams get a big lead on you (Atlanta) in a game they will let you (KC) run the ball on them to keep the clock moving.

I think the Denver defense is a lot better than is thought of them. They have played two good offenses in San Diego and New Orleans and gave up meaningless yards to Oakland because they went up by such a huge margin.

Denver should stack the box, let champ take away one half the field and dare Huard to beat you with Gonzalez down the middle.

If KC cant stop Ryan, White and Turner how are they stopping a significantly better version of that in Cutler (who may be the #1 qb in the game), Marshall (the #1 receiver) and an always good Denver run game?

I don't see them stopping any of that and im not willing to bet on a team who I don't think has a shot at the su. Denver rolls.

 

[SportsNut]

I disagree Brewer entirely with what you posted . Not saying my opinion is correct but I just dont see it that way ..float a response later on. Have to finish up baseball and have 2 hoops games tonight . So time is short for the next 5 or so hours ....:shake:Especially the part about NE and Brady starting that was Cassel's doing not brady's

 

[Streakin]

Titans defense is sick. I really love them this weekend against an inferior team IMO

 

[MeasyMoney]

why not bet against rams and chiefs!!! BOL

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

Added:

Jax -7 - 2.1 units to win 2 - L

WHY? HOUSTON TEXANS AWAY:

I think that trend your referring to is them being 0-5 on the road in their last 5 getting outscored 162 to 81. (Exactly double! Ouch) Or how about them going 2-8 SU on the road in their last 10?

Not sure what the spreads where for those last 10 games, but I doubt Vegas was giving them the points they lost by:

10, 20, 25, 20, 8, 23, 21, and 19. Those are huge deficits.

Maybe its because they're converting only 27% of third downs on the road.

Matt Shuab on the road:

60% completions
170yd average
3 TDs / 7 INTs

Hmm. :4_12_12: I know...:4_12_13: FADE HOUSTON on the road.

:animated-Dead12:

 

[brewer]

On every bet in here with you.

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

:shake: Let's cash!

 

[EDizzle]

GL bro I am on a lot of these also. Houston always plays jacksonville close that could be a tough one.
:cheers:

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

On tilt. ADDED:

7 PT TEASER: DAL -3 / OVER 39 - 13 units to win 10 - L

FUCK THIS WEEK.
:hang:

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

Cannot believe what happened to Denver. Talk about Humble-Pie. Sportsnut, I've been singing your praises all day. You can tell me you told me so later. Time to recoup.