Wta Wimbledon

S

Songo

Pretty much a regular
( 06' season record: -29.86 units )
07' season record: + 5.56 units
last played week (RG): + 5 units


Hi all. I have very limited time now, but i've been following the news & matches, so the capping homework isnt neglected, if you ask me.

I'll be writing quick thoughts about every match as for now:


Mattek over Bardina @1.65 (betfair) 1 unit

This is what we all like in betting on tennis: a player who has the game for the surface against the player who dont know how to play on it. Bethanie is playing well at the net, and Vasilisa doesnt know how to play at the net. She prefers to stay at the baseline. I see Bethanie's attacking style should prevail tmrw.

Stosur over Brandi & Vesnina over Poutchkova @1.89 (gamebookers) 1 unit

I expect Sammy will be playing well here in Wimby, i have no doubts she's in form and this is very good year for her (if not the best). This surface isnt new for Kristina, she used to play well on the faster surfaces, but Sammy's big serve and volleyshould be too much for Kristi.
Lena's enjoying playing tennis more and more, and this is nice to see. She's been playing an incosistent game, but the things got changed a little now. Even if she'll make many ue's, I still cant see how Olga could win this match, if I look at her horrible form as of late.


I also think that Bremond and Vinci will wake up finally, but wont touch their matches yet.

gl to all
 
posting my play now, before the odds will change, write ups later...

Azarenka over Garbin @2.1 (betfair) 1 unit
 
another 0,5 units for this match, so its 1,5 units for Vika now:

Azarenka over Garbin @2.1 (betfair) 1 unit - posted above

Azarenka over Garbin @2.04 0,5 units (betfair)
 
Azarenka vs Garbin
I was far from guess what the odds will be on this match. I expected somthin like 1.5 for Vika, and i was very surprised when i saw 2.1 for her. The first, and the main point why im choosing Vika here is the fighting spirit. Victoria is a young, hungry fighter without any doubts for me. If I was watching Tax lately, i noticed some kind of tiredness in her eyes. I didnt watch enough matches by her to prove it, but i have the feeling she's little tired about this season yet. Today's not the same Tatiana Garbin as she was in the beggining of the year. The problem might be experience here. Vika is not enough experienced yet, and Tati with that age and as many matches she played, could easly be a teacher of her. But the truth is that this is not the surface Tax is feeling good on it. She prefers the slower courts. Vika is more a hardhitter, if we look on both players. The fighter's behaviour, flat shots, and young legs - these things convinced me to play Vika today.
 
it looks the odds are going down, so im posting my play now, reasons later:

Bondarenko over Schnyder @1.89 (betfair) 2 units


.... will also probably be playing Paszek +hc, and Bartoli
 
Bondarenko vs Schnyder
Im not buying this two previous Patty's wins. This is clearly not her surface. I already have been saying that she needs to put to her shots more power. I dont like to watch her passing shots on the faster surfaces. These shots just goes against her. It works pretty well on clay but not on grass obviously. Alona has a quickier, and stronger shot, especially forehand. She's been playing well as of late, she's in-form now. Its comfortable for her to playing against the player who use less power than her, cuz she can control the rallies, and limit the errors. Medium stakes for me.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=466 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=15><SPACER width="15" type="block" height="1"></TD><TD class=tblBord><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tblTitleBg><TD class=tblTitleText width=449 colSpan=5 height=17>Patty Schnyder Grand Slam Singles Results</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2 width=48>Year</TD><TD class=tblBg2 width=100>Wimbledon</TD><TD class=tblBg2 width=100></TD><TD class=tblBg2 width=100></TD><TD class=tblBg2 width=100></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>1996</TD><TD class=tblBg3>1ST</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>1997</TD><TD class=tblBg3>1ST</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>1998</TD><TD class=tblBg3>2ND</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>1999</TD><TD class=tblBg3>1ST</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2000</TD><TD class=tblBg3>2ND</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2001</TD><TD class=tblBg3>3RD</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2002</TD><TD class=tblBg3>2ND</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2003</TD><TD class=tblBg3>1ST</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2004</TD><TD class=tblBg3>2ND</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2005</TD><TD class=tblBg3>1ST</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2006</TD><TD class=tblBg3>2ND</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=tblBg2>2007</TD><TD class=tblBg3>currently 3rd</TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD><TD class=tblBg3></TD></TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Schnyder is in the 3rd round at Wimbledon for only the 2nd time in her career and has never made the 4th round (0.0% of total appearances). In the other 3 slams combined, she has made at least the 4th round or beyond 17 times (51.5% of total appearances) - grass is clearly her nemesis (she has failed to get past the 1st round 41.6% of the time)
My concern for Bondarenko is she's never been beyond the 3rd round in any slam, but she has been this far at Wimbeldon before (this is her 2nd time this far in only 3 Wimbledon appearances, matching Schnyder's 2nd time, but in 12 appearances) and it's still early in her career. On this surface she is clearly on her way up, as opposed to Schnyder.

I think the Ukrainian is worth a bet.:cheers:
 
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Great work so far this tourney DT. I've been playing some as well and was on Mattek first round as well. Didn't get a chance to jump against Garbin yesterday but hit Rezai. I'll be fading Patty here as well. Let's hope she continues the history of her Wimbledons. Some nice info there BC.
 
I'd be on this one as well if I had access to a sportsbook with handicapped lines. Bartoli has been playing well and of course her game suits grass, but the biggest reason I think this play is a good one is the way Jankovic has been playing this tourney so far.

We all know she has been playing way too many tourneys and she is showing signs of burnout IMO, so one of these days she is bound to hit the brick wall.

Plus 5.5 games is a ton on grass in a best of 3.

GL today DT
 
Did a bit of work, and this is what I've come up with.

Ivanovic is a public darling at the moment (tennis public, not betting public) with her French performance carrying over (so far) to Wimbledon.

BUT

Of her 10 Slam peformances prior to this one, she's only ever advanced beyond the 4th round on a clay surface (that being this year's French runner-up, and a quarter finalist loser there 2 years ago). On the 3 other GS surfaces, shes played 7 complete tournaments for 6 losses in the 3rd round or before, and 1 loss in the 4th round. Which all goes towards meaning this is as deep as she's ever been in a non-clay surfaced Grand Slam.

Petrova, on the other hand, has made the 4th round for the 4th time in her last 5 Wimbledons (the 1 failure a 3rd round exit), and her previous Wimbledon appearance saw her reach the quarter-finals.

Beyond the historical indicators which give an edge to Petrova, theres the fact that in this present tournament Ivanovic is only getting 55.4% of her 1st serves in, compared to 66.2% by Petrova. So while she's winning slightly more of her 1st service points (80.3%) than what Petrova is (73.1%), that disparity is still a prevalent one considering she's only winning her 2nd service points at 50%.

Petrova has equally hit the greater number of unforced errors and winners, so theres no great statistical story being told there. Aces & DFs are pretty much a wash. The biggest difference between these 2 comes down to performance & experience on the GS surface concerned, and the first service percentages.

Considering the odds involved, theres enough above for me to put something on Petrova.
 
very late play by me:


Ivanovic over Petrova @1.53 (betfair) 1 unit

odds are low, so cant go with high stake here. I see Ana as too much for Nadia those days, she's serving well, and she's better from the baseline, i mean more solid.... Nadia has no confidence now, she's too erratic to win over hot Ana, i believe.
 
BC, sorry for the late reply..

not too much time to explain, but as you see, I have made late decision to play Ana for the lower odds.
First time i saw the odds i said the same: no way Petrova can be such a dog against Ana. But then i realized these price should be right for both.
To make it short i say: Ana has much more confidence than Nadia now. She's one of the hottest players in a tour now, thats true, and on the other side, Nadia is not the same player as she was some time ago. You said it well: she can hit so many winners and UE's. And Im afraid she'll hit too many errors today. This is so important in my eyes, if we look at Ana's no-error game. Nadia is serving well, but those statistics you mentioned cannot be used in every match. Its all about how good an opponent can return the ball. Ana can hit the ball pretty quick. So the serve statistics should not be the same today.
 
Once again sorry for the late play and late reply. I have end-of-term examinations at my university now, so i have no possibilities to be on time before my comp.


quick comments about the later match:

Well, Venus is playing bad, but people waiting for the better play by her today. This is fourth round, and she's playing against Maria, so she has to rise her level of game! I say: fuck that. Im not going to count on her to play better than the day before. I take what ive seen yesterday, and in the first rounds. She's up and down with her serve, game, and everything. I predict Maria will win today, but the odds are not worth to take. Will decide if I take Maria to win 2-0 in sets.
 
i think Maria 2-0 is a good bet, this is her tournament and i'm pretty sure playing against a lackluster Venus, she can make a statement today. Good Luck on that bet.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
i think Maria 2-0 is a good bet, this is her tournament and i'm pretty sure playing against a lackluster Venus, she can make a statement today. Good Luck on that bet.
Click to expand...


wont play it though. These odds are crazy, no matter how bad was Venus playing. Little lose focus for Maria can cost her losing a set. I think this can be caused also Venus's up & down game. The price 2.02 on maria to win 2-0 not worth a shot imo, too much risk here. GL if you'll play it :shake:
 
BC,

you were right about Petrova. Even if Ivanovic will win now, i admit that wasnt smart decision by me to take her with that price.
 
Petrova seemed to lose it mentally after she failed at 40-15, 4-3 up, on Ivanovic's serve.

No worries, I think Vaidisova will beat her easily in the next round, and this time I'll have a lot more money going against Ivanovic.

Congrats on the win:cheers:
 
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Vaidisova over Ivanovic @1.833 (pinny) 1.5 units


will write my reasons 1 hour before the match start, as im at work now.
 
ok, why i like Nicole:

I know im going on the hot water, i dont expect an easy match here. Anyway i give more chances for Nicole to win:

- her serve with an angle is better that Ana's serve, also better percentage with first serve in, and even her second serve is dangerous;
- Ana has much more problems if she cant overpower her opponent, and Nicole wont allow to control the rallies;
- both have good return, so if Ana will not be serving better, Nicole shoudl win more points here;
- and no, i dont think Ana is mentally stronger than Nikki, if we talk about theirs nerves


thats the few quick reasons, think ive got more, but there's not too much time's left before the match.. gl
 
Songo said:
- and no, i dont think Ana is mentally stronger than Nikki, if we talk about theirs nerves
Click to expand...


that was very brutal.... oh well, looks like horrible mistake by me about theirs mentality
confused.gif
 
Vaidisova leads 40-15 on Ivanovic's serve, leading 5-3 in the 3rd. She has 2 match points AND the chance to serve out for the win if she fails with not only those 2 match points, but then in the deuce battle.

She fucks up both situations, then further loses her next service game to lose the match. When the fuck does Ivanovic run into some goddman woman who has the backbone to finish the fucking job?

Ive bet 3 women's matches this tourney....

Bondarenko lost 7 of her last 9 games in losing 6-8 in the 3rd
Petrova lost 5 of her last 6 games in losing 4-6 in the 3rd
Vaidisova lost the last 4 games in losing 5-7 in the 3rd

All obliterated after all being on the brink of winning. These arent narrow losses, these are horrendous choke jobs.
 
Songo said:
that was very brutal.... oh well, looks like horrible mistake by me about theirs mentality
confused.gif
Click to expand...


You know, when vaidisova threw away those match points on Ivanovic's serve, I said to myself it shouldnt matter because she nows serves, but I knew in my gut she would be down because she missed that chance. That dumb cow let her emotions interfere with her next service game, and so a choke was born.
 
Had to back to my thread to make recap:Mattek over Bardina @1.65 (betfair) 1 unit +0,65

Stosur over Brandi & Vesnina over Poutchkova @1.89 (gamebookers) 1 unit +0,89
Azarenka over Garbin @2.1 (betfair) 1 unit +1,10
Azarenka over Garbin @2.04 0,5 units (betfair) +0,52
Bondarenko over Schnyder @1.89 (betfair) 2 units -2,00
Bartoli +5,5 games over Jankovic @1.8 (GB) 1 unit +0,80
Ivanovic over Petrova @1.53 (betfair) 1 unit +0,53
Vaidisova over Ivanovic @1.833 (pinny) 1.5 units -1,50


recap two weeks:+1 unit
07' season record: + 6.56 units

Not surprised about Alona & Nicole choke jobs, but this cost me a lot. Think im still making mistakes in choosing the stake in my plays, and im not really sure what to change here...

will be back next week, gl to everyone
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
You know, when vaidisova threw away those match points on Ivanovic's serve, I said to myself it shouldnt matter because she nows serves, but I knew in my gut she would be down because she missed that chance. That dumb cow let her emotions interfere with her next service game, and so a choke was born.
Click to expand...


Still think Nicole is more mature player than a year ago, and although i dont like her behaviour, i believe she'll have much tougher mentality in the future. But now she's still unexperienced teenager. Anyway, I know very well what you feel, BC. Thanks for supporting me during the Wimbledon
:shake:
 
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