• PICK CLUB WEEK #1 LINES ARE POSTED!

WTA Sony Ericsson Championships @ Madrid, Spain

gpcyan3

gpcyan3

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 102-96-10 -0.16u
Last Week: 3-6 -3.28u

Another crappy week, but I hope to finish out the year strong with the season ending WTA tourament in Madrid and the ATP Master's Cup in Shanghai.

Today I'm going with:

Parlay Henin/Kuznetsova (2u to win 2.32u)

Ok Ivanovic leads this h2h right now at 3-2 but Kuz is such a better player if her game is on. I expect this one to be a 3 setter but if Kuz can just keep herself from throwing away points by hitter her forehand wide/long I think she can out manuever Ana. Ana does have 2 victories over Kuz this year, but again, Kuz is such a high quality player that I believe she will not be blanked by the Serb here.

Parlay Henin/Sharapova (2u to win 1.92u)

Ok we all know Pova's had her shoulder problems but this is her court/surface and she has done well here in the past. h2h she leads 5-1 and although these results have not been recent I cannot overlook the fact that she has dominated Daniela in the past. If she is healthy I believe Maria can take this one in 2 sets. I have not heard any bad news about her health in the tour reports and I'm hoping this is the case.

Henin to win Championships -155 (1.55u to win 1u)

Ok, I don't see anyone stopping her here or in the near future. Her group has a couple tough matchups but I think the odds on her are too good to pass up. She will be a heavy fav (200 or more, I believe) in most of the matches that will matter (excluding non-important group matches). She is also riding a very long win streak (like 20 or so) and has only lost 4 matches all season long. Granted, she has not been in that many tournaments but I like that fact as well since she will be fresh and ready to make history again by repeating her championship win.

I am also waiting on my book to release the -5.5 gameline for Henin as Chakvetadze has been in horrid form lately and I think Henin just smokes her with a bagel in one of the sets. Anna is not match fit and should pose no threat whatsoever to Henin.

Should be a couple good matches today, but the real intriguing matches (at least to me) will begin in a couple days.
 
Thanks for the good words Precise.

Gonna go with Maria today over Ana in 2.

Sharapova over Ivanovic 2-0 +225 (1u to win 2.25u)

Ana leads the h2h 2-1 and IHC is split 1-1. Ivanovic has been great at her return games this week and should apply a little pressure to Maria but Ana hasn't seen someone with the serving ability that Maria has shown this tourney and the break chances will be fewer. If Ana struggles with her 1st serve % and Maria can get some cheap points off her serve I can see this one ending in 2 tight sets going to Pova 6-4,6-4.
 
Not gonna deal with another thread for the ATP YE Tourney...

Let's hope for a good win for Henin tomorrow, even tho I dislike her alot. From the looks of it Maria seems very capable of beating her, but I'm letting it ride.

For ATP first round I like Ferrer and Nadal. Won't be playing Nadal because of injury issues that may or may not be there.

Ferrer over Djo +245 (1u to win 2.45u)

Value is definitely on my side here and Ferrer is capable of winning this group IMO.
 
Going with a couple plays today.

I think Nadal takes out Ferrer in 3 and Gasquet wins in 2 today...
I'm playing

Nadal over Ferrer -164 (1.64u to win 1u)

Gasquet wins 1st set +155 (1u to win 1.55u)

M.Damm/L.Paes over J.Erlich/A.Ram -215 (2.15u to win 1u)

Parlay Not Ferrer in 2 Sets/Damm&Paes (1.2u to win 1.04)

I don't see Damm and Paes loosing as they will probably win the double title here imo. They lead the h2h 2-1 and should prevail.
 
Interesting day yesterday... Gasquet coming thru for me, should have went ahead and played him 2-0 at odds were huge (+500)... Nadal fading away to a very good looking Ferrer. Might have been a bad call on Nadal to win outright there since I thought the value was on Ferrer just went with my gut on Nadal to somehow win it. There is no doubt in my mind that Ferrer is for real and could take this championship... He is definitely someone to watch come clay season next year IMO.
Damm/Paes cruising and should take this tournament (i think it's their last tournament together), so they will be in top form as they have shown. I really enjoy Paes play, I remember watching him a couple years ago in a mixed doubles and thinking this guy is a class act.

Anyways enough rambling for today. I like Federer to bounce back and take out Davy in straight sets 6-2, 6-4. I know matches have been tight when they have played eachother and Federer is not the type to totally blow someone off court (he wins most matches on IHC by 4-6 games, even to lower ranked players), but I think a good solid start and win is what he feels he needs. Davy's serve is soft and Roger should be able to do more with it than Andy. So with that said, I took...

Federer -5 over Davydenko -108 (2.16u to win 2u)

I like the price I'm getting here and it has moved since I placed my bet, (was waiting on it to be released on 5dimes for about an hour lol), I think this is about a 50/50 chance, but I will take Roger to pull that over the threshold for a cover.

On the Andy/Gonzo match, I'll be playing the over gameline for that. I see this one going in 2 tight sets or maybe 3. Andy taking the 1st 6-4, Gonzo the second 7-6(4), and Gonzo the third 6-3. LOL , anyways, will post the line I get once it's released.

Andy/Gonzo over 23.5 games -122 (1.22u to win 1u)
 
Dropped a unit yesterday after Fed decided to not show up. He still almost covered the spread tho serving 5-1, 30-0 in the final set...

Anyways, gonna have some plays today... gotta check out prices and such first then I'll through in some. First play is on old man bjorkman and max against the Israelis. They don't have a chance to make the semis, and the h2h is against them 1-0 but I feel they play well on this surface and did win this event last year. So even tho they have less to play for than Erlich and Ram, they should pull out the upset here imo. As long as Bjorkman doesn't self-destruct on serving DFs again, things should be very close.

Other plays will follow in a little bit. Really looking into Nadal 2-0, and parlaying Not Djo in 2/Not Gasquet in 2.

J.Bjorkman/M.Mirnyi over J.Erlich/A.Ram +130 (1u to win 1.3u)
 
So things are getting a little complicated today. Let's break it down a little. Djo is out, we know this and Nadal leads the h2h 5-2 almost all this year. Nadal is in with a win or if he takes 1set and Gasquet looses. I firmly believe Ferrer will take out Gasquet basically giving the semi to Nadal. Ferrer leads the h2h againist Gasquet 2-0 and has won in convincing fashion both times. The last encounter being only a month or so ago.

Now Djo really looks to me like he wants to go home and Nadal definitely wants to win this thing, the only problem is that Nadal's game has looked a little sluggish to me and he could faulter here if Djo decides to play well. My initial thought was to take Nadal 2-0 and Ferrer ML, but after some examination, I'm struggling to really figure out these matches and may just lay off...

ugh too bad my over in Washington blew up today with Indy shooting something like 31%...
 
Interesting match - Nadal/Djo. I actually took a little bit on Nadal 2-0 but nothing to write about.

I'm gonna go with 1 play for the later matchup.

Ferrer over Gasquet 2-1 +302 (1u to win 3.02u)

I think Gasquet takes the first set and then looses focus, with Ferrer taking the 2nd up 1 break and the third 6-1.
 
For today's matches I like Gonzo's chances to win the match against Davy, but given the h2h (3-0 to Davy) and the on/off switch that Gonzo has, I will pass on this match and just enjoy some quality tennis. Maybe something small on Davy just to make it a little interesting since value is on the Denko.

For the Roddick / Fedtrain match I want to play Andy, or at least Fed not in straights, but I wanna see what happens first in the other match. If Gonzo goes thru I might throw a little on Andy... If Davy wins, I may lay off...

I am going to follow my old buddy Jotabe today tho and go on a limb to back Nadal to win @ 6/1. Nadal hasn't looked that great so far, but as Jotabe stated, it only takes something to "click" for the great players to turn it up a notch. Andy has struggled against Nadal and if he looses 2-0 to Fed then it will be Nadal/Roddick and Fed/Ferrer, with a possible final of Nadal/Fed, and that will provide much hedging value if needed. Not to mention if Andy/Gonzo pull the upset over Fed...

Nadal to win Masters Cup Championship +600 (1u to win 6u)

Back after/during the Gonzo/Davy match with plays if any on the later matchup.
 
Actually gonna make a play on the early match. I see this one being a tight match since Gonzo really needs and win and Davy has the experience in h2h.

Going with...

Over 21.5 Games -110 (2.2u to win 2u)

Time to watch and enjoy.
 
The Over was so close in that match I could feel it, but alas Gonzo could not hold the early break and faulted in the deciding 8th? game where he saved something like 4 bps. Anyways, I'm gonna clean up this thread a little and get my YTD record updated so I see where I am in terms of ending this year on a positive.

But before that I'm gonna place my last big bet of the season on the doubles match @ 2am EST. Damm and Paes are a very solid pair and this surface suits them well. They lead the h2h 2-1 and have looked graet so far this week. I expect them to take this one in 2, but if it goes 3 I like my chances as well. I think they win this tourney and might back them in the finals if they make it there.

M.Damm/L.Paes over S.Aspelin/J.Knowle -125 (5u to win 4u)

Last large bet for the year, let's hope it's a winner.
Gonna add up with week in the next post and will breakdown the matchups as well.
 
So far these last 2 tournaments... I'm 8-5-1 +4.45u with Nadal to win the championship 6/1 pending and the above wager on Damm/Paes.

Brings my YTD tennis to... 110-101-11 +4.29u ...still holding on to a small profit.
 
Tennis YTD: 110-103-11 -1.71u

Nadal got worked and Damm/Paes played well but a couple key double faults on my boy Paes at important times ruined that match...

Gonna look at the doubles finals in the next 15 mins as well as the finals... I know Nestor/Knowles have been there at the finals the last 2 years and this is the last tournament they will play together (they got new partners for the last part of this year), but I haven't been that impressed with their play and Asp/Knowle looked good in yesterday's match...

I expect Ferrer to go the distance in the final tonight, so I am seriously gonna look into the over, but haven't made up my mind yet.

Got these 2 matches and the Davis Cup to still make this a positive year after my big 5u end of the year bet blew al my profits for these last 2 tournaments in a matter of an hour...
 
Gonna go with a play on the Canadian and Bahamian... third time is a charm, they beat Asp/Knowle earlier in round robin play and I think the price isn't too large for them to repeat. Even tho I don't think they are playing supurb, I think they have a lot more at stake here and will come up bigger as their motivation is very high.

Knowles/Nestor over Asplin/Knowle -185 (1.85u to win 1u)

I will be playing something on the Federer/Ferrer final, just not sure what yet...
 
Federer is gonna win this one in my opinion, but I give Ferrer a fighting chance to take a set... best value in my eyes would be to back Fed at 3-1, but for some reason I can't pull myself to do it yet... since Ferrer has won only 1 set out of 15 against Fedtrain. So that's 14 sets to 1 in favor of Fed, and most of these matches were on clay, which does suit Ferrer's style of play - quickfeet, angles and baseline - even tho Ferrer has been solid on faster surfaces lately... Also the only time Ferrer has taken a set was the LAST match that these 2 played (it was on clay but still...) which is a good sign for Ferrer.

Seems that since Ferrer is playing so well and is running down every shot this one will be a long one and I expect the sets to be relatively tight with only a break of serve in each and maybe even some 7-5s, and 7-6s...

But if you look at the previous h2h incounters between these 2, Fed has taken a set in outstanding fashion... eg: 6-1, 6-0, etc... but the only recent indoor match in Oct of last year, the 1st set was taken by Fed with 1 break and the second set went to a 7-6 TB...

All this leads me to believe that the over 36 games is that play here... there hasn't been a tight 3 set match in the last couple RR matches or the semis...
The over is also very high.. was expecting a little lower since Fed's h2h is 14 set to 1... but seems the books here want the public action to be on the under and, for that matter, the fed 3-0.

Ferrer is returning too well to not get chances at breaks and could steal at least 1 of these sets... if he doesn't get a set, the over is still live as we could see a TB or two, but its highly unlikely that it will go over 36 in 3. It might not even go over in 4, but if Ferrer steals one of these sets you can bet the house he will be fighting like hell and should take the next few to the brink (he won't bow out and loose 6-0 or something IMO)

Just trying to get my thoughts down on paper and to see what everyone else thinks... Seems a lot of people think Fed will roll over Ferrer in 3 straight, but I just don't know...

I really want the odds to shift a little on the over... would love for people to bet the under down and get a even or better on the over, but that might not happen...

Fed -6 looks good right away, given the previous h2hs, but I just feel that is a trap number since Gamelines for the favs have been covering the last 8 matches or so... So I might take a bite at +6 for Ferrer hoping for him to take a set and force another to a TB or at least keep them close...

Anyways, really looking at:
Over 36 games
Fed 3-1
maybe Ferrer +6

Anyone else have any insight to this match?
 
Good hit on the doubles match.

Fed. made Nadal look like a satellite player last night. Nadal was broken in game and mentally yesterday. I have Fed for the tourney, but unsure if its even worth hedging.
 
yea t-dot...
I wish I would have jumped on the Fed future when it was down to -150... I really don't think its worth hedging out, but you never know... how do you see this match playing out tonight?
 
I can see your reasoning but even if there are 2 tiebreakers the under would still hit.

Say Feds wins 6-4, 7-6, 7-6 (which I don't think will happen) your still looking at 36 games

Ferrer could even win a set and the Under would still play

Feds wins 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2

I doubt that if Feds does get behind in a set he'll actually expend effort to fight back for it. He'd be much better off dropping the set as long as it set up serve for the following set. In that case he could almost lock up holding serve for every important game he needs. Games to take set and for match point itself.
 
Ferrer's problem is that his serve isn't enough to bother Federer, who not only can adopt his usual "Chip" return but actually has the choice of when he wants to be aggressive and blast the return. Federer plays the lines so well, and unlike most other players, he is not afraid to venture to the net at will, in order to finish points off. He must do that here, as that will have Ferrer under immense pressure who would prefer the baseline rallies all day. Federer's form in his last two matches seem to be somewhat of a statement to all the doubters who were questioning his status after his opening loss to Gonzalez, and he won't let up here. I expect a relatively tough yet smooth 3 set win here for the champ.

this is from a mod over at tennisinsight.com

It really just comes down to overall level of skill. Feds is a beast and he's going to want to play fierce, efficient and smart. This will be, once again, a way to show that he's number 1 and that loss to Gonzo was just a distraction.
 
Its not about how well he Ferrer returns, its about how well he serves. Federer was just sitting back and teeing off on Nadals second serve. The topspin didnt even phase Federer.

Ferrer needs his first serve to at least seem threatening or else I smell 3-0.
 
Some good points there trainwreck... your right about the 3 set under, it's nearly impossible to hit such a high number in 3, but basically the under would translate to betting on Ferrer...

Funny thing is, as I was typing the Over36 got hit from -115 to -130 and Ferrer +6 to -127... (5dimes)

I would have thought it be the opposite but who knows, looks like they just released some more wager types on 5dimes, gonna check out the value in those...
 
Good point there t-dot. everyone seems to knock on Ferrer's serve which is weak compaired to most... just doesn't make too much of a difference in my personal opinion. He will be able to get into the rallies with his serve either way... the thing that scares me is will he be able to get enough of Federer's into the rallies... If he's getting Aced and cannot get the ball into play off Fed's 1st then there will be a big problem...
 
So you guys basically think Fed in 3...

ugh, I'm torn cuz my gut is saying that's not the play, but past stats look to heavyily point to that...
 
gpcyan3 said:
Some good points there trainwreck... your right about the 3 set under, it's nearly impossible to hit such a high number in 3, but basically the under would translate to betting on Ferrer...

Funny thing is, as I was typing the Over36 got hit from -115 to -130 and Ferrer +6 to -127... (5dimes)

I would have thought it be the opposite but who knows, looks like they just released some more wager types on 5dimes, gonna check out the value in those...
Click to expand...

you mean feds?

I don't know what people are thinking honestly. I mean none of these Over Games bets have hit during the Master this year. Its been utter whitewash for most of the entire event and if the public really thinks that the bestplayer in the world is going to be dropping a set to the Spaniard then I'm even more sold on the under.

and for that I'm much more behind Feds -5.5 -120 (thegreek.com) and they have the games 36.5 -110 both ways
 
yea, I meant Fed there trainwreck...

you're right about the sheer amount of unders hitting this week at this tourney... I think the reason being is because of the new/different surface type this year... books have yet to factor in the new surface... Last couple Master's Cups (this is off the top of my head) have been on a much faster (and more traditional when you think of IHC) surface type which would lead to less breaks of serve and higher game totals...

Good stuff about the greek's lines, I still have a couple hundred over there but haven't been checking their lines on tennis lately since they are usually way behind on value and wager types... plus that isnt really much to work with since majority of my bankroll is over at 5dimes
 
Well I just pulled the trigger... guess I'm against you guys on this one but gotta go with my gut instinct on this and I think Ferrer is just playing to solid right now.

I took

Federer to win 3-1 +232 (2u to win 4.64u)
Over 3.5 Sets -125 (1.25u to win 1u)

Hope to these hit. I might play the Ferrer GL if the odds drop a little bit... Gonna wait til a couple mins before the match to determine if it's worth it.
 
Alright one last play...

I really wanted the +6GL but I'm not gonna pay that price for it so gonna basically tye up my greek account by getting the 5.5

Ferrer +5.5 games +100 (1u to win 1u)

That should do it... hope to see a long match and a 3-1 Fed win. Enjoy watching it everyone...
 
thanks t-dot... GL to you as well, hope your Fed future cashes... GL to you too trainwreck even tho I'm agaisnt ya on this one, at least one of us win be a winner tonight ^_^
 
Just locked into 3-0 +127 for Fed.

If Ferrer does take, itll be in 5. So, Ferrer 3-2 +1175 (much smaller play).
Also got Ferrer +5.5 +101

I see a 7-6 6-4 6-4 type match.
 
Wow, Federer is putting on a clinic.

Is there a mercy rule in effect? Think I saw Ferrer's coach throw in a white towel.
 
gsm fed... 1-5 today -5.6u that was a total killing...

Ferrer really just played like shit the first 2 sets... so many UEs, oh well... shame on me to ever bet against Fed... congrats t-dot, and trainwreck.

Tennis YTD: 111-108-11 -7.31u

Hoping to finish the year on the positive with the Davis Cup...
 
I really wish you'd have taken my advice. Ferrer was an inferior opponent and it showed today. Sorry about the lost units. I know I haven't been here that long but I've been betting tennis for a few years now. That match was borderline criminal in how easy it was for Feds.

In regards to the Davis Cup, the US is taking it with conviction.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

jumper12
UFC Manchester
2
Replies
52
Views
314
pb278817
pb278817
mrpickem
FIGHT NIGHT - LEWIS VS NASCIMENTO
Replies
7
Views
211
mrpickem
mrpickem
BetCrimes1984
A walk back into the past: 2023 Women's US Open
Replies
46
Views
1K
BetCrimes1984
BetCrimes1984
Wiretowire
MLB Thursday 7/11
Replies
5
Views
160
inZane
inZane
jumper12
UFC Abu Dhabi
Replies
27
Views
175
STEED
STEED
Back
Top