Wta Charleston

[Songo]

( 06' season record: -29.86 units )
07' season record:-1.52 units
last week: + 4.5 units

posted one play this week at other site:

Pennetta over Tu @2.1 (betfair) 2 units - lost


tuesday play:

Bammer over Molik @1.31 (betfair) 2 units

At first, I wanted to play Sybille to win 2-0, but I skiped it, I just dont like an odds movement. I very rarely play such a low odds and I know some of us could be surprised about that Anyway, I cant see any other result like Sybille's win.

Alicia drawed Bam Bam in the first round, and I dont think its good for her. Sybille is the hottest player on tour now, we all know. But this is not a point im lookin for. She is the kind of player who can play from the baseline against anybody. She's very solid and gives nearly all balls back to the opponent. This is just too much for Alicia, as she's not a solid baseliner now. When the game will be open I expect not a long rallies, as Alicia is still making too many errors. Her good serve shouldnt help her too much, due t Sybille is a good returner. And Sybiller also serves well now. A solid, all kind of surface player, against a player who doesnt prefer clay-similar courts... this should be only a one winner here. GL

 

[Songo]

quick thoughts:

Ivanovic - Dulko: no problem for Ana I believe, strong serve and much more power in hands..

Dominguez-Lino - Bartoli: it seems Lourdes will win that, the public on her... wont advice anything here, I dont know LDL...

Peer - Zheng: Shahar will probably win, she felt at the practice, but she's ok now..

Medina-Garrigues - Schiavone: I have the feeling it sounds like a no bet match, dont know what will happen here, but if I would take somthin here it would be Anabel with the better price for sho..


Rezai over Srebotnik @ 2.58 (betfair) 1 unit

Small play, I disagree with those odds, as I think Aravanne has more chances to win it. She's very dangerous player on that kind of surface, quite good movement, a killer shots and e decent serve. I cant risk more here, cuz Aravanne isnt a consistent player yet, making a lot UE's here and there. Anyway Katerina's form seems to be suspicious for me.

GL to all

 

[rod_steel]

GL DT - looking forward to the clay masters coming up and then of course the French Open :cheers:

 

[Songo]

GL DT - looking forward to the clay masters coming up and then of course the French Open :cheers:

love this time of the year when the clay season is open... cheers for now, Rod :cheers:

 

[Songo]

Zvonareva over Ivanovic @1.79 (betfair) 1.5 units

First of all, im late with this play, an odds downed a lot...

Vera plays the better tennis now, thats fact. Ana isnt a consistent player as of late. Her serve's working fine, but she's making many ue's here and there: in a return, in an open battle, and in a simple, quick shots also. To beat Vera you have to be very solid from the baseline, as she is a good on the defense. She lost some weight, and she has the better footwork now. I think this is a key for this game: maybe Vera has not the same power as Ana, but these are slower courts, and the main thing is to be a solid defender. Ana serves better, but Vera has a decent serve too,so I dont see any difference in this aspect of the game. Small/medium play for me on Vera. GL

 

[claycourtlesson]

Tennis on the dirt.....the real tennis.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Well in on Bepa, DT. Was on her myself after reading your write-up, man.

Cheers

 

[Songo]

Jelena Jankovic to win Cherleston @5.00 (betfair) 1 unit


If she'll win over Srebotnik, I will hedge when she'll play against Williams....
will defend my bet later...

 

[Songo]

ok, JJ won over Katerina, as I said I'll hedge that bet. I wrote that this will be against Venus, but I have to rethink other ways as well, so havent decided yet.

JJ although her poor serve is a player u could easly trust this year. This is the main point Im lookin in my cappin now. Two matches left for JJ for the tittle now. Venus who is her next opponent, is looking for her confidence back. Still her game isnt on that level to beat a top players, thats my opinion. A strong serve will not help her against Jelena, as JJ is a great returner. This will give an open battles, and im sure more rallies will win Jelena. Venus is hitting well, but sometimes with not so good accuracy, and too many balls flyes too long out of the baseline. JJ likes long rallies, and I always prefer to bet on a better baseliner.
On the other side we have Vera, Tati, and Dinara. maybe I'll decide to hedge this play above just in the final. The first thing I always considering in the finals is "this is the most important match in the tourney and both of the players who will play here must have been playing well for all week, thats why they are here - everything can happen".
Im afraid that Vera can caused big problems for Jelena. Vera hasnt won anything this year, and this is always a big risk playing against that kind of player.

will make my decision tomorrow

 

[Songo]

Williams over Jankovic @2.18 (betfair) 1 unit

I catched really nice odds on JJ to win Charleston, so I can hedge my play now. An odds on Venus are rising, and I can take a nice price for her. If she'll win, I still be a winner, and in the case JJ advance to the final, I'll hedge my bet again. An odds on Vera/Dinara will be higher than on JJ, so u know I will be happy again. The worst scenario for me now is, if Venus win tonight. Will take what my luck gives me, but im not a greedy person. GL if u followed me

 

[Songo]

Safina over Jankovic @ 3 (betfair) 2 units

I was waiting for the better odds till now...

Quick thougths:

- with that high odds this is a "must take" for me,
- I give Dinara at least the same chances to win,
- Dinara love this surface, serves well, and hits with confidence,
- there are bad conditions there, so this is more a toss up

 

[Songo]

forgot to say this is a hedge of my bet - JJ to win Charleston...

some mathematics:

If JJ win:

1 x 5 = 5 - 1 = 4 units + ( - 1 unit: V. Williams over JJ - 2 units: Safina over JJ ) = + 1 unit

if JJ lose:

- 1 unit: JJ to win + ( - 1 unit V.Williams over JJ ) + 4 units: Safina over JJ = + 2 units


Ok, im enjoying the match now....

 

[Songo]

Well, I can be only angry on myself, I could win 4 units on that play on JJ, but finally won only 1, because of my hedging. I had some bad feelings yesterday, and I think they didnt disappointed me, as the match against Venus was a coin toss, but today I did a mistake with a play on Dinara. Anyway those kind of bets are a new thing for me, so my luck of experience very limited my price here. That was a leason, but you'll see more plays like that from me in the future. GL to all next week.

recap this week:

Pennetta over Tu @2.1 (betfair) 2 units - lost -2
Bammer over Molik @1.31 (betfair) 2 units - won + 0.62
Rezai over Srebotnik @ 2.58 (betfair) 1 unit - lost - 1
Zvonareva over Ivanovic @1.79 (betfair) 1.5 units - won + 1.16
Jelena Jankovic to win Cherleston @5.00 (betfair) 1 unit - won + 4
Williams over Jankovic @2.18 (betfair) 1 unit - lost - 1
Safina over Jankovic @ 3 (betfair) 2 units - lost -2


all week: - 0.22 units

will be back for one week when J&S Cup at Warsaw will open, or will make some single play this Fed Cup week

 

[gpcyan3]

Not a bad week at all Songo...

Just a couple plays that could have went either way.

Either way, you are making the right judgements - their just not hitting for ya yet. Keep up the grind.