WPG/EDM Series

[Zeke]

I haven't watched much of this series at all. Any time this 3-0 series situation presents itself I like to play the team up 3-0 and chase if need be til they close it. Some pros & cons to this one, love to get some thoughts. It's always a mental struggle as to whether or not to play game four or wait to see if there's a game five & fire away then. Curious what the percentages are on teams closing it in four versus not.

PROS
EDM must be slightly deflated after blowing a 4-1 3rd P lead in a "must win" game
WPG is even money right now for tonight which usually is not the case when a team is up 3-0

CONS
I don't trust any of the teams from the North Division
EDM must be embarrassed & should be hungry for a win & to not get swept

 

[gsro]

WPG will be dogs throughout the rest of the series in each of their game and each time they lose the price will continue to drive up. I am with you, I've never really seen 3-0 team become dogs in their next game but Winnipeg should be flying high and they have a good coach that likes to go for the juggular.

No amount of embarrassment is going to save that d or goaltending issues. Literally Drais/McDavid have to get 3+ each in terms of points. I think your judgement on the North has some recency bias in there with the leafs as that would likely be the only real team you've had to watch with your beloved B's in the playoffs in recent years and probably natural hate for the Habs. So that in itself I can understand why no one trusts someone from the North, but rest assured this Leafs team is much different now, game 2 showed it. Let's not forget the B's blowing a 3-0 series lead against the Flyers (they were the third team to do this in the history of the playoffs) as part of their growing pains before they started to win consistently. To beat Winnipeg you need net front presence, what used to work against the leafs was to hit but now you have Matthews averaging 4.4 hits, added Simmonds and Foligno etc.

 

[Zeke]

We can bash each other's team in a different thread, haha. I know that neither of us are big fans but let's put that aside while we try to look for some winners.

And yes I recall that 3-0 collapse quite well thank you. And that is the risk with using a chase mentality. It's not so bad if they are dogged in each game but when they are the faves & you get to a game 6 it can get expensive trying to win back that initial wager.

Yes recent bias has something to do with it for sure. It probably also had something to do with my way of picking bad spots when betting the North Division this year.

I think with the game being tonight it helps WPG more than EDM because they should still be flying high while quite possibly EDM is still in a funk.

 

[gsro]

We can bash each other's team in a different thread, haha. I know that neither of us are big fans but let's put that aside while we try to look for some winners.

And yes I recall that 3-0 collapse quite well thank you. And that is the risk with using a chase mentality. It's not so bad if they are dogged in each game but when they are the faves & you get to a game 6 it can get expensive trying to win back that initial wager.

Yes recent bias has something to do with it for sure. It probably also had something to do with my way of picking bad spots when betting the North Division this year.

I think with the game being tonight it helps WPG more than EDM because they should still be flying high while quite possibly EDM is still in a funk.

wasn't bashing the B's; actually think they've done a formidable job. Taylor Hall took them from a 1 line threat to a 2 line threat which makes things easier on everyone else and you lost Krug and Chara after having considerable roles. The 3-0 blown lead was more an example that teams have to go through the growing pains to really excel which is what really spurred the development of that core and now we're finally seeing with the leafs. Washington went through similar growing pains. I think everyone saw how Chicago had so much success and thought it could be replicated but let's be honest... they had the likes of Hossa, Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp, Versteeg and later on Panarin, Saad.

That said, this is the year that the buds need to make it deep else the talks about being young and immature gets real. You can't dominate the North division and then not make it out, that's unacceptable.

I am okay chasing the 3-0 WPG game by game. I agree the quick turnaround keeps the momentum with the Jets and I'm hoping to cash in. Just don't remember the last time a team up 3-0 was dogged in the fourth game, and likely every game here on out.

 

[gsro]

much to Leaf fans chagrin, no real hate for other teams for me.

 

[Zeke]

much to Leaf fans chagrin, no real hate for other teams for me.

Not even Montreal? I thought everyone outside of Montreal hated them? I have a place in my heart for all of the original six, except Montreal.

And the Rangers, can't route for NY teams.

I'm thinking when TB got swept by CBJ, TB would've been the fave in game 4 & also PIT dropping four straight to NYI may have made that list.