MLB Special Bets: World Series MVP Pick
Like with any future bet in which there is a large number of possible winners, I think the most important initial tactic is to do some process of elimination. This way, we make our realistic pool of candidates smaller and locate more value in the odds.
We can start out by ruling one team’s players entirely. There has been only one World Series MVP who played for the losing team and that came in 1960, which means that the last 60 World Series MVPs played for the winning team.
The Astros are favored at -225 to win the World Series and, without going too much into it, I think they are absolutely the most realistic candidate to win.
Both teams have some stud starting pitchers. But, in the second half of the season, Washington produced the fourth-worst bullpen by ERA while Houston’s bullpen was the best.
Basic and advanced stats also point to Houston having a stronger lineup. For example, its regular season slugging rate was .495, .41 higher than Washington’s.
Lastly, Houston has experience. The moment is evidently not too big for it as the Astros won in 2017. Conversely, this is the first World Series trip for Washington.
So our MVP winner will be either a hitter or pitcher from Houston.
The question then becomes: which hitter is most likely and which pitcher is most likely.
Looking at Houston’s lineup, a number of players don’t show great form. In fact, only three Astro batters are producing a BA over .262.
Those three batters Jake Marisnick, Martin Maldonado, and Jose Altuve. Marisnick and Maldonado are not known to be great hitters and they’ve achieved their current postseason BA in a limited number of at-bats.
Altuve, on the contrary, is a stalwart in Houston’s lineup. In 43 at-bats— tied for second most on the team so far — he’s hitting .347 and slugging .767. Right now, he is far and away Houston’s top hitter.
I also like Altuve because the moment is definitely not too big for him. He was a part of Houston’s lineup when it won the World Series in 2017 and, more than most, he’s proven himself to be a clutch hitter — the best proof of something being possible comes from that something already having actually happened.
One example of Altuve’s being clutch is in Houston’s last game. With his team tied 4-4 in the bottom of the 9th while facing hard-throwing Yankee closer Aroldis Chapman, Altuve hit a two-run home run both to win the game and to clinch the ALCS for Houston.
Being clutch is important because, in addition to overall statistical performance, it’s proven to be an important factor in World Series MVP voting. Many recent MVPs were clutch with Chicago’s Ben Zobrist being one example as he hit the go-ahead hit in 2017 for his Cubs.
Altuve should thrive against National pitching. In particular, he’s already 2-for-5 (.400) in his career against Stephen Strasburg and 4-for-11 (.364) against Anibal Sanchez. He’ll also get opportunities against Washington’s lower-tiered bullpen to pad his numbers.
In terms of pitching, starter Gerrit Cole has been most dominant for Houston. He currently boasts a 0.40 postseason ERA.
Still, pitchers are a much rarer MVP choice. In this decade, only one pitcher won the honors and that was Madison Bumgarner in 2014.
Bumgarner also made some crucial relief appearances, which I don’t think Cole will make because Houston has an elite bullpen and can rely on guys like Ryan Pressly and Will Harris without overusing Cole.
The odds currently have Jose Altuve as the second-most favored player to win World Series MVP. +700 is a nice price at which to take him.
Best Bet: Jose Altuve To Win MVP at +700 With BetOnline
Like with any future bet in which there is a large number of possible winners, I think the most important initial tactic is to do some process of elimination. This way, we make our realistic pool of candidates smaller and locate more value in the odds.
We can start out by ruling one team’s players entirely. There has been only one World Series MVP who played for the losing team and that came in 1960, which means that the last 60 World Series MVPs played for the winning team.
The Astros are favored at -225 to win the World Series and, without going too much into it, I think they are absolutely the most realistic candidate to win.
Both teams have some stud starting pitchers. But, in the second half of the season, Washington produced the fourth-worst bullpen by ERA while Houston’s bullpen was the best.
Basic and advanced stats also point to Houston having a stronger lineup. For example, its regular season slugging rate was .495, .41 higher than Washington’s.
Lastly, Houston has experience. The moment is evidently not too big for it as the Astros won in 2017. Conversely, this is the first World Series trip for Washington.
So our MVP winner will be either a hitter or pitcher from Houston.
The question then becomes: which hitter is most likely and which pitcher is most likely.
Looking at Houston’s lineup, a number of players don’t show great form. In fact, only three Astro batters are producing a BA over .262.
Those three batters Jake Marisnick, Martin Maldonado, and Jose Altuve. Marisnick and Maldonado are not known to be great hitters and they’ve achieved their current postseason BA in a limited number of at-bats.
Altuve, on the contrary, is a stalwart in Houston’s lineup. In 43 at-bats— tied for second most on the team so far — he’s hitting .347 and slugging .767. Right now, he is far and away Houston’s top hitter.
I also like Altuve because the moment is definitely not too big for him. He was a part of Houston’s lineup when it won the World Series in 2017 and, more than most, he’s proven himself to be a clutch hitter — the best proof of something being possible comes from that something already having actually happened.
One example of Altuve’s being clutch is in Houston’s last game. With his team tied 4-4 in the bottom of the 9th while facing hard-throwing Yankee closer Aroldis Chapman, Altuve hit a two-run home run both to win the game and to clinch the ALCS for Houston.
Being clutch is important because, in addition to overall statistical performance, it’s proven to be an important factor in World Series MVP voting. Many recent MVPs were clutch with Chicago’s Ben Zobrist being one example as he hit the go-ahead hit in 2017 for his Cubs.
Altuve should thrive against National pitching. In particular, he’s already 2-for-5 (.400) in his career against Stephen Strasburg and 4-for-11 (.364) against Anibal Sanchez. He’ll also get opportunities against Washington’s lower-tiered bullpen to pad his numbers.
In terms of pitching, starter Gerrit Cole has been most dominant for Houston. He currently boasts a 0.40 postseason ERA.
Still, pitchers are a much rarer MVP choice. In this decade, only one pitcher won the honors and that was Madison Bumgarner in 2014.
Bumgarner also made some crucial relief appearances, which I don’t think Cole will make because Houston has an elite bullpen and can rely on guys like Ryan Pressly and Will Harris without overusing Cole.
The odds currently have Jose Altuve as the second-most favored player to win World Series MVP. +700 is a nice price at which to take him.
Best Bet: Jose Altuve To Win MVP at +700 With BetOnline
