World Series Game 1

[tee*dub]

since 7/28 Posted on CTG

42-19, (+40,305)--- ML, RL and Totals

__________________________________________________

6-2 in the playoffs. Dropped to 69% during the stretch.. Wanted to finish at 70% and +80 units so have to be very selective now.

Game one may be my best opportunity so I am rolling with it.

Phillies -113, 4 units WIN

(note I also have a small play on the phillies at +125 for the series. looking to middle that perhaps after Phils win game one but we'll see)

Looked at this closely for a couple days.. I'll give you the high points and be around awhile if there is any discussion.

• I will start by saying I believe Cole Hamels is by far the best pitcher in this series (maybe not the BEST pitcher, but the best pitcher for this series.
• He is extremely consistent which I love in the playoffs because it almost always translates.. 3 starts in the playoffs, into the 7th in all 3, 22IP, 22 K's, 3 ER and only one HR.
• The young hitters for Tampa are at a big , big disadvantage IMO. Hamels is a changeup machine. He can throw it for a strike to get ahead in the count and he can throw it out of the strike zone and baffle hitters.. Note the 22 k's in 22 innings .. Most on the changeup.
• Summarizing Hamels- I am comfortable he goes deep and gives up less than 3 ers. That is important in my handicapping style.. Very comfortable with that assumption.
• Lidge at the back end is also comforting to me.. 41 for 41 saves
• Now Kazmir.. not real consistent and he does not go deep. In his last 15 starts 9 times he did not throw a pitch in the 6th inning. Even when he is effective like his last start v. Boston, he was out after 6 inning and a whopping 111 pitches.. We know what happened next..

Lineups-- both good which is why they are here.. Let me just say this I like my lineup vs Kaz a whole lot better than the Rays v. Hamels..

I am making this bet because I feel I have a pitching advantage.. Rolling with it.. we'll see.

:cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

Does a small play equal 2 units?

 

[tee*dub]

Does a small play equal 2 units?

1 unit

<TABLE class=TableReport cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=TableReportTD noWrap>60704599-1</TD><TD class=TableReportTD noWrap>10/20/2008 11:51 PM</TD><TD class=TableReportTD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD class=TableReportTD align=right>500.00</TD><TD class=TableReportTD align=right>625.00</TD><TD class=TableReportTD>Baseball - 991 Phillies Series Price +125 for Game</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[tee*dub]

Does a small play equal 2 units?

Also, not as crazy about the Phils for the series as I was earlier but +125 is good value IMO.. I'll get a plus number on the Rays if the Phillies win Game 1 and I will determine then whether I stay on the series or grab the Ray plus number.. Small play so not something I will anguish over..

 

[chancedog]

If you had TB for even money right now, what would you do with it ?

 

[tee*dub]

If you had TB for even money right now, what would you do with it ?

If it were me I would stick with my gut. I never buy off my original play unless I find something out later that I wasn't aware of , which is rare.

Having said that:

I think Hamels wins this game 7 out of 10 times but that is just my opinion bro.. 4 units bets for me are hitting around 70% for a pretty long stretch, but as I have stated over in the CFB thread, I am due to have a correction.. 70% is not sustainable..

Lots of guys I respect are on the other side, so keep that in mind.

 

[stunna808]

gl tee!

any thoughts on the total?

 

[tee*dub]

gl tee!

any thoughts on the total?

number is about right but small small lean on the under.

 

[greenmon$ter]

Agreed. Think Philly take tonight's game and Moyer's game. Then watch out for some of that Rays destiny/magic thing they have going.

(Correction schmorrection, keep it going Tee)

 

[Marlo]

Do run lines hit very often in baseball?

Philly -1.5?

Also If I bet Hamels ML, it doesnt matter if he is the winning pitcher or if someone else wins, as long as the Phils do I win right?

 

[tee*dub]

Do run lines hit very often in baseball?

Philly -1.5?

Also If I bet Hamels ML, it doesnt matter if he is the winning pitcher or if someone else wins, as long as the Phils do I win right?

are you being serious bro?

 

[Marlo]

Dude I dont bet bases, ever!

 

[buckeyeburritos]

Dude I dont bet bases, ever!

haha just wantin some WS action. i feel u

 

[buckeyeburritos]

i don't think i'm going to try and bet these games separately. I think the rays win the series, so i'm about to take them for the series that way i can root for them every game. That way i don't have to have action on every game.

 

[buckeyeburritos]

oh and good health tee

 

[Marlo]

haha just wantin some WS action. i feel u

Just game 1, GF usually gets her quality time tonight, she pissed me off. So yep looking for a little action, while I pound a few back.:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

Dude I dont bet bases, ever!

OK, sorry...

You always bet which team you think will win in baseball and the ML works the same as in Football.. If the team wins you win.. With pitchers you can either list them or play action.. With a guy like Hamels you want to list list him which means he must start for your bet to be in play.. Its rare but lets say he pulls in muscle warming up before the game and can't start.. In that case, if you list him and he doesn't start the bet is void..

Runlines are tricky and something I rarely mess with.. Somepeeps use them to reduce juice on big chalk games. I disagree that it reduces chalk-- it just places the vig in a different place, but that is a whole different discussion... Now getting Hamel at +150ish at -1.5 may seem like a decent play (if you really like Hamels, and I do) but keep in mind in a game that is expected to be low scoring, (7.5 total) winning by 2 runs is a lot to ask.. I would stay away from RLs but that is just my opinion.. Lots of guys around here play them but they are pretty rare on pk em games like this...

If you like the Phils play them ML and list Hamels.. If the phils win , you win..

Didn't mean to minimize your question.. Actually I know the feeling.. When Satyr starts rattling shit off on Futball or whatever they call it over there I am clueless..

GL if you play

 

[Marlo]

OK, sorry...

You always bet which team you think will win in baseball and the ML works the same as in Football.. If the team wins you win.. With pitchers you can either list them or play action.. With a guy like Hamels you want to list list him which means he must start for your bet to be in play.. Its rare but lets say he pulls in muscle warming up before the game and can't start.. In that case, if you list him and he doesn't start the bet is void..

Runlines are tricky and something I rarely mess with.. Somepeeps use them to reduce juice on big chalk games. I disagree that it reduces chalk-- it just places the vig in a different place, but that is a whole different discussion... Now getting Hamel at +150ish at -1.5 may seem like a decent play (if you really like Hamels, and I do) but keep in mind in a game that is expected to be low scoring, (7.5 total) winning by 2 runs is a lot to ask.. I would stay away from RLs but that is just my opinion.. Lots of guys around here play them but they are pretty rare on pk em games like this...

If you like the Phils play them ML and list Hamels.. If the phils win , you win..

Didn't mean to minimize your question.. Actually I know the feeling.. When Satyr starts rattling shit off on Futball or whatever they call it over there I am clueless..

GL if you play

Thanks buddy, I appreciate the response. I wanted to ask before I bet.

Was thinking about the run line, but even I realized reading through peoples threads how good these pitchers are and a 4-3 game does nothing for me.

Now get your NCAA bets in.

 

[tee*dub]

Just game 1, GF usually gets her quality time tonight, she pissed me off. So yep looking for a little action, while I pound a few back.:cheers:

What are you drinking tonight? Crown and coke here.. Thinking about firing up some popcorn also.. Old man foodopcorn:

I really enjoy the world series and even though I like the Phils here I am anxious to see how the Rays play on the big stage..

 

[RambleOn]

:smiley_acbe:

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck but Disagree. Although not confident enough to pound Kazmir either . Hamels has been good in the playoffs because he matched up well and think he will give up 3 runs at a minimum here...Seriously though Good Luck its 1 game ...

 

[wiseplayer]

Lets hope for a great 7 games. Nothing better than postseason baseball if the series are close. GL!

 

[tee*dub]

Now get your NCAA bets in.

:thumbsuprobably be Friday before I get a handle on the final plays.. Waiting on alot of injury updates etc. this week.. Rutgers plus the big number is on the top of the list tho.. Momentum win last week and their defense is playing at a high level now IMO.. Donald Brown held to just 6 yards on 11 carries in 2H lw.. got 4 units in now @ +10, -120.. May add..:cheers: Like a few others but thats a big one and afraid Bob might knock it down, so locked it in early.. More later on it in CFB forum.

 

[chancedog]

Thanks Tee obviously I'll be rooting for the Rays but will have a crown and coke in your honor passing on the popcorn though opcorn:

 

[RambleOn]

Speaking of NCAA..... any thoughts on Kansas, Ole Miss, or North Texas? Liking all three right now a lot. If you don't want this to hijack your thread just send me a pm or answer in your own thread when you start one. GL tonight bro. I'm staying at the Hyatt in downtown Houston for the next 6 weeks on business - raining here and the fucking cable just went out. So mad. :hang:

 

[MrMulligan]

Embarrassed to be a Floridian...Back Street Boys....:seeya:
Rays (and their cowbell ringing "fans")...going to get shutdown by Cole Hamels...:shake:

 

[tee*dub]

Thanks Tee obviously I'll be rooting for the Rays but will have a crown and coke in your honor passing on the popcorn though opcorn:

:Cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

Speaking of NCAA..... any thoughts on Kansas, Ole Miss, or North Texas? Liking all three right now a lot. If you don't want this to hijack your thread just send me a pm or answer in your own thread when you start one. GL tonight bro. I'm staying at the Hyatt in downtown Houston for the next 6 weeks on business - raining here and the fucking cable just went out. So mad. :hang:

I was in Houston the last two days.. JW marriott in Galleria... Head to Trulucks on Westheimer bro.. I know you like oysters and the Stone crab is excellent now..Trust me... Eat in the bar, and watch the game.. Been there done that many times.. Usually some live mellow music..

 

[tee*dub]

Speaking of NCAA..... any thoughts on Kansas, Ole Miss, or North Texas? Liking all three right now a lot. If you don't want this to hijack your thread just send me a pm or answer in your own thread when you start one. GL tonight bro. I'm staying at the Hyatt in downtown Houston for the next 6 weeks on business - raining here and the fucking cable just went out. So mad. :hang:

sent you a PM

 

[RambleOn]

I was in Houston the last two days.. JW marriott in Galleria... Head to Trulucks on Westheimer bro.. I know you like oysters and the Stone crab is excellent now..Trust me... Eat in the bar, and watch the game.. Been there done that many times.. Usually some live mellow music..

Yes, love oysters. I'll check that place out tomorrow. TV actually just came back on.

Haven't gotten the PM maybe it's making its way. :shake:

 

[Marlo]

Looking good so far. Man baseball is boring

 

[tee*dub]

Looking good so far. Man baseball is boring

:36_11_6:

Its an aquired taste.

Going as scripted so far.. Both team missed some opps but Cole looks like Cole:smiley_acbe:

 

[tee*dub]

Summarizing Hamels- I am comfortable he goes deep and gives up less than 3 ers. That is important in my handicapping style.. Very comfortable with that assumption.

:smiley_acbe:

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left width="37%">Pitchers</TD><TD width="7%">IP</TD><TD width="6%">H</TD><TD width="6%">R</TD><TD width="6%">ER</TD><TD width="6%">BB</TD><TD width="6%">SO</TD><TD width="7%">HR</TD><TD width="12%">PC-ST</TD><TD width="7%">ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>C Hamels</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>102-66</TD><TD>2.57</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[RambleOn]

:smiley_acbe:

Another successful tail. Congrats.

 

[Blue_Chip]

The fact that Philly stranded 11 runners and were 0-12 w/ RISP pissed me off, but Cole is the man and we got the cash.. and that's what matters

 

[SportsNut]

Good hit and call Tee . Make the same assumptions in all sports it is very useful . Nice work .

 

[SportsNut]

The fact that Philly stranded 11 runners and were 0-12 w/ RISP pissed me off, but Cole is the man and we got the cash.. and that's what matters

Stats are overrated or manipulated by to many . Not saying you but would you rather have 1 or 2 singles with a man in RISP or a HR with a man on 1st ?

All semantics....:shake:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thank your my friend you are the best

 

[Marlo]

TEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


money;:drinking::7_17_4::5_5_138::7_2_111::23_32_9::hammer::7_5_140:

 

[tee*dub]

The fact that Philly stranded 11 runners and were 0-12 w/ RISP pissed me off, but Cole is the man and we got the cash.. and that's what matters

If I am not mistaken think Howard had a guy at third with less than 2 outs 3 times and struck out all three..... but as you say Cole was Cole and that was the bet... Congrats guys:cheers:

By the way-- anyone have the stat handy for the world series.. Team that wins game 1 on the road is a very high percent I believe.. Can't seem to locate it without a lot of work..:shake:

 

[Blue_Chip]

By the way-- anyone have the stat handy for the world series.. Team that wins game 1 on the road is a very high percent I believe.. Can't seem to locate it without a lot of work..

I would need to delve deeper into the stats, but I know the winner of game 1 has won the last 5 world series and won 10 of the last 11 world series.

Also, I read today Philly was 0-13 w/ RISP not 0-12.. regardless, they suck ass when RISP..

 

[tee*dub]

I would need to delve deeper into the stats, but I know the winner of game 1 has won the last 5 world series and won 10 of the last 11 world series.

Also, I read today Philly was 0-13 w/ RISP not 0-12.. regardless, they suck ass when RISP..

Winning Game 1 is important, but winning game 1 on the road is even more telling I believe in terms of past results..

 

[tee*dub]

Got Phils for the series +125 and now can get Rays +130:4_12_12:

 

[Blue_Chip]

Got Phils for the series +125 and now can get Rays +130:4_12_12:

I got Phils last night just before first pitch at +132 and I saw Rays +136 this morning, so I middled it. We can only see Hamels so many times (2-3), but we have to see that deplorable hitting from the Phils every game. I don't want my money on that.

 

[tee*dub]

I got Phils last night just before first pitch at +132 and I saw Rays +136 this morning, so I middled it. We can only see Hamels so many times (2-3), but we have to see that deplorable hitting from the Phils every game. I don't want my money on that.

You got a better middle than me and I don't have much money on it so I may let it ride...Lets walk through this... I think Rays win tonight. So 1-1 heading to Philly with Hamels lurking in Game 4.. If Rays when tonight I think they make it a pick for the series which is what it should have been to begin with. Then I think Rays go up 2-1 And at that point Phils jump to +150 or higher, Which I would play with Hamels on tap to tie it up at 2-2..

I see this series going back and forth.. RambleON should have a bunch of arb opps if he is on the series..

I don't think I'll see the Rays at plus money again until perhaps game 5 so should probably middle now.. Can always start a new one one later..

I do not have a feel who wins this series but I knew +125 on the phils was a stupid number with Hamels in game one which is why I grabbed it. So sticking with my plan... Just talking out loud here guys..

Middled it.. Phils +125, Rays +130.. locking in a fractional unit of profit..

Looking for a plus number on the Phils again after game 3 and will play it if it is there--- unless something changes.

 

[Blue_Chip]

You got a better middle than me and I don't have much money on it so I may let it ride...Lets walk through this... I think Rays win tonight. So 1-1 heading to Philly with Hamels lurking in Game 4.. If Rays when tonight I think they make it a pick for the series which is what it should have been to begin with. Then I think Rays go up 2-1 And at that point Phils jump to +150 or higher, Which I would play with Hamels on tap to tie it up at 2-2..

I see this series going back and forth.. RambleON should have a bunch of arb opps if he is on the series..

I don't think I'll see the Rays at plus money again until perhaps game 5 so should probably middle now.. Can always start a new one one later..

I do not have a feel who wins this series but I knew +125 on the phils was a stupid number with Hamels in game one which is why I grabbed it. So sticking with my plan... Just talking out loud here guys..

Middled it.. Phils +125, Rays +130.. locking in a fractional unit of profit..

Looking for a plus number on the Phils again after game 3 and will play it if it is there--- unless something changes.

I like your reasoning. I think Myers wins a start in this series. Assuming that winning start is not tonight, we get Phils plus money after game 3, then if Myers gets his win in game 5 (assuming Blanton does not disrupt the rotation), we have a 3-2 Phils advantage in the series and we can make one last middle on Tampa before game 6 hoping for them to try it up at 3-3 when they return to the Trop.

 

[Satyr]

great job Tee, as per usual

:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

great job Tee, as per usual

:cheers:

Thanks Satyr... How is Hockey going.. Haven't been paying attn... Give me one to tail you on

 

[zsbob9]

What do you think about the game tonight Tee...got to think the Rays tie it up tonight, no?

 

[tee*dub]

What do you think about the game tonight Tee...got to think the Rays tie it up tonight, no?

not playing tonight but yes I see a back and forth series, but just have no good angle to find the right side... Not sure I'll have another play in the series to be honest.. Maybe Hamels next start