World Series Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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Dodgers -1.5 Games at -120
Blue Jays +1.5 Games at -110

Ohtani MVP at +175
 
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Game 1, Toronto been relaxing, Seattle just played, Seattle takes first 2...

I see same thing here. dodgers been chillin, Toronto been playing,

Game 1 Toronto +134 @ Home.
 
twinkie13 said:
Anyone playing Series bet 1st?
I kind of like the Jays
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Interesting series actually

LAD have big starting pitcher edge (Snell and Ohtani CAN dominate but Jays don't K often), both BPs leave a lot to be desired at the moment, both offenses are obviously very good

If nothing else it sets up nicely for some entertaining late game situations if it plays out that way
 
If that happens it should set up some great live dog opportunities in the middle innings. Hope so!
 
I think snell and yamamoto are a better 1-2 punch than whatever toronto rolls out there (gausman/yesavage). Howrver, much will be talked about, rightfully so, of their dominance in yhe nlcs vs the brewers.

This toronto lineup did quite well against what was a quality sea pitching lineup, so yhe opportunity to score runs should be yhere.

As much as i can say thus far, i think at worst, they split the opening 2 at home. Ill be on toronto at that nice dog price for gm 1
 
slim5150 said:
I think snell and yamamoto are a better 1-2 punch than whatever toronto rolls out there (gausman/yesavage). Howrver, much will be talked about, rightfully so, of their dominance in yhe nlcs vs the brewers.

This toronto lineup did quite well against what was a quality sea pitching lineup, so yhe opportunity to score runs should be yhere.

As much as i can say thus far, i think at worst, they split the opening 2 at home. Ill be on toronto at that nice dog price for gm 1
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Yeah no expert but Dodgers just too expensive to bet. Plus I really want Jay's to win. Gl
 
Jays are undervalued here. Mostly because they have a lot of no name guys playing well and they are solid from 1-9 with no real easy outs. Snell is pitching game one. Jays took down Rodon and Fried. Rodon pitched like trash but Fried actually pitched well. The Jays just wore him down. I see the same thing happening here. Snell is a guy who can walk a lot and longevity is not his thing. Get to the Dodgers BP early in game one and set the tone for the rest of the series. The path to victory for the Jays is to win both Snell games and compete in the rest against the righties, hoping to take it to game 6 and 7 back home where anything can happen.

Look at how George Kirby pitched in game 7. The lines say he did okay. Anyone who has seen Kirby pitch knows that was not a typical Kirby start. The highest K/BB ratio pitcher of all time was getting behind hitters and missing his spots. He was clearly frazzled the first couple of innings. Dan Wilson took him out after 4 just as he was settling in. That's what the Jays do to a pitcher and a manager. Good pitching beats good hitting. That adage is reversed with this team. The only SP with good results against the Jays this post-season has been Bryce Miller, who had the worst regular season of the bunch.

If this goes down to a game 7, it's because the Jays slugged their way there and did so early in each game. Then Dave Roberts is staring down a rotation of 5 ERA guys, wondering who the hell does he trust in game 7?
 
gamer said:
Jays are undervalued here. Mostly because they have a lot of no name guys playing well and they are solid from 1-9 with no real easy outs. Snell is pitching game one. Jays took down Rodon and Fried. Rodon pitched like trash but Fried actually pitched well. The Jays just wore him down. I see the same thing happening here. Snell is a guy who can walk a lot and longevity is not his thing. Get to the Dodgers BP early in game one and set the tone for the rest of the series. The path to victory for the Jays is to win both Snell games and compete in the rest against the righties, hoping to take it to game 6 and 7 back home where anything can happen.

Look at how George Kirby pitched in game 7. The lines say he did okay. Anyone who has seen Kirby pitch knows that was not a typical Kirby start. The highest K/BB ratio pitcher of all time was getting behind hitters and missing his spots. He was clearly frazzled the first couple of innings. Dan Wilson took him out after 4 just as he was settling in. That's what the Jays do to a pitcher and a manager. Good pitching beats good hitting. That adage is reversed with this team. The only SP with good results against the Jays this post-season has been Bryce Miller, who had the worst regular season of the bunch.

If this goes down to a game 7, it's because the Jays slugged their way there and did so early in each game. Then Dave Roberts is staring down a rotation of 5 ERA guys, wondering who the hell does he trust in game 7?
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Great stuff, enjoy the series and go Jays!
 
Let's say you think it goes 7 games. Or you think 5.

Let's say you think Toronto wins the WS!

But for the sake of this question. 7 game series.

Would you bet $700 @ +210 for Toronto to with The WS...

OR

$100 to win on each game. (Example is +135 tonight Game 1. )

Also guessing that the BJ's will be the underdog most games (Or close to it)
 
Dodgers lost Alex Vesia from the roster. Doesn't take much reading between the lines that they had a miscarriage after a very public pregnancy on social media. Regardless, that's been a pretty consistent lefty out of the pen that's otherwise been shaky at best lately.
 
cumulative 1st inning runs last 21 ws g1
0 runs - 5 games
1 run - 6 games
2 runs - 6 games
3 runs - 3 games
4 runs - 1 game

the first inning run had no correlation to the full game total. what I'm looking at is the 47.6% rate of o1.5
 
home team went 14-7 su against an average line of -124 think I'm just gonna focus on runs rather than a side
 
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Hope everyone sees now what I meant. Snell did not pitch bad. The Jays just wore him down. like Fried. Most of the damage was against their weak BP but Snell's line ends up being 5 ER in 5 IP, 100 pitches.

Now you're Dave Roberts staring at game 5 (potentially tied 2-2 and certainly headed to Toronto) and your ace has a 9 ERA, 4/3 K/BB ratio in 5 IP, the last game. This isn't like it happened in some fluky April game months ago and you can write it off. It happened 5 days prior and all the same guys he battled against and lost will be in there again. It is in your home field but the Jays actually did BETTER on the road in worst ball park for hitters last week.

Then imagine you're Snell. You already had bags under your eyes looking like you're 55 years old for game 1. Next time he's going to be out there looking like he's 80 and probably flustered twice as easily.

This is how the Jays roll. It's all a psychological game with them. They toy with great pitchers.
 
The value is on +172 Jays and over 8. Jays are going to score 4+ here so it all depends on how well Scherzer does. Grabbing some alt line overs at plus odds too. I'm also under Glasnow 15.5 outs and over 1.5 walks. The Jays had Yamamoto in trouble in the 1st inning but couldn't cash in and he settled down. I don't think the team makes the same mistake here.

Despite me not being too bullish on Scherzer, generally whoever the Jays throw out there at SP each game is irrelevant. Expect 4+ runs from the Dodgers no matter what and they either win 5-1 or lose 10-5. This series relies solely on how well the Jays can attack the SP and how early they get to the Dodgers BP.
 
Glasnow has been pitching great. I would not bet against him right now. Max was OK vs Seattle but this is a different animal. Line is high for a reason. Nobody is going to see value with LAD at -200. But if Toronto finds a way to win this game I think they win the series.
 
LAD team total for me tonight. Not comfy enough with TOR hitting Glasnow for full game but I'm pretty comfortable with the Dodgers getting to Max and the BJ pen
 
I’m a Bomber fan so take that into consideration, but this is a pretty awesome World Series.
And I wish it was the USA Blue Jays 🤣🫡🥷
 
Some observations from last night:

Barger is a budding superstar. 99 MPH bullseye to easily throw out a runner. The last time I saw a throw that good it was Bo Jackson. The Jays should try him out on the mound and see if he can be a two way player.

John Schneider can't manage his way out of a paper bag. I'm no fan of Dave Roberts but it's clear that he is the smarter and more experienced of the two. What a bunch of dumbass moves, especially in the context of the Springer injury. Plus if you know you'll be taking out Bichette at some point during the game, put him BEFORE Guerrero in the lineup, not after. He'll just get pitched around every time to get to the sub.

I expect another high scoring game today. Both teams are going to run longer with their starters today, plus both bullpens have been highly exposed to the lineups. The risk to that is Ohtani pitching well (LAD are going to get their 4+ runs regardless), but I think the Jays have shown enough to everyone that they aren't the Brewers. Plus I can't imagine that a guy who was on base 8 times last night is going to be operating at full capacity on the mound. Superstar or not, humans still need rest. Bieber was quietly observing the game while Ohtani was immersed in it. That has to be an advantage to the Jays. I also don't expect Will Smith to be operating at peak performance either.

Whoever wins this game likely wins the series. This is a must win for the Jays and a very necessary win for the Dodgers. Why? I see the rest of the series playing out like this:

Game 5 - Snell - Jays
Game 6 - Yamamoto - Dodgers
Game 7 - Glasnow - big advantage to Jays being at home and proving they can handle Glasnow. Plus he has historically struggled at the Rogers Centre. Yamamoto will be very unlikely to pitch the next day.
 
gamer said:
Some observations from last night:

Barger is a budding superstar. 99 MPH bullseye to easily throw out a runner. The last time I saw a throw that good it was Bo Jackson. The Jays should try him out on the mound and see if he can be a two way player.

John Schneider can't manage his way out of a paper bag. I'm no fan of Dave Roberts but it's clear that he is the smarter and more experienced of the two. What a bunch of dumbass moves, especially in the context of the Springer injury. Plus if you know you'll be taking out Bichette at some point during the game, put him BEFORE Guerrero in the lineup, not after. He'll just get pitched around every time to get to the sub.

I expect another high scoring game today. Both teams are going to run longer with their starters today, plus both bullpens have been highly exposed to the lineups. The risk to that is Ohtani pitching well (LAD are going to get their 4+ runs regardless), but I think the Jays have shown enough to everyone that they aren't the Brewers. Plus I can't imagine that a guy who was on base 8 times last night is going to be operating at full capacity on the mound. Superstar or not, humans still need rest. Bieber was quietly observing the game while Ohtani was immersed in it. That has to be an advantage to the Jays. I also don't expect Will Smith to be operating at peak performance either.

Whoever wins this game likely wins the series. This is a must win for the Jays and a very necessary win for the Dodgers. Why? I see the rest of the series playing out like this:

Game 5 - Snell - Jays
Game 6 - Yamamoto - Dodgers
Game 7 - Glasnow - big advantage to Jays being at home and proving they can handle Glasnow. Plus he has historically struggled at the Rogers Centre. Yamamoto will be very unlikely to pitch the next day.
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Great stuff!

Very stoked for tonight although today might have been my biggest sleep in all year. That ran late!
 
gamer said:
a guy who was on base 8 times last night is going to be operating at full capacity on the mound
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he had that clumsy baserunning out sliding into second. subsequent time he ran from first to second - he was stretching out a calf, manager came out to check on him. and he was also thrown out sliding into second in a previous attempt. hope he slept well.
 
austinhous said:
he had that clumsy baserunning out sliding into second. subsequent time he ran from first to second - he was stretching out a calf, manager came out to check on him. and he was also thrown out sliding into second in a previous attempt. hope he slept well.
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Leg cramps per the announcers
 
B.A.R. said:
Leg cramps per the announcers
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can't believe they sent him to steal 2nd in that one spot. it was a bold move. it was the only time I've ever seen Dave Roberts get emotional. he's usually always stoic and cool. bold move with your thoroughbred
 
Roberts also acted worried when they interviewed him at the start of the 6th
"it's not good starting off the 3 game homestand with your bullpen having to carry 4 innings right off the bat."
little did he know at the time
 
Not surprising but Springer is out tonight

Probably can get a good price on a couple things with Ohtani pitching since the Jays don't strike out much. Total outs is a no brainer o17.5 with the bullpen situation. It's so juicy many would want parlay it with something which w/o Springer you can probably get reasonable odds on either no Toronto baserunners in the 1st inning or an over Ks for him in the 1st. Haven't looked at the scenarios but there might well be more value on him as a pitcher than normal because of the opposition.
 
KJ said:
Not surprising but Springer is out tonight

Probably can get a good price on a couple things with Ohtani pitching since the Jays don't strike out much. Total outs is a no brainer o17.5 with the bullpen situation. It's so juicy many would want parlay it with something which w/o Springer you can probably get reasonable odds on either no Toronto baserunners in the 1st inning or an over Ks for him in the 1st. Haven't looked at the scenarios but there might well be more value on him as a pitcher than normal because of the opposition.
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Good capping !
 
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Jays have a ton of value now. No way should they be +160 for the series and +172 for tomorrow's game. I've read some of the Dodgers fan social media and the commentary out of their own backyard about the concerns over the weaknesses and what Vegas is putting out there doesn't make sense. Jays are going to score 4+ runs. The only way the Dodgers win is if they put up 5+ of their own. So the O/U can't be only 7.5 with a +172 ML. If the Jays do lose this series, John Schneider will almost certainly be in the middle of it. Not due to any "David vs Goliath" situation. The Dodgers may be the better team, but they also have more easily exploitable holes. The Jays are solid from 1-9. They can play long ball. They can play small ball. And their defense is good enough to pick up the slack for questionable starting pitching. Forget about the peripherals like FIP and whatever else. "Fielding independent pitching" is good for contract negotiations, not good for comparing two teams when one has vastly superior defense. Simply compare the aggregate IP and runs allowed of the four starters for each team. The Dodgers should have a massive advantage and they don't.

Now let's assess the Dodgers situation. Two of the next three are in Toronto. Two of the next three are going to be pitched by starters who couldn't go more than 5 innings their first time around. Other than yesterday's marathon which saw the Dodgers BP dominate the Jays spring training roster thanks to tactical genius Schneider, the BP has been garbage and basically automatic 4 runs for the Jays each game. After one bad game there is a narrative that the offense stinks and Roberts will be pressured to make moves. The Jays neutralized Ohtani today which does go a long way. But the only bad offense I have seen is limited to two guys - the two guys around him - Pages and Betts. That makes it very easy to pitch around him. Now the problem that Roberts faces is that those two guys are the two most valuable on the defensive end. They are not going to take out Mookie, maybe move him down in the order, but Pages is almost certainly gone tomorrow and Hernandez will be in center. That won't bode well for a lot of those gappers to left that will be hit by a RH heavy line-up facing Snell.

Dave Roberts has a lot of tough decisions and bad options over the next three games. John Schneider has the opposite problem. He has a lot of GOOD options and levers to pull, but I am not sure he has the brains to use them correctly.

Going into the series, I would have said that both teams have mediocre bullpens and it's hard to tell who has the advantage. Going into Game 5, I have changed my tone. The Jays have a distinct advantage, and it's from an unexpected source. Chris Bassitt is absolutely dealing right now. He has taken well to being a long man. He can easily go the 3-4 innings needed to bridge the gap between the starter and Hoffman. Now what does this genius manager do? He takes him out in favor of Varland today instead of letting him mop up the bottom of the order in the 9th. No harm, no foul - in fact it saved my otherwise doomed over 8 bet - but Varland looked absolutely miserable and gassed. He is NOT to be trusted in high leverage situations anymore, certainly not tomorrow and maybe not the rest of the series. Hopefully the Jays brass was smart enough to see that and will adjust their decision making accordingly. Last night Bassitt went only 1 inning in a tied game while Schneider blew through the bullpen and bench like it was crack. In a way it has worked out favorably, because now he can use Bassitt in a long relief role for at least one of the next three games - if he is smart enough to see what he has.

The hitting side, he actually did well today. France and Straw were subbed in at appropriate times. Hopefully he learned something about overmanaging in game 3, but is now focusing his "skills" too much on the BP side. If a veteran starting pitcher coming out of the BP is dealing, let him do 3+ innings. Maybe you want to avoid having him face off against Ohtani and Freeman twice, but the rest of the lineup is fair game.
 
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Imo Toronto should be up 3 1. Game 3. Don't know who Toronto batter was. But the hitter Kershaw got out. Was 3 2 count bases loaded,2 out and guy swung at clear blatant ball 4 low and outside and hit grounder out to 2nd. If he walks Toronto up 1 and likely win game. I didn't bet it but just hate LAD. If Dodgers win series I'll always remember that one pitch. Just had to get that out. I love Smoltz but not a peep from either announcer
 
@lvmike32 , i echo those sentiments about announcers, especially during kershaws final batter in 12th. Just shut up...give the ball strike count...and shut up. The moment didnt need any extra setup from you. The involved and casual fan were aware of all that was going on...or you had plenty of time previous to that last batter to set it up.

One other gripe from me. Has anyone else had difficulty seeing Fox's strike zone box? It annoys me its basically invisible.

@gamer , top notch thoughts. I dont see anything much differently than you. I did think LAD would hit a bit better than yesterday. Beiber did pitch to alot of contact, but he kept ball down and had alot of spin on his pitches that allowed them to float and be caught. Really good job by him.
 
slim5150 said:
@lvmike32 , i echo those sentiments about announcers, especially during kershaws final batter in 12th. Just shut up...give the ball strike count...and shut up. The moment didnt need any extra setup from you. The involved and casual fan were aware of all that was going on...or you had plenty of time previous to that last batter to set it up.

One other gripe from me. Has anyone else had difficulty seeing Fox's strike zone box? It annoys me its basically invisible.

@gamer , top notch thoughts. I dont see anything much differently than you. I did think LAD would hit a bit better than yesterday. Beiber did pitch to alot of contact, but he kept ball down and had alot of spin on his pitches that allowed them to float and be caught. Really good job by him.
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Slim Fox isn't showing the ball strike box except on replays. You're not seeing it because it's not there. Read about it but no idea why. Probably don't want to show up umpires in playoffs. And Make announcers talk about missed calls. Ridiculous. I don't watch much. And 18 innings a classic? Not me. No way I'm watching 6 hours of baseball.
 
lvmike32 said:
Imo Toronto should be up 3 1. Game 3. Don't know who Toronto batter was. But the hitter Kershaw got out. Was 3 2 count bases loaded,2 out and guy swung at clear blatant ball 4 low and outside and hit grounder out to 2nd. If he walks Toronto up 1 and likely win game. I didn't bet it but just hate LAD. If Dodgers win series I'll always remember that one pitch. Just had to get that out. I love Smoltz but not a peep from either announcer
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Joe Davis was having a very hard time during extra the other night.

He wasn't happy that he was working that long, at all.

I can think of at least 6-8 times his anguish came into display via comments.

C'mon man, that was a historic game. Suck it up, buttercup!
 
B.A.R. said:
Joe Davis was having a very hard time during extra the other night.

He wasn't happy that he was working that long, at all.

I can think of at least 6-8 times his anguish came into display via comments.

C'mon man, that was a historic game. Suck it up, buttercup!
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Lol not me. I just tune in and out. No one can hit anymore. Either home run or bust. I find it boring. Our friend big units played baseball and says Babe Ruth wouldn't make it today. Every pitcher throws 100 fastball and 90 slider now. Even shitty ones. Hard to hit for average. Ohtani is amazing but I basically have no interest anymore. Dodgers will just buy Skubal to replace Kershaw for 40m per year.
 
There was some insanely poor baseball being played for a couple hours in there. Absolute hangers that just weren't getting hit well, it seemed like guys were trying to end the game with one swing for a long time. And it was closer to 7 hours than 6 lol.
 
lvmike32 said:
Lol not me. I just tune in and out. No one can hit anymore. Either home run or bust. I find it boring. Our friend big units played baseball and says Babe Ruth wouldn't make it today. Every pitcher throws 100 fastball and 90 slider now. Even shitty ones. Hard to hit for average. Ohtani is amazing but I basically have no interest anymore. Dodgers will just buy Skubal to replace Kershaw for 40m per year.
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They won't be buying Skubal. They'll have to trade for him this winter.
 
Im pretty sure one of the big name teams will be involbed to try and get skubal. Hes great...like wicked good. But, for some of these smaller mid level teams, the cost of prospects wont be woryh it for a likely 1 year rental
 
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