World Series (day-by-day analysis)

[Unicorn]

GAME 1 (@ Tampa - Kazmir vs Hamels)

Going to pass on this game as long as the sides are concerned, there are just too many factors for this game. The only possible play I'm thinking about here is taking the Under 7.5 because of what I've seen from Kaz in his most recent performance, plus Hamels has been awesome so far while both pens have been great and will be well-rested. Also, both teams aren't familiar with the opposing pitchers so I'm expecting a classic pitching duel tomorrow night. Also, from defensive standpoint - both teams have been playing well so those nice run supports both Kaz and Hamels have been getting over the course of the regular season may be decreased here by a decent amount. Definitely like the under play here for a small/medium amount of units. I'll post my final decision tomorrow, need to check a few more things.

 

[Unicorn]

GAME 1 FINAL PLAY:

Under 7.5 @ 1.80 for 2 Units


Best of luck everyone!

 

[Tito]

On U 3.5 1st 5 for tonight - gl unicorn


Btw, ever heard of the band The Unicorns? One of my favorites, only had two albums, but they were great.

 

[chancedog]

BOL I was leaning that way but just can't pull the trigger

 

[G-Man]

GL on the under. 7-0 Tampa! :shake:

 

[Unicorn]

GAME 2 (@ Tampa - Shields vs Myers)

First game went well, with the Under play cashing in. What I've learned from this game is that this series definitely have a chance to go distance. Also, I tip my hat to Phillies who were playing like there almost wasn't any kind of a long layoff in between their last game and this one. I said almost because although they reached base 14 times, they also left 21 men on base. On the other hand, Rays reached the base only 7 times (5 hits and 2 via walks) but had only 3 LOB. Anyway, I like Phillies for tonight's game and here's why.

Definitely a solid spot for Rays to try to make it even but are they really worth being such huge favorites? Like one may say that this is the game for them to take, I think the possibility to put their opponents to a 0-2 hole before going home gives Philadelphia decent chances, especially since they proved they can win here last night. I'm aware of the fact that Shields has been awesome at home but in Game 6, BoSox showed us he's not so untouchable here and his title "Big Game Shields" has been questionable. Over the course of the season, Myers has been struggling on the road but this situation is a bit different imo. These are the play-offs, and overall (home/away) season numbers shouldn't play such a huge roll in this situation. Having a home field advantage is nice for pitcher's level of comfort but what's more important to me is answering the question - how does Myers perform when going on extended rest (>5 days)? Well, here's the breakdown of his past season numbers considering this:

YEAR REST W L ERA WHIP BAA
2008 5 days 3 9 5.61 1.54 .302
2008 >5 days 6 4 3.69 1.31 .242

2007 5 days 7 4 4.26 1.36 .263
2006 >5 days 5 3 3.25 1.16 .246

I've left out 2007 and 2005 seasons because he wasn't a full-time starter in that period, but reliever instead.

As for Shields - he's been pretty much equally good in both situations (normal rest and extended) with the only noticable difference being the amount of HR's allowed - it's been slightly higher when he was pitching on 5 days rest (tonight) by ~4.2%. But with the way Phillies have been hitting the ball out of the ballpark(s), it may prove to be a factor for this game. I guess we'll see...

Also, although I won't play totals for this game, I have a feeling we might see a higher number of runs compared to last night, because both teams will be facing not so strong pitchers plus both of them are RHP.

GAME 2 FINAL PLAY:

Philadelphia @ 2.35 for 5 Units


Best of luck everyone!

 

[Fondybadger]

Nice win w/ game 1, good health tonight

 

[Satyr]

GL Uni, great work so far.

:cheers:

 

[Smokedawg]

I like it

 

[emkee]

On the Phils in Game Two aswell.

GL...:shake:

 

[Unicorn]

Pfff... what to say about this game? Anyone who was watching knows what happened. Imo Phillies have done to themselves exactly the same thing what Angels did to themselves vs Boston. They put themselves in bunch of positions to score some runs but just didn't execute when it counted. A few more terrible calls by umpires and we have a tied up series. I still think the value on Phillies was there, I just regret for puting so much money on them, should've waited for at least 1 more game before going out with larger stakes. Anyway, looking forward to Game 3 and btw, I tip my cap to Rays and Maddon for doing their part of the job (read: executing and playing smart/small ball).

 

[Unicorn]

GAME 3 (@ Philadelphia - Moyer vs Garza)

Obviously, both pitching and up to some point hitting edge goes to Tampa - if we're to judge from what we've seen from first 2 games of this series. But I'll be honest and say that I wouldn't be suprised if Phillies somehow win tonight. After all, this is their place and I believe in suprises ^^. Therefore I'm not going with full stakes at Tampa tonight. Hopefully tonight's game will show us the possible direction of this series.


GAME 3 FINAL PLAY(S):

Tampa Bay @ 1.85 for 5 Units
Tampa Bay -1.5 @ 2.35 for 1 Unit


Best of luck everyone!

 

[Satyr]

GL my friend :cheers:

 

[Unicorn]

Well, that's it for me as long as this WS goes.

Too mans sloppy plays, bad weather and home umpires makes this series completely unpredictable and frustrating from betting standpoint for me, I'm sick and tired of this crap.

From viewer standpoint, I'd stick to that old - "Let the better team win". I really like the both teams, because they play with their hearts and got great and "pure" managers, not some pricks like some other teams

Going to try to get my money back (and make some) on NHL, my system has fared well for me so far...


Good luck everyone and read you next regular season!

:tiphat:

World Series record closed at 1-3, -9,40 Units.