World Cup Knockout Rounds...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
This will be a tough post to read, as I've spent all day handicapping these eight games and believe basically that my soccer work is done, and I will be going back to exclusively reading Phil Steele, doing my 90 mins to 2 hours of baseball handicapping and drinking cocktails heavily on non-World Cup days until late August. Lots to digest, so let's get to it.

Saturday Octavos (1/8ths finals is the literal translation, one word in spanish that they use here for the Round of 16 that I actually like better than Round of 16).

Chile plays the hosts in Belo Horizonte. First, the ugly. The Chileans have never beaten Brazil on the host's soil, losing 20 times and drawing 6 in 26 matches. Now, the bad. Howard Webb, who did the 2010 Round of 16 matchup between these two in South Africa, will be the referee. Though Chile have no reason to think that he'll favor Brazil based on that game, as if anything he could have given Brazil a penalty in their 3-0 win and did not.

The Chileans are certainly in form. La Roja is one team that Felipe Scolari has repeatedly mentioned hoping not have to play in a knockout stage game. An in-form Neymar will give them troubles almost certainly, however. He's got four goals through the group stage, and has had success against Chile in the past. Two meetings in 2013 showed him scoring once and setting up Rever in an exciting 2-2 draw in which the Brazilian side played only players with home clubs. The second game in Toronto featured their top squad, with Neymar setting up Robinho's late goal that proved the difference before being subbed out in injury time.

I would expect the Brazilians to bring on Fernandinho for Paulinho based on his efforts in the second half of the Cameroon game, where the hosts were finally their swarming selves after five flatish halves to start the tournament.

Chile lost 2-0 to Holland, but still controlled the ball 64 percent of the game. Arturo Vidal will also play Saturday after missing the Dutch match Monday. The Juventus stud had knee surgery in May and isn't still yet 100 percent, but will be on display Saturday. Luiz Gustavo will have to shut down Vidal, who arrives in the box at just the right time more often than not. One thing the Dutch did show Brazil is how to slow the Chilean attack: smother Alexis Sanchez. Dirk Kuyt man-marked him for much of the day, with Blind stayed behind to clean up any issues. Gustavo and Fernandinho should be responsible for keeping Sanchez away from Silva and David Luiz, where he can beat them with his speed and draw potentially rash treatment from the physical Marcelo. Sanchez runs direct from deep for the Chileans, however, rather than from out with like with Barcelona. The midfielders will be responsible for keeping him quiet. Eight of these Chilean players were on the South African roster, where an eerily similar fate awaited them. They won their first two and clinched their spot in the last 16 before losing to Brazil (the last two times they have been to the octavos, they were trounced 7-1 combined by Brazil, in 1998 and 2010). This one should be closer, but it's hard to ask the Chileans to turn the tables on Brazil with the game on hostile ground.

Prediction: Brazil 2, Chile 1. No play.


In the other Saturday octavo, two more CONMEBOL sides lace it up. Of course, the story here is Uruguay missing Luis Suarez, and rightfully so for his shameful debacle of biting against an equally heinous greaseball defender Cheillini, less than 90 seconds before the Celeste scored the go-through goal against Italy in the last group stage match where both sides were rightfully beaten by the Ticos. Colombia had a much easier group to navigate, but don't think coach Pekerman will apologize for that. The Narcos (Cafeteros?) have much more firepower on both ends at this point, and these Latino sides get easily rattled (and don't easily recover) when there is a sign of distress in the ranks. The Uruguayans are mentally tough, as we saw in 2010, and can take the us-against-the-world mentality to a boiling point, but if you get ransacked for 3 goals in one half with the lead and without Suarez, what do you think will happen in this spot? A huge serving of whup-ass seems on the plate, and I'll take the better team and eschew recent "tradition".

Prediction: Colombia 3, Uruguay 1
The play: Colombia +101 after commission on the 3-way, risking 4000


Too much going on to do all 6 other writeups tonight, will try to finish many of them tomorrow morning... :shake: GL to all who are on my sides, and health to those against...
 
Played Columbia as well. They have a shit ton of momentum, and Uruguay is not the same team w/out Suarez.
 
nice write up, thanks for your world cup coverage--its been great. the last 2 days seem to have more upset potential than the 1st two (the right side of the bracket over the left).

...couldn't believe ESPN hired phil steele and walter's under fbi investigation with the financial guy and formerly mickelson--now the whole world will know two of the biggest names in the betting worlds for to very different reasons. i say thank God for the Steele thing--he is a huge upgrade over denture-flapping lou holts and mark may or any of their other wind bags--now i don't have to listen to a an hour of manure on the radio to here his week to week thoughts outside of powersweep (which i think printtime is like monday morning --way early in the week)

good luck in the knockout round
 
So smart to lay off that Brazil game. That's a win in and of itself right there. Good to see we're starting to line up, Rex. That always makes me feel smarter by association.

Go Columbia.
 
onto Sunday's octavos...

Needless to say I need to get the obvious out of the way for those who don't know my recent poor run against Mexico. I was against them in all 3 group stage games and got it shoved up my ass in all of them. Counting the Brazil game in the 2nd half when I was betting the hosts live hand over fist at plus money, I'm stuck a bit more than 18k in this tournament, which more than makes up for any of the right sides I've profited on over the last fortnight. To start with the bad, I acknowledge that Mexico is a far different team when playing with confidence. I have seen the ups and downs with them since about 2007. When they are in top form, as like right now, they are an incredibly difficult team to break down and beat. They have played more fixtures than anyone in the world since May training camps started, and have gotten a result in all of them. They allowed only one goal in the group stage and have been as solid as anyone thus far, even with some holes at the back. The temperature at kickoff will be in the mid-80s, with humidity and sunlight enveloping the stadium in Fortaleza. It will be hot, which should favor Mexico.

Now let's get to some of the reasons why I'm looking to get a lot of my money back on Holland in this spot. The Mexicans have qualified for the round of 16 in every World Cup since 1994. And yes, in each of those five events, they have gotten beaten at this stage.

Carlos Salcido will get the call to replace suspended Jose Juan Vazquez in the middle. He'll have to provide a decent defensive presence, despite lacking in speed. He's plied his trade at PSV Eindhoven in the past, so he knows many of these Dutch players. As the first in the line of defense against the Dutch counter, he'll be under fire early and often. The Netherlands are fast and great physically and technically.

Holland's counterattack is lethal, led by the pure speed of Arjen Robben and the class of Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder. Robben is in the prime of his career and is in a system here where he's allowed all the space to do what he loves, and that's create scoring opportunities. The Dutch have averaged more than 13 shots per game, so they will keep Guillermo Ochoa busy. The Dutch only had the ball 37 percent of the time against Chile, which flies in the face of how Van Gaal's teams have played throughout his coaching career (possession based). Holland's 68 fouls in the group stage were more than anyone else. Oddly for them, as well, this is a disciplined team. The trademark Dutch flamboyancy was semi-ditched in South Africa, and this team is seeing better results as well with the lowered expectations. Make no mistake, however, the Dutch are the supremely talented side and there is no chance they should be plus-money here.

Prediction: Holland 2, Mexico.
Bet: Holland +115 risking 9k


In the other octavo involving a CONCACAF/UEFA matchup, the ratings will undoubtedly be worse than any of the other seven fixtures. Minnows Costa Rica (one game at this stage ever in the World Cup) and Greece (first time ever to the knockout stage) are set to battle in a game that will likely show very little. Greece won the 2004 European title by doing a lot of nothing, and are professionals at it. Costa Rica's tight 8-near-the-back defense likes to spring forward on the counter, using their speed against the strength and physicality of the european sides, which worked to produce four points against Italy and England in the group stages. The Ticos have not allowed goal from the run of play and have gone 246 minutes without conceding. There's a relatively decent chance that Greece will not score.

A letdown certainly seems possible for the Ticos. They've been dogged three straight times against three former world champions, and gotten results in each game, eventually winning the group by a comfortable margin. In this affair, they will be rightfully favored against a Greek side that was resolute in defending against Japan with 10 men for more than a half and who gutted out a last-minute penalty to beat the Ivory Coast and get out of Group C behind Colombia. The game is in Recife and it should be a very warm afternoon, which would seem to favor the Ticos because of the humidity. Joel Campbell should know the Greeks quite well, as he played for Olympiakos last season, scoring eight goals and dishing out 10 assists in the top league in Greece, while also scoring against Manchester United in the Champions League. The Ticos are in form and well fit, and only have two yellow cards through the group stage.

Meanwhile, Greek top keeper Orestis Karnezis was forced off against the Ivorians and is trying to regain his fitness. Panagiotis Kone, the attacking midfielder, will miss because of injury. Will Kostas Katsouranis return to the starting XI? He's been one of Portuguese coach Santos's favorite players, but was bad in his two stints in Brazil. Expect Samaras up front as the lone striker.

Costa Rica won't wow most teams in this tournament with their talent, but they clearly seem to have more than the Greeks. They should have the crowd well behind them as well, being giant killers, from the Americas and not being totally boring like Greece. The Tico attack should wear down Greece eventually for a goal at some point, and they'll pip them on the counter late after Greece are forced to come out of their shell.

Prediction: Costa Rica 2, Greece 0
Bet: Costa Rica PICK -140 to win 2500

GL!
 
Rex,

I've enjoyed your breakdown's during the WC this year. I haven't been posting my plays, because they have been mostly based on value on teams based on what I have observed during the WC. I ignore soccer until the WC. This year has presented some great betting opportunities. I haven't hit more +500 dogs in my life!!

Looking at today's card, I'm assuming you were able to get Holland at +115 through Pinnacle, as I can't find that number anywhere, and sure as hell would bet Holland at + money. Still considering that at -105, as I believe they have a lot more class than Mexico, and have been able to avoid the traps that have enveloped many of the WC favorites from Europe such as Italy and Spain.

It's the second game on the card that I believes offers the most value. On one hand you have a Greece team that has been left for dead in this tournament on many occasions. They started with a 3-0 loss to a Columbia team, that has proven to be pretty damn good. They entered game 2 with rumors of in house fighting surrounding the team, and it was thought that the discipline of Japan would end Greece's WC. However, as the game played out, the Greeks pushed the Japanese team around, and played 50 minutes of 10-11 ball. I believe that game was the turning point for this Greek team, as they rallied from that game to beat a superior Ivory Coast team in the waning minutes.

Today, should be a defense struggle, which would seem to play in the Greeks hands. However, as the game wears on, I think the weather conditions, and the fact that CR has the most talented goal scorer of either side in Campbell, gives them an edge. Considering a draw bet for regulation time and CR to advance.

GL
 
The number Rex got was around on plenty of books, the price jump was there yesterday morning/afternoon and has recently taken a plunge
 
The first game Monday in Brasilia sees Nigeria battle a rampaging French side that's really hit its stride since coming from 2 goals down last November to pip Ukraine 3-0 in Paris in the UEFA Playoffs to qualify for the tournament. Even without injured Frank Ribery, the Frogs won their first two games before a fairly flat effort against a desperate Ecuador side in the final group stage game.

Bacary Sagna is a fairly outspoken player, having already promised to leave Arsenal despite not having a job at this point. He also said over the weekend that it would be a failure to not win the tournament. The Frenchies made three changes after beating Honduras 3-0 and six changes after thrashing Switzerland 5-2. Sakho has a hammy but everyone else is healthy and this is the best they've played since Deschamps took over two-plus years ago. One cause for concern is that none of the French active 23 has ever played in a knockout game in the World Cup, and just four players were on the 2010 team that got humiliated in South Africa. The average number of caps per France player is 21, which ranks 30th of the 32 participating teams (only rebuilding Australia and Algeria have less). The French have just three players with more than 50 caps, and Deschamps acknowledged this concern at a recent press conference.

Nigeria earned its place in the round of 16 by beating Bosnia and drawing Iran, with an exciting loss to Argentina in the last group game giving them plenty to think about before this meeting with the French. This is the first time the Super Eagles have been to this stage in 16 years, the last time the French were champions. A win would make them just the fourth African side to reach the quarterfinal round. The Nigerians refused to train on Thursday over a money dispute, becoming the latest African side (following Ghana) to complain about bonus payments. Here is a good read about this latest mess involving an African side and money. http://www.espnfc.com/team/nigeria/657/blog/post/1920604/trust-behind-latest-nigeria-bonus-row

The French kept two clean sheets in the group stage, but the Nigerians can't be dismissed here. Winger Ahmed Musa scored both goals in the 3-2 loss to Argentina. His speed will cause problems and he will look to expose the space behind France's fullbacks, each who have the freedom to push up in the aggressive formation. Sagna is battling with Debuchy to start at right back. Koscielny will replace Sakho alongside Raphael Varane if Sakho doesn't recover, but that duo haven't played together much, and the Nigerians have enough class to expose that partnership. The Frogs must also keep their wits about them; if they can play 11 v. 11, they figure to advance, but that's far from a done deal. With the lack of experience also sometimes comes unintelligent play. Both Giroud and Pogba were lucky not to get straight red cards in the group stage; Giroud for elbowing Ecuador's Achilier and Pogba for a wild kick at Wilson Palacios against Honduras. Sakho also avoided a potential sending off for elbowing an Ecuadorian in the face.

Tough game to handicap, but you usually get a "good" France (1982, 1986, 1998, 2006 made at least the semis) or a "bad" France (2002, 2010 went winless) so this seems to be a French side that, despite its shortcomings, are poised to advance. France is playing early for the first time (three group stage games were all late afternoon), but they should find a way to get a result here.

Prediction: France 2, Nigeria 1
No play.



Going to take a stab at the aforementioned youthful Algerians when they play the German monsters in Monday's late game in Porto Alegre.

Joachim Loew had nothing but complimentary things to say about the Desert Foxes, saying that "they are a compact side who run a lot and are aggressive. I've rarely seen a team defend so vehemently, but still attack with purpose."

Lukas Podolski will miss this one with a leg injury. Mario Goetze should replace him. Loew is likely to keep defensive midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger in the 11 in place of Sami Khedira. Schweinsteiger did well against the US, but he's been nursing an injury since May and prolly isn't fit to go more than 60-65 minutes.

Algeria was game throughout the group stage, scoring more goals than any other team in Group H and playing a generally aesthetically pleasing style in beating South Korea 4-2 and coming from a goal down to draw the favored Russians and advance with the four points in second that they earned as the only team to win a game in the group other than Belgium. The 2010 unit was one of the worst in South Africa and easily the most boring team in the event, exiting without even finding the back of the net once in three games. Credit coach Vahid Halilhodzic for instilling a system where the Algerians now create chances, but his shift to a youth movement is largely responsible for the progression, as well. Just seven players from the 23 in South Africa are in Brazil. There are only four players that are older than 29 and most of the core players are in their mid-20s. This is going to be a learning experience, regardless of results.

I wanted to bitch and moan about the game being in Porto Alegre, and that being a big edge for the Germans, with the weather being much more temperate there, but this is the same place where Algeria struck for four goals against SK, so I'll let it go and call it at least a semi-wash.

Lastly, say what you want but you can be sure these Algerians will do everything they can to honor the 1982 team who was cheated out of the next round by a farce precipitated by West Germany and Austria (see more here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Germany_1–0_Austria

Both coaches might try to downplay that, but with Algeria finally advancing in this tournament for the first time, you can be sure they'll get their money's worth.

Prediction: Germany 2, Algeria 1
The play: Algeria +1.5 -103 to win 2000

Good luck!
 
smh, big overnight money on Greece; CR is available at PICK -108 now on the exchange so I'll add some to that. Also for the second night in a row they bet on Mexico overnight. Yesterday a Holland push came in the daytime. I wonder if it will move again before post. But plus money is available most everywhere at this point on Holland.
 
Good luck mate. I was on Colombia pretty heavy yesterday, as I was in their last fame before the knock out stages despite them playing mostly bench players. This squad is for real, can't wait for Colombia v. Brazil.

I like the First Half draw between Netherlands and Mexico -- seems to me that the Dutch employ different strategies first half to second half. They really try to open it up offensively with their counter the second half. Especially once teams get more desperate to attack. If Mexico can stay disciplined defensively I think the first half stays 0-0
 
congrats on that dutch win--gotta measure of revenge on that one--thank God that schneider strike had so much velocity--that or a pk looked like the only way to beat ochoa for 88 nervous minutes, to get both in the last 2 and stoppage is very sweet--tactical mistake imo with herrerra taking his foot off the gas way to early taking off the 2nd striker that was causing havic on dutch defenders. hopefully the ticos can continue the streak!
 
Nice win for one of my favorite locales on the planet....I will be down in CR in Jan or Feb in 2015. I hope(and I know) they are partying proper there...they busted me out of my +160, but fuck it. Love them Ticos and Ticas

Love your writeups for the WC, love to see back in the MIlleb threa once this calms

Ugly card in Brasilia for me on the morrow....I'll have an action bet though

GL brother
 
I really wanted to take the Swiss today +1 but have been burned by them once against the Frogs and just not sure this is the spot to get in front of the Argentine train. Will call for 3-2 here, but 3-1 is more likely so passing on the side and OVERS are not a profitable play at this stage either, so it's a pass.

No value in the USA at this level either, even with Belgium possibly missing both center backs. They should still dictate play by and large, and an Algerian ref doesn't make me feel good about rooting the USA either. Although that's what it'll be, a root, with no financial backing. GL. Trying to find a semblance of normalcy in what is shaping up to be a crazy week.

:shake:
 
agree about the goals being what i see in the morning game, however this stage is not the place to play overs as evidenced by 2 goals in 31' and then an hour scoreless in the opener

Wonder how this is going for you when you consider the side of the counter your on and all the favorites have advanced so far?
 
don't deal with enough sucker business to make it a big deal. For example, everyone down here today, almost to a man, needs Belgium to win by 1 goal or more. But for the people who can write sharp against it then it's just 2 way, write and move accordingly.
 
Rex, you see any value on Colombia ML at +370? I think those are some good odds for a Colombian team that very well has a chance to steal the show on Friday. What worries me is Colombia's open play that could enable Brazil's potent offense to create many problems for Yepes and Zapata. Brazil is playing with a lot of pressure, and Colombia has really played some beautiful soccer. Thoughts on this match up?
 
capchub- will address you tomorrow at some point, but t-mike hits on some really astute points in the capping thread regarding that game. I am going to get into it later. Costa Rica post only coming tonight...
 
ok, so because of the 3 (yes THREE) 24-hour networks covering this tournament, i have been able to sit back and watch these games and evaluate everything essential, or the so-called essential parts, to each team, before the quarters commence. I have now seen every Costa Rica second of every Costa Rica game twice (or really, three times, if you count my time out at the bar Sunday night for the last 60 mins and penals)...

First off, every group team progressed. To me, this seemed like something that had never happened and I was correct. Only when I found out that in 2010 (Ghana beating the USA as a 2 seed vs a 1) that 7 of 8 advanced and the USA did not is where I felt empty/stupid/retarded/incomplete/ghastly/aghast --- combine those before I saw the US lose a heated battle to Belgium yesterday.

Let's not mind too much the fact that the USA had the supremely better manager, one who could bring on Yedlin and know he would get into spaces that Hazard would never occupy. One who ended up subbing on an 18-year old kid, down 2 goals in second added time that could immediately score against a top-flight keeper... one who brought in Brooks (scored a game winner in the opener) and constantly was able to justify basically every inclusion into the 23. I've got zero problems with the manager and look very much forward to a possible 4-3-3 for the US going into Russia in four years. Look at what Ives Galarcep (sp?) thinks at goal.com if you're not convinced that our future is very much promising....

I will break down these quarterfinals later; there is one opinion before I sleep tonight: Holland 2, Costa Rica 1.


I can give you analysis on this one better than anyone around. I go to the Jazz Cafe here is CR and watch Holland almost ritually. The Dutch have played in countless meaningful matches since the 2008 Euro. I have been there to see plenty of them. They ransacked Romania, Italy and France by 8-1 or 9-1; forgot the scoreline but it was an anal violation in the group stage. The Red Commies played the Dutch to a draw after 90 and scored twice after 110 minutes to knock them out before anyone remembered how special that group run was. I remembered. In 2010, I showed up at 4:40 am Costa Rica time to see the Dutch blast Denmark and Japan (3-0 combined, 11-0 mental if you watched the games) to get the required six points to get through. I still go there and can be found on Tico newspaper pages supporting Holland at the aforementioned Jazz Cafe if you look hard enough.

Despite all of my support for Holland, I have seen each team extensively, and I can say with great confidence that I've seen Costa Rica more than ANYONE. I watched all three of their group stage games (repeat) sober earlier, as well as the Greece game (also sober), and took notes. Will relay them tomorrow. Only disappointing thing for most of you is that I made Holland -1 flat and the total 2.25 o20, which means there will be not much/no value on anything betting-wise. If you want to gamble, do it on your dime and leave me be, despite my opinion. It's coming tomorrow, regardless.... :shake:
 
One thing that I saw before this tournament started from the soccer guys is the routine and quick dismissal of Costa Rica as being any real threat in their group. I saw enough last year and in their prep games to know otherwise. They were blessed to have two European teams in their group, and both with plenty more hype than substance. They had no African teams, which would have given them a real problem athletically. They got the worst South American team and one they had competed against multiple times in the last 5 years. So while people here bitched about them being the minnows in a group with three former champs, I laughed at them all and told them I would (as a USA supporter) trade them so fast their head would spin.

By no means did I think they were going to win their group when play started, but I did get some 35-ish/1 at halftime of the Uruguay game when they were down 1-0. They had controlled play most of the way, it was just a matter of converting. Suarez or no, Uruguay would have struggled there, and the Ticos were able to control the ball in almost all of the stoppage time, eventually drawing a frustration red card to Maxi Pereira. Uruguay was the only team to score on them in group play, and that came on a penalty (rightfully called) in the middle of the first half. Credit Pinto's compact defensive system that launches counters as a big key to the Ticos' success of last 18 months. These guys really know how to mesh with each other, almost like a club team despite players who feature all over Europe and the Americas, and it doesn't hurt to have one of the world's best goaltenders - a fact that I made clear a month ago to anyone who would listen to me.

One thing that was funny to me when watching the replays in Spanish, with the Ticos broadcasters in the studio, was their complaning (and rightfully so in some cases). It's considered okay to be a homer when calling the game down here. In fact, then Papastathopoulos scored in the 91st minute for Greece to tie things up at the end of regulation, they didn't even bother saying "Gol", just that the game was tied. You could hear a pin drop. I watched the game later (it was playing on the 24 hour channel with only live audio from the stadium and no announcers) and while I am convinced the Ticos had more fans than Greece, the loudest roar except for maybe Navas's penalty save is when Greece finally equalized. One of the complaints was that there were 5 minutes of extra time for Uruguay. They went on for 20-25 seconds saying they couldn't believe that. I thought to myself, for about 2 seconds, how retarded that was. Joel Campbell scores the first goal, celebrates for a bit, then finds the ball and pretends he's pregnant with it. Amazing how he didn't get a card, he even sucked his thumb. On Duarte's second goal, (a hell of a play by the way), he went to the bench and celebrated with everyone, admittedly that's not too bad, but they took their time. On the third goal, even Navas got in on the act, coming from his goal all the way down to the other end in the corner. The celebrations alone took 4 minutes, lmao, let alone any injuries.

The Italy game has its own asterisk. The Italians had to gut out three points in Manaus against England in a very physical game that probably lessened the chances of each side going forward. The Ticos did earn their win, even if Balotelli missed a sitter in the first half. Campbell drew an uncalled penalty before Ruiz chimed in 90 seconds later. Still, it must be said that England could have gotten as many as six points and at least four or two in each of the first two games. That would have made the last stage game meaningful for both sides. One thing the Ticos had been in good shape with before the knockout stage was cards. I would have given them a better chance of progressing with 5 guys suspended than I would have of winning the group with everyone available. It must be said that the side has not missed Saborio and Oviedo to this point, but in this game, that probably won't hold true. Sabo could very well give the Dutch defenders nightmares and is a true poacher, one who lives feasting on backlines that are gung-ho about getting forward. Oviedo would be true class to stave off the countless Dutch forays into the 18. He and Duarte being gone will probably tilt this one to the Oranje.

The ultimate x-factor is Navas. His game against Greece was as good or better than Tim Howard's exhibition against Belgium the other day. Now while the Greek don't possess any sort of class that the Belgians do, keep in mind that Navas was playing with only 9 in front of him for an hour and the lead for about half of that time. He stopped a 5-on-2 (yes, a 5 on 2!) in about the 114th minute that was as much about the Greeks fucking it up as his standing on his head (guy in the middle hits the guy on the left and cuts right, forces defender to follow and it's a tap in). I dug a little deeper (fourfourtwo) into the stats and saw just how great he was (and/or how bad the Tacos played) - Greece had 61 percent possession, completed 445-266 passes, 70 percent to 56 completed in the attacking third, 58 percent to 36 in long passes, 11 corners to 3, 24 percent crosses to 13, created roughly twice as many dangerous attacks (60-28) and had four times more total attempts (24-6). I've watched Ruiz's goal early in the second half before Duarte's red about eight times and on 4 of them it looks like a golazo and the other 4 it looks accidental. Most of you would probably see it as a miscue that happened to go in the right place but I'm inclined to give Bryan the benefit of the doubt because he's probably the best overall outfield player in the decade, if not the history of the country. But if Navas can somehow propel the seemingly outclassed Ticos to a win in this round by silencing the Dutch offense, the argument for best overall player period will be debatable, especially given how much money he's earned himself this summer when the transfer period starts.

I believe that DeJong being out will hurt the Dutch, but probably not at this stage. The Ticos seem to be the one outsider in the quarterfinals, and Holland's fortuitous draw to start the knockout stages continues. Whoever wins this game will certainly have my rooting interest in the semis and beyond if not my money. Tough to see Costa Rica advancing here, but they can certainly score, it's only a matter of keeping the Dutch from doing so more than once (probably). If it goes to penalties, however, I would only want the Ticos. Keep that in mind for live purposes. In fact, I would take them over every other team in the tournament if it came down to penalties.

Feel free to ask me any questions about this game that you want. I will go into the other three writeups later on. Doing some baseball work on tomorrow's card now (not posting in baseball now, winning, and i'm superstitious so until I have a bad week, I'll abstain from that, not for selfish reasons but because I like to keep winning and if it ain't broke, don't fix it). After that, I'll try to finish Conference USA preliminary ratings before working on the other three quarterfinal writeups this evening, or at least the two games tomorrow. Cheers mates...

:shake:
 
very nice Rexy, was wondering how Duarte's absence would be handled.
So far the -1 favs haven't done jack shit is this going to change? Man the Mexicans had them by the ropes wonder if the Dutch are not fans of CONCACAF right now.
De jong has been a beast but I do think Wijnaldum might provide a good cover.
Ruiz being a legend.
Whats the o/u set for how many chicks you bang?
 
Mikey, I'm in a protracted slump right now. Choosing career over chicks might work financially (or might not), but it sure leads to a solitary existence. Been doing soccer, baseball and college foots work 14 hours a day every day. You wouldn't believe it if I told you, but I have not stepped foot outside of my apartment (save for gym and pool) since Sunday night when I got back here in a drunken coma. All bets are off on the weekend, but I'm really worried on Saturday what my Dutch friends will think when I don't bother to show up at the same spot I've been to for all of their big games (Jazz Cafe Escazu) since 2008. I've given it great thought and I think I'll be rooting Ticos, if for no other reason than it gives me a better chance at getting lucky Saturday night.

By the way, agree wholeheartedly with almost everything you've said in the discussion thread regarding Colombia/Brazil except the class factor. I really think that the Brazilians have four stiffs in their starting XI. It's not like Colombia's players are MUCH better, but you make it sound like Hah-mez is the only guy who is worthy to be on the Brazil XI, which is stone wrong. Your psychological and other factors are much better reasons to bet Brazil than physical ones; I'll try to get to that later.
 
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Let's do a bit of a recap of a very memorable round of 16: Five of those eight games went to extra time, which broke a record (Italy 90 had four). Two-thirds of all goals were scored after the 75th minute. Six straight goalless first half draws, with three first half goals scored total in eight games. And for the first time since this format was enacted in 1986, all eight group winners moved through. This makes for exciting wagering, with no real mismatches (do you think CR really is sweating Holland after getting 3 results so far against UEFA sides in the last two weeks?).

Friday's games are two firecrackers, pun intended for my stateside friends.

Germany and France have both done enough thus far to warrant their inclusion to at least this stage. Nestor Pitana of Argentina will be the lead referee, with two fellow Argentines as his assistants and a Swede as the fourth official. The Germans won the toughest group and only dropped points against Ghana in the process. Luckily for them, the French don't pose that sort of athletic threat. There have been some rumors of sickness travelling through the German camp but those guys have the best drugs so you can be sure they will be healthy at kickoff. Still, there are cases to made for the Frogs here. Jachim Low has been carrying a high line throughout the event and the Froggies have been clever if not downright clinical on the counter.

Let's not forget the Frogs either crap out in the group stage or hit the semis in this event in every tournament in alternating fashion since 1994. They're due at least a semifinal bid this time. I'm just not quite ready to buy it. The SPI index, which I certainly respect, gives Germany only a 53 percent chance to progress. It would seem DRAW is the way to go if that thing is close to being right. The Germans are a bit less youthful and more experienced; that might tilt the scales in their favor just a smidge.

Prediction: Germany 1, France 1. Germany to win the game in 120 minutes, not penalties, 2-1.
No play for now, might add DRAW later if I can get +230.


The nightcap on Friday in Fortaleza features the two best teams in CONMEBOL. Spanish official Carlos Velasco Carballo will be in charge of the proceedings. James against Neymar. The upstarts against the hosts. Anyone who saw my comments in the in-game the other day as it became reality that Colombia would advance will see that I lined the game basically the way that it came out and how it stands now. Obviously, there is money for both sides and lots of it. I'm not really interested in the game. I believe the Colombians have more class in their XI and from top to bottom are the most talented team in the world. But it's hard to expect anything more out of them than what they've already given. They've never gone past the quarters in this event, and they draw the hosts off a draining penalty shootout, but with ample rest time. T-Mike has some great writeups in the discussion thread, and I'll steal some of his thoughts (while disagreeing with him about the quality of the players). It was rightfully pointed out on page 1 of that thread that homefield is almost offset by the immense pressure on the Brazilians (and i posted an SI link earlier today as well). T-Mike's thoughts, from various different posts (the ones I agree with).

"Colombia played against a Uruguay side who badly needed someone upfront to finish things off, the crosses Cavani delivered should of had him or Suarez to finish it off. Colombia were great the 1h but then became very very suspect, they needed a James wonder goal and a defensive lapse to beat a fairly mediocre Uruguay squad.... Teed said it yesterday that Brasil sets up like Real Madrid, you attack them the Brasilians will counter very very quickly and that is how they've always liked to play.... how often do you see this price for Brasil at home in a meaningful game? Why are people so impressed with how Colombia have played when they were clear cut to advance in that cheap group, they played an ultra defensive Greek team that that scoreline doesn't dictate how the match was played, statistically speaking it was very even. They were outshot again this time by Cote D'Ivoire. Even though the game vs Japan did not have major significance they were again outshot... the experience is with Brasil (sic), the tactical advantage is with Brasil (sic). Heck the Brasilians (sic) have faced different types of teams, one that can't defend, one that will defend, one that will attack and one that will try to play possession. Unlike Colombia who have pressed all their matches, are they even prepared to face a team that can attack properly? That can rotate around James? Brasil (sic) has been tested, heck they've been on an emotional roller coaster, whereas Colombia haven't had to sweat..."

The last four matches between these two have all been DRAWS, so a case could be made for that play here. I would expect Pekerman to employ many of the same strategies he has in the past to fluster and stymie Brazil, and it could easily work. Colombia has speed all over the pitch, and plenty of class. Their defense has been solid, but as stated above, the Brazilians have faced probably three opponents better than ANYONE that Colombia has seen. That sort of ability to progress through to this point has to have toughened them to an extent, and advancing through the penalties last out has to give them a bit of a jolt as well. But this game, like the first one, looks tighter than a snake's ass to me, and I can't call for a winner.

Prediction: Brazil 2, Colombia 2 (of course, it could be 1-1, but 2-2 seems just so much more fun). Brazil to win in 120 minutes, not penalties, 3-2.


Back tomorrow for some more about this and a writeup on the Belgies/Argentina game...

GL!
 
once again a great write-up with impeccable reasoning, especially of the social advantages of a ticos win--i am still chuckling about that. when u are out and about ask the ticas what they think of james (hammus) as a name. i think its awesome and am ready to name my next son after him but was stonewalled by my wife on that one, she thinks its a horrible name, and she was born and raised in the rich port (p.r.)

anyways, now i gotta go to wiki and find out the historical origin of froggies, i'm thinking WWI and something to do with uniforms, but it's prolly well before that.

good luck and happy 4th, hope you get to make up for all that work this weekend, when it comes to parties and women it's not quantity, its quality
 
wow. i was wrong on the froggies thing, did learn something though--not to say it to a frenchman's face


English people and French people have long been enemies, culturally, militarily and commercially. In fact the two countries have almost been at war more often than at peace. (Well, not really, but it sometimes seems that way when you browse the history books.) So insults between the two nations are common. The French have described the English as a nation of shopkeepers and the English have described the French as a nation of frog-eaters. So, boil it down over the years and "frog-eaters" becomes frogs or froggies.


...was that this term dated from the middle ages, when the French flag had a blue background with gold fleur-de-lys on it. The ignorant English, not knowing that the fleur-de-lys was supposed to be a flower, though that it represented a gold frog. Hence "frog" became a derogatory term for the French.



 
Thanks for the info Rexy. I like Colombia and Frogs to move on today and meet in the semis. Feel free to drop us a few of those baseball winners......
 
I have a bet on Germany PICK +120 in the semifinals. Neymar is out with a fractured vertebrae. The line will surely crash so I bet 4000 on Germany, banking on them being the better side (from what I've gathered). With Brazil in the semis, two more games are guaranteed and this tournament can't be disappointing for them, even after they lose to Germany. I predict a tight, hunkered 1-0 final for the Germans. Prolly means they'll lose 3-2 ;)

Back later with Argy/Belgium writeup.

:shake:
 
Good call w/Germans Rex, I grabbed the PK +105 myself and the advance at +107. Think without Neymar it's gonna be a pretty bad game to watch unless the Germans score early and make the home nation press the issue, but the class and the pressure will be there and it could get ugly with and early goal. Brazil been pretty reliant on his playmaking and I don't know how they score other than counter. The story will be Neymar but missing Thiago Silva is just a massive loss to the back, that's the real story imo and the yellow card rule needs revision. Nonetheless, great grab.
 
Thanks fellas. Sorry for the late writeup on Argentina/Belgium but this was the only game I targeted a bet on, and the line has not really moved any. History might be on the side of Argentina, but I really believe that counting outfield players and the keeper, the Belgians have a much superior talent base. It's not quite Messi & The Messiers for Argentina, but it's pretty close. They have had trouble breaking down most every foe, and it's not like they should be expected to late, especially when you consider Belgium have scored ALL of their goals (and secured maximum points in the group stage) after the 75th minute. Argentina should be keen to attack and that could be troublesome against a Belgian bunch that has an abundance of speed to exploit those open spaces left to the counter. Argentina will certainly continue to attack but this is a formidable bunch they're up against and they surely can't find the Argentine keeper as much as they found Howard earlier in the week. With Lukaku and Mertens available off the bench, there is ample chance to produce late in the game once again. While I believe Kompany will probably shackle Messi, it only takes one opening for La Pulga to change the game, and Argentina should be able to put some pressure on the back line of Belgium that the Americans could not. Each team will score, and probably more than once. I wasn't too keen on a side here, but with all the steam on Argentina, there are now two plays on this game (as compared to just the total being my only regular play of the entire round)

Prediction: Argentina 2, Belgium 2. Argentina win 3-2 in 120 minutes.
The plays: Belgium +0.5 -103 to win 2000
Argentina/Belgium OVER 2.25 -108 to win 3000
 
Tough day.

Added Netherlands PICK +125 in the next game against Argentina risking 4000. Will have writeups for both semifinals within the next couple of days. In the meantime, will have these two euro sides pending and be working on college football. Have Machida in the main event tonight and no other fights, and nothing in the tennis tomorrow.

:shake:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
I have a bet on Germany PICK +120 in the semifinals. Neymar is out with a fractured vertebrae. The line will surely crash so I bet 4000 on Germany, banking on them being the better side (from what I've gathered). With Brazil in the semis, two more games are guaranteed and this tournament can't be disappointing for them, even after they lose to Germany. I predict a tight, hunkered 1-0 final for the Germans. Prolly means they'll lose 3-2 ;)

Back later with Argy/Belgium writeup.

:shake:
Click to expand...

I could have never predicted this. I'll never forget this game for as long as I live. So, so shocking
 
In the consolation game, I'm riding with the Dutch and OVER. Figure I can't lose both, considering they are fielding their best XI. Brazil will certainly look to save face to an extent, but this is a depleted side that's once again missing Neymar. Those holes in the back will be somewhat filled by the return of Thiago Silva, but it looks like they will try to get forward more today, playing Maicon up out of the back and using both Willian and Jo in favor of Hulk and Fred. Young legs should help them, and they do have an extra day of rest to try to wear down the Dutch backline. This offense, while somewhat impotent the last two games, is still much more capable than the Mexican and Costa Rican units that Holland saw in earlier knockout rounds. Kuyt will certainly get forward again, and De Vrij, Clasie and Wijnaldum are all capable of giving service to each of the front three. Surprisingly, Robben, Sneijder and RVP feature in the XI here, and Huntelaar can come off the bench and provide a clearly capable target for a goal. I don't see any way that each team doesn't score, and figure multiple goals each way. Let's assume the third-place excitement continues, and even off short rest I'll call for the Dutch to win an exciting game, one that people won't forget as they fondly recall this tournament (I don't see much happening tomorrow, as I will explain in a later writeup) when they look back in a few years.

Prediction: Holland 3, Brazil 2
THe plays: Holland +0.25 -105 to win 1500
OVER 2.75 -106 to win 3000
 
In the final, I think the game total might be a smidge low at 2 and a small juice to OV, but both of these teams have defended well. I don't see any way for Argentina to break down the German defense, and even if they do, one of the best goaltenders if not the best in the world, will be waiting on them. Argentina have snuck through and battled, and were game in beating Holland in penalties last out. But this German machine just dispatched of the hosts in record-setting fashion, and have an extra day of rest here, which cannot be discounted after the volume of games that these teams have played over the last month. Argentina Team Total UNDER 1 was the bet I was targeting, but the only place (pinny) i can get a decent bet on that is offering 0.75. No thanks. Instead, I'll stick with the German machine to make a little history and become the first European team to win a World Cup in the Western Hemisphere. They should score sometime after the game settles in, perhaps between minutes 31-45 for those looking for props, and lead 1-0 at the half. Argentina will be forced to go forward more than they have in the whole tournament, having not yet played from behind in any of their six fixtures before today. This will result in a counter leading to Germany's second, and also allow them to park the bus in front of Neuer and milk it out.

Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0
The play: Germany +134 risking 1500

Hope it's been a profitable tournament for everyone, and I'll see you all in the "other" football forums in the coming days, especially with the All-Star break coming...

:shake:
 
Unfortunately, will be opposite today. GL .. It seems we both did well this WC. Usually on same side, but today I think the ARG defence comes to play. This will be a great, but BORING match. Casual futbol fans will hate it, but it will interesting for sure. Messi is due and I think he gets 1 today and that's all that will be needed.
 
I missed the boat on germany corners, but did find and out that will deal them live. I might take it if the opportunity comes, I like the fact they spread the ball wide and are not afraid to go to the corner and cross, while Argentina doesn't seem to create corner chances like the Germans...
 
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