June 14
Russia -1 -140
June 15
Uruguay -160
Morocco +130
Spain -105
June 16
Iceland +1.5 -110
Denmark pk -140
Nigeria/Croatia o2.5 +130
For Russia, I don't see them not getting a result here, they are a poor host but the Saudi's are the worst team in the tournament IMO, I think they might be lucky to get more than 1 goal at the tournament, and for as bad as Russia's lead up has been, and they have serious injuries to a bunch of their players, they still have probably the best 10 players on the pitch, led by Golovin who could be a breakout and end up at a big club in the fall. I wouldn't play the 1.5, but at home, vs a team who's 3 attacking midfielders had only 2 appearances between them in the league (Spain) between them since January.
Uruguay I like them to win the group, and I think they are flying under the radar a bit here. They finished 2nd in Conmebol, have a deadly strike force up top with Cavani and Suarez, and Godin marshalling the back 4. Difference this qualifying campaign and going forward is they have a ball playing midfield, in the past they were all hard men, who would look to tackle and hoof the ball up top, Vecino, Bentancur and Valverde can actually move the ball and 2 of them will start in central midfield, I think they are a sneaky bet for a potential QF team. Egypt are likely without Salah in the opener, and even if he plays he wont be fully fit, the manager has even said Uruguay are the best team in the group and they are planning on fighting for 2nd, which to me screams out no Salah, and I expect them to try and sit back here, which you can't against two top strikers who are also good in the air. I think Uruguay could put a few past them here.
Morocco another team I like quite a bit, they have a proven winner who knows African football at manager with Herve Renard, Ziyech is another one who could have a bit of a coming out, and I think has a field day vs Iran. They are strong in defense, having only conceded once in qualifying, and they know they have to push for a win here vs Iran, so there wont be any sitting back for a draw, which they can't because they are another team who struggles to score. But Iran, like the Saudi's might have a problem scoring all tournament.
The general consensus on Spain is they still play like they did the last few tournaments, short passing game led by Xavi with lots of build up and not a lot of attack. Which means I think they surprise a ton of people because they do press now and they do attack, they run through the 3 behind the striker, likely Costa to start but I believe eventually Aspas, playing around the top of the box and putting through balls into the box. Iniesta, Isco, and Silva are 3 of the best attacking creative mids in the world and can make any back 4 look silly. Strong back 4 and the best keeper in the world, plus the best DM in biscuits, means they aren't going to allow a ton of goals either.
On the other side Portugal, who I do like this tournament, but who have the toughest first game, they are still built around CR7 but up front at least have a lot of talent around him, B Silva, A Silva, and Guedes. This isn't a team relying on Eder up front like 2 years ago. But the one issue I see, especially vs a very creative attack like Spain is the back 4, especially the CB pairing, Pepe and Alves are not what they were, they are slow, and both are prone to fouls. Not only do I think Spain put both their heads on a swivel all day, but I think we could see a few cards here. It's just a very bad matchup, Portugal against a big striker, or a quick team that relies on crossing, I think they can put up the brick wall and defend enough, while allowing CR7 and crew enough of a chance to get some W's. But against a quick team with movement around the box, I see lots of struggles and a few Spain goals.
Iceland is more of a fade on the Argies, I think there is a really good chance they crash out early at this tournament. They are so talented up top, but they have gone too far away from their strength, in the past they just threw out 4 or 5 attackers with no real plan, but now they are planning only to use Messi and Aguero it seems, leaving Dybala on the bench, when a simple switch of taking off a winger, which may actually happen with what happened to Lanzini (could be a blessing) would make them more dangerous. On the back end they are very very slow, very slow, big and slow, and prone to a reducer which means plenty of cards, and they also allow a bunch of free kicks, which is dangerous against a team like Iceland. I am of two thoughts on Iceland, I do think they are such a good story that they are a bit overrated, but they performed so good in the group stages of qualifying that clearly something is there. What they do have going for them is consistency, this is a team that for the most part hasn't changed, and they do know their roles, so I don't know how far they go here, but I dont expect them to get blown out.
Will add thoughts on the other 2 later on, but to sum up. High on denmark and while I see a lot of people high on Peru I really think Concacaf struggles this tournament, for the other one, both teams can score and want to attack, expect an open game and think stylistically it could be one of the most exciting group stage games
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