WNBA plays

[RBD]

WNBA record: 0-0

Nothing in any of tonight's games fits any of the handicapping methods I use to find sides and totals, so I went hunting for a prop bet.
(It's been a month since I had any WNBA action, I gotta have something tonight.)

I'm thinking that Natasha Cloud is going to have a good night vs Chi.

Just some basic stuff:

She avg's 12.4 PPG.

The books hung an 11' on this one.

She's surpassed that # in seven of her last ten games.
Of the three where she fell short, she landed on 11 twice, missing by a hook.
On the other one, she landed on 10, and that was vs Connecticut, the best D in the league.
I like those #'s.

With 3 of 5 Phoenix starters coming off of playing in the Olympics and not getting the rest the other players have, I'm looking for 35+ minutes for Natasha and maybe a few extra plays called for her, enough to get me past the 11' I need tonight.

Good luck to all with your play today.

 

[RBD]

Oops, was surfin' around the forum and just saw the rule re: units/$ must be added if you post records.
GREAT rule by the way, keeps the touts and cheater boys out, and keeps the forum clean and professional.

I always post a record, an honest one, beecuz:
1) It's my nature.
2) I have integrity.
3) How else will posters know whether to ride with me or Fade?
4) I'm not a tout chumming for losing bettors who are desperate to recoup losses (so I can take advantage of their situation via my fake "winnings.")
5) I'm not a needy attention 'ho seeking kudos or attention.
6) I loathe cheaters and frauds.

I'll use a standard $110/100 for all bets, makes it easy to track.
And I'll post accurate prices when I play something with extra juice, which I avoid as much as possible but is often difficult to do with props though.
My play today is Natasha Cloud Ov 11' points, -115.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great write-up, thanks!

 

[chipnotized]

I'll tag along on the Cloud Over....good luck us.

 

[RBD]

"I'll tag along on the Cloud over."

Nooooo.

In the first quarter she took ONE shot.

It's halfway through the second quarter and she's taken . . . ONE shot in the entire game.
Ugly.

Griner had the ball under the basket, she was covered so she kicks it out to a wide open Cloud and she . . . passes the ball.

I was counting on her getting more time and shots in the fourth quarter when hopefully some of the starters will be benched. Now I'm going to need her to go off in the 3rd and 4th.
But I can't get the points if she doesn't start shooting her normal per game average.

 

[B.A.R.]

"I'll tag along on the Cloud over."

Nooooo.

In the first quarter she took ONE shot.

It's halfway through the second quarter and she's taken . . . ONE shot in the entire game.
Ugly.

Griner had the ball under the basket, she was covered so she kicks it out to a wide open Cloud and she . . . passes the ball.

I was counting on her getting more time and shots in the fourth quarter when hopefully some of the starters will be benched. Now I'm going to need her to go off in the 3rd and 4th.
But I can't get the points if she doesn't start shooting her normal per game average.

Skunker.

That happens though. Looking back at her boxes this is obviously out of the ordinary.

Good capping pays off, looking forward to the next play.

 

[RBD]

Thanks, B.A.R. And CPA-hole.
Chipnotized - I owe ya one.
Yeah, I know, we're all big boys, nobody forces us to bet, we make our own choices and live with them, but I want to repay and say "thanks" to the first guy who stepped up here at CTG and said, "I'll ride with you on this one."
So, next time I have a play that grades out at my highest % I'll post it here with a note calling your attention to it in case you'd like to play it.

WNBA Record: 0-1, -115.
Review: Natasha Cloud Ov 11', -115
I study my losses.
I try to learn from my losses.
One of many components that go into winning at sports betting is not making mistakes. But it's inevitable that we will, so the key is not REPEATING mistakes.
I'm the first to say "I blew it on that call" when I miss something in my 'capping, or I make a mistake.
I'm not about ego, I'm about learning, and you can learn from some of your losses.
I took an L with Cloud last night but I can't fault my read on the play, there's nothing to learn, my #'s were okay. Early on I thought the problem was that she wasn't taking any shots, but then she started shooting and the real problem became clear - she wasn't just having an off night, she was having an off-ful (awful) night.
She was 1-7 awful. She was the-coach-benched-her-for-a-while-awful. She had a bad night. It happens.

The question is . . . does she bounce back? Do I use her again tonight?

On the "DON'T DO IT" side is this - will she get her usual allotment of game time, 33 minutes or will Tibbets reduce her playing time after a poor performance?
On the "GO FOR IT!" side I have:

In the previous two games vs Indiana she scored 15 and 0 (she didn't play in the second game.)

Tonight is the second time Phoenix has played in B2B's (Back to Back nights.) The previous time it was back to back road games, the same sequence as tonight.
And in then the second game she scored 21.

Bounce back opportunities?
The 3 pts she scored last night was tied for her lowest score of the season in a game where she played her normal amount of minutes.
After that game, Tibbets played her for 33 minutes in the next game (lessening the concern he might cut into her playing time tonight.)
She scored 11. And that game was against the first place Liberty, the third best D in the league.

I believe in redemption (or I just talked myself into it anyway.)
The # was at 10', -135 earlier today. That # got jumped, 11', -111 now.
I'm on it.

Also, as I mentioned in Chip's post yesterday, "Teams in Gm 2 of B2B's' in 2024 are at 9-3 Over." I'm on it again tonight.
Also I like The Caitlins, going for the series sweep.
As with the total, I bought it early, got -2' (and 173') but -3, 174 are the common #'s now so that's what I'll use here.
(Posting picks with #'s that aren't readily available to most bettors is not helping anyone. It's the vanity ploy of an attention craving wanker.)

And I have the Sun.
I have a handicapping method I use to identify teams that should be the Favorite.
It says Dallas should be the Fav tonight.
It also sucks, with a record of 2-5 this season, a decent Fade.
Dallas also sucks, so as Spackler would say, "So I got that going for me."
And it doesn't hurt that Con has the best D in the league.
Only thing I don't like about this is Con is one of those nemesis teams for me, you know, the ones that win when you bet against them and lose when you bet on them.
I'm a data hound, I track all kinds of stats, including my record for my bets on every team. And I lost more Con games in the first half of the season than any other team.
Hoping the second half treats me better.

Ind -3
Phx/Ind Ov 174
Sun -5'
Cloud Ov 11'. -111

GOOD LUCK to all on your plays tonight.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks, B.A.R. And CPA-hole.
Chipnotized - I owe ya one.
Yeah, I know, we're all big boys, nobody forces us to bet, we make our own choices and live with them, but I want to repay and say "thanks" to the first guy who stepped up here at CTG and said, "I'll ride with you on this one."
So, next time I have a play that grades out at my highest % I'll post it here with a note calling your attention to it in case you'd like to play it.

WNBA Record: 0-1, -115.
Review: Natasha Cloud Ov 11', -115
I study my losses.
I try to learn from my losses.
One of many components that go into winning at sports betting is not making mistakes. But it's inevitable that we will, so the key is not REPEATING mistakes.
I'm the first to say "I blew it on that call" when I miss something in my 'capping, or I make a mistake.
I'm not about ego, I'm about learning, and you can learn from some of your losses.
I took an L with Cloud last night but I can't fault my read on the play, there's nothing to learn, my #'s were okay. Early on I thought the problem was that she wasn't taking any shots, but then she started shooting and the real problem became clear - she wasn't just having an off night, she was having an off-ful (awful) night.
She was 1-7 awful. She was the-coach-benched-her-for-a-while-awful. She had a bad night. It happens.

The question is . . . does she bounce back? Do I use her again tonight?

On the "DON'T DO IT" side is this - will she get her usual allotment of game time, 33 minutes or will Tibbets reduce her playing time after a poor performance?
On the "GO FOR IT!" side I have:

In the previous two games vs Indiana she scored 15 and 0 (she didn't play in the second game.)

Tonight is the second time Phoenix has played in B2B's (Back to Back nights.) The previous time it was back to back road games, the same sequence as tonight.
And in then the second game she scored 21.

Bounce back opportunities?
The 3 pts she scored last night was tied for her lowest score of the season in a game where she played her normal amount of minutes.
After that game, Tibbets played her for 33 minutes in the next game (lessening the concern he might cut into her playing time tonight.)
She scored 11. And that game was against the first place Liberty, the third best D in the league.

I believe in redemption (or I just talked myself into it anyway.)
The # was at 10', -135 earlier today. That # got jumped, 11', -111 now.
I'm on it.

Also, as I mentioned in Chip's post yesterday, "Teams in Gm 2 of B2B's' in 2024 are at 9-3 Over." I'm on it again tonight.
Also I like The Caitlins, going for the series sweep.
As with the total, I bought it early, got -2' (and 173') but -3, 174 are the common #'s now so that's what I'll use here.
(Posting picks with #'s that aren't readily available to most bettors is not helping anyone. It's the vanity ploy of an attention craving wanker.)

And I have the Sun.
I have a handicapping method I use to identify teams that should be the Favorite.
It says Dallas should be the Fav tonight.
It also sucks, with a record of 2-5 this season, a decent Fade.
Dallas also sucks, so as Spackler would say, "So I got that going for me."
And it doesn't hurt that Con has the best D in the league.
Only thing I don't like about this is Con is one of those nemesis teams for me, you know, the ones that win when you bet against them and lose when you bet on them.
I'm a data hound, I track all kinds of stats, including my record for my bets on every team. And I lost more Con games in the first half of the season than any other team.
Hoping the second half treats me better.

Ind -3
Phx/Ind Ov 174
Sun -5'
Cloud Ov 11'. -111

GOOD LUCK to all on your plays tonight.

Great great stuff.

I'm rolling with your card.

 

[HUNT]

BEAVER BALL!

 

[RBD]

Thanks, B.A.R.
But tread lightly please, WNBA is the smallest betting unit I use.
On the season, I'm down (about 1 unit and minor juice after last night), 10-9 in June, 10-10 in July, and I'm off a loss in my last play. (Yes, I know the rule - no records for plays not given here - but somehow I don't think anybody's going to accuse me of fake records or bragging about a being .500! A few dog prices have kept my head just about at waterline level.)
WNBA are TV action/fun, small $ bets for me.
College football is where I do my best, though previous success does not guarantee future success - it's sports betting, ANYTHING can happen.
I'll start my season-long post for college asap, no hurry, the line has already moved against anyone who might want to try the play, Oklahoma.
Yes, a LOT of points, but I have some stats to support it as I'll note when I post it.

Luck to us all tonight...

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks, B.A.R.
But tread lightly please, WNBA is the smallest betting unit I use.
On the season, I'm down (about 1 unit and minor juice after last night), 10-9 in June, 10-10 in July, and I'm off a loss in my last play. (Yes, I know the rule - no records for plays not given here - but somehow I don't think anybody's going to accuse me of fake records or bragging about a being .500! A few dog prices have kept my head just about at waterline level.)
WNBA are TV action/fun, small $ bets for me.
College football is where I do my best, though previous success does not guarantee future success - it's sports betting, ANYTHING can happen.
I'll start my season-long post for college asap, no hurry, the line has already moved against anyone who might want to try the play, Oklahoma.
Yes, a LOT of points, but I have some stats to support it as I'll note when I post it.

Luck to us all tonight...

What a night so far!

Halfway home in the last one.

 

[B.A.R.]

Sweep!

 

[CPA-hole]

Yes, Sir. Nice night!

 

[ilovetobet]

Good work

 

[chipnotized]

Nice start to the Sun bets for the second half.
GL

 

[RBD]

Thanks for the kudos, guys, much appreciated.

WNBA Record: 4-1, +285

Last time I was here, Natasha Cloud had me singing Bob's "Redemption Song."
She sailed Over her point total of 11', scoring 19, coming back off a poor performance that cost me a loss the night before.

The Sun covered the -5' winning by 18, and the Indiana Caitlins KO'd the Griners, winning by 9 laying 3, and topping the Over by 13.
I caught Indy at the beginning of their current hot streak that has them winning 6 of 7 since returning from the Olympic break, solidifying a playoff spot to the delight of fans (and the league offices.)

Got one for tonight.
Don't mistakenly interpret the weeks between picks to mean I was waiting for something good, or that tonight's play is really strong, that's not the case.
I've just been busy and spending most of my 'capping time on football. Tonight is just a regular pick I think I have a slight edge on, normal bet size (BIG advocate of bettors not varying unit size.)

Two of the four different formulas I use to identify totals to buy say that the Wash/Dal game tonight stays Under.
One says it's a 50-50 shot, the other says the game has a 65% chance to stay Under. The 50-50 one has a long history of doing well on Unders so I'm hoping tonight's game gets the play heading back into it's normal W% territory.

These two have met twice this season, and the games landed on 166 and then 176.
In the second game they were playing in back to back nights, and the game went Over by 13 points.
I've mentioned that spot (game two of back to back nights) in a previous post.
B2B's are common in the NBA but rare in the W, and the ladies (?) don't seem to be able to play good D in game twos.
The current record is 16-7, 69% for the Over.
There is one spot left for this scenario this season in case you want to mark your calendar.
It's not a definite play but worth taking a look at for a possible Over, depending on other factors.

The current number on tonight's game is 174.
That's 8 points more than their first meeting, and just 2 points fewer than their second, but that second meeting was game two of back to back, which, as noted, tend to have higher scores. Both teams are rested tonight.

The main concern here is the Dallas defense. They're lifting their skirts for a league worst 90.7 per game.
Countering that ugly stat for playing the Under in this one is the fact that Wash only scores a near-the-bottom of the league avg of 79 per game.

The game opened 170', is up to 174' right now, and I see 175 starting to show up.
It's moving in the right direction for playing the Under, no hurry, monitor your screen(s) and wait to buy it.
But don't wait until too close to tip off in case guys who took the opening number Over do a buy back to try for a middle.
I'll drop in later with the number I get, if I get busy and can't I'll use the WAN.

Wash/Dal Un (wait to buy)

GOOD LUCK to all on your plays tonight.

Update: 4:42 pm. Still an odd 175 or two out there but the common number is 174'. And that's my number for this game.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice info as always.

Interesting that 16-7 on b2b overs.

In the notebook for next year!

 

[RBD]

And THAT is one of the things that separates winning sports bettors from the overwhelming majority - ones who lose.
Keep a logbook where you chart plays and reminders. Make notes for future use, don't rely on memory.

And at the beginning of each new season look back on your notes from last year to see what worked then, and just as importantly what didn't work.