WNBA '24

chipnotized

chipnotized

Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
We're letting women drive and there's even women singers, so I guess they can have a chance to siphon off some of my bankroll.

1u risk on all plays unless otherwise noted.

Aug 15

NY/LA U 168.5 -115
...caught one of my rec books (bwin) with a stale line. The board is painted 164.

Aug 16

Pho/Ind O 173.5 -111
...unrested vs rested overs have been profitable
 
"I guess they (women) can have a chance to siphon off some of my bankroll."

An equal opportunity giver! I like that. I'm with ya.

Good read on the Phx/Indy game Over tomorrow, I'm on it too.
I have the # on "Teams in Gm 2 of B2B's' in 2024 at 9-3 Over now (I could be off by one, don't have my stats with me) after the Chi/NY game right before the break
That was a tight one.
It opened 165 (always get these spots early as the # usually goes higher.)
By tip off it was at 166'.
It was looking bleak, sitting at 164 with just 24 seconds left on the clock.
NY, up by 12 pts, has the ball, and the Over is in danger of the Liberty dribbling out the clock.
BUT . . . Kayla Thornton (no relation to Sean) (someone will get that reference, yes?) heaves up a trey and nails it!

I expect the Caitlins, second best O (PPG) will put up plenty on Phx tomorrow night.
(If I can find the time, I'll do a record check, Ov/Un, for team totals on the team that didn't play the night before. If I see anyting of value I'll post it.)

For guys that like to play the second half, if there's a low scoring first half in one of these spots look at the Over in the second.
That's when tired legs (from playing the previous night) start to wear out, don't get back down court after their possession, and the overall play on D gets a little sloppy.

Good luck to you tonight.
 
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1-1
- 0.11u

Aug 18

Conn/Atl U 154.5 -105
..early Sunday start time Under

Chi/Pho O 165.5 -110
...unrested vs rested Over

Chi +7.5 -101
...fading home faves off the road
 
3-5
- 2.06u

Aug 21

Pho/Atl U 165.5 -102
...Unders on teams that have put together a bit of a streak of wins & covers--assumption that the D is there

Min/LV O 167.5 -105
..Overs on teams in a run of not covering spreads

Tauresi--Pho O 4.5 Assists +200
...outlier odds play at 365. Most other shops are in the +120 range

--had Vegas -5.5 on the list, but I got faked out by a move to 6 that saw immediate buy-back...20min later they pounded it right to -7
 
5-6
- 1.13u

Aug 22

Dal/NY U 174.5 +101
..back to the well on the Unders with teams that are winning lately. Hoping to hit the high water mark...saw a bit of resistance when it drifted up to 176.
 
6-8
- 2.12u

Aug 26

Ind/Atl U 166 -103
...zig-zag total play--under after both went over

Wash +10.5 +100
Wash/Sea O 162 -107
...playing teams and overs with squads that are big dogs following their last game being faves or slight dogs

NY/Phx O 167 -102
...Overs on teams that have had a winning streak snapped
 
8-10
- 2.15u

Sept 8

Min/Wsh U 161 -105
...early start with both coming off Overs

Atl/Ind U 170.5 -110
Dal/Chi U 171 -104
...overtime and quick turnaround inflates the total creating value on the Under
 
Nice win, congrats Chipno.

Final score makes it look like it was easy, and it should have been (how many times did they take turns missing layups??!!) but it got tight at the end.

It was sitting at 160 with just 32 seconds left, Sea up by 8,(Burrell missing BOTH free throws at the 1:20 mark and one of two at the 21 second mark didn't help.)
LA had the ball. If they don't score it was likely that down by 8 with just 26 seconds left, LA wouldn't foul and Sea would dribble out the clock.
Fortunately Jackson gets a layup, putting it at 162 and the fouling/free throw festival began.
Like I said, tight at the end but that's half the fun of it. no? (the other half, obviously - cashing the ticket!)

I had Gm 2 of B2B's (back-to-back games) at 17-7 going into last night, 18-7 now, 72%.
I ran some #'s two weeks ago, checking to see if there was any edge betting against the team playing in the B2B situation but they actually had a slight edge ATS (don't have my charts with me, I think it was 12-10 for the B2B team.)
The B2B Ov/Un spot is one that goes on the check list reminder for next season.

Good luck over the last four days on the schefdule and in the post season.
 
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RBD said:
Nice win, congrats Chipno.

Final score makes it look like it was easy, and it should have been (how may times did they take turns missing layups??!!) but it got tight at the end.

It was sitting at 160 with just 32 seconds left, Sea up by 8,(Burrell missing BOTH free throws at the 1:20 mark and one of two at the 21 second mark didn't help.)
LA had the ball. If they don't score it was likely that down by 8 with just 26 seconds left, LA wouldn't foul and Sea would dribble out the clock.
Fortunately Jackson gets a layup, putting it at 162 and the fouling/free throw festival began.
Like I said, tight at the end but that's half the fun of it. no? (the other half, obviously - cashing the ticket!)

I had Gm 2 of B2B's (back-to-back games) at 17-7 going into last night, 18-7 now, 72%.
I ran some #'s two weeks ago, checking to see if there was any edge betting against the team playing in the B2B situation but they actually had a slight edge ATS (don't have my charts with me, I think it was 12-10 for the B2B team.)
The B2B Ov/Un spot is one that goes on the check list reminder for next season.

Good luck over the last four days on the schefdule and in the post season.
Click to expand...
Thanks RBD.
The b2b Overs have had an exceptional season...another one coming tomorrow with Dallas welcoming Seattle to town after tonight's tilt with NY.
 
"The b2b Overs have had an exceptional season...another one coming tomorrow with Dallas welcoming Seattle to town after tonight's tilt with NY."

Whoah! (Is that how you spell it, w-h-o-a-h?") Anyway. . .
Whoah - I had last night's game as the final opportunity for this season. I'll have to double check my log book when I get home later.
THANK you for the heads up (especially since Dallas can give up 100 on any given night.)

This is what they call Karma, I guess.
Take a minute out of your life to do something nice, something simple like say "Congrats" to someone and the universe sends something good back your way.
Well, maybe not the universe, but you, anyway.
Again - thanks for the heads up. I was done for the reg season and began prepping for the playoffs, now I'll take a look at one more game.
 
Double checked my charts and you are correct.
I missed this final spot.
For additional info, here's what I have charted for Dallas.
They have been in the spot twice this season. Here's what I have.

Date, sequence (first game then second game, Hm/Hm, Hm/Rd, Rd/Rd, Rd/Hm), opponent, line, result, combined score.

5/26, Rd/Rd, against LA, total 165, Over, 167 (Over by two points)

6/23, Rd/Rd, against Washington, total 163, Over, 176 (Over by 13 pts)

2-0 Over, a stat in favor of the Over tonight.

Tonight:
9/13, Hm/Hm, against Seattle, total 173.

So, for a team stat they are 2-0 to the Over.
I took a quick glance at my charts, to see the league-wide stat for when the sequence was Hm/Hm.
Here's what I see:
8/24, Minnesota, result - Over
8/18, LV, result - Under
8/11, LA, result - Over
6/7, Wash, result - Over
6/23, Wash, result - Over

So, four of five Hm/Hm went Over. Another stat in favor of the Over tonight.
I'm a little surprised.
IF the play is based on a team having tired legs when playing in game 2 of back-to-back nights, leading to them not getting back on defense, especially in the second half when the tiredness would start to show, then you would think that it would be easier playing B2B when there's no travel involved.
Travel adds to weariness.

Anyway, food for thought, and a good subject for some handicapping homework - I'll chart the record for all four sequences and see if any of them has a higher win percentage (I think Rd/Rd would be the highest, but that's what handicapping is for - taking the "think" out of it and knowing for sure what the stats are so you can use them effectively.)

If I see anything of value I'll post it so you can make a note of it for use next year if you'd like.

Good luck if you play this one tonight, and throughout the playoffs.
 
Without taking into account home or away, I've got a record this season of 13-5 to the Over for an unrested team (b2b) playing a rested team. I'll be keen to see what you come up with.

As for tonight, I'm reducing size for the last one of the season. I saw the total get dummied this morning and I got greedy and wanted 170, but I missed the move back up.

Sept 13

0.5u

Sea/Dal O 173 -110
 
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