WNBA 2025

[RBD]

Record: 0-0

NBA kind of bores me (although last night's Ind/NY game was a good one to watch, in part because I don't like any of the New York teams and I enjoyed watching the Knicks blow an important game they should have won) but I find the WNBA interesting, in a train wreck kind of way.

Example - I saw Kelsey and the Sparks put up a 7 point 3rd quarter last night.
Yes, seven, as in one-fewer-than-eight.
They followed that with a 33 point 4th.
A 7, followed by a 33.
Welcome to the WNBA.

Can you see a similar disparity of quality play in the NBA?
Sure, maybe not as ridiculous, but close.
But here's the thing of it, for me anyway - I expect more from the NBA, they're supposed to be professional athletes. I have no such misconceptions about the WNBA, so when they have a shot clock violation turnover TWO PLAYS IN A ROW it's not irritating, it's amusing (unless I have the Over.)

When I have money on an NBA game I have no tolerance for amateurish play (like taking a two-point shot when you're down by three with only four seconds left on the game clock - I'm talking to you Kelsey Plum.) So the WNBA amuses me and I enjoy watching it more than the pros.

Too early in the season for me to have any data accumulated on my handicapping models to steer me in a strong direction for a side or total, but I have a slight edge on both tonight based on my numbers, and I want action so I'lI start with some small $ bets.

There's only two games on the schedule tonight Ind/Atl and NY/Chi, and only one of them is televised.
Guess which one.
Yep, it's the Caitlin's. OF COURSE.
They won their first game against the Chicago Bullies, then lost their second game against what appears to be a very mediocre Atlanta Dream team.

Tonight they're -4' Rd Favs with a total of 173'.
Layin' 4 and the hook on the road is giving a little too much respect to the Caitlin's if you ask me, but I'll bite and lay the wood.

And I bought the total too (what the hell, if you're tossing darts and having fun, why throw just a single one?)
Each team has only played two games so the data hasn't got much value but . . .
Atlanta is averaging 90.5 PPG, making them the number four offense in the league.
And they're surrendering 92 PPG, making them the second worst defense in the league.
Indiana is only giving up an average of 74.5.

Got to start somewhere, why not tonight?

Pacers -4'
Ind/Atl Un 173'

 

[KJ]

No need to qualify any sport

I'm trying to make it a point to watch more WNBA and MLS this season and I've despised the notion in the past. Helps that half the family are Hawkeye fans so it's something a very female dominated family can identify with when I want to talk sports, but it's going to be a lengthy work in progress. Fwiw it's an infinitely better product than it was even three years ago (the last time I watched a game before a few minutes of a game this weekend). Kinda the same with MLS, taking the Euro guys as they approach retirement has at least brought some drama to that league.

Don't have it in me to bet it just yet but I'll at least be paying attention fbow. Good luck on stuff going forward.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff.

Definitely softer markets at times in the WNBA.

I'll be involved here and there -- as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Record: 0-0

NBA kind of bores me (although last night's Ind/NY game was a good one to watch, in part because I don't like any of the New York teams and I enjoyed watching the Knicks blow an important game they should have won) but I find the WNBA interesting, in a train wreck kind of way.

Example - I saw Kelsey and the Sparks put up a 7 point 3rd quarter last night.
Yes, seven, as in one-fewer-than-eight.
They followed that with a 33 point 4th.
A 7, followed by a 33.
Welcome to the WNBA.

Can you see a similar disparity of quality play in the NBA?
Sure, maybe not as ridiculous, but close.
But here's the thing of it, for me anyway - I expect more from the NBA, they're supposed to be professional athletes. I have no such misconceptions about the WNBA, so when they have a shot clock violation turnover TWO PLAYS IN A ROW it's not irritating, it's amusing (unless I have the Over.)

When I have money on an NBA game I have no tolerance for amateurish play (like taking a two-point shot when you're down by three with only four seconds left on the game clock - I'm talking to you Kelsey Plum.) So the WNBA amuses me and I enjoy watching it more than the pros.

Too early in the season for me to have any data accumulated on my handicapping models to steer me in a strong direction for a side or total, but I have a slight edge on both tonight based on my numbers, and I want action so I'lI start with some small $ bets.

There's only two games on the schedule tonight Ind/Atl and NY/Chi, and only one of them is televised.
Guess which one.
Yep, it's the Caitlin's. OF COURSE.
They won their first game against the Chicago Bullies, then lost their second game against what appears to be a very mediocre Atlanta Dream team.

Tonight they're -4' Rd Favs with a total of 173'.
Layin' 4 and the hook on the road is giving a little too much respect to the Caitlin's if you ask me, but I'll bite and lay the wood.

And I bought the total too (what the hell, if you're tossing darts and having fun, why throw just a single one?)
Each team has only played two games so the data hasn't got much value but . . .
Atlanta is averaging 90.5 PPG, making them the number four offense in the league.
And they're surrendering 92 PPG, making them the second worst defense in the league.
Indiana is only giving up an average of 74.5.

Got to start somewhere, why not tonight?

Pacers -4'
Ind/Atl Un 173'

Great work!!

Take that front door cover and run! .

Under was just great capping!

Salute.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 2-0
Review: I thought that number, -4', was showing a little too much respect for Indiana on the Rd and my opinion was accurate. I barely slid by with a win by the hook, needing Sophie Cunningham to hit a free throw with 5 seconds left in the game The Under was a little easier.

I bought a side in the Wash/Phx game but before I get to that I want to share some numbers on a situational spot that I tracked last season.

WNBA teams don't play a lot of back-to-back games but when they do the record for the Over in the second game in 2024 was 17-6.
That's a 74% situational spot to play ON.
(That record may differ from others you might see, it's all dependent upon what line was used - the opener or the closing number.)

It's important to remember - In handicapping, what worked one season may not work the next season. But you sure as hell want to be aware of it when you doing your handicapping in the current year.

As with all my methods I also tracked a few subsystems, plays within the play, to see if I can improve on the W percentage and uncover a stronger situational spot to play on.
Here are some more numbers to consider if you're 'capping the WNBA this year:

Sequence
Obviously, teams play differently at home than on the road.
Where they're playing affects their PPG on offense and defense.
And some teams don't travel well.
This subset breaks the numbers down to factor in the sequence of where the games were played, a home game preceded by a home game the night before, a Road game after playing at Hm the night before, etc.
Here's the breakdown:

Hm/Hm 4-1
Hm/Rd 5-2
Rd/Rd 4-3
Rd/Hm 4-0

All spots have winning records but teams playing back-to-back Road games are only one game away from not being profitable.
Just something to keep in mind this season.

Day of the Week
Most days have the same feel to them, but not all.
Friday nights may benefit from a higher energy crowd.
NOBODY likes to go to work on Monday and some sports teams are no different.
And, when you play most of your games on evenings during the week, Saturday and Sunday early games have a different feel to them, different atmosphere and different outcomes for some teams.

I track those four days and here's what I have:
Friday 4-0
Saturday 2-1
Sunday 8-3
Monday 0-1

Factor in days of the week or not, it's up to the individual 'capper.
But for me, I like to have as much information as possible at hand when I'm deciding whether to buy a play or not.


I'm sharing this information because today we have the first game that qualifies for this situational spot:
Con at Atl

The Dream played last night. At home vs Dallas.
They're home today which puts them in the H-H sequence.
Last night's game stayed Under by 11 points.
(Somewhere in my notes I have the record for game two of B2B's broken down into whether game one was an Under or Over, but I have to hunt through my notes to find it. Top of my head I think the stronger play is when game one was an Over. I'll drop by with the record after I dig it up.)

Atlanta was 0-0 in this spot last season (yes, in addition to the league based records I also track the records based on how individual teams perform when they're in this spot. ALWAYS looking for an edge, anywhere I can find it.)

Today's game opened 159 and is down to 157'.
There's extra juice on the Over and I'm not expecting the number to get any better so if anyone likes the Over they should grab it now.

The game doesn't fit any of the three different models I use for handicapping totals so I'm strictly playing this one based on last year's performance. Yes, as I said, what worked one season may not work the next but this spot was good to me last year so I'll take a chance and ride it the first time it's in play this season.

The Sun are offensively challenged, third worse offense in the league.
Fortunately they suck on defense too, they're also the third worst defense in the league.
I'm going to need Atlanta to surpass their team total and get most of the scoring done for me today.

Also . . .
I have two different 'capping models for trying to determine where the books made the wrong team the Fav (WF1 and WF2, just for record keeping and referral purposes. I have to call them something.)
WF1 says Phoenix and LV are Wrong Favs today.
WF1 is 5-6 on the season, 3-2 at home, 1-4 on the Rd.
Seattle's at home, Washington's on the road.
I'll ride the stronger number (1-4) and Fade the Mystics.
The line opened -7, now down to -4 (too much respect for Washington, I think.)

My buys:
Con/Atl Ov 157'
Phx - (I'm waiting to buy this one, the number is moving in my favor and there's 6 hours left before tip off. I'll wait a little longer to see if I can get it down a hook or more, but won't wait too long in case people that took the +7 look to get a buy back, angling for a middle.)

Update: posted the write up above, went to check the lines and I see buy backs already started, 4/4' now, so I bought the -4

Update #2: Lines moving quickly this morning (doesn't help when you have a loooong write up.) 157' is gone, so is -4, so I'll use 159 and -4' here, lines that are still readily available.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 3-1
Review: Missed with the first "B2B Gm 2 Play Over" play of the season. Got it back with the late game on Phoenix.

Just a heads up in case anyone is looking at New York/Washington. The Liberty played last night at Home.
The post above this one has records for these B2B spots when they happen on a Friday night, and when it's a Road game after a home game.

For anyone looking for something more team specific, NY was in this spot three times last season. All three games went Over.

Atlanta is in the same spot as Phoenix was when I used them vs the Mystic last time I was in.
The 2025 record for this play when it's a Rd team is 2-5, a solid Fade thus far so I'm buying it.

Sea -4'

 

[KJ]

Pissed I didn't just unload on Washington Wed night against Indiana. Fever were 4.5 faves w/o Kaitlin. There is a really soft market in this sport for sure.

 

[skanless13]

Sun for me tonight. Line seems a bit high