Wk 9 MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS ( 29-17-1 ATS) and my personal POINT SPREAD RATINGS ( 16-10 YTD )

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
What's up CTG FAMILY ??

Really appreciate anyone who takes the time to read through my degen ramblings ...

What a fantastic weekend on tap for us sports investors.. College football has Tennessee vs Georgia , nice looking NFL card , Breeders Cup from Keeneland Friday & Saturday, NHL & NBA , and my personal favorite local section 6 football semifinal playoffs ...

Last week was the first losing week of the season for the MADDEN 23 Simulations, and whoa was it atrocious 1-6 ....My personal point spread ratings also had abysmal results at 1-4 ....

When it comes to wagering I've donked back some good money the last 9 days
across all wagering platforms.. Including 3-7 on the NFL in week 8 (-$1248) , -over $1740 on MAC football , nearly $200 on the ponies and almost another $200 on HS football.

Still playing with plenty of house money as I've been on the best 2 year run of my life up over $97K as posted "somewhere else"" .....

ALL of which doesn't mean diddly poop moving forward !!!! LOL


ANYWAYS

Enough RAMBLING
Let's get to GAMBLING

:moneyeyes:


BEST of HEALTH , HAPPINESS, WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK to ALL !!
 
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Shout-out to all the Western New Yorkers and Southern Ontarioians who came over to CAPPING THE GAME ...
This is a much better place

Begging you to not only read the excellent threads from the very knowledgeable posters here, PLEASE JOIN and contribute...it only takes a few quick seconds .....

As promised I'll predict all of this weekend's SECTION 6 ( WNY ) HS football playoff games....



CLASS. AA ( Games played Friday night

1. LANCASTER. 39/38.5/39.5
4 NIAGARA FALLS.

Lancaster won during the regular season 45-6 ...If this rises over 42 I'll be tempted to take the FALLS with all those points ...Doubt it bet more than $50 though .




2. ORCHARD PARK
3. BENNETT. -20.5/20.5/20

BENNETT -20 -115
$1955/$1700

This spread has dropped out of the sky since released last Friday at 28.5 ...All 3 of the other city schools lost last week including a major blowout upset of South Park by Clarence 41-18 as a 28 point dog ...

Bennett should be full of piss and vinegar after a clerical error forced them to forfeit 6 games this season including a 52-10 win at ORCHARD PARK..
WNY has a long history of screwing over the city schools when it comes to sports ...Up until just a few years ago they were not even allowed to compete in post season playoffs vs suburban schools..They only had the all city Harvard Cup championship game on Thanksgiving..
This should get really ugly , I'm praying the line drops below 20 and I'll drop $2500+ more down
.
Unfortunately due to a double hamstring pull ill be stuck watching this on the NFHS network instead of being in OP in all orange... .
 
Point Spread Ratings

BILLS 104.10. PSR -11.86

JETS 90.22. HF +2.02.

NO ATS play is currently suggested on this game ..Although the ratings are expected to change when inactives are announced ...


What a weird possibly shady second half on Sunday night. Appeared the BILLS did everything they could to not score more than a FG after scoring 24 in the first half in utter domination ...
Meanwhile the Packers were content mostly running the football down double digits ...Also the BILLS stopped stacking the box with safety Demar Hamlin ( worked great in first half ) .....Stange to see Rodgers and 2 WR'S laughing and joking on the sidelines in the final minutes ...

Anyways



McDermott is huge on Division games, maybe they just shifted focus at half Sunday night to the Jets.....
McDermott loves posting bulletin board material all over One BILLS DRIVE ...This week Jets DT John Franklin-Myers gave him the perfect ammo speaking about Josh Allen

“He does a good job of breaking tackles and getting into guys’ heads and baiting guys into certain things, pleading with the refs and getting some of those calls,” Franklin-Myers said.

Allen has drawn just one roughing the passer penalty this season. Through eight weeks, Allen leads the NFL with 21 touchdowns.

Franklin-Myers said that it is what it is and that it’s become a part of the game.

“It’s NBA-like. That’s what the NFL is kind of turning into,” he said. “Hey, the referees can’t see everything and their job is to call some of those things. Hey, if you can fake it until you make it, then that’s good for you, too.”


Big news on the injury front as star Safety Jordan Poyer is out , Stud LB Matt Milano has not practiced this week and it wouldn't be a shock if he sat this one out....
Not to fear this is solid depth at LB and safety though...

Please check back closer to kickoff on this one ...
Should be invested in several player props ..
 
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CLASS A

8 CLARENCE
4. WILLIAMSVILLE NORTH -17/14/15.5

Tempted to try and middle if the line is 4+ points apart before kickoff ...

What's changed since North beat Clarence 35-17 back on October 14th ?

This looks like an easy pass for me although Clarence is playing with a ton of confidence after the blowout upset over #1 South Park ...




2 JAMESTOWN -13/13.5/13
6. KENMORE WEST

JAMESTOWN -13 -115
$230/200

JAMESTOWN is on absoulte fire winning the last 5 by a combined score of 247-55 ...

The locals lost their shirt last week heavily bet Ken West won outright as a 6 point dog ...

This low line must reflect them knowing that the Blue Devils money will once again pour in on the dog ....
 
Whoa today's Breeders cup juvenile stakes races today are brutal to handicap ...Going to possibly need multiple partners, hitting up OTB around 1:30 to see who wants in( Gimping my way around lol) ....

Might have to spend $120-200 on a 50 cent pick 4 ...( what a joke ) , but it could lead to a monster pay off as 3 of the 4 legs look wide wide wide open....Even the leg with the 4/5 mega chalk probably deserves at least one back up ticket ..

If I can't find some partners there , I'll likely just bet the races individually...
 
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CLASS. AA ( Games played Friday night

1. LANCASTER. 39/38.5/39.5
4 NIAGARA FALLS.

Should have went with my gut and took the FALLS for a small 50 beans..Lancaster won 23-0




2. ORCHARD PARK
3. BENNETT. -20.5/20.5/20

BENNETT -20 -115
$1955/$1700 winner :moneyeyes:

Bennett was up 50-0 at the half and took the starters out...Went on to win 50-6 ...
Never thought I'd see the day where my old school that only dresses 28-36 players would be forcing the areas biggest schools into submission before half time...I would have bet my entire lifetime bankroll if they tried telling me this was going to happen even 10 years ago.....


Next Friday 8pm BENNETT will play LANCASTER AT HIGHMARK STADIUM ( where the BILLS play ) for the CLASS AA CHAMPIONSHIP.....
 
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Point Spread Ratings

PACKERS 91.83. PSR -2

LIONS 88.02. HF +1.71.

NO ATS PLAY is suggested...

Clearly both teams are beyond desperate for a win ...
Don't see how you could have any confidence backing either side..
Does Campbell make to next season ???
St Brown over 70.5 recieving is tempting .





Madden 23 Simulations

PACKERS 3.5. *LIONS

LIONS COVERED IN 11 OF 20

NO ATS play is suggested ....

Only 7 of the Lions covers were outright wins ....
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
CLASS A

8 CLARENCE
4. WILLIAMSVILLE NORTH -17/14/15.5

Tempted to try and middle if the line is 4+ points apart before kickoff ...

What's changed since North beat Clarence 35-17 back on October 14th ?

This looks like an easy pass for me although Clarence is playing with a ton of confidence after the blowout upset over #1 South Park ...




2 JAMESTOWN -13/13.5/13
6. KENMORE WEST

JAMESTOWN -13 -115
$230/200

JAMESTOWN is on absoulte fire winning the last 5 by a combined score of 247-55 ...

The locals lost their shirt last week heavily bet Ken West won outright as a 6 point dog ...

This low line must reflect them knowing that the Blue Devils money will once again pour in on the dog ....
Click to expand...

I was born and raised in Jamestown. Coach Tommy Langworthy and I went to high school together, he was a few grades above me. Small school called Southwestern (go Trojans).

Also in Tommy's class was this guy Nick Sirianni who now coaches the Eagles. Glad to call them both friends.

Looks like the Jamestown Red Raiders took care of business 55-8 tonight. Well done.
 
PappyOSU said:
I was born and raised in Jamestown. Coach Tommy Langworthy and I went to high school together, he was a few grades above me. Small school called Southwestern (go Trojans).

Also in Tommy's class was this guy Nick Sirianni who now coaches the Eagles. Glad to call them both friends.

Looks like the Jamestown Red Raiders took care of business 55-8 tonight. Well done.
Click to expand...
What a small world .
Really appreciate you stopping by my WNY BROTHER ....

My wife's close friend went to Southwestern , believe she graduated in 96 or 97 ....

I secretly root for the Eagles in the NFC for Local link to Sirianni ..Also have hated their division foes forever ....Langworthy has Jamestown playing top notch football right now ...They'll probably be at least a 10 point chalk next week at HIGHMARK stadium...

Love betting on local HS sports, the niche market is growing fast as locals scramble to keep and attract new clients with the legal sportsbooks crushing them ..

Billion dollar question are you a BILLS fan ?
 
Huge day the track today

BREEDERS CUP AT KEENELAND :megaphone:



Late pick 5 Handicapping

Been using this grading system for a long time..

.Not that it's been really successful or even worth a salt ..lol

For pick 5/4

A = appears to be worth a single
B. Must use , should be there down the stretch
C. Worth using in open races
D. Wheel in the bottom of the exotics , could blow up the Pick 5/4 as a bomber


Race 7
9. A+
2. B
6. C+
5. C
11. C-* One of my sleepers of the day underneath
4,3. D+
8,1. D



Race 8.
4. B+
13. B-
11. B-* Might bet across the board
8. B-
3,6,10. C+
9 C



Race 9.
6. A
1,4. A-
7. B
8. B-


RACE 10
5. A
7,2. A-
11. B
9. B- Another sleeper value
1. C +



Race. 11
4. A+
2,6. B
1. C+
5. C
7. D+
3. D
 
Very rare house to myself on Saturday Degenerate card

Just getting low limit action on all the games I'm planning to watch ..



MLS CHAMPIONSHIP

DRAW +290. $40/$116



BAKED CHALKFEST PARLAY -109 $109/$100
ALABAMA
CLEMSON
USC


GEORGIA vs TENNESSEE
FIRST HALF UNDER 33.5
$55/50



SABRES OVER 2.5 GOALS
$57.50/50



RJ BARRETT OVER 19.5 POINTS -103. $51.50
 
Point Spread Ratings

BENGALS. 93.87. HF +3.26. PSR -11.68
PANTHERS. 85.45.

BENGALS -7 are a suggested play

NO idea how the Panthers can rebound with another good effort after the highly emotional roller coaster loss last week to the Falcons ...
Bengals laid an egg on MNF and should be up for this one ....

Betting the BENGALS -7 for 1.5 units ($300) , and using them ML in parlays ...




Madden 23 Simulations

BENGALS. 7. PANTHERS

BENGALS COVERS 14 of 20

Bengals -7 are a suggested wager ...

9 of the 14 covers were by 17+ points ..
 
Point Spread ratings

RAIDERS. 89.74. PSR -1.12

JAGUARS 86.98 HF +1.64

NO ATS play is suggested on this game ...

Thoughts and prayers for Raiders fan , can't imagine the heartache and disappointment...
What's the deal ?
The retread HC ?
CARR ?
O line ?

Could someone please help me understand why the fans in Jacksonville are so proud of the county ?? DUVAL is chanted ad nauseum , why ???


Anyways I'm glad this game will not be on my rotation...PASS




MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS

RAIDERS 2.5. *JAGUARS

JAGUARS COVER 11 OF 20

NO ATS play is suggested ...

Was worried the PS4 would spontaneously combust running these Sims..
 
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DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Very rare house to myself on Saturday Degenerate card

Just getting low limit action on all the games I'm planning to watch ..



MLS CHAMPIONSHIP

DRAW +290. $40/$116



BAKED CHALKFEST PARLAY -109 $109/$100
ALABAMA
CLEMSON
USC


GEORGIA vs TENNESSEE
FIRST HALF UNDER 33.5
$55/50



SABRES OVER 2.5 GOALS
$57.50/50



RJ BARRETT OVER 19.5 POINTS -103. $51.50
Click to expand...

4-1 +$157 Saturday night

Love that my lone loss parlay gave both overrated Clemson + Alabama the kiss of death...lol
 
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DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Point Spread Ratings

BENGALS. 93.87. HF +3.26. PSR -11.68
PANTHERS. 85.45.

BENGALS -7 are a suggested play

NO idea how the Panthers can rebound with another good effort after the highly emotional roller coaster loss last week to the Falcons ...
Bengals laid an egg on MNF and should be up for this one ....

Betting the BENGALS -7 for 1.5 units ($300) , and using them ML in parlays ...




Madden 23 Simulations

BENGALS. 7. PANTHERS

BENGALS COVERS 14 of 20

Bengals -7 are a suggested wager ...

9 of the 14 covers were by 17+ points ..
Click to expand...
Hey Double, apologies if you already answered this previously, but when you simulate these games, do you also take into account injuries, like Chase for the Bengals?

Also, love the WNY discussions…went to St. Bonnies for almost 5 years lol, a lot of great memories up there with great people.
 
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DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
What a small world .
Really appreciate you stopping by my WNY BROTHER ....

My wife's close friend went to Southwestern , believe she graduated in 96 or 97 ....

I secretly root for the Eagles in the NFC for Local link to Sirianni ..Also have hated their division foes forever ....Langworthy has Jamestown playing top notch football right now ...They'll probably be at least a 10 point chalk next week at HIGHMARK stadium...

Love betting on local HS sports, the niche market is growing fast as locals scramble to keep and attract new clients with the legal sportsbooks crushing them ..

Billion dollar question are you a BILLS fan ?
Click to expand...
I graduated in '02 (Langworthy and Sirianni '99). If she went to southwestern there is a good chance I know her or have heard of her. Lakewood is a really a small close knit community.

As far as Buffalo sports go, just the Sabres for me.

My brother and most of my friends are Bills fans. It was rough growing up with that in mind but for whatever reason when I was little I thought the Dolphins had the coolest colors. So I played with them non stop on Nintendo Tecmo Super Bowl, then fell in love with Dan Marino, then routinely had my heart broken. Lol. But yea.. go Dolphins
 
Knamelis said:
Hey Double, apologies if you already answered this previously, but when you simulate these games, do you also take into account injuries, like Chase for the Bengals?

Also, love the WNY discussions…went to St. Bonnnies for almost 5 years lol, a lot of great memories up there with great people.
Click to expand...
Yes the injuries are included z that's why I wait to do most of the sims until Friday at the earliest ...Sometimes waiting until the inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff ...

Love Olean , you received a solid education there at St.Bonaventure ...I applied , snd got denied ,lol ....

Appreciate you stopping by Brother !!!
Sweep your NFL slate today $$!!!
 
Point Spread Ratings

COMMIES 92.02. HF +2.52. PSR -0.40

VIKINGS. 94.14

COMMIES +3 are a suggested play

The use of COMMIES is meant with NO disrespect to the fantastic Washington fan base..I HATE the shet bag owner who hopefully will be indicted soon , and be forced to sell the team ....Was rooting hard for their new name to be Red Wolves ( which apparently were native to the area ) , but scumbag Snyder went with Commanders after promising he wouldn't do any military related ...Tons of RESPECT for our bravest, and most heroic Americans who serve in the armed forces!!!
The Red Wolves concept was really cool , the helmets I saw might have been the best new ones ever since the OILERS joined IMO ..

Anyways sorry to rant just taking a few bong rips with the morning coffee before the FAM comes home for the BILLS game in a few hours ....

This looks like a perfect spot to back the home dog in an emotional spot after Ron Rivera's mother passed on ....

Loving my Vikings divisional futures at the moment , but they're due for a slip up.....




MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS

VIKINGS 3. *COMMIES

COMMIES COVER IN 13 and push twice

This is the first time this season a ATS wager has been suggested on WASHINGTON
 
DOLPHINS 95.58 PSR-5.20

BEARS. 87.79. HF +2.83.

NO ATS play is suggested

Bears are clearly on the rebuild despite a much better start than even Bears homer expected ....
Maybe Justin Fields makes me eat crow in the long run ???
Tempted to take the OVER here , but doing my best to have some discipline and pass ..
Also lean on Fields rushing yards over 49.5 and over 8.5 carries but only for small amounts possibly..




Madden 23 Simulations

DOLPHINS. 4. *BEARS

FINS Cover in 11 of 20 and push once...

NO ATS play is suggested
 
BILLS AT NEW JERSEY investments +

BILLS have some key injuries that the media and sports bettors will over hype..

Be very careful getting sucked into betting the Jets as the line continued to drop now down to 10.5 ....

S Jordan Poyer is out as expected , the Safety pairing of Hamlin and Johnson has already started 2 games together..

Stud LB Matt Milano is also likely out as expected , don't discount Rookie BERNARD and Dodson ...The BILLS spend much of their time with only 2 LB's on the field , solid speedy young depth ...

PROP INVESTMENTS

SINGLETARY OVER 14.5 RECIEVING YARDS.
1.5 Units $330/300
Bills are 12th in RB targets , expect to see lots of dumpoffs , and routes run by all 3 of the BILLS backs....

CONKILIN OVER 28.5 REC Y
1.25 UNITS $275/250
Bills usually play plenty of soft zone coverages , without pass covering specialist Milano I expect Conklin end up possibly being the main target today...My numbers have 30-55 yards and 0.6 TD...




Smaller Plays

Groot Rousseau SACKS over 0.5 +160 $32/51.20

Kair Elam Interception +540
$20/$108
 
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Point Spread Ratings

BILLS 104.24 PSR -12

JETS 90.22. HF +2.02.

NO ATS play is suggested

Be careful being baited into taking the Jets today...It very well could be within 10 points , but I doubt it ...


McDermott is huge on Division games, maybe they just shifted focus at half Sunday night to the Jets.....
McDermott loves posting bulletin board material all over One BILLS DRIVE ...This week Jets DT John Franklin-Myers gave him the perfect ammo speaking about Josh Allen

“He does a good job of breaking tackles and getting into guys’ heads and baiting guys into certain things, pleading with the refs and getting some of those calls,” Franklin-Myers said.

Allen has drawn just one roughing the passer penalty this season. Through eight weeks, Allen leads the NFL with 21 touchdowns.

Franklin-Myers said that it is what it is and that it’s become a part of the game.

“It’s NBA-like. That’s what the NFL is kind of turning into,” he said. “Hey, the referees can’t see everything and their job is to call some of those things. Hey, if you can fake it until you make it, then that’s good for you, too.”





Madden 23 Simulations

BILLS. 10.5. * JETS

BILLS covered in 14 of 20

BILLS -10.5 are a suggested ATS wager

8 of the 14 covers featured the BILLS winning by 20+
 
PATRIOTS. 92.34. HF +2.67. PSR -4.65

COLTS 90.36.

NO ATS PLAY IS SUGGESTED

I couldn't possibly stomach betting either side in this game ...
Wondering if ML Parlay/teaser guy gets bludgeoned by the PATRIOTS losing outright...






Madden 23 Simulations

PATRIOTS. 5. COLTS

Complete split down the middle ATS 10 V 10

NO ATS play is suggested
 
CHARGERS. 93.09. PSR -1.24

FALCONS. 88.93. HF +2.22

NO ATS PLAY IS SUGGESTED

Couldn't bet Ekeler fast enough over 49.5 recieving yards for $300

No idea what to expect from these teams that don't play much defense when it matters....No score would suprise me





Madden 23 Simulations

Chargers 2.5 *Falcons

Chargers cover in 13 of 20

Chargers are a suggested play


Even without Allen and Williams the MADDEN 23 games seemingly loves the Chargers on almost a weekly basis for better or worse ..
 
DAY GAMES
Suggested Wagers


POINT SPREAD RATINGS
( 16-10 YTD )

BENGALS -7
COMMIES +3
CARDINALS -2



MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS
( 29-17-1 ATS YTD )

BENGALS -7
COMMIES +3
BILLS. -10.5
CHARGERS -2.5
CARDINALS -2
 
Week 9 investments

LARGE

CARDINALS ML -122
4 UNITS




STANDARD

BENGALS -7
1.5 U

COMMIES +3.5 -121
1.5 U

EKELER OVER 49.5 REC Y -115
1.5 U

SINGLETARY OVER 14.5 REC Y
1.5 U

CONKLIN OVER 28.5 REC Y
1.25 U






INVESTMENT KEY
1 UNIT =$200

1-2 UNITS STANDARD
3-4. UNITS. LARGE
5-6+ UNITS. MORTGAGE
 
Madden 23 Sims

Chiefs 14. Titans

Chiefs cover 12 of 20

Was hoping they'd be a suggested play , but No dice ...
8 of the 12 covers the Chiefs did win by 21 or more though , including 2 by 35+ ..
 
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