wk 17 , NFL--discussion needed

[tee*dub]

enter the thread at you own risk.. This capper is as cold as they get in this league... Embarassed to even add last week up.. It was bad... I would suggest a full fade on everything I post in here today..

No plays yet.. Have to be very careful this week as things can change from hour to hour especially as the early games are ending and the late games are getting set.

Random thoughts-

• Since 2003 Vikings have had four "win and in" games in week 17 and have lost all 4.:seeya:
• If NE loses early, Ravens are in and may rest people..
• Big lean on Miami esp if NE wins
• Big lean on Colts / Titans under... Clock may not stop except at the quarters
• Rams players signed a petition and presented to owners to retain Haslett. Wouldn't a better strategy be to win a game under him?
• Coughlin played all his starters in a meaningless week 17 game last year. BUT that was against undefeated Pats.. Can't imagine many of the front line guys play in the 2H today.
• I have Vikings teased to a pick with several combinations from yesterday (Cal, WVir) so a SU win gets me around 6 units.. Like the spot really. Peterson could go off and a 200 yard game is very doable IMO.. Berriman is a go as reported on ESPN. Jacobs looks like he is not dressing.
• Lean the Cowboys especially if the game becomes meaningless to Eagles.. Which is likely in the early games.
• Teasing the Charges to -1 is a smart move IMO. Possibly with Ravens if NE wins or a CFB team..
• Drew Brees needs 402 yards to break Marino's single season record... Hmmm.. Carolina defense is banged up and even if a first round bye is at stake, not sure if they want to work as hard as they are going to need to to get this win.. If Saints get a 2 TD lead in second half expect it to get real ugly as Brees will be slinging on every play against Carolina special team players..

These are the angles I am on. Anyone have anything to add or contradict what I am thinking?.. Doubt I'll post my plays in here today guys for two reasons: 1) doubt anyone wants to see them and 2) many are going to be put in lightning quick due to the nature of the day especially the results of early games changing complex of late games.. I plan to make some fucking money today

 

[tee*dub]

saints TT over 24.5 has to get a serious look.. Also, keep track of that one at HT.. I really think Brees gets the record or at least goes for it bigtime..

 

[aplous]

What is the scenario for Philly being eliminated after the early games? Tampa winning?

Eagles would love nothing more than to keep Dallas home for the playoffs.

Vikings have failed in this situation, but I see NYG mailing this one in big time....Jacobs, Ross, and many others probably not going to give it a go.

 

[benweiser69]

Good luck today Tee, hopefully you decide to post your plays. I'm not playing much today in the NFL but will be definetly watching the NE game score for a possible hit on the Ravens. If NE wins I think Baltimore is the best bet on the board......only concern would be a late 4th quarter moose fucking. ALso like the thoughts on the Indy/Tenny under as well as a play on the Titans.

Either way good luck today and I always enjoy reading your threads!!!

 

[tee*dub]

What is the scenario for Philly being eliminated after the early games? Tampa winning?

They need a loss by Tampa and also a loss by either MInn or Chicago... Ain't gonna happen esp. when you consider all three need wins and two of them are playing teams that could care less.

 

[STEED]

GL w/ your games today teedub

 

[aplous]

They need a loss by Tampa and also a loss by either MInn or Chicago... Ain't gonna happen esp. when you consider all three need wins and two of them are playing teams that could care less.

Even if Philly is bounced you dont think they'd love nothing more than keeping TO/Romo out??

 

[tee*dub]

I am teasing the fuck out of the Vikings.. Several partners... Spot is perfect IMO for a bunch of reasons..

 

[HereWeGo]

Great angle on that NO TT over Tee

 

[spanishshark]

Heard last night that Giants were playin all starters. Be careful.

 

[tee*dub]

Even if Philly is bounced you dont think they'd love nothing more than keeping TO/Romo out??

Possibly, but they are banged up and guys in contract years and banged up in a meaningless game (to them) tend to play soft... Put it this way IMO, if things go well for the Eagles and they are in the game, they will compete but if things go against them a bit I think they lay down... Really I am talking myself into a play on the Cowboys regardless and probably get best line now based on expected 1st game results so I'll probably put in the Boys in the 3 unit range..

Love days like this because there is so much to keep track of and Vegas is trying to fuck with the ill-prpared bettor..

Buddy called me this a.m. "can you believe the Giants are getting 7 points.. That is hammertime" Vegas knows more than we do regarding coaches mindeset on playing certain players.. That line tells me Giants are playing an exihition game and to pound the Vikings (at least to win)..

 

[tee*dub]

latest from Minn:

Giants--- out Boss, Jacobs, Cofield,Ross... Manning said he expected to play maybe a half

Vikings--- Berriman is playing and reports being 100%

 

[tee*dub]

Heard last night that Giants were playin all starters. Be careful.

Just heard they are not.. ESPN field reporter... But thanks bro.. all info is good info today..

 

[aplous]

Vikes should get it done for sure. GL today!!

 

[spanishshark]

Just heard they are not.. ESPN field reporter... But thanks bro.. all info is good info today..

GAMEDAY: GIANTS VS. VIKINGS
The Giants take on the Minnesota Vikings today at the Metrodome with the Giants looking to finish the 2008 season with a 13-3 record. The Giants starters are expected to play along with many key backups. Be sure to stay logged on to Giants.com throughout the day for the latest News and Notes, Inactives, Play by Play, Boxscore and our GAMEFEED STARTING AT 1230! - GAME RELEASE

 

[tee*dub]

latest from Minn:

Giants--- out Boss, Jacobs, Cofield,Ross... Manning said he expected to play maybe a half

Vikings--- Berriman is playing and reports being 100%

Also, J. Allen walked from his car to the stadium in short sleeves:smiley_acbe:

 

[ddk997]

its so windy at buffalo stadium that the goal post were blown side ways.

40mph winds were reported

 

[ddk997]

43.5 to 34.5....

 

[Mags]

Gusts up to 40mph here in Pittsburgh bro. We do have one of the better backup QBs in the league and Cleveland is starting another new QB...Steelers roll in this one!

 

[Tito]

Giants HATE the Vikes - if you're gonna play them the tease looks the safest - NYG won't lay down


gl today

 

[cogenman]

What's up t-dub, you've been great at looking at certain teams in certain sports. Ex: Cardinals in baseball, Iowa St. in college football, and in the nfl you've played the rams and cardinals a lot.

Anyways, i wanted your opinion on Arizona. IMO, i think they need a win bad. Not just a win, but a convincing win. They are 8-7, backing their way into the playoffs. I think they open a can up on Seattle just to get a little confidence back, and much needed MOMENTUM going into the playoffs. The Seahawks won their superbowl last week, giving Holmgren his last win at home. This week I don't think they play with as much passion. Any thoughts? Obviously they have a spot locked up but do they play hard?

 

[Marlo]

Also, J. Allen walked from his car to the stadium in short sleeves:smiley_acbe:

I have the biggest man crush on this guy

 

[tee*dub]

What's up t-dub, you've been great at looking at certain teams in certain sports. Ex: Cardinals in baseball, Iowa St. in college football, and in the nfl you've played the rams and cardinals a lot.

Anyways, i wanted your opinion on Arizona. IMO, i think they need a win bad. Not just a win, but a convincing win. They are 8-7, backing their way into the playoffs. I think they open a can up on Seattle just to get a little confidence back, and much needed MOMENTUM going into the playoffs. The Seahawks won their superbowl last week, giving Holmgren his last win at home. This week I don't think they play with as much passion. Any thoughts? Obviously they have a spot locked up but do they play hard?

Good points... I think it is a tough spot for Cardinals and trying to gauge their motivation is purely guesswork..

Some things that would concern me backing gridbirds:

• No Boldin (makes guarding Fitz a lot easier which we have seen recently
• Warner has been getting the shit beat out of him lately.. He is old and could use the rest.. Would not be sirprised to see Warner have a little success early then be gone.. Leinhart? ugh
• Homgren's last home game
• If Cards were worried about lack of momentum going ito the playoffs, they should really be worried now because playing your starters long and hard in this one is really a questionable decision.

Too many question marks for me to back the birds or the hawks in this one.. I just stay away from games like that in wk 17... Just my opinion bro... Hope you hit it if you play..

 

[cogenman]

Good points... I think it is a tough spot for Cardinals and trying to gauge their motivation is purely guesswork..

Some things that would concern me backing gridbirds:

• No Boldin (makes guarding Fitz a lot easier which we have seen recently
• Warner has been getting the shit beat out of him lately.. He is old and could use the rest.. Would not be sirprised to see Warner have a little success early then be gone.. Leinhart? ugh
• Homgren's last home game
• If Cards were worried about lack of momentum going ito the playoffs, they should really be worried now because playing your starters long and hard in this one is really a questionable decision.

Too many question marks for me to back the birds or the hawks in this one.. I just stay away from games like that in wk 17... Just my opinion bro... Hope you hit it if you play..

Good pts t-dub, thanks. I did still played it, but making it a small bet instead of a big one. Thanks.

 

[tee*dub]

I have the biggest man crush on this guy

I did not realize he was such a good fucking teammate until he got to Minn.. Always thought he was a prick in KC, but that was just my perception and it was wrong.. Watch him play the run when the play goes away from him.. Not many top notch pass rushers even give effort on a play like that.. J Allen is John Randle in his prime but only faster..

Listing my FB man crushes , in order of crush:

Shonn Greene
Jared Allen
James Starks
Steve Smith

 

[Streakin]

I did not realize he was such a good fucking teammate until he got to Minn.. Always thought he was a prick in KC, but that was just my perception and it was wrong.. Watch him play the run when the play goes away from him.. Not many top notch pass rushers even give effort on a play like that.. J Allen is John Randle in his prime but only faster..

Listing my FB man crushes , in order of crush:

Shonn Greene
Jared Allen
James Starks
Steve Smith

and there it is :36_11_6:

 

[tee*dub]

Giants HATE the Vikes - if you're gonna play them the tease looks the safest - NYG won't lay down


gl today

Thanks Tito.. Think the Giants would be better off letting the Vikings win and then take out their hate on them in the playoffs... Thats my bet..

 

[wiseplayer]

tee, what do you think of buffalo getting 6?

 

[Streakin]

Plays? Partners with Minny tease?

 

[tee*dub]

david Carr vs Vikings defense in the 2H?

 

[Mags]

Gusts up to 40mph here in Pittsburgh bro. We do have one of the better backup QBs in the league and Cleveland is starting another new QB...Steelers roll in this one!

:smiley_acbe:

 

[tee*dub]

that viking SU win was big for me.. had them tied in a bunch of teasers and ML parlays.. All cashed:smiley_acbe:

Played Miami and Cowboys late and Balt in a pick (teased)

 

[Streakin]

that viking SU win was big for me.. had them tied in a bunch of teasers and ML parlays.. All cashed:smiley_acbe:

Played Miami and Cowboys late and Balt in a pick (teased)

You know me Tee, no doubting you at all...just wondering why are you not posting your actual plays today?

I got killed on my Giants ml

 

[tee*dub]

played Miami TT over 10 -105 pretty big... lots of outs IMO..nice vig

 

[tee*dub]

and believe it or not see some pretty good value on Dallas 2H line and the over..

 

[tee*dub]

...just wondering why are you not posting your actual plays today?

no good reason... Just not a good time to listen to my opinions in this sport.... :shake:

pretty good day for me, but not great so far.. Could get better if Mi rolls 2H..:cheers:

 

[Streakin]

All over the Phins...hope they perform for us Tee

 

[tee*dub]

what a throw by Pennington:smiley_acbe:

 

[Streakin]

What are you looking at tonight? Broncs?

 

[tee*dub]

yep I am all over the broncos at +7.5 and the broncos tt over 21...

Big day so far for me... Disappointed I didn't sweep but Cowboys just play so undisciplined... I made my bet before Tampa lost.. Really feel Philly would have been totally different had they known they were playing for nothing... Maybe not a Cowboy cover but certainly a bmore competitive game..

 

[Marlo]

yep I am all over the broncos at +7.5 and the broncos tt over 21...

Big day so far for me... Disappointed I didn't sweep but Cowboys just play so undisciplined... I made my bet before Tampa lost.. Really feel Philly would have been totally different had they known they were playing for nothing... Maybe not a Cowboy cover but certainly a bmore competitive game..

Yep fade em as Fav's play em as dogs. Vikes win was big for me as well, and Cowboys loss sucked.

 

[cogenman]

good point t-dub about waiting for the TB winner. I also figured there's no way TB would lose and took Dallas. Oh well, learn from it. At least the Cards won from our earlier discussion.