Wk 1 Sunday NFL

[brewer]

season gets underway next thrus night. so wanted to get some thougnts up on what i saw preseason that i think will transpire into the regular seaosn.

carolina flat out sucks. their specials teams is gross (in a bad way). they have no playmaker outside smitty on offense. david carr is not the answer to avg qb situation they have.

took em Under 9 wins (-115)

arizona can have all the offense they wish but that doesnt change the fact that their defense you can walk up and down the field on.

took em under 7.5 wins (-105)

pitt looks fucking serious. i hope cincy and balt are ready for em. they will be back in the postseason and make noise imo.

looking to fade kc ... LJ is not in shape and they have no other option at rb. lean houston minus the trifecta.

giants line move from 4 to 6 makes little no sense to me. newman and ellis are likely both out for dallas. eli will shread their pass coverage. looking +6 and moneyline.

if LT gets to 100 yards rushing chargers win. i feel he will. and bears lose.

phila/GB under 43.5 looks like a real good play. mcnabb is yet to have ample time to get to know his new wideout curtis and still not back yet to his MVP start of last year status. also, driver is down prolly out. so jennings and jones (2nd year and 1st year are favre top two targets ... lol).

buf +3.5. early start on the east coast. and buffalo plays real efficient football on both sides and has good special teams. live home dog???

tampa +7 if i can get it. hens are sucka bet of week IMO.

lean indy just cuz of that dumb trend and i know i want opening night action.

SF looks good on MNF.

all for now.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

good stuff, brewer. i'm jsut scratching the surface, in terms of week one...but i love SD as well.
it'll be 2 very stout defenses...but it'll be the same old story w/ Rex and the Bears offense. they ain't gonna do shit against the Chargers. and on the other side, SD has enough weapons on offense to wear down the Bear defense...and win this thing by 10 or so.

 

[brewer]

urlacher is gonna be asked to do way too much in this game. no way he can run with gates (which he can) and also be asked to stop LT/turner. i, also, cant bet on risky rex to win a game at SD of all places in week 1 off that home playoff loss to the pats with an unproven benson behind him.

the powder blue LT jersey is on. :tiphat:

 

[brewer]

betting this one now before it moves on me. this is my POW and will have a write on it some time friday or saturday.

Jack -6.5 (4)

* line was bet at bookmaker.com

 

[brewer]

here is my write on this game ...

The jaguars were one of the best 8-8 teams I have ever seen. After a 44-17 rout of indy at home they would go on to lose a game at tenn that they dominated in every category but one TO margin. In that game they held a 396 to 98 total yards advantage (193 of which were on the ground for them), they were 10/18 on 3<SUP>rd</SUP> while tenn</ST1 was 0/8, and lead the time of possession battle at 44:22 to 15:38.
Up 10-7 at halftime it looked like Jacksonville</ST1 would win this game. As the lone tenn </ST1pts came on a pick six of David Garrard. However, much more of that same ill fate would transpire in the second half. As Garrard would go on to throw another 2 ints (one a pick six) and fumble a ball at the <ST1Tenn 16 that Tenn </ST1took back 84 yards for their third defensive td of the game.<O</O
<O</O
The <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

<ST1

<ST1

<ST1

tenn</st1:State> 16 that <st1:State w:st=" /><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> d did more than their share in their two games vs <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1tenn </ST1</st1:State>when it mattered. In the first game they held em to a shut out until the final quarter in garbage time when VY connected on a 4<SUP>th</SUP> and 7 from the 32. to score the lone <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1tenn </ST1</st1:State>pts that game.<O</O
<O</O
So jack won that game 37-0 when it mattered.
<O</O
<O</O
In the second game the <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Tenn </ST1</st1:State>offense only scored 3 pts. So in two games vs the Jags the titans offense has scored just 3 pts in their last two meetings! This season it looks to be much of the same. As <st1:State w:st="on">Tenn</st1:State> losses their rb with 9 kids, Travis Henry, to <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Denver</ST1</st1:City>, their top two wrs (Bennett to STL and Wade to MIN) and their top corner/special teams guy Pacman Jones on suspension. I don’t see how <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Tenn </ST1</st1:State>looks to have any easier a time of it on offense in this years week 1 meeting without those pieces. Lendale White and whoever else takes the carries behind young is inexperienced. If travis henry (outside of two 16 yard rushes in those two games vs Jac) was 29 for 72 yards (2.5 ypc) there is no reason to think things will improve. Tenn will be going up against a teal curtain all game long. Also, half the defensive backfield will be on lockdown with Rashean Mathis partrolling it.
ON offense jack will do as they please. They racked up 193 and 173 yards rushing vs this <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Tenn </ST1</st1:State>team last year. In one game they did it without Fred Taylor for a majority of that game.<O</O
<O</O
Jags at home in September off a dreadful end to last year vs the team that ultimately would prevent them from going to the playoffs (in a game they should have won). Look for jack to continue their dominance in September home openers and against this <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Tenn </ST1</st1:State>team.
<O</O
<O</O
My line for this game is Jack -14. The line the books put out is a -6.5. In the eyes of the public this line is said to be fair as it is 55/45 atm. However, I disagree and it has since moved to -7. I took advantage and bet this line earlier than I normally do a game. Usually I like to bet on game day. But I didn’t see this line get much better. So I bought.<O</O
<O</O
Look for jack to be much better this year and their -5 net close games to even out. They played a brutal schedule last year against several playoff teams and faired well. They won against <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City></ST1, Giants, Phila, Indy and loss close games to KC, Ne and indy. Also, their d will be even better as they were without one of their mammoth DTs in Marcus Stroud for 5 games LY. <O</O
<O</O
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1</st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on">Tenn, </ST1</st1:State>on the otherhand, was +7 in net close games with VY under center. Look for things to return to the norm this season (esp with the losses I noted for <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Tenn</ST1</st1:State>).<O</O
<O</O
That said this is my POW. Call it <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> 30ish T<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1enn </ST1</st1:State>14ish.<O</O
<O</O
Key Trend: Favorites in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS loses are 28-6 ATS since 1983.<O</O
<O</O
Jack -6.5 (4)<O</O

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

GL ... Only concern for me is that Garrard is the true starter now. He is no longer competing for a job. There is some pressure on his shoulders in week 1. If Tenn D can slow down the run even somewhat, they can stay in this game. Jax has no WR's whatsoever.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

GL Brewer, I like pretty much all your plays. That under looks especially good.

 

[brewer]

Lie, is there anything to indicate TEnn will be able to slow down the jack run game of jones-drew, taylor adn garrard? i couldnt find anything. they didnt show it last year. the moves they made this offseason dont change my opinion on em either. they are the cellar of the league when it comes to defense.

thanks ATL. good luck on your plays. looking forward to seeing em and your thoughts.

 

[antmagic219]

nice...gl

 

[B.A.R.]

Good thread...

I'll pop back in morrow night

 

[BlitzBandit]

Jack does look pretty good this week.. gl bud.

 

[brewer]

looking at ...

clev
jets
tampa
sd ml

 

[brewer]

phila ml/phila u42.5/jack -7/sd ml/clev +4.5 (1 for 13.86)

thoughts on the parlay, dont do these often but i think i have an advantage here. jack is my POW, sd wont lose, charlie frye is playing in his personal Superbowl tom, phila has a run game while GB does not hence the phila and under call.

 

[Ray]

GL Brewer

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL today, bro

 

[Popcorn Light]

Good luck Brewer