Wk 1 Spreads I WANT to see

[E.T.G.]

Obviously I would like anything better also. Just a quick comb through WK 1.



Thurs:

NC ST @ SC -10

Vandy + 3 @ MOH

Fri:

SMU @ Rice Over 76

Temple -3 @ Army


Sat:

UF team total Over 48 (i pray)

VT @ ECU +10

USC -24 @ UVA

Memphis @ Ole Miss -4

Illinois vs. Missouri -9

Cuse @ NWestern -10


Sun:

-

Monday:

Fresno +7 @ RU, Over 49

Tenn -4 @ UCLA

 

[tru]

Tenn -4 @ UCLA

good health

:cheers:

 

[tooltones]

for what it's worth ETG, here's what I've got on those so far:

Thurs:

SCarolina -10

Not finished with MAC yet

Fri:

Got neither of these two done.


Sat:

Florida -32 (TT o/u 49)

ECU +11

USC -20

Not done with Memphis.

Missouri -10/58

N'western -13


Monday:

Fresno +9

Tenn -4/50

 

[E.T.G.]

good health

:cheers:

home dog on prime time tv, smells like a Tru play.

Honestly, I haven't looked that deep into UCLA but I am not expecting anything near what happened in the CAL-Tenn game last yr. Cal for one, was a much better team in the beginning of the year than how they finished and Tenny is going to a very good team this year.

for what it's worth ETG, here's what I've got on those so far:

Thurs:

SCarolina -10

Not finished with MAC yet

Fri:

Got neither of these two done.


Sat:

Florida -32 (TT o/u 49)

ECU +11

USC -20

Not done with Memphis.

Missouri -10/58

N'western -13


Monday:

Fresno +9

Tenn -4/50

Tooltones, cool, looks like we are pretty close on a lot of them. I wouldn't mind seeing +9 w/ Fresno and I would love less than 3 TD w/ USC

:shake:

 

[TheGarfather]

I will be shocked and appalled if Fresno is over about 5 or 6.

No way you see Mississippi only laying 4, that has to be a TD or more.

 

[majent]

No way you see Mississippi only laying 4, that has to be a TD or more.

The spread in that game has not been over 3 either way since 2003 when ole miss was favored by 8 at home, so why would this year be any different from the 2004 and 2006 visits by memphis to oxford, miss?

that line will not open higher than 6, i guarantee it. in fact, it'll probably be -3.5, ole miss

 

[RetroVK]

I am torn about where this line comes out. ole miss SHOULD be well over a td favorite but there are two things that make me wonder where it will actually open.

1. the history of the line and the result in the game. Each game the last few years has not jsut been lined as a close game but finished as a close game.

2. both teams return 15 - 16 starters from the teams that played each other last year. memphis has 11 more first downs and almost 200 yards more offense in that game. Ole miss jumped out to a big early lead and sort of sat on it , so that accounts for some of the difference but it would be something that the books have to take into consideration.


My PR and HFA make this a dd spread. so if its under a td , its a huge bet on ole miss.

 

[majent]

Ole Miss coming off a crappy year, Memphis coming off a bowl game, both teams return around 15-16 as you say, Kyle. No chance this thing opens near 7.

 

[horses]

Lots of smart people in here disagreeing on what the Memphis-Ole Miss spread will be. The historical matchups btw these two has to be factored into the line.

That being said, and my own power ratings aren't finalized, I have Ole Miss as a double digit favorite here. Last year, I actually saw value in Memphis and bet Memphis at +3. So what has changed that I now have Ole Miss as a DD favorite? first off, as I mentioned, I haven't finalized my ratings and I think I may have done CUSA a disservice by placing most of their teams too low. From an on field perspective though, Memphis has lost their QB and should be at a pretty big disadvantage along both LOS compared to last year. I still think I may have missplaced CUSA a bit, but I definitely think Ole Miss is going to be better than they were LY, while Memphis will be about the same (they had a solid year LY).

 

[horses]

By the way Majentic...how 'bout that Wimbledon final?!!

 

[majent]

Lots of smart people in here disagreeing on what the Memphis-Ole Miss spread will be. The historical matchups btw these two has to be factored into the line.

All of the smart people disagreeing with me (you, Kyle, Garfather) so perhaps I am the dumb one? LOL. I will hold my ground because I'm a stubborn cat and say that the line opens Miss -3.5. I won't be shocked if it's anything up -5.5, but -7 will surprise me quite a bit.

 

[majent]

By the way Majentic...how 'bout that Wimbledon final?!!

Absolutely incredible -- best match I have seen in a few decades. I recorded it and have watched the 4th and 5th sets three times since the match commenced on Sunday afternoon.

I cannot wait for the US Open to begin on Aug 25th:cheers:

 

[TheGarfather]

The spread in that game has not been over 3 either way since 2003 when ole miss was favored by 8 at home, so why would this year be any different from the 2004 and 2006 visits by memphis to oxford, miss?

that line will not open higher than 6, i guarantee it. in fact, it'll probably be -3.5, ole miss

In 2003, Miss was laying 8 on the road at Memphis according to PS (they ended up losing). I am looking for this line to be about 7 or 8 again only this time it will be in Oxford. As for your question about why the difference, this happens to be the first year since 2003 (Eli's Sr year) where the Rebels have had this large of a talent edge.

 

[RetroVK]

Ole Miss released at -10 by lvsc

 

[majent]

Looks like I missed that opener by quite a bit.. Nice call fellas.

 

[E.T.G.]

Obviously I would like anything better also. Just a quick comb through WK 1.



Thurs:

NC ST @ SC -10 -13

Vandy + 3 @ MOH ----

Fri:

SMU @ Rice Over 76 ----

Temple -3 @ Army -----


Sat:

UF team total Over 48 (i pray) -27 game spread

VT @ ECU +10 +11.5

USC -24 @ UVA +18

Memphis @ Ole Miss -4 -10

Illinois vs. Missouri -9

Cuse @ NWestern -10


Sun:

-

Monday:

Fresno +7 @ RU, Over 49 +5

Tenn -4 @ UCLA

The numbers in bold are from the LVSC. Few thoughts here. Not surprised at all with SC-13, -10 is of course what I wanted to see but -13 is going to be pretty tight as of right now. I can not make an accurate assessment until the OL practices in August. Seeing UF -27 is fair, I really want to see the team total in this game, they are going to crush Hawaii veryyy badly, worse than UGA did. I like ECU+11.5 at home. Could see a very similar game to last year, maybe even a little closer. USC-18, now that just strikes me as wrong and if this line comes close to holding up, it will be my biggest bet behind UF team total for the week. I just can see USC destroying them like 55-13. Ole Miss -10, the value is really gone here, I would of bet anything in this game up to around 8 points but 10 is probably right near where this final score ends up. Fresno+5, was looking for a TD on the road against Shiano's squad.

 

[Schrute]

That ECU game is in Charlotte so the tickets will be evenly distributed b/t the two schools. Its actually about an hour and fifteen minutes shorter to drive from Blacksburg to Charlotte than it is from Greenville, NC to Charlotte. I'd be careful thinking that's going to be a home game for the Pirates. I still think they keep it pretty close but I'd say the attendance will be about 70-30 VT

 

[E.T.G.]

That ECU game is in Charlotte so the tickets will be evenly distributed b/t the two schools. Its actually about an hour and fifteen minutes shorter to drive from Blacksburg to Charlotte than it is from Greenville, NC to Charlotte. I'd be careful thinking that's going to be a home game for the Pirates. I still think they keep it pretty close but I'd say the attendance will be about 70-30 VT

umm very good catch dwight, i've been under the assumption this was a ECU home game... hmmmmmmm:shake:

 

[Schrute]

umm very good catch dwight, i've been under the assumption this was a ECU home game... hmmmmmmm:shake:

My first contribution in over 1700 posts

 

[chips t]

I think MU will only be bout -5.5. I played MU at -4.5 last yr and that was when Illini was comin off a 2-10 yr. Granted MU was a win away from playing for nat title but I'm certain the line will be inside a TD. I will be taking MU for sure.

 

[chips t]

ok so lvsc has mu -7.5. I stand corected. Surprising. I bet it moves inside a TD on at one point in time on a sportsbook somewhere.