Wizards vs. Bucks NBA Picks for February 1
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Key Injury
Washington's leading scorer, Bradley Beal, has been ruled out for this game.
Beal is still recovering from a sprained wrist that he suffered during his team's last game against Memphis.
His absence is significant, but ultimately not for the reasons you may think.
Of course, no one player can replace his productivity. He leads the team with 23.2 points per game, which is over seven more than any other teammate.
This unique degree of productivity will compel oddsmakers to adjust too strongly for his absence.
We have already seen them make this over-adjustment several times.
Without Beal, the Wizards are 5-4 ATS.
It is true that this ATS record does not look extremely attractive.
But consider that the Wizards' ATS record with Beal is 14-25-1.
These two ATS records indicate that the Wizards are covering at a 20-percent higher rate without Beal in the lineup than with Beal.
Thus, Beal's absence is significant not so much because he's a good player but because oddsmakers will give Wizard backers a greater deal because of how strongly the public perceives the significance of his absence.
Driving Inside
The best service that Beal provided was via his ability to score at the basket.
He drove a lot of times per game to the hoop in order to earn an and-one or otherwise score.
But it would be misleading in a sense to say that the Wizards rank as highly as they do in field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket largely because of him.
Beal makes up a large percentage of those particular field goal attempts because of the time he's spent playing on the court.
Without Beal, the Wizards still have other guys who like to do the same thing, who like to attack the hoop, and who will do more of the same thing when they get more playing time in place of Beal.
For example, in their most recent three-game stretch without Beal -- the Wizards played without him from January 11 to January 15 -- they still averaged almost the same number of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and were actually more efficient.
Guys like Kyle Kuzma, Raul Neto, and Spencer Dinwiddie also like to drive to the basket.
These three players average over seven or over 10 drives per game.
Dinwiddie was one key figure in Beal's absence as he scored 22 points on January 11 and 27 on January 15.
Washington is also active in front of the basket because of its host of bigs whom it employs.
For example, Thomas Bryant, who started on last year's playoff roster, is becoming more active with the rest of the starting lineup.
But Daniel Gafford and the energetic dunker Montrezl Harrell can both be relied upon to score in double digits, although the latter has been more consistent.
Like Bryant, power forward Rui Hachimura threatens from behind the arc.
Milwaukee's Rim Protection
Washington's focus on scoring at the basket is important because, this year, Milwaukee's rim protection has regressed.
The Bucks are allowing more field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. They are also allowing opponents to be more efficient from the same distance.
This regression was inevitable with the loss of Brook Lopez, who was a consistently solid rim-protector for his team.
Without Lopez, the Wizards match up strongly against the Buck defense.
Milwaukee's Three-Pointers
Offensively, the Bucks rely heavily on three-pointers. They attempt the fourth-most per game.
They continued to make three-point shooting an emphasis during the offseason.
Despite Lopez's absence -- he was a useful floor-spacer -- Milwaukee still has the personnel at the center position and elsewhere to shoot a lot of threes.
I like the Wizard defense tonight, though, because it does not allow many easy opportunities from behind the arc.
By a large margin, the Wizards allow wide-open three-point attempts with the NBA's lowest frequency.
Best Bet: Wizards ATS (Odds TBA)
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Key Injury
Washington's leading scorer, Bradley Beal, has been ruled out for this game.
Beal is still recovering from a sprained wrist that he suffered during his team's last game against Memphis.
His absence is significant, but ultimately not for the reasons you may think.
Of course, no one player can replace his productivity. He leads the team with 23.2 points per game, which is over seven more than any other teammate.
This unique degree of productivity will compel oddsmakers to adjust too strongly for his absence.
We have already seen them make this over-adjustment several times.
Without Beal, the Wizards are 5-4 ATS.
It is true that this ATS record does not look extremely attractive.
But consider that the Wizards' ATS record with Beal is 14-25-1.
These two ATS records indicate that the Wizards are covering at a 20-percent higher rate without Beal in the lineup than with Beal.
Thus, Beal's absence is significant not so much because he's a good player but because oddsmakers will give Wizard backers a greater deal because of how strongly the public perceives the significance of his absence.
Driving Inside
The best service that Beal provided was via his ability to score at the basket.
He drove a lot of times per game to the hoop in order to earn an and-one or otherwise score.
But it would be misleading in a sense to say that the Wizards rank as highly as they do in field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket largely because of him.
Beal makes up a large percentage of those particular field goal attempts because of the time he's spent playing on the court.
Without Beal, the Wizards still have other guys who like to do the same thing, who like to attack the hoop, and who will do more of the same thing when they get more playing time in place of Beal.
For example, in their most recent three-game stretch without Beal -- the Wizards played without him from January 11 to January 15 -- they still averaged almost the same number of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and were actually more efficient.
Guys like Kyle Kuzma, Raul Neto, and Spencer Dinwiddie also like to drive to the basket.
These three players average over seven or over 10 drives per game.
Dinwiddie was one key figure in Beal's absence as he scored 22 points on January 11 and 27 on January 15.
Washington is also active in front of the basket because of its host of bigs whom it employs.
For example, Thomas Bryant, who started on last year's playoff roster, is becoming more active with the rest of the starting lineup.
But Daniel Gafford and the energetic dunker Montrezl Harrell can both be relied upon to score in double digits, although the latter has been more consistent.
Like Bryant, power forward Rui Hachimura threatens from behind the arc.
Milwaukee's Rim Protection
Washington's focus on scoring at the basket is important because, this year, Milwaukee's rim protection has regressed.
The Bucks are allowing more field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. They are also allowing opponents to be more efficient from the same distance.
This regression was inevitable with the loss of Brook Lopez, who was a consistently solid rim-protector for his team.
Without Lopez, the Wizards match up strongly against the Buck defense.
Milwaukee's Three-Pointers
Offensively, the Bucks rely heavily on three-pointers. They attempt the fourth-most per game.
They continued to make three-point shooting an emphasis during the offseason.
Despite Lopez's absence -- he was a useful floor-spacer -- Milwaukee still has the personnel at the center position and elsewhere to shoot a lot of threes.
I like the Wizard defense tonight, though, because it does not allow many easy opportunities from behind the arc.
By a large margin, the Wizards allow wide-open three-point attempts with the NBA's lowest frequency.
Best Bet: Wizards ATS (Odds TBA)
