NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Atlanta’s Offense
Atlanta’s offense revolves around point guard Trae Young.
Almost no other team relies so heavily on a single player for its offensive impetus.
Evidence for this heavy reliance lies in the fact that Young ranks eighth in usage rate.
Young leads Atlanta’s pick-and-roll game. Largely thanks to Young, the Hawks run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the fourth-highest frequency.
They also run the pick-and-roll for the roll man with the fourth-highest frequency.
Ball-screens give Young options and inject an element of unpredictability into Atlanta’s offensive flow.
See 46 seconds in the following video to see what I mean:
When Young’s teammate sets a screen, Young looks to see how Piston defenders react as the screen-setter rolls to the basket.
Perceiving that the Piston defenders are not tagging the roller, Young locates him for a high-percentage scoring opportunity.
While not apparent in this particular play, Young is known for lobbing the ball to teammates at the basket.
The threat of a lob keeps opposing defenders pinned to the basket. But when they give Young too much space, Young will punish them by pulling up for a jumper.
Hawk Offense vs. Wizard Defense
Atlanta’s offense matches up well with Washington’s defense because the latter allows the second-most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball handler.
Young’s prowess as a ball-handler and the Wizards’ particular defensive weakness explain why, this season, Young is averaging more points per game against the Wizards than against any other team.
In two games against the Wizards so far, Young is averaging 38.5 points per game, flexing his shooting efficiency both inside and outside the arc.
Washington’s defense has allowed over 120 points in six straight games and Young will help prolong that streak.
Russell Westbrook
The Wizard offense has accrued over 120 points in seven straight games.
This streak has continued despite the absence of injured guard Bradley Beal.
Without Beal, the Wizard offense is centered around star point guard Russell Westbrook.
Westbrook is happy to shoulder the offensive load. In doing so, Westbrook has recently broken multiple records.
He has become the new NBA career leader in triple doubles. Moreover, he became the first player in NBA history to accrue 50 rebounds and 50 assists in a three-game span.
Westbrook’s high-level ability as a facilitator gets teammates involved, such that lesser-known players accrue high point totals.
He’ll use his fast pace and ability to run the court while being aware of his surroundings in order to put defenses into precarious positions.
With his driving ability, he’ll draw defenders to him. Then he’ll locate a teammate and get the ball to him with a crisp pass.
You can see in the following video how extensive Westbrook’s repertoire is as a passer:
He’ll fit a bounce pass into a tight pocket, toss the ball behind his back, heave a pass downcourt, and so forth.
Wizard Offense vs. Hawk Defense
Russell Westbrook will be extra comfortable tonight as he’s guarded by his counterpart Trae Young.
Limited by his physical stature, Young was never thought to have much of a defensive ceiling.
Young’s awful defensive rating attests to his weakness as a defender. He lacks the ability to make Westbrook uncomfortable in any way.
Atlanta’s defense has allowed over 120 points in both of its last two games.
This trend promises to continue partly because De’Andre Hunter will miss tonight’s game in order to rest his surgically repaired knee.
Hunter has a solid defensive rating because he is a reliable defender with his length and lateral foot speed.
Rematch
These two teams played on Monday. Atlanta won 125-124, failing to cover the spread. The game sailed “over.”
I expect another “over” between these two teams for the above reasons.
But I like Atlanta to cover the spread this time because I expect Monday's three-point percentage differential to even out.
Whereas the Wizards shot well above their average, the Hawks struggled to an anomalous degree from behind the arc.
Young in particular had an off day from behind the arc, but should bounce back. He’s still converting 34.9 percent of his three-point opportunities.
Also note that the Hawks are enjoying a 6-1 ATS run on the first day of a back-to-back. So the Hawks are in a favorable situation tonight that they weren’t in on Monday.
Parlay Verdict
Westbrook and Young will light things up with their offense, while doing little defensively to make the opposing star point guard uncomfortable.
This time, Atlanta will pull away with a more favorable three-point shooting differential.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks -5.5 at -110 & Over 239.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Atlanta’s Offense
Atlanta’s offense revolves around point guard Trae Young.
Almost no other team relies so heavily on a single player for its offensive impetus.
Evidence for this heavy reliance lies in the fact that Young ranks eighth in usage rate.
Young leads Atlanta’s pick-and-roll game. Largely thanks to Young, the Hawks run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the fourth-highest frequency.
They also run the pick-and-roll for the roll man with the fourth-highest frequency.
Ball-screens give Young options and inject an element of unpredictability into Atlanta’s offensive flow.
See 46 seconds in the following video to see what I mean:
When Young’s teammate sets a screen, Young looks to see how Piston defenders react as the screen-setter rolls to the basket.
Perceiving that the Piston defenders are not tagging the roller, Young locates him for a high-percentage scoring opportunity.
While not apparent in this particular play, Young is known for lobbing the ball to teammates at the basket.
The threat of a lob keeps opposing defenders pinned to the basket. But when they give Young too much space, Young will punish them by pulling up for a jumper.
Hawk Offense vs. Wizard Defense
Atlanta’s offense matches up well with Washington’s defense because the latter allows the second-most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball handler.
Young’s prowess as a ball-handler and the Wizards’ particular defensive weakness explain why, this season, Young is averaging more points per game against the Wizards than against any other team.
In two games against the Wizards so far, Young is averaging 38.5 points per game, flexing his shooting efficiency both inside and outside the arc.
Washington’s defense has allowed over 120 points in six straight games and Young will help prolong that streak.
Russell Westbrook
The Wizard offense has accrued over 120 points in seven straight games.
This streak has continued despite the absence of injured guard Bradley Beal.
Without Beal, the Wizard offense is centered around star point guard Russell Westbrook.
Westbrook is happy to shoulder the offensive load. In doing so, Westbrook has recently broken multiple records.
He has become the new NBA career leader in triple doubles. Moreover, he became the first player in NBA history to accrue 50 rebounds and 50 assists in a three-game span.
Westbrook’s high-level ability as a facilitator gets teammates involved, such that lesser-known players accrue high point totals.
He’ll use his fast pace and ability to run the court while being aware of his surroundings in order to put defenses into precarious positions.
With his driving ability, he’ll draw defenders to him. Then he’ll locate a teammate and get the ball to him with a crisp pass.
You can see in the following video how extensive Westbrook’s repertoire is as a passer:
He’ll fit a bounce pass into a tight pocket, toss the ball behind his back, heave a pass downcourt, and so forth.
Wizard Offense vs. Hawk Defense
Russell Westbrook will be extra comfortable tonight as he’s guarded by his counterpart Trae Young.
Limited by his physical stature, Young was never thought to have much of a defensive ceiling.
Young’s awful defensive rating attests to his weakness as a defender. He lacks the ability to make Westbrook uncomfortable in any way.
Atlanta’s defense has allowed over 120 points in both of its last two games.
This trend promises to continue partly because De’Andre Hunter will miss tonight’s game in order to rest his surgically repaired knee.
Hunter has a solid defensive rating because he is a reliable defender with his length and lateral foot speed.
Rematch
These two teams played on Monday. Atlanta won 125-124, failing to cover the spread. The game sailed “over.”
I expect another “over” between these two teams for the above reasons.
But I like Atlanta to cover the spread this time because I expect Monday's three-point percentage differential to even out.
Whereas the Wizards shot well above their average, the Hawks struggled to an anomalous degree from behind the arc.
Young in particular had an off day from behind the arc, but should bounce back. He’s still converting 34.9 percent of his three-point opportunities.
Also note that the Hawks are enjoying a 6-1 ATS run on the first day of a back-to-back. So the Hawks are in a favorable situation tonight that they weren’t in on Monday.
Parlay Verdict
Westbrook and Young will light things up with their offense, while doing little defensively to make the opposing star point guard uncomfortable.
This time, Atlanta will pull away with a more favorable three-point shooting differential.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks -5.5 at -110 & Over 239.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
