Wise Power 400 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Wise Power 400 Race Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Wise Power 400
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California

Race Info


NASCAR's Cup Series resumes this Sunday with the Wise Power 400 at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California.

For this racing event, drivers must complete a total of 200 laps.

As is normally the case, there are three stages for this event.

Stage 1 consists in the first 65 laps. Stage 2 likewise requires 65 laps. Stage 3 consists in the final 70 laps.

An entry list has already been posted for this event. 36 drivers/teams are listed.

As for the starting lineup, that will not get published on Wednesday as was usually the case last season.

Instead, the starting lineup will be announced after the results of qualifying.

Qualifying will take place on Saturday at 11:35 a.m. ET and it will directly follow a practice session that begins at 11 a.m. ET

Track Info

The Auto Club Speedway is a D-shaped oval.

It is long track, a superspeedway -- at least for now.

In order to boost attendance, NASCAR officials expressed plans to convert this track to a half-mile-per-lap short track. But such plans haven't been pursued quickly enough for any such changes to take place this year.

Another thing that's staying the same is that the track isn't being repaved.

After last being repaved in 1997, it was supposed to be repaved in 2017.

But drivers, such as Martin Truex Jr., were vocal about leaving it the way it was.

This track can be slippery especially when it's warm and sunny. Its surface is also rough.

These track features are relevant to our betting endeavors for this race because they require us to place extra emphasis on driver skill.

Drivers will need to be extra good at maneuvering their cars in order to master the surface

That being said, the track is uniquely wide. So passing shouldn't be that difficult as it's sometimes thought to be here.

Given this last detail, I don't think that starting lineup information will be very helpful.

Specifications

To be exact, each lap is two miles long.

So in completing 200 laps, drivers will have completed 400 miles.

There are four turns. They are banked at 14 degrees, which isn't much. The frontstretch is banked at an usually high 11 degrees and the backstretch is banked at three degrees.

Drivers to Avoid

One driver to avoid is Martin Truex Jr.

He is very hit-or-miss at this track and he misses more often than he hits.

His average finishing position here is 17.45, which is almost three places worse than his average starting position.

At least Truex Jr. has won a single time here, however.

Conversely, Denny Hamlin has never won at the Auto Club Speedway despite racing at this track 19 times.

He's benefitted multiple times from terrific starting position but to no avail.

In fact, he often drops 10 or more places when his starting position is superb.

Hamlin has anyhow looked poor this season as evident in his finishing positions.

My Guy

I like Kyle Busch the most and I'm not sure why he isn't favored to win this race.

His form can't explain why he isn't favored. He's done well so far, most recently finishing sixth after starting 10th at Daytona despite the fact that the Daytona 500 is historically one of his worst races.

Unlike Daytona, the Auto Club Speedway is one of his best tracks.

He's won here four times while no other active driver has won here multiple times.

Most recently, he's finished top-three in three straight tries at this track.

Given this trend, let's bet on him to finish top-three.

Best Bet: Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish at +190 with Bovada
 
Wise Power 400 Race Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Wise Power 400
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California

Race Info


NASCAR's Cup Series resumes this Sunday with the Wise Power 400 at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California.

For this racing event, drivers must complete a total of 200 laps.

As is normally the case, there are three stages for this event.

Stage 1 consists in the first 65 laps. Stage 2 likewise requires 65 laps. Stage 3 consists in the final 70 laps.

An entry list has already been posted for this event. 36 drivers/teams are listed.

As for the starting lineup, that will not get published on Wednesday as was usually the case last season.

Instead, the starting lineup will be announced after the results of qualifying.

Qualifying will take place on Saturday at 11:35 a.m. ET and it will directly follow a practice session that begins at 11 a.m. ET

Track Info

The Auto Club Speedway is a D-shaped oval.

It is long track, a superspeedway -- at least for now.

In order to boost attendance, NASCAR officials expressed plans to convert this track to a half-mile-per-lap short track. But such plans haven't been pursued quickly enough for any such changes to take place this year.

Another thing that's staying the same is that the track isn't being repaved.

After last being repaved in 1997, it was supposed to be repaved in 2017.

But drivers, such as Martin Truex Jr., were vocal about leaving it the way it was.

This track can be slippery especially when it's warm and sunny. Its surface is also rough.

These track features are relevant to our betting endeavors for this race because they require us to place extra emphasis on driver skill.

Drivers will need to be extra good at maneuvering their cars in order to master the surface

That being said, the track is uniquely wide. So passing shouldn't be that difficult as it's sometimes thought to be here.

Given this last detail, I don't think that starting lineup information will be very helpful.

Specifications

To be exact, each lap is two miles long.

So in completing 200 laps, drivers will have completed 400 miles.

There are four turns. They are banked at 14 degrees, which isn't much. The frontstretch is banked at an usually high 11 degrees and the backstretch is banked at three degrees.

Drivers to Avoid

One driver to avoid is Martin Truex Jr.

He is very hit-or-miss at this track and he misses more often than he hits.

His average finishing position here is 17.45, which is almost three places worse than his average starting position.

At least Truex Jr. has won a single time here, however.

Conversely, Denny Hamlin has never won at the Auto Club Speedway despite racing at this track 19 times.

He's benefitted multiple times from terrific starting position but to no avail.

In fact, he often drops 10 or more places when his starting position is superb.

Hamlin has anyhow looked poor this season as evident in his finishing positions.

My Guy

I like Kyle Busch the most and I'm not sure why he isn't favored to win this race.

His form can't explain why he isn't favored. He's done well so far, most recently finishing sixth after starting 10th at Daytona despite the fact that the Daytona 500 is historically one of his worst races.

Unlike Daytona, the Auto Club Speedway is one of his best tracks.

He's won here four times while no other active driver has won here multiple times.

Most recently, he's finished top-three in three straight tries at this track.

Given this trend, let's bet on him to finish top-three.

Best Bet: Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish at +190 with Bovada
Yep, last week I was all over the Ford cars and Bubba, and no Hendrick cars or Chevys.

This week it will be Hendrick and Kyle Busch.

Kyle is better when we have practice and qualifying, We had no qualifying last year and maybe practice once or twice. He will be better, in general, this year.

Blaney also runs well here.

I have bet $20 on Kyle to win at +780.
 
We'll find out alot this week about the new car. Chevy was fast in qualifying, absolute dogshit in the pack in the race at Daytona.

Chevy is listed -105 to be winning manufacture.

Larson is the favorite and has already won here back in 2017. But at +450, I'll look elsewhere.

I'll probably tread lightly again on H2Hs until we have a better grasp.

But Hate is right, KB is definitely better with practice and qualifying, that top 10 is definitely a strong play, as is the outright.
 
Lots of wrecks in the short Group A practice. Buscher and Bell with minor spins but did not hit/hurt anything. Harvick and Chastain all spun and hit the wall. Chastain in the worst shape.

Hamlin and Kyle Busch were the fastest, but Kyle was complaining about his car getting loose.
 
Reddick the fastest in the short Group B practice and 3rd in overall speeds.
Reddick is probably a good bet this week pending the matchup since this is a driver's track.

Bubba spun and brushed the wall, but was 7th fastest overall.
Bubba is probably a good fad this week pending the matchup. He did not get much practice in the new car over the offseason. He is not one of the better drivers. There will probably be some that think his showing at Daytona is a sign of better things to come, but he runs well at the superspeedways.

4 Toyotas in the Top 10 in speeds. Faded them last week, but not this week.
 
This is gonna be a crazy race. Keselowski, Almirola, Logano, Chase, and Byron all spun in qualifying. I do not ever remember more than one car spinning in qualifying and never the veteran drivers. Logano hit the wall.

Cindric and Eric Jones on the front row.

Kyle Busch and Hamlin on row two.

Qualifying should not mean much here as speeds quickly drop off after a couple of laps. Based on the number of wrecks, a good handling car that is consistent is better than pure speed.
 
The Cup race couod be a wreck fest judging by qualifying.

Hate is right. Reddick could be a good bet. Looks like from the Xfinity race it could be fast up against the wall, sort of like Miami. And that track and style is in Reddicks wheelhouse.
 
Played:

Keselowski +100 over Harvick
Cindric +120 over Brisco (I don't understand this, maybe someone else does)
Suarez +125 over Burton (discussion below)

Betting on Suarez at + money against Burton purely due to Burton being a rookie with less experience which will matter a lot today based on practice and qualifying.
 
I played Dillon -115 over Chastain. Trying to fade Chastain after a pretty rough wreck yesterday.
 
Played:

Keselowski +100 over Harvick
Cindric +120 over Brisco (I don't understand this, maybe someone else does)
Suarez +125 over Burton (discussion below)

Betting on Suarez at + money against Burton purely due to Burton being a rookie with less experience which will matter a lot today based on practice and qualifying.
It looks like Suarez +125 was a bad line that they posted. It is now -125.
 
Played:

Keselowski +100 over Harvick
Cindric +120 over Brisco (I don't understand this, maybe someone else does)
Suarez +125 over Burton (discussion below)

Betting on Suarez at + money against Burton purely due to Burton being a rookie with less experience which will matter a lot today based on practice and qualifying.

So my place has

Briscoe -150 Cindric +120
Briscoe -120 Almirola -110
Cindric -170 Almirola +140

Makes no sense
 
Also played Kurt Busch +240 to win Group D at Draftkings against Bell, Chastain, and Buscher

Busch has to start at the back due to failed inspections, but he was already starting at the back since he did not qualify. He also has to do a passthrough penalty after the green flag due to failed inspections. It will be close, but I doubt he goes a lap down. Also, I expect lots of wrecks so a caution would allow for him to get his lap back or catch up to the field. Lastly, Nascar will have a competition caution at lap 20, so at worse, he could get his lap back or catch up to the field at lap 20.

He is better at all of those drivers at this track and at tracks like this.

So, I have:

Large:
Cindric +120 over Brisco
Suarez +125 over Burton

Medium:
Kurt Busch to win Group D
Keselowski +100 over Harvick

$20 bet on Kyle to win = $156
 
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Still have a learning curve to get around with this New Gen Car but I'm with you guys on Kyle Busch.

Been awhile since he was outside the Top 5 here and qualified 3rd and had the 2nd best time in practice, 5 lap avg and 10 lap avg.

Barring any aggression or mechanical failure he looks quite solid. Big play for me Top 5 (+100) and making a play outright (+700)
 
Larson to the rear for an equipment change (ignition panel).

Chase, Hamlin, Kyle, and Reddick's chances now look better with so many good cars starting from the rear.

Trying to find a way to bet Reddick, but he is favored by a lot in his matchups. I may bet Reddick +220 Top 5
 
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Total dick punch on Reddick. Clearly best car all day.
Yeah, he is gonna be really good on most tracks this year, but based on how much he was favored in his matchups this week, I don't know how bettable he will be.

Wrecks have affected all of my bets. Some positively and some negatively.
 
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