Wisconsin vs. Northwestern: NCAAF Week 12 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois
History
History very much favors Northwestern.
Since the Big Ten split into divisions in 2011, Wisconsin is 40-7 against Big Ten West opponents. Three of those losses came against the Wildcats.
So the Wildcats are 3-4 against Wisconsin in that span, although they’ve regularly been underdogs.
Recently, this has been a match-up where the underdog has thrived. Overall, Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Wisconsin.
In terms of team history, Northwestern is 4-0 for the first time since 1996.
Its historically strong start is reflected in the difficulty that characterizes oddsmakers’ attempt to account for how good it is.
Currently, Northwestern is undefeated against the spread. In three of their covers, they’ve at least doubled the spread as favorites.
Wisconsin Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
Despite losing 2,000-yard rusher Jonathan Taylor to the NFL, Wisconsin maintains a clearly run-first identity.
Its desire to run the ball is manifest in the fact that it owns the nation’s fifth-highest run play percentage.
The problem with this insistence is that Northwestern possesses a top-caliber run defense.
The Wildcats rank 13th in opposing rushing yards per game while averaging 3.6 YPC.
Those numbers include the damage that Nebraska was able to inflict with its running quarterbacks. With its personnel, Wisconsin does not have the ability to attempt what Nebraska did.
One cannot simply say that the Wildcats have faced a soft schedule.
Opposing non-quarterbacks have attempted 75 rushes for 242 yards, which amounts to 3.2 YPC. 3.2 opposing YPC would put the Wildcats’ run defense top-20 nationally.
Consider that those non-quarterbacks have accrued 1,325 yards on 5.5 YPC against other games.
The fact that opponents perform so much worse against them on the ground substantiates the legitimacy of Northwestern’s defensive prowess.
Many opponents simply decide to abandon the run, which is why their run play percentage is specifically lower against the Wildcats.
But can Wisconsin afford to do that?
Transitioning to a pass-first impetus would involve changing its identity.
Wisconsin also suffers from the loss of its top wide receiver, Quintez Cephus. He had 30 more receptions and over 400 receiving yards more than the next-best Badger wide receiver.
With Cephus gone, the Badgers lack a standout wide receiver.
Northwestern Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
I place much more trust in Northwestern’s offense to maintain balance than I do Wisconsin’s behind its inexperienced and unproven former backup quarterback and its thin wide receiver crew.
Both pass defenses rank top-10, although Northwestern’s has been tested more heavily at least in terms of sheer volume. Its opposing run play percentage is sixth-lowest in the nation.
Wisconsin’s pass defense looks more vulnerable because it already shows flaws against softer competition.
For starters, the Badger pass rush is not what it was last year. In 2019, Wisconsin ranked second nationally in sack percentage.
This year, the Badgers rank 38th nationally in the category. They really miss linebackers Chris Orr and Zack Baun who had 24 of the team’s 51 sacks last season before managing to sign with NFL teams.
Northwestern quarterback Peyton Ramsey will have time to sit in the pocket and deliver to any one of his wide receivers, if Ramsey isn’t on the move like on a bootleg play.
The Wildcats will spread out Wisconsin with multi-receiver formations and allow Ramsey to take what the defense gives him.
Behind a veteran offensive line, which has been a valuable point of emphasis in recruiting, the Wildcats will ground and pound with a variety of running backs.
Like in Wisconsin’s offense, there isn’t exactly star power. But the Wildcats reliably sustain productive drives when they need to, as comeback wins against Iowa and Nebraska show.
The Verdict
Offensively, Wisconsin lacks the pieces to separate itself from a top-level Northwestern defense that will plague Wisconsin’s run-first offense.
Both Northwestern and Wisconsin lack significant pieces on offense. Instead, we’ll get a grinding, defensive contest where Ramsey, now supported by a physical run game and chemistry with multiple popular targets, will come through when he has to.
For the above reasons, take advantage of the massively unfair disrespect being shown to Northwestern at the top sports betting sites.
Best Bet: Wildcats +7.5 at -105 with Bovada
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois
History
History very much favors Northwestern.
Since the Big Ten split into divisions in 2011, Wisconsin is 40-7 against Big Ten West opponents. Three of those losses came against the Wildcats.
So the Wildcats are 3-4 against Wisconsin in that span, although they’ve regularly been underdogs.
Recently, this has been a match-up where the underdog has thrived. Overall, Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Wisconsin.
In terms of team history, Northwestern is 4-0 for the first time since 1996.
Its historically strong start is reflected in the difficulty that characterizes oddsmakers’ attempt to account for how good it is.
Currently, Northwestern is undefeated against the spread. In three of their covers, they’ve at least doubled the spread as favorites.
Wisconsin Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
Despite losing 2,000-yard rusher Jonathan Taylor to the NFL, Wisconsin maintains a clearly run-first identity.
Its desire to run the ball is manifest in the fact that it owns the nation’s fifth-highest run play percentage.
The problem with this insistence is that Northwestern possesses a top-caliber run defense.
The Wildcats rank 13th in opposing rushing yards per game while averaging 3.6 YPC.
Those numbers include the damage that Nebraska was able to inflict with its running quarterbacks. With its personnel, Wisconsin does not have the ability to attempt what Nebraska did.
One cannot simply say that the Wildcats have faced a soft schedule.
Opposing non-quarterbacks have attempted 75 rushes for 242 yards, which amounts to 3.2 YPC. 3.2 opposing YPC would put the Wildcats’ run defense top-20 nationally.
Consider that those non-quarterbacks have accrued 1,325 yards on 5.5 YPC against other games.
The fact that opponents perform so much worse against them on the ground substantiates the legitimacy of Northwestern’s defensive prowess.
Many opponents simply decide to abandon the run, which is why their run play percentage is specifically lower against the Wildcats.
But can Wisconsin afford to do that?
Transitioning to a pass-first impetus would involve changing its identity.
Wisconsin also suffers from the loss of its top wide receiver, Quintez Cephus. He had 30 more receptions and over 400 receiving yards more than the next-best Badger wide receiver.
With Cephus gone, the Badgers lack a standout wide receiver.
Northwestern Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
I place much more trust in Northwestern’s offense to maintain balance than I do Wisconsin’s behind its inexperienced and unproven former backup quarterback and its thin wide receiver crew.
Both pass defenses rank top-10, although Northwestern’s has been tested more heavily at least in terms of sheer volume. Its opposing run play percentage is sixth-lowest in the nation.
Wisconsin’s pass defense looks more vulnerable because it already shows flaws against softer competition.
For starters, the Badger pass rush is not what it was last year. In 2019, Wisconsin ranked second nationally in sack percentage.
This year, the Badgers rank 38th nationally in the category. They really miss linebackers Chris Orr and Zack Baun who had 24 of the team’s 51 sacks last season before managing to sign with NFL teams.
Northwestern quarterback Peyton Ramsey will have time to sit in the pocket and deliver to any one of his wide receivers, if Ramsey isn’t on the move like on a bootleg play.
The Wildcats will spread out Wisconsin with multi-receiver formations and allow Ramsey to take what the defense gives him.
Behind a veteran offensive line, which has been a valuable point of emphasis in recruiting, the Wildcats will ground and pound with a variety of running backs.
Like in Wisconsin’s offense, there isn’t exactly star power. But the Wildcats reliably sustain productive drives when they need to, as comeback wins against Iowa and Nebraska show.
The Verdict
Offensively, Wisconsin lacks the pieces to separate itself from a top-level Northwestern defense that will plague Wisconsin’s run-first offense.
Both Northwestern and Wisconsin lack significant pieces on offense. Instead, we’ll get a grinding, defensive contest where Ramsey, now supported by a physical run game and chemistry with multiple popular targets, will come through when he has to.
For the above reasons, take advantage of the massively unfair disrespect being shown to Northwestern at the top sports betting sites.
Best Bet: Wildcats +7.5 at -105 with Bovada
