Wisconsin at Michigan St Game Discussion

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
Wisconsin at Michigan St - Saturday 12pm est on Big 10 Network

How the hell is this line dropping? Of course I hopped in last night at -5 -110 and can now get it at -3.5 -105. At 5 I was intending to make it one of my larger plays in recent memory. Get to 3 and I'll have to find a second job if it loses.

Brief take on this game:
  • Wisky playing first road game of the season
  • Wisky freshman QB making first start, on the road, in Big 10 opener
    • Only prior college game action was against Akron and Georgia St
  • Wisconsin struggles to score inside the red zone (believe they have one of the worst TD % in Big 10)
  • Wisconsin had all preseason to prepare for LSU, lot of instate kids hyped to play at Lambeau, they played above their ability in my opinion
    • Wisconsin gets a lot of extra calls at home, happens in football and basketball all the time. For example, Wisconsin was not flagged for a single penalty last week when they eeked out a win against Georgia State
    • Through three games, UW has drawn a total of eight penalties for 95 yards, an average of just 2.7 flags per game that ranks in a tie for third in FBS. I think Wisconsin has just a few more called against them this week (especially on the road with a freshmen QB)
  • Wisconsin Injuries...
    • Wisconsin is down freshman RB Bradrick Shaw who was the main running back last week, not too big of an issue if Taiwan Deal and especially Corey Clement are healthy, but depth at RB could be an issue. Also, I'm assuming Clement is playing, but if he doesn't Wisconsin will be in a world of hurt
    • Starting left guard Jon Dietzen is also out, but his backup is questionable as well (Micah Kapoi)
    • Cornerback Natrell Jamerson is out
    • And a guy that's getting hardly any press for being out is kicker Rafael "Fatty" Gaglianone. He's a legit kicker and I have as much confidence in him as I would an NFL kicker from 50 and in. Replacing him will be the kickoff specialist Andrew Endicott. Endicott is a redshirt senior who has not attempted a field goal since high school!!!!
  • Don't see any injuries for MSU?!?!
  • First time teams have played since 2012
    • Prior to that the average score between the two teams is 4.9 points over the previous 7 match-ups
  • Wisconsin last won in East Lansing in 2002
  • MSU has 10 wins over ranked teams since 2010, including their last four against top 10 teams in the regular season

Questions that need to be answered:
  • Can Wisconsin control the clock and grind, grind, grind?
  • Was Georgia St a look ahead game for Wisky and will MSU be coming down from "upsetting" Notre Dame?
  • How good is Wisconsin defense? Will they make the big stops like they did against LSU?
 
My uninformed and pointless prediction...

Wisconsin struggles to move the ball consistently and can't pick up 3rd downs in the first half. Wisconsin defense gets beat for a big pass play early and is down 7-0. A quick 3 and out, a bad punt, and Michigan St is already in field goal range with Wisconsin holding to make it a 10-0 game. A defensive score from Michigan State and a Wisconsin fg in first half make it 17-3 at halftime. Wisconsin loosens up a bit in the 2H with a TD in third quarter to make it a ball game, but it all goes down hill from there as Michigan St controls the clock and ultimately the game.

Final
Michigan St 31
Wisconsin 13

I'm already on Michigan St -5, and will make it one of my larger plays at -6 and under. Not sure how smart I can be if that line gets down to -3. Probably make a decent size wager on MSU team total over 22/23 (assuming it will be 23.5 or under).
 
I love Dantonio but I really question him in that Conner Cook started over Tyler O'Conner the past 2 seasons. I don't see it and think O'conner is better.
 
I think Sparty might struggle to move it as well....line seems right on to me now. Sparty laying nearly a TD after that upset win last week felt like too much IF Clement is 100%.
 
ArizonaKid said:
I love Dantonio but I really question him in that Conner Cook started over Tyler O'Conner the past 2 seasons. I don't see it and think O'conner is better.
Click to expand...

I am not really surprised that D'Antonio didn't bench his senior captain for a guy that had thrown 15 career passes
 
This line has moved all the way to MSU -3.5??? can this movement be explained? Looks like RLM with the public being all over the Spartans.
 
Teams that beat the Irish SU as dogs are 12-22-1 ATS as a fave the following game (1-7 ATS when favored by 6 or less).
 
College Football

GAME #361-362

Wisconsin - RB Corey Clement (Ankle) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Michigan State
 
Wisconsin will load the box and expect MSU to beat them through the air, which is exactly what the Spartans will do imo
The Michigan State ground game is averaging 215.5 y/g Defensively, MSU is allowing 20.5 points and 313.5 yards per game.I have Michigan St. winning 24-17

BOL Fondy, Enjoy ur game

:cheers3: :cheers3:
 
Timh said:
College Football

GAME #361-362

Wisconsin - RB Corey Clement (Ankle) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Michigan State
Click to expand...

Assumed as much. Thought him sitting out last week was a precaution so I was a bit surprised he was listed as questionable all week.

bloodhound said:
Wisconsin will load the box and expect MSU to beat them through the air, which is exactly what the Spartans will do imo
The Michigan State ground game is averaging 215.5 y/g Defensively, MSU is allowing 20.5 points and 313.5 yards per game.I have Michigan St. winning 24-17

BOL Fondy, Enjoy ur game

:cheers3: :cheers3:
Click to expand...

I already have that sneaky suspicion that MSU wins by 1 or 2 so we'll see how much I enjoy things
 
Oh jeebus...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just warm-ups but <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Badgers?src=hash">#Badgers</a> have Connors at C and Deiter at LG on No. 1 line. Likely preparing just in case but....</p>&mdash; Jeff Potrykus (@jaypo1961) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaypo1961/status/779704582125391872">September 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wow! So That is NOT prepping for worst-case scenario. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Badgers?src=hash">#Badgers</a> set to start Brett Connors at C and Deiter at LG.</p>&mdash; Jeff Potrykus (@jaypo1961) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaypo1961/status/779705085312045056">September 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Badgers?src=hash">#Badgers</a> Brett Connors is former walk-on from NB West High School. Recently put on scholarship.</p>&mdash; Jeff Potrykus (@jaypo1961) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaypo1961/status/779705339016904704">September 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So Wisconsin really has to move the line around because of LG injury...
 
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Badger beat writer "Injuries have been the story of the week for the Badgers, though the news seems to be better for other banged up players. RBs Corey Clement and Taiwan Deal (ankle injuries) are both dressed. The Badgers only brought three running backs, with Dare Ogunbowale being the other."
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">To review <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Badgers?src=hash">#Badgers</a> health: Clement/Deal not 100%; kicker out; 3rd starting OL in 4 games, w/new C. Anything I miss?</p>&mdash; Jeff Potrykus (@jaypo1961) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaypo1961/status/779707219600297984">September 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
More updates on Wisky:

TE Troy Fumagalli (hip) was on the field for warmups and seems to be good to go. Kicker Andrew Endicott, who will handle FG duties due to Rafael Gaglianone's back injury, looked solid in pregame with his longest field goal sailing through from 53 yards
 
mrpickem said:
I'm thinking Sparty 2H play...they are running ball...
...depending on #​
Click to expand...


LJ is a helluva RB but they are not running the ball so far...


i
Michigan State Rushing

[TABLE="class: mod-data rushing, width: 426"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: thin solid rgb(203, 204, 206);">[TR]
[TH="class: name, align: left"][/TH]
[TH="class: car, align: right"]CAR[/TH]
[TH="class: yds, align: right"]YDS[/TH]
[TH="class: avg, align: right"]AVG[/TH]
[TH="class: td, align: right"]TD[/TH]
[TH="class: long, align: right"]LONG[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: boxscore-athlete-3929828"]
[TD="class: name, align: left"]LJ Scott[/TD]
[TD="class: car"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: yds"]43[/TD]
[TD="class: avg"]4.8[/TD]
[TD="class: td"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: long"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: boxscore-athlete-535578"]
[TD="class: name, align: left"]Tyler O'Connor[/TD]
[TD="class: car"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: yds"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: avg"]9.0[/TD]
[TD="class: td"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: long"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: boxscore-athlete-4036509"]
[TD="class: name, align: left"]Donnie Corley[/TD]
[TD="class: car"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: yds"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: avg"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="class: td"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: long"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: boxscore-athlete-550468"]
[TD="class: name, align: left"]Gerald Holmes[/TD]
[TD="class: car"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: yds"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: avg"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="class: td"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: long"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: totals highlight"]
[TD="class: name, align: left"]TEAM[/TD]
[TD="class: car"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: yds"]64[/TD]
[TD="class: avg"]4.9[/TD]
[TD="class: td"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: long"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
ArizonaKid said:
I love Dantonio but I really question him in that Conner Cook started over Tyler O'Conner the past 2 seasons. I don't see it and think O'conner is better.
Click to expand...

T. O'Connor [TABLE="class: mod-data passing"]
<tbody>[TR="class: boxscore-athlete-535578"]
[TD="class: name"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: c-att"]11/27[/TD]
[TD="class: yds"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: td"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: int"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



Ah, yeah . You'll be interviewing for coaching positions any day now
 
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