Wildcard Weekend...
- Thread starter emkee
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emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks fellas.
Lions on a short week and playing on the road in one of the league's more hostile environments.
Detroit hasn't won a road playoff game since 1957.
Their secondary stinks, opposing QB's have been completing passes at a 73% clip.
They're also in a bad 'circadian' spot given it's a late game on the West Coast and the Lions beat to that East Coast time zone.
Hags roll, gonna add another unit.
Lions on a short week and playing on the road in one of the league's more hostile environments.
Detroit hasn't won a road playoff game since 1957.
Their secondary stinks, opposing QB's have been completing passes at a 73% clip.
They're also in a bad 'circadian' spot given it's a late game on the West Coast and the Lions beat to that East Coast time zone.
Hags roll, gonna add another unit.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I like the play, but the circadian garbage is amateur hour.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
It's a scientifically proven angle and far from amateur. You don't argue with scientists, Tip.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I can certainly argue it when it falls on its face so fucking often.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Please provide an example so I know we're on the same page.
I'm talking an East Coast team playing a night game on the West Coast, period. Nothing else.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I'll go with Memphis last night.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
We purely talking NFL here, Tip.
NBA players travel so much that they're better adjusted to various time zones.
Props for the subtle trolling though, Duds would be proud.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
But seriously, I doubt the football ATS percentages of cross country travel are notably different than the ATS percentages of travel. And we see straight up winners all the time. The hardship is built right into the line. Detroit isn't a heavy dog because of time zone. They're a heavy dog because they seemingly never win on the road. Down the street or over the mountains, they don't win away.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Thank you.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
When the Raiders beat the Browns in the early game, when the Niners won in New York, when Seattle won in Atlanta, when Dallas won in San Fran, when Pittsburgh won in Denver, when Denver won in Cleveland, when Baltimore won in Oakland ... where were your rythyms on those days? Those are just NFL playoff games off the top of my head.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
In this particular instance the ATS percentages are. Again specifically for a night game on the West Coast.
And you're right Detroit isn't a heavy dog because of the time zone but it's still an applicable angle for those betting the game.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
The team that was at least a little worse all year long has to play on the road in this round. I'd chalk your percentages up to that and ditch the holistic medicine.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
EAST COAST TEAM PLAYING ON THE WEST COAST AT NIGHT (SNF, MNF, THURSDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT).
There Tip it's in caps, bolded and bright red. Ya get me now.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Detroit has been terrible on the road my entire life. East, west, north, south, Eric Hipple, Charlie Batch, Gary Danielson. Circadian rythyms never entered into it.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
I'm not on the Hags purely because of the circadian shit. That plays a small part.
It's an angle you can use or not use but sharing info/angles is positive in a place like this.
I'm on them because the Lions are a bad road team and an even worse road playoff team traveling on a short week and bringing their shitty defense to a proven playoff tested Hags team with one of the best home advantages in the NFL.
BTW, do you and Duds ever post at the same time.
I'm beginning to think there's some Michael and Latoya shit going on.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Betcrimes will tell you that the road team sucks on Monday and Thursday night anyway, no matter the site. I question The circadian rythyms nonsense. I think it has more to do with, for instance, Fitzpatrick or Sanchez playing in the game.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Dogs fare the worst in such spots. Bills at Hags was a push, btw.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I do admit I think duds is funny. I also warned him that the nba forum is a sensitive sewing circle.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Hey to each his own. Your opinion is your opinion.
Again no harm in sharing angles, trends etc.
If someone finds it useful then good.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I like reading all the stuff, em. You guys just need to take your medicine when you support a play with some of the bullshit. tuck and NBA with their fucking first Friday of the month club. Laugh all the way to the bank, let it roll off your back, but some people are going to call bullshit on circadian rythyms, shady refs, incredible anomalies and spunky bench play cursing your 10-point favorites four games in a row. It's just funny.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
It's not.....if you want to call it a team closer east going west fine, but there is some shit to it tip
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
That's what I hear. Until it doesn't work, then it's the refs or it is what it is.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I'll use a personal "fan" example. The Cavs have beaten the Warriors on the scoreboard four straight games, twice on the road. emkee hasn't cashed one ticket in that span, but has been on the right side each time. Unlucky bastard.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Far from sensitive, Tip. Maybe there are dudes there that are.
Prolonged success = trolls. And the fuckers get real active when things aren't going well, happens in real life.
If I had to rate CTG's resident trolls based on humor and I'm being kind, you'd sit in first place as you actually draw a laugh.
Duds is not funny, dude recycles the same shit over and over and Larry is the dry as fuck debate guy.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I really don't try to troll, I think I just post a lot of times in a row when I'm logged on. Anyway, I only get under skin when you're already under mine, like refs and circadian rythyms irritates the fuck out of me. No hard feelings.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
First thing that comes upmwhen you Google it
In a test to ensure that their findings weren't the result of West Coast teams simply being better during those years, the researchers expanded their scope and looked at every Monday Night Football game played during that twenty-five-year time span. They found that the overall winning percentages for West Coast and East Coast teams were essentially even when the teams were not playing a game against an opponent from the other coast. Nor were the results a reflection of home-field advantage. When an East Coast team traveled to another destination within its same time zone, it won 45 percent of the time. But if a team from the East Coast played somewhere in the Pacific time zone, its winning percentage shrunk to only 29 percent.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I hadn't counted on these findings.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
So your argument was based on the opinion and thoughts of a middle-aged 'Ohio-ian'.
We get it, Tip. You're a meat and potatoes guy.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Bad teams playing poorly on the road on Monday nights 30 years ago doesn't get my attention. We can both win. I can say that's the Lions I know, you can say circadian rythyms.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Teams in this circadian spot on a Saturday are 1-7 SU and ATS on the last 8 occasions.
Average margin of victory for the West Coast home team is 11.1 points.
Coincidentally the Hags are responsible for 4 of those 7 wins and covers in this spot.
Average margin of victory by Seattle is 15 points.
Average margin of victory for the West Coast home team is 11.1 points.
Coincidentally the Hags are responsible for 4 of those 7 wins and covers in this spot.
Average margin of victory by Seattle is 15 points.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Yes but the more angles/intangibles in your favor increases your chance of winning.
When the 4th quarter rolls around it will be close to midnight on the East Coast. That is basically the guts of this angle.
The body peaks at certain times, humanity as a whole is not programmed to operate to their best capacity at such an hour.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I just don't pin it on that. The body's peaks. Seems a reach.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Go argue with the scientists that did the research, I'm merely the messenger.
Anything hitting over 60% in this industry deserves to be taken notice of.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Keep doing your thing Em. Ignore all the bullshit. Nice work yesterday.
I cant lay this number with Pit but wont argue the side with temps in the teens and a decent wind of 15 mph. Tough spot for the fins but just too many points for my liking. Im interested in this total and wanted your thoughts on an under Im staring at a 46.5 and may buy to 48. I expect a lot of running and actually think Mia will hang around for a bit today. Bell likely gets his but I see pit getting mid 20s and Miami in the teens.
I cant lay this number with Pit but wont argue the side with temps in the teens and a decent wind of 15 mph. Tough spot for the fins but just too many points for my liking. Im interested in this total and wanted your thoughts on an under Im staring at a 46.5 and may buy to 48. I expect a lot of running and actually think Mia will hang around for a bit today. Bell likely gets his but I see pit getting mid 20s and Miami in the teens.
