Wildcard Weekend

[smh212]

REGULAR SEASON FINAL NUMBERS:

• Sides: 33-24 +9.86
• Totals: 13-15 -2.70
• Team Totals: 3-2 +.81
• Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
• Teasers: 10-10 -1.10
• Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
• 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total 0-1 -1.10
• 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half total 1-0 +.50
• Parlay: 2-8 -1.32

TOTAL: 70-66 +5.93 units

Sitting at +5.93 units, need 4.07 units to hit my goal of +10 units for the NFL season.Sat out yesterday, jumping in today.MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week: 16-9 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week: 16-9 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.

REGULAR SEASON FINAL TALLY: 32-18 ATS

Wildcard Weekend candidates: MAC of -40>: NONE
Wildcard Weekend FADE candidates: MAC of +40>: DAL (+70.5), CAR (+70)

Det @ Dallas -6.5 48

DAL:
MAC FADE
Dallas WEAK schedule - inflated results
Wk 14 @Chi: 41-28 +9.5
Wk 15 @Phi: 38-27 +8
Wk 16 vs Ind: 42-7 +32
Wk 17 @ Was: 44-17 +21

During the 4 game stretch, the Cowboys faced two teams (PHILA and INDY) that entered the contest with a power ranking above the league average. Entering WK 15, Philly had a slight PR edge, but were trending in the wrong direction. In WK 16, the Colts clearly did not come to play. In the final week of the season, Jason Garrett continued to play his starters deep into the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter despite having nothing to play for, as they were locked into the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] seed. Why would he do this? My guess is that he knows the teams confidence is fragile, and wanted to keep it high.

Dallas strength of schedule over the last month of the season was 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL. So what did Dallas really accomplish? They outperformed the point spread in each game, w/ inflated numbers in the last two. They did it against teams whose PR averaged out to be a full TD below the league average.

Dallas 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL over last month in PTS/PLAY with 0.556. League avg 0.357
Dallas favored off win: 5-17 ATS
Dallas favored off win as favorite: 2-13 ATS
Cowboys favored at home off game as favorite: 1-14 ATS
DALLAS PR last 5 second worst amongst playoff teams (0.67). Even worse over last 8 (0.57)

DET:
Det playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game.
Det AMOV in road games this year: -4
Det AMOV in road games L4: -9.3 [@ AZ (-8), @NE (-25), @Chi (+6), @GB (-10)]
Det offense healthy. Calvin Johnson last five games: 33 catches/499 yards/5 TDs
Det rush defense tops in NFL over last month of season allowing 331 yards or 66.20 per game over their last 5. League average 112 yard/game.
Suh playing is big. PFF grade of +18.1 against run, second best in NFL.
Det 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in Yardage Diff over last month (+64.5), Dallas 14[SUP]th[/SUP] (+17.20).
DET PR last 5 second best amongst playoff teams (+3.31) and third (+1.77) over L8.

Conclusion: My line on this game is Dallas -3.5. The combination of the fact that Dallas is a public team to begin with coupled with the fact that they are carrying a MAC of +70 into this contest is very appealing to the public. However, the breakdown of the final 5 games of the season, tell me that Detroit is the better team. While Dallas has some great pieces in place, it’s Detroit with the better defense, and have playmakers of their own in Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Matt Stafford, and Reggie Bush on offense. This is anyone’s game so getting 7 pts and +250 on the money line appear to be where the value lies. DETROIT +7 (1.5) and DETROIT +250 (.75) are bets.


Cincy/Indy analysis coming soon.

 

[bones]

Thank you for this information. I had played Dallas but was not feeling too good about it. I thought I was forcing something b/c its the playoffs. In any case, your post was final straw and I got off Boys. Whatever happens I am fine. Appreciate your post much

 

[smh212]

Colts/Bengals

Cincy @ Indy -4 48

CIN:
-Marvin Lewis is 0-5 straight-up, and 0-5 ATS in the playoffs
-Eric Winston has stepped up to fill the void at RT when Andre Smith went down in week 9.
The unit has surrendered just 12 sacks, and the 104 total pressures allowed is the least in the NFL. They finished the season with a unit Pass Blocking Efficiency of 85, third-best among all offensive lines.
-AJ Green out. Green also missed the week 7 matchup (27-0 Indy win). Jermaine Gresham OUT.
-Since Jeremy Hill took over starting duties in Week 9, he has gained the second-most yards after contact with 508 to go along with a league-leading 929 yards and 5.4 avg. His 2.95 Yco/Att is fourth in the NFL.
- Cincy is 17[SUP]th[/SUP] in schedule difficulty over the last month of the season.
- Cincy is 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff (+17.8) over their L5.
- Cincy improvement in defense: Defensive Yards/Game ranking 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] on the season, BUT 11[SUP]th[/SUP] over last 5, BUT Cincy struggling in key defensive indicators: 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in sacks over last 5, AND rank in the bottom half of the league in YARDS/PLAY, PTS/MIN of POSS, and PTS/PLAY.
Cincy +14 Mac L4. NET PR L5 +1.04, NET PR L8 = +0.91 – both are slightly better than an average NFL team.

IND:
Luck not in a good place. Per PFF:
Since a monster +5.0 in Week 13, Luck hasn’t graded positively and the stretch includes two red grades. His final quarter of the season grade was -4.4, tied for 24th with Mark Sanchez, and his -5.0 passing grade was 26th, just ahead of Andy Dalton’s -5.1. Digging into the PFF Signature Stats, Luck’s accuracy has fallen by the wayside. His Accuracy Percentage for all throws in Weeks 1-13 was a very solid 75.3, good for 12th in the league, a figure that was just 1.1% from being tied for fifth with Aaron Rodgers. In the final four weeks of the season, Luck’s accuracy plummeted to 65.5% which was 28th in the NFL, just ahead of Drew Stanton and Blake Bortles.
An even bigger drop-off was his Deep Passing accuracy. At 53.7%, Luck was tied for third in the first 3/4 of the season, a figure that was 0.2% better than Rodgers, but in the final four weeks he was 28.6% accurate, 25th in the NFL an behind two of the three Cleveland quarterbacks. Part of this reason could be because of T.Y. Hilton not being 100% and missing a game.
Better to back Luck at home: Won 20-5 SU (17-7-1 ATS) at home compared to; 14-12 SU on road (14-12 ATS)
Colts finished 4-1 SU, but did so playing the 30[SUP]th[/SUP] weakest schedule in that span.
Colts finished season 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the league in offensive yards/game (+406). However, over the last 5 games of the season, they dropped to 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league (+346.8).
Colts offensive line is thin, but they have done a decent job of protecting Luck (allowing 1.8 sacks per game/L5) – no change from the overall season.
Colts rush D allowing 122 ypg L5 (league avg 112). Pass defense 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best in the league over L5, allowing only 186 yards/game.
Conclusion: Raw PR numbers over L5 have the Colts -5.5. L8 numbers have Colts -7.5. From a situational and X and O standpoint, the Colts come out on top as well. With no A.J. Green, the Colts can play 8 or 9 in the box (depending on the formation). Vonta Davis can lock up Sanu, and now Jermaine Gresham is out. As the the targets keep dropping for Dalton, the Colts can focus more on the run. I think the Colts offense is going to have a good game with a healthy T.Y. back, and playing at home, where Luck is much better. I played the COLTS -3 for (1.25) and would play them up to -4.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Bones....Gl today and through the playoffs.

 

[HUNT]

gl my man

 

[bones]

THANK YOU:claphands: