Wildcard Weekend Plays...

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Record goes here.

Had a better season than last year but still not running like my usual self.

League is more roulette now than ever, just look at this week's lines.

All solid trends are virtually dead.

First time since 1990 that 3 or more teams open up the playoffs as away chalk.

Hate what Goodell has done to the league, it's for the fantasy nerds not the gamblers.

If my old man was around to see what it's become he'd literally shit himself.

Gonna open this round up like a schmuck.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans


The play...

Chiefs ML -150 (3 to win 2)

Was debating laying the 3 all day, was lay or stay away but the ML got cheap enough I had to bite.

I know in the WC round that the points really matter (if the fav wins - they cover, if not they generally lose straight-up).

- I put up the numbers in the discussion thread.

KC are the better team and they're facing a career back-up in Hoyer but they have Fat Andy calling the X's and O's.

By my numbers KC wins by 6+ but in a real world Fat Ass Andy does enough to win by a safety or pushes.

The always reliable ELO has this spread right on the number at 3.

Have a play brewing for the late game with my fav play of Wildcard weekend going off on Sunday.

:popcorn:
 
Chiefs SOS > Texans SOS.

Chiefs PR > Texans PR.

By my numbers, have KC as a 4.5 favorite.

-150 for a SU win is blasphemy, imo. Scary stuff.
 
QB's making their first playoff start are 11-23 ATS since 2002.

This weekend we have 3.

Road faves that open at -3 on WCW are 6-1 SU (5-0-1 ATS).
 
agree emkee and playing ML here or nothing...waiting to see if gets any cheaper - bol in the playoffs bud
 
GL Emkee....agree ML was the way to go. Books less likely to move off the 3 due to the public flooding of money this time of year. My power rating has this one a PK'em. Looking for the ML number I want, but not easy to find....yet....GL.
 
Thanks KJ.

Imo, it's 'squarer' to take the home dog's than the road fave's.

They could have easily made AJ a pick vs Ben, line set so it's just enough for folks to question a Steez play - rather than simply play it.
 
adding...

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals


The play...

Bengals +2.5 (1 unit)

:popcorn:
 
Small play on the Bungles, AJ the best of the 'rookie' QB's imo.

Steez playing their 3rd straight road game, always a potential fade spot.

Teams 1-4 SU if playing away in WWC off back to back road games.

This is the best chance for Cincy to shake that playoff Mouse.

Do hate that Cincy has become a sexy play though. If Vegas got me, so be it.
 
Thanks KJ.

Imo, it's 'squarer' to take the home dog's than the road fave's.

They could have easily made AJ a pick vs Ben, line set so it's just enough for folks to question a Steez play - rather than simply play it.

Should have paid attention to my own advice. Took too long to make a play, classic think long - think wrong.
 
adding...

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

The play...

Seahawks -4 (1 unit)

Greek still holding a 4 along with a few other joints. Going small for now, may add to it.

Expect the spread to possibly get some resistance closer to kick-off.

Need to really see how bad the conditions are gonna be.

By my ratings, this is a game the Hags dictate from the outset.

Teddy will need to make some plays to win this game and I just can't see him doing so.

Teams riding 3+ regular season win and ATS streaks into the playoffs are 2-7-1 ATS (0-5-1 ATS in the Wildcard round).

:popcorn:
 
Got in on the Hags live won't put it in the record. The ever reliable Elo spread was at Hags -1, crazy.

adding...

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

The play...

Packers ML +100 (3 units)

Better SOS (Packers #9, Skins #24), better QB.

Skins on a 4-game win + ATS streak, never good.

Teams who won 4 or less games the previous season and are playing in a playoff game the the following season are 2-15 SU (1-16 ATS).

Was gonna be bigger but will see if I add at halftime.

:popcorn:
 
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