Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
God help me, I’m betting Wildcard Weekend.
How have I done this year? Mind your business is how I’ve done this year. OK, fine, I only really bet the last two months of the season. And, sadly, I’ve mostly treaded water. Basically because I can’t help myself from throwing out one too many teasers on the weekend. But I’m not betting a ton and you’re not my mother so stop judging me already.
Anyway, speaking of teasers …
Bills -1/Pittsburgh PK teaser
I will have a couple of teasers this weekend, and this one seems super square, but I’m in. Full disclosure, I also bet Pittsburgh at -4 before the Covid news which really sucks for the Browns. This is the Kelly Holcomb revenge game and now the Browns won’t even have their HC. Which you might think, ‘Engh, whatever,’ but the problem is Stefanski is directly involved in the play calling. So now this is a problem. They’re also missing a pro-bowl OL who has played all year and they’ll be getting a rested Steeler team.
Before the Covid news, I was also going to be on the over in Pittsburgh because the Steez can’t run the ball and because the Browns can. I also think you’re going to see them dare Baker to beat them through the air and once the Browns get down like 13-3 Baker’s going to start flinging the ball all over the place. I don’t see him game-managing his way to a loss. I think if they’re down big enough he’ll just start throwing. But now without the HC I worry they just try to grind it out. So I’m probably off the total, I’ll just take the Steez to get the win.
In Buffalo, I’ve liked Indy a lot this year and won with them. Problem here is, to me this is a bad matchup for Indy. First, they lost kind of their main dude on the OL in Costanzo. Second, this game is on the road. And so now you have 40 year old Phillip Rivers in the cold—and Buffalo is letting in a handful of fans for the first time. Those fans won’t be loud enough to affect the play calling, but they’ll absolutely give the Bills some extra motivation. I like the Bills and Steez to win and play each other again next week where I kind of expect the same result as we got the last time they played.
Seattle minus … 3?
The Seabags are another team that I think wins. It’s probably fine to lay the 3.5, although their offense has looked really shaky lately—and the number keeps coming down so maybe buy it down. Thing is, I think this game will likely look a lot like the first 45 minutes of Seattle’s game last week vs. the Niners. And by that I mean low-scoring dogshit.
But I think Seattle wins here. Maybe 20-6 or 23-13. Something like that.
Washington +8 and the under
Matchups, matchups, matchups. To me, this is great matchup for Washington FC (which is really what they should have called themselves, btw). But their team is run by a front office that’s a cesspool of pimpery so what can ya do. Here’s the problem for TB. Brady at night, in the cold, not great. Second, Brady is bad when you can get pressure on him, especially with just your front four. That’s literally the best thing Washington does. The reason Jalen Hurts could make Washington look bad last week is because of his mobility. That’s not what Brady does.
The one thing that concerns me here is the statement earlier in the week by Rivera that Smith’s calf isn’t great so they have to think about rotating QBs. Rotating to whom exactly? Taylor Heinicke? Sweet. Their defense has to know it is the only thing that gives them a shot in this game, I see points as a premium and I’ll take the dog.
Oh also, a stat if you’re into those kind of things. There have only been a handful of teams who are 8-8 or worse in the playoffs in the last 10 years, but they are 8-0 ATS. Not a big sample size, but there you go.
Speaking of stats, though, I think this year may be an outlier for Wild Card Weekend. By which I mean that normally, WCW is great for dogs. And while I do think there’s a case to be made for a few dogs this weekend, you have to remember, this year’s playoff format is different.
You are going to get different matchups this weekend with only one bye vs. a normal year with two. So while there are a ton of trends out there about this weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be somewhat off. Which is a way of me saying, I think a lot of ML favorites win this weekend.
In New Orleans, I would be tempted to take the points (that same 8-8 stat from above applies here, btw) although I do think the Saints win and, full-disclosure, I have them in a teaser from earlier in the week before this line moved up to protect people from doing just that.
In Tenny, I liked the 4/3.5 but now those are gone so I may not bet this. Or I may just take a small piece of Tenny on the ML. To me, this is one of those situations where a team simply matches up well and knows how to play another team. The problem is, you have a double revenge situation for Baltimore—and the last time these teams played I was on Tenny because Balty was missing Campbell and Williams on their DL. Literally the two guys who are there to stop the one thing Tenny does better than anyone else in the league were out. Now they’re back.
I’ve heard people say this is a game that’s going to be like Baltimore/Cleveland, where neither team stops anybody. I’m not sure that’s true. Tenny knows the way to keep Jackson under control (make him throw outside the numbers) and they’re going to try to run the ball. So as scary as it is, I may have to take a shot on the under.
Anyway, long thread. Kudos to those who read the whole thing. Have a profitable weekend and don’t try to overthrow the government no matter what Ted Cruz says. Look, it's 2021, you honestly shouldn't be listening to that asshole anyway.
How have I done this year? Mind your business is how I’ve done this year. OK, fine, I only really bet the last two months of the season. And, sadly, I’ve mostly treaded water. Basically because I can’t help myself from throwing out one too many teasers on the weekend. But I’m not betting a ton and you’re not my mother so stop judging me already.
Anyway, speaking of teasers …
Bills -1/Pittsburgh PK teaser
I will have a couple of teasers this weekend, and this one seems super square, but I’m in. Full disclosure, I also bet Pittsburgh at -4 before the Covid news which really sucks for the Browns. This is the Kelly Holcomb revenge game and now the Browns won’t even have their HC. Which you might think, ‘Engh, whatever,’ but the problem is Stefanski is directly involved in the play calling. So now this is a problem. They’re also missing a pro-bowl OL who has played all year and they’ll be getting a rested Steeler team.
Before the Covid news, I was also going to be on the over in Pittsburgh because the Steez can’t run the ball and because the Browns can. I also think you’re going to see them dare Baker to beat them through the air and once the Browns get down like 13-3 Baker’s going to start flinging the ball all over the place. I don’t see him game-managing his way to a loss. I think if they’re down big enough he’ll just start throwing. But now without the HC I worry they just try to grind it out. So I’m probably off the total, I’ll just take the Steez to get the win.
In Buffalo, I’ve liked Indy a lot this year and won with them. Problem here is, to me this is a bad matchup for Indy. First, they lost kind of their main dude on the OL in Costanzo. Second, this game is on the road. And so now you have 40 year old Phillip Rivers in the cold—and Buffalo is letting in a handful of fans for the first time. Those fans won’t be loud enough to affect the play calling, but they’ll absolutely give the Bills some extra motivation. I like the Bills and Steez to win and play each other again next week where I kind of expect the same result as we got the last time they played.
Seattle minus … 3?
The Seabags are another team that I think wins. It’s probably fine to lay the 3.5, although their offense has looked really shaky lately—and the number keeps coming down so maybe buy it down. Thing is, I think this game will likely look a lot like the first 45 minutes of Seattle’s game last week vs. the Niners. And by that I mean low-scoring dogshit.
But I think Seattle wins here. Maybe 20-6 or 23-13. Something like that.
Washington +8 and the under
Matchups, matchups, matchups. To me, this is great matchup for Washington FC (which is really what they should have called themselves, btw). But their team is run by a front office that’s a cesspool of pimpery so what can ya do. Here’s the problem for TB. Brady at night, in the cold, not great. Second, Brady is bad when you can get pressure on him, especially with just your front four. That’s literally the best thing Washington does. The reason Jalen Hurts could make Washington look bad last week is because of his mobility. That’s not what Brady does.
The one thing that concerns me here is the statement earlier in the week by Rivera that Smith’s calf isn’t great so they have to think about rotating QBs. Rotating to whom exactly? Taylor Heinicke? Sweet. Their defense has to know it is the only thing that gives them a shot in this game, I see points as a premium and I’ll take the dog.
Oh also, a stat if you’re into those kind of things. There have only been a handful of teams who are 8-8 or worse in the playoffs in the last 10 years, but they are 8-0 ATS. Not a big sample size, but there you go.
Speaking of stats, though, I think this year may be an outlier for Wild Card Weekend. By which I mean that normally, WCW is great for dogs. And while I do think there’s a case to be made for a few dogs this weekend, you have to remember, this year’s playoff format is different.
You are going to get different matchups this weekend with only one bye vs. a normal year with two. So while there are a ton of trends out there about this weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be somewhat off. Which is a way of me saying, I think a lot of ML favorites win this weekend.
In New Orleans, I would be tempted to take the points (that same 8-8 stat from above applies here, btw) although I do think the Saints win and, full-disclosure, I have them in a teaser from earlier in the week before this line moved up to protect people from doing just that.
In Tenny, I liked the 4/3.5 but now those are gone so I may not bet this. Or I may just take a small piece of Tenny on the ML. To me, this is one of those situations where a team simply matches up well and knows how to play another team. The problem is, you have a double revenge situation for Baltimore—and the last time these teams played I was on Tenny because Balty was missing Campbell and Williams on their DL. Literally the two guys who are there to stop the one thing Tenny does better than anyone else in the league were out. Now they’re back.
I’ve heard people say this is a game that’s going to be like Baltimore/Cleveland, where neither team stops anybody. I’m not sure that’s true. Tenny knows the way to keep Jackson under control (make him throw outside the numbers) and they’re going to try to run the ball. So as scary as it is, I may have to take a shot on the under.
Anyway, long thread. Kudos to those who read the whole thing. Have a profitable weekend and don’t try to overthrow the government no matter what Ted Cruz says. Look, it's 2021, you honestly shouldn't be listening to that asshole anyway.
