CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
OK fellas. Time for the playoffs. Four road favorites as we start the journey toward Tampa. Never happened as far as I can remember.
I do note reading some astonishing stat about how the team with the better record has had an incredible SU record against the other team in the first round. Advantage, Indy, if that's the case.
I'll list these in order of how much I like them:
Miami +3.5 -115, and ML +164 vs Baltimore
A lot of wiseguys made a lot of money this season with the Ravens. Some of that started with the first trip to Miami, when they came out a 27-13 winner catching 3 points.
That loss was the turning point in the season for the Dolphins - they fell to 2-4 with the loss and the "Wildcat" offense was exposed as being gimmicky in that one. The Fins only ran it five times, and gained a meager four yards.
I just watched a replay of this game the other night, and a few things stood out to me.
1 - Baltimore was the first team to effectively stop the Wildcat by blitzing relentlessly.
2 - The Raven defense made their expected big play - a 45-yard INT for six by Suggs to give Baltimore the lead for good in the second quarter.
3 - The Ravens surprised Miami by going no-huddle for the first time all year. They ran their offense at an up-tempo pace that had not been seen out of a Baltimore team, well... EVER... and it was Flacco's coming out party
Solutions:
1 - I saw last week what the Wildcat is capable of, (at least one play I had not seen before where Jets guys were lost) and no matter all of the other copycat teams, the Miami OC is still the one who created it and is ahead of the curve... they've got shit they can run this week that Baltimore won't be ready for.
2 - The Fins don't usually beat themselves. They've won 9 of 10 since the loss to the Ravens the first time. Vet QB Pennington has only 7 picks all year. Hopefully Miami saw some problems that Baltimore exposed and made adjustments.
3 - The Ravens still are starting a rookie at QB and I expect Miami to be far more prepared defensively for whatever Baltimore has for them this time.
It's tough to beat a team twice in one year. It's awfully tough to beat them at their home field. And this is an 11-win team you're trying to beat twice in Miami.
I'll stick with the Fish on the field here. Great spot to try to beat a rookie QB in his playoff debut....
Prediction: Miami 17, Baltimore 13
The play: Miami +3.5 -115 and ML +164 for a combined big bet (would recommend half and half).
2. Arizona +123 Moneyline vs. Atlanta
Obviously, this price no longer exists. I almost like this game as much as I like Miami. I would recommend a play on Arizona at even money or better.
Yes, this goes against the "better record SU" stat I was referring to earlier, but the Cardinals got a much-needed confidence-building win, albeit against Seattle, last week. Detractors will point to the abysmal record, weak schedule and embarrassing eggs laid in earlier "big games"... But there is an asterisk involved - FIVE of the seven losses occurred in the Eastern time zone (all but one, I believe was a 1:00 Eastern kick, which we all know how troublesome those were for western teams). And those were good football teams, by and large, that beat Arizona.
This game will be played in the desert pseudo-dome, where they've had a home-field advantage since it opened three years ago that was nonexistent beforehand. The Cards are 6-3 as a home dog SU since moving to Glendale - though that stat loses relevance now that the line has moved to a virtual pick.
The key here is the homefield advantage and the quarterback position. Atlanta backers will say that their QB makes fewer mistakes, has a better defense and that's the formula for success in the playoffs. I say, maybe, but how many playoff games has Matt Ryan played in? I expect the wily Cardinal defense to throw some new wrinkles that have previously not been shown. Remember, Arizona has been prepping for this day for about two months, when it was evident that it was virtually a cinch to clinch the West and not get a bye. There has been stuff added to its arsenal on both sides that no team has seen yet.
Meanwhile, Kurt Warner is a veteran, MVP-winning and Super Bowl winning quarterback. Big, veteran wideouts Boldin and Fitzgerald should be able to exploit holes in the Falcon secondary. Edgerrin James shot off his dicksucker this week about not coming back, but he's a veteran and should show up to play on Saturday. He ran for 100 for the first time all season last week and has fresh legs that should be there for showing off along with stud rookie RB Hightower.
Prediction: Arizona 31, Atlanta 20
The play: Arizona ML for a big bet.
3. Indianapolis +1 vs Diego.
Admittedly, there is a big dropoff for me when talking about the first two games, and the last two.
These are the two best teams in the AFC right now, in my opinion. The winner will certainly pose a dangerous threat going forward to Tennessee. Indy has won nine straight, while Diego has won four in a row and got some help from the stumbling Broncos to slide into the postseason.
This is the fourth meeting since last season. Injuries are a factor on both sides, but the key is that Gates is prolly a GTD, and LT is banged up pretty good as well, whereas Indy welcomes back a healthy Bob Sanders (think Super Bowl two years ago when he was banged up much of the year before coming back with a beastly performance in the playoffs). Can Indy stop the run? That will key, as Sproles emerged again last week and is in the way of doing his best Jerry Maguire "Show Me The Money" impersonation in this, his contract year.
The Chargers aren't quite the same defense that they were last year. They've adjusted well lately, but without stud LB Shawne Merriman, you're just missing a key cog that's irreplaceable. MVP Manning should be able to carve up the defense just enough, despite the perceived lack of a running game (I predict you'll be surprised that Indy will be able to establish the run a little tonight). Indy has a seemingly inbred ability to win close games. They've got SIX wins by four or fewer points, including road wins against Minnesota, Pittsburgh and San Diego. This should be a sweatbox, but I'll ride with Manning in this spot.
Prediction: Indianapolis 30, San Diego 24
The play: Indy ML small
4. Minnesota +3 even vs. Philly
This was my least favorite of the four going in, though I made the game a pick.
My initial thoughts: Going into the season, I rated Tavaras Jackson as the 32nd and worst starting QB in all of the Niffel. I liked Minny's run-stopping defense, and their stud RB out of Oklahoma, as well as the backup kid from Toledo. The receivers, while not great by any imagination, are capable, especially Rice.
I thought inserting Jackson back into the lineup when Gus got hurt was the best thing that Childress could have done. Putting it nicely, Frerotte should be walking up the 18th fairway. He's finished and is unable to lead any team to a playoff win. On the other hand, I thought Jackson's progress when coming back (week 16 hiccups aside, when AP also fumbled a couple of times) was solid. It seemed to me that the game slowed down for him and he was able to make better reads and decisions. He has enough talent to make plays; it's all about NOT making mistakes in this spot.
With Philly coming off their "Super Bowl" thrashing of Dallas last week; it will be tough for them to match that emotion this time out once again. Remember, they had about an 8-10 percent chance of even MAKING the playoffs going into last Sunday morning... if it was even THAT high. Another advantage to Minnesota.
A couple of things keep me off this game:
Andy Reid has coached in 14 playoff games - he's never gotten beat in the first game of any given year. Wow. Nice stat.
That stat, coupled with Jackson still not having any playoff experience, has tempered my opinion on Minny. I see this game being remarkably close - and with David Akers being the superior kicker, this one could well come down to a late swing of his leg.
Prediction: Philadephia 20, Minnesota 19.
The play: Minny +3 for a very small bet.
GL this weekend!!!
:cheers:
I do note reading some astonishing stat about how the team with the better record has had an incredible SU record against the other team in the first round. Advantage, Indy, if that's the case.
I'll list these in order of how much I like them:
Miami +3.5 -115, and ML +164 vs Baltimore
A lot of wiseguys made a lot of money this season with the Ravens. Some of that started with the first trip to Miami, when they came out a 27-13 winner catching 3 points.
That loss was the turning point in the season for the Dolphins - they fell to 2-4 with the loss and the "Wildcat" offense was exposed as being gimmicky in that one. The Fins only ran it five times, and gained a meager four yards.
I just watched a replay of this game the other night, and a few things stood out to me.
1 - Baltimore was the first team to effectively stop the Wildcat by blitzing relentlessly.
2 - The Raven defense made their expected big play - a 45-yard INT for six by Suggs to give Baltimore the lead for good in the second quarter.
3 - The Ravens surprised Miami by going no-huddle for the first time all year. They ran their offense at an up-tempo pace that had not been seen out of a Baltimore team, well... EVER... and it was Flacco's coming out party
Solutions:
1 - I saw last week what the Wildcat is capable of, (at least one play I had not seen before where Jets guys were lost) and no matter all of the other copycat teams, the Miami OC is still the one who created it and is ahead of the curve... they've got shit they can run this week that Baltimore won't be ready for.
2 - The Fins don't usually beat themselves. They've won 9 of 10 since the loss to the Ravens the first time. Vet QB Pennington has only 7 picks all year. Hopefully Miami saw some problems that Baltimore exposed and made adjustments.
3 - The Ravens still are starting a rookie at QB and I expect Miami to be far more prepared defensively for whatever Baltimore has for them this time.
It's tough to beat a team twice in one year. It's awfully tough to beat them at their home field. And this is an 11-win team you're trying to beat twice in Miami.
I'll stick with the Fish on the field here. Great spot to try to beat a rookie QB in his playoff debut....
Prediction: Miami 17, Baltimore 13
The play: Miami +3.5 -115 and ML +164 for a combined big bet (would recommend half and half).
2. Arizona +123 Moneyline vs. Atlanta
Obviously, this price no longer exists. I almost like this game as much as I like Miami. I would recommend a play on Arizona at even money or better.
Yes, this goes against the "better record SU" stat I was referring to earlier, but the Cardinals got a much-needed confidence-building win, albeit against Seattle, last week. Detractors will point to the abysmal record, weak schedule and embarrassing eggs laid in earlier "big games"... But there is an asterisk involved - FIVE of the seven losses occurred in the Eastern time zone (all but one, I believe was a 1:00 Eastern kick, which we all know how troublesome those were for western teams). And those were good football teams, by and large, that beat Arizona.
This game will be played in the desert pseudo-dome, where they've had a home-field advantage since it opened three years ago that was nonexistent beforehand. The Cards are 6-3 as a home dog SU since moving to Glendale - though that stat loses relevance now that the line has moved to a virtual pick.
The key here is the homefield advantage and the quarterback position. Atlanta backers will say that their QB makes fewer mistakes, has a better defense and that's the formula for success in the playoffs. I say, maybe, but how many playoff games has Matt Ryan played in? I expect the wily Cardinal defense to throw some new wrinkles that have previously not been shown. Remember, Arizona has been prepping for this day for about two months, when it was evident that it was virtually a cinch to clinch the West and not get a bye. There has been stuff added to its arsenal on both sides that no team has seen yet.
Meanwhile, Kurt Warner is a veteran, MVP-winning and Super Bowl winning quarterback. Big, veteran wideouts Boldin and Fitzgerald should be able to exploit holes in the Falcon secondary. Edgerrin James shot off his dicksucker this week about not coming back, but he's a veteran and should show up to play on Saturday. He ran for 100 for the first time all season last week and has fresh legs that should be there for showing off along with stud rookie RB Hightower.
Prediction: Arizona 31, Atlanta 20
The play: Arizona ML for a big bet.
3. Indianapolis +1 vs Diego.
Admittedly, there is a big dropoff for me when talking about the first two games, and the last two.
These are the two best teams in the AFC right now, in my opinion. The winner will certainly pose a dangerous threat going forward to Tennessee. Indy has won nine straight, while Diego has won four in a row and got some help from the stumbling Broncos to slide into the postseason.
This is the fourth meeting since last season. Injuries are a factor on both sides, but the key is that Gates is prolly a GTD, and LT is banged up pretty good as well, whereas Indy welcomes back a healthy Bob Sanders (think Super Bowl two years ago when he was banged up much of the year before coming back with a beastly performance in the playoffs). Can Indy stop the run? That will key, as Sproles emerged again last week and is in the way of doing his best Jerry Maguire "Show Me The Money" impersonation in this, his contract year.
The Chargers aren't quite the same defense that they were last year. They've adjusted well lately, but without stud LB Shawne Merriman, you're just missing a key cog that's irreplaceable. MVP Manning should be able to carve up the defense just enough, despite the perceived lack of a running game (I predict you'll be surprised that Indy will be able to establish the run a little tonight). Indy has a seemingly inbred ability to win close games. They've got SIX wins by four or fewer points, including road wins against Minnesota, Pittsburgh and San Diego. This should be a sweatbox, but I'll ride with Manning in this spot.
Prediction: Indianapolis 30, San Diego 24
The play: Indy ML small
4. Minnesota +3 even vs. Philly
This was my least favorite of the four going in, though I made the game a pick.
My initial thoughts: Going into the season, I rated Tavaras Jackson as the 32nd and worst starting QB in all of the Niffel. I liked Minny's run-stopping defense, and their stud RB out of Oklahoma, as well as the backup kid from Toledo. The receivers, while not great by any imagination, are capable, especially Rice.
I thought inserting Jackson back into the lineup when Gus got hurt was the best thing that Childress could have done. Putting it nicely, Frerotte should be walking up the 18th fairway. He's finished and is unable to lead any team to a playoff win. On the other hand, I thought Jackson's progress when coming back (week 16 hiccups aside, when AP also fumbled a couple of times) was solid. It seemed to me that the game slowed down for him and he was able to make better reads and decisions. He has enough talent to make plays; it's all about NOT making mistakes in this spot.
With Philly coming off their "Super Bowl" thrashing of Dallas last week; it will be tough for them to match that emotion this time out once again. Remember, they had about an 8-10 percent chance of even MAKING the playoffs going into last Sunday morning... if it was even THAT high. Another advantage to Minnesota.
A couple of things keep me off this game:
Andy Reid has coached in 14 playoff games - he's never gotten beat in the first game of any given year. Wow. Nice stat.
That stat, coupled with Jackson still not having any playoff experience, has tempered my opinion on Minny. I see this game being remarkably close - and with David Akers being the superior kicker, this one could well come down to a late swing of his leg.
Prediction: Philadephia 20, Minnesota 19.
The play: Minny +3 for a very small bet.
GL this weekend!!!
:cheers:
