Why the Spurs will cover game 5...

IvyinBarondise

Pretty much a regular
If you want to put any legitimate thought into the concept that every game is a double digit win for the Spurs since the Dallas series, then you don't mind laying a few points @ home. Ibaka's presence certainly does allow OKC to get back to their game. Everybody gets to play their own positions again and Durant isn't run ragged and OKC stays out of foul trouble. That being said, Ibaka isn't a 30 point swing kinda guy lol. This series is gonna go in waves and Spurs have proven many many things of the length of the Pop/Duncan Era. One of them is, they generally don't allow themselves to lose twice in a row in the same fashion. Pop smartly pulled his aging stars in the middle of the third and kept them off the floor only down 12 with PLENTY of time left b/c he understands the makeup of this series. OKC role players are incredibly different players offensively away from OKC. Jackson is idk, but guys like Lamb (throw away garbage time), Adams, Perkins, and Seph (who might have to get some court time in this one) aren't gonna beat SAS in game 5. Westbrook and Durant are the only guys capable of coming out of SAS with a steal but the issue is...there have been several times in this series and in the playoffs where Durant has looked a little gassed, late in the second half. He's been playing tons of HARD minutes recently and isn't going to be able to play as much in game 5. If Brooks makes the mistake of playing him w/o a few extra minutes rest, he's gonna be much less effective in the later minutes in the 4th when they're gonna need him if they can steal a game. Westbrook just might be superman but I gotta believe 46 minutes was a mistake. It's incredibly tough to repeat those kinda performances although I don't REALLY put it passed him. Parker and Duncan were both pretty efficient in game 4 and they're fresh and ready to put in a strong effort @ home in game 5. Green and Ginobli are both going to be asked to play longer minutes and spread the floor and it just seems that the Spurs hit more 3s @ home these days. Leonard is a good body to insure what I'm saying about Durant's fatigue factor and Ibaka's offense is the only x factor in my opinion. I think the extra 5 minutes that we see Durant off the floor really opens up significant value for SAS to open up and extend a lead in this one...It would take the same kinda effort that Brook and Durant gave in game 4 and I just don't buy into the math in a repeat of that on the road in a must-win for SAS. SAS has the experience and confidence to blow off the last two games, they have the rest and the home court going for them. They have a large historical edge going against Westbrook and Durant repeating their performance...and their bench will be much more productive tomorrow night IMO as well. I also expect the NBA to give a few more calls to SAS as there is a bunch of criticism as to the majority of 50/50 calls going OKCs way, but that's to be expected @ home too so nothing out of the ordinary. It's the Spurs turn now, they tend to not let me down in these situations. BOL to anyone who takes this advice, I'm obviously biased but I do believe game 4 wasn't a complete negative for SAS in how it played out and that really does provide some value for SAS backers.

BTW, SAS bench players ALSO play much better at home and Joseph and Mills are both primed for productive bench minutes and sometimes it's just those few extra good possessions that make the difference. It's a team vs a duo...may the best concept win.
 
I think you're right about SA being the play but I totally disagree with you about Pop smartly pulling his aging stars and keeping them on the bench. I don't have a problem with him pulling them, I do have a problem with him not putting them back in. The bench did an admiral job getting them back in, but you can't expect them to play without any rest the rest of the way. When they got them to 10, put the starters in and give them a chance to complete the comeback.

No doubt Pop is a hall of fame coach, but he makes mistakes too. This was not a time to send a message to your veteran team, with a couple future HOFs. He's hard headed. This is the western conference finals ffs. By keeping the bench in, he threw up the white flag and accepted the L instead of trying to win it. Pop makes mistakes too. The finals loss last year against the Heat was his fault. He shouldn't have pulled Duncan for Diaw on that pivotal possession where Allen hit the 3. And he shouldn't have pulled Parker in the OT. He makes mistakes too!!!

And one last thing, they aren't playing back to back. They get a full day off to rest. The resting shit is bullshit IMO. He's been resting them the whole season, they're not tired.
 
Agree with cogenman about Pops. He is one hell of a coach, but sometimes he tricks himself.

Last year Finals...Duncan on bench on last two Miami offensive possessions....we all saw what happened.
 
Agree with cogenman about Pops. He is one hell of a coach, but sometimes he tricks himself.

Last year Finals...Duncan on bench on last two Miami offensive possessions....we all saw what happened.

The last two offensive possessions were a little brutal...hindsight is 20/20 as the spurs weren't getting crushed on the boards w/ duncan sat and pop was playing the odds. He wanted better FT shooters in there for the end of the game (Duncan had played a lot of minutes) and guys who could defend the perimeter. it was a crazy set of circumstances...

as far as last game...I think what's brilliant about Pop's thinking in game 4 was that he recognized the kind of game Westbrook and Durant were having. He calculated the chances of beating them by 10-12 with 9 minutes left on the road @ extraordinarily little to NONE. His bench was who was hot and there is very little delta in the overall production of westbrook and durant when they're playing like that based on who's guarding them. It was a very very polarizing move but if SAS blows OKC out in game 5...Pop is gonna be a god for that move, perhaps a goat if not.
 
Like the under 206.5 more than the Spurs. Still believe Spurs win it but gotta go 7 for them to do it.
 
That was a lot of words. Best of luck on your opinion. Concerned with how many people are so concerned with how many minutes guys who play basketball for a living play in a night. Furthermore add it's the Conference Finals and I have to think the motivation works.

I can honestly say I've never seen Russell Westbrook tired.

Spurs probably win by 20-30.
 
Thought the Vegas trip during WSOP was possibly poker lol.

I haven't seen Westbrook tired either. I was talking about Durant looking gassed before and possibly tired down the stretch if he gets no addtl. rest tonight. But if Westbrook was ever going to be tired...It would be now that's for sure. So many people are making a big deal about so many minutes for the two players that make up so much of the Thunder's offense because it didn't really seem warranted first of all. They were winning handily and didn't appear to need to be in at several points in the late third and fourth quarters. And secondly, it does take it's toll on any athlete this late in the season.

Several things that are extremely unlikely to happen two games in a row. 8 Steals for Durant/Westbrook. Almost 80 points. WELL over 80 minutes of time played. Lopsided FT's with incredible %s that should probably dip a little. Game four was a perfect game. If they find a way to repeat their absolute best in game 5, they can win. But they'll need just that. With that in mind, I feel Spurs are a very good bet.
 
The last two offensive possessions were a little brutal...hindsight is 20/20 as the spurs weren't getting crushed on the boards w/ duncan sat and pop was playing the odds. He wanted better FT shooters in there for the end of the game (Duncan had played a lot of minutes) and guys who could defend the perimeter. it was a crazy set of circumstances...

as far as last game...I think what's brilliant about Pop's thinking in game 4 was that he recognized the kind of game Westbrook and Durant were having. He calculated the chances of beating them by 10-12 with 9 minutes left on the road @ extraordinarily little to NONE. His bench was who was hot and there is very little delta in the overall production of westbrook and durant when they're playing like that based on who's guarding them. It was a very very polarizing move but if SAS blows OKC out in game 5...Pop is gonna be a god for that move, perhaps a goat if not.

What hindsight???

I saw that problem that moment he made that dumb decision and I'm sure I wasn't the only one. Pop saw Vogel losing a game by pulling Hibbert to the bench. Pop just got a three pointer off an offensive rebound from James. What more does he need to realize that Timmy needs to be on the floor.

Pop is amazing coach, but this was a huge mistake.

Thought the Vegas trip during WSOP was possibly poker lol.

I haven't seen Westbrook tired either. I was talking about Durant looking gassed before and possibly tired down the stretch if he gets no addtl. rest tonight. But if Westbrook was ever going to be tired...It would be now that's for sure. So many people are making a big deal about so many minutes for the two players that make up so much of the Thunder's offense because it didn't really seem warranted first of all. They were winning handily and didn't appear to need to be in at several points in the late third and fourth quarters. And secondly, it does take it's toll on any athlete this late in the season.

Several things that are extremely unlikely to happen two games in a row. 8 Steals for Durant/Westbrook. Almost 80 points. WELL over 80 minutes of time played. Lopsided FT's with incredible %s that should probably dip a little. Game four was a perfect game. If they find a way to repeat their absolute best in game 5, they can win. But they'll need just that. With that in mind, I feel Spurs are a very good bet.
No, if they repeat that performance, there are 99.99% that they will win, not "can win", but 'will win". But, Spurs problem is that even if Thunder will play 10% below their Game 4 performance and Spurs will play 10% above their Game 4 performance, Spurs will still lose.
They need to step up big time or hope for Thunder meltdown to win this one.
That's at least how I'm seeing it.
 
How does one jinx anything? I'm sure there are die hard OKC fans that have capped OKC as well...

I'm a responsible posted when it comes to games. I don't post often, but I believe in them when I do. I'm a fan, but I made the original post as a capper.
 
It was not Bonner starting the game either. It was not playing Duncan and Splitter at the same time. Completely opened up the game and took Ibaka out of the paint. Curious to see what adjustments OKC makes for Game 6. Also curious to see if Pop is committed to winning game six or "rests" his main guys and rolls the dice for a game seven. Should be fun to watch on Saturday.
 
I think Pop's just gonna play a cautioned aggressive game. He and his team knows how important it would be to win game 6 and end it there. OKC is incredible at home though so he's not gonna allow Duncan and Parker 70+ minutes in they're trailing by a decent score. If I was Brooks, I would tell my team to lay back and let SAS get and sustain a small lead throughout the first 3Qs. It's a sick gambit but if it's executed properly, you have HCA and two of the best players in the world in a close game late in the 4th quarter from which to fatigue SAS's Aged talent and to give them all the momentum they would need going into game 7.
 
Tell your team to let the opponent get and sustain a lead?

That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
 
Hey go ahead and outscore us for three quarters in a Game 6 semifinal....don't worry, we'll try to come back in the final quarter.
 
I think Pop's just gonna play a cautioned aggressive game. He and his team knows how important it would be to win game 6 and end it there. OKC is incredible at home though so he's not gonna allow Duncan and Parker 70+ minutes in they're trailing by a decent score. If I was Brooks, I would tell my team to lay back and let SAS get and sustain a small lead throughout the first 3Qs. It's a sick gambit but if it's executed properly, you have HCA and two of the best players in the world in a close game late in the 4th quarter from which to fatigue SAS's Aged talent and to give them all the momentum they would need going into game 7.

Even as dumb as Brooks is I doubt he would lend this type of advice to his team........nice call on gm 5.
 
It would be a desperate but calculating act from a desperate team. They have shown zero ability to compete in San Antonio. His stars look a little fstigued. Tell them to jog through 3q and try to remain down 1-5 points... Should be possible to do in OKC... The odds of them carrying out the win in the 4th there with his stars not having killed themselves through 3q and at home are very good. The odds that they compete in San Antonio the following contest are much greater. It's a tough needle to thread but a +ev move in my calculation.
 
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