Reasons Why the Heat Can Win the Eastern Conference Again
Jimmy Butler Will Be Healthy
Miami is a different team when Jimmy Butler is on the court.
With Butler, Miami has proven itself able to beat any other team.
Let’s take fellow Eastern Conference competitor Philadelphia, for example.
On January 12 and January 14, these teams played and Philadelphia won both games.
On May 13, the Heat and 76ers met again. This time, the Heat won 106-94.
The key difference was: on January 12 and 14, Butler did not play. But on May 13, Butler played.
New York was the next-highest seeded team that Miami has faced with Butler.
Butler participated in three games that the Heat played against the Knicks. Miami won all three games.
Great on Offense
Butler is crucial because of the boost that he gives Miami on the offensive end of the court.
Statistically speaking, he leads the team with 21.5 points per game and 7.1 assists per game.
On offense, the Heat like to isolate him and they love to set a screen to help him initiate offense as the ball-handler.
His favorite thing to do is to drive inside. With his combination of ball-handling, momentum, physical strength, and body control, he is difficult to stop from driving to and finishing at the basket.
His physical tool set at the basket allows him to convert 47.7 percent of his field goal attempts when driving.
When driving inside, he also maintains awareness of his surroundings in order to locate teammates in more favorable scoring positions.
So in addition to scoring efficiently, he owns a 12 percent assist rate with a negligible turnover rate when driving inside.
Top-Level On Defense
Butler also repeatedly proves himself to be one of the NBA’s best defenders.
This season, he leads the Heat with 2.1 steals per game. in his career, he has earned a spot on the NBA All-Defensive Second Team four times.
He owns a strong defensive rating because he is difficult to score on. HIs defensive field goal percentage is better than Defensive Player of the Year candidate Ben Simmons, for example.
Stout especially on the perimeter, he will make plays by drawing charges or disrupting passing lanes. In accruing steals, he helps turn defense into offense.
Team Defense
Earlier in the year, Miami struggled defensively.
One reason for its turnaround was its uptick in rate of turnovers forced.
Currently, Miami induces its opponents to incur the fifth most turnovers per game.
A significant reason for this particular improvement is Butler’s activity on defense.
I talked about how Butler has helped Miami beat fellow Eastern Conference competitor New York repeatedly.
Butler was not active when the Heat played either the Nets or the Bucks.
But, especially with Butler healthy, defense is the primary way in which the Heat distinguish themselves competitively and qualitatively from both of those teams.
Whereas the Nets rank 21st in scoring defense and the Bucks rank 22nd, Miami ranks fifth in the category.
Both the Nets and Bucks allow over six points per game more than the Heat do.
Versatility
Miami’s defense is unique for the versatility of its players.
For example, center Bam Adebayo is mobile and athletic enough to switch on ball screens.
Given his physical skill set, he ranks in the 90th percentile when defending the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
This sort of versatility allows Miami to employ successfully a variety of ball-screen coverages.
Sometimes the Heat will play conservatively. Other times, they will blitz the opposing screen and then rotate players.
Their variety makes them less predictable, harder to prepare for, and harder to figure out.
Adebayo exemplifies the individual quality of Heat defenders with Butler being another example.
The former’s ability on defense is apparent when he guards perennial MVP candidate Giannis.
On defense, Adebayo is able to stay in front of Giannis in order to prevent him from driving to the basket as he wants to do.
With guys like Adebayo, Miami is one of the best teams at limiting opposing field goal attempts inside the arc where the Heat do not allow anything easy.
Team Offense
Both Brooklyn and Milwaukee rank in the bottom 10 in limiting opposing three-pointers made per game.
Milwaukee does share Miami’s proclivity for limiting opponents within five feet of the basket.
But the Buck perimeter defense is uniquely awful partly because of its conservative ball-screen coverage principles and its perpetual struggle to improve upon those principles.
Ranking last in limiting opposing three-pointers made per game, Milwaukee has a porous perimeter defense that the Heat can exploit.
For Miami, Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic convert over 36 percent of their three-point attempts while demonstrating the ability to create their own shot.
Duncan Robinson is more of a catch-and-shoot guy. He’ll likely come off a screen and he converts 40.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
These guys can help the Heat thrive from beyond the arc especially against Milwaukee, but also against the Nets, whose interior defense they can dissect with the likes of Butler.
The Verdict
Miami possesses the individual x-factor in Jimmy Butler, the high-ranking defense, the match-up advantages, and the proven ability to beat top teams.
Best Bet: Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat at +1200 with Bovada
Jimmy Butler Will Be Healthy
Miami is a different team when Jimmy Butler is on the court.
With Butler, Miami has proven itself able to beat any other team.
Let’s take fellow Eastern Conference competitor Philadelphia, for example.
On January 12 and January 14, these teams played and Philadelphia won both games.
On May 13, the Heat and 76ers met again. This time, the Heat won 106-94.
The key difference was: on January 12 and 14, Butler did not play. But on May 13, Butler played.
New York was the next-highest seeded team that Miami has faced with Butler.
Butler participated in three games that the Heat played against the Knicks. Miami won all three games.
Great on Offense
Butler is crucial because of the boost that he gives Miami on the offensive end of the court.
Statistically speaking, he leads the team with 21.5 points per game and 7.1 assists per game.
On offense, the Heat like to isolate him and they love to set a screen to help him initiate offense as the ball-handler.
His favorite thing to do is to drive inside. With his combination of ball-handling, momentum, physical strength, and body control, he is difficult to stop from driving to and finishing at the basket.
His physical tool set at the basket allows him to convert 47.7 percent of his field goal attempts when driving.
When driving inside, he also maintains awareness of his surroundings in order to locate teammates in more favorable scoring positions.
So in addition to scoring efficiently, he owns a 12 percent assist rate with a negligible turnover rate when driving inside.
Top-Level On Defense
Butler also repeatedly proves himself to be one of the NBA’s best defenders.
This season, he leads the Heat with 2.1 steals per game. in his career, he has earned a spot on the NBA All-Defensive Second Team four times.
He owns a strong defensive rating because he is difficult to score on. HIs defensive field goal percentage is better than Defensive Player of the Year candidate Ben Simmons, for example.
Stout especially on the perimeter, he will make plays by drawing charges or disrupting passing lanes. In accruing steals, he helps turn defense into offense.
Team Defense
Earlier in the year, Miami struggled defensively.
One reason for its turnaround was its uptick in rate of turnovers forced.
Currently, Miami induces its opponents to incur the fifth most turnovers per game.
A significant reason for this particular improvement is Butler’s activity on defense.
I talked about how Butler has helped Miami beat fellow Eastern Conference competitor New York repeatedly.
Butler was not active when the Heat played either the Nets or the Bucks.
But, especially with Butler healthy, defense is the primary way in which the Heat distinguish themselves competitively and qualitatively from both of those teams.
Whereas the Nets rank 21st in scoring defense and the Bucks rank 22nd, Miami ranks fifth in the category.
Both the Nets and Bucks allow over six points per game more than the Heat do.
Versatility
Miami’s defense is unique for the versatility of its players.
For example, center Bam Adebayo is mobile and athletic enough to switch on ball screens.
Given his physical skill set, he ranks in the 90th percentile when defending the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
This sort of versatility allows Miami to employ successfully a variety of ball-screen coverages.
Sometimes the Heat will play conservatively. Other times, they will blitz the opposing screen and then rotate players.
Their variety makes them less predictable, harder to prepare for, and harder to figure out.
Adebayo exemplifies the individual quality of Heat defenders with Butler being another example.
The former’s ability on defense is apparent when he guards perennial MVP candidate Giannis.
On defense, Adebayo is able to stay in front of Giannis in order to prevent him from driving to the basket as he wants to do.
With guys like Adebayo, Miami is one of the best teams at limiting opposing field goal attempts inside the arc where the Heat do not allow anything easy.
Team Offense
Both Brooklyn and Milwaukee rank in the bottom 10 in limiting opposing three-pointers made per game.
Milwaukee does share Miami’s proclivity for limiting opponents within five feet of the basket.
But the Buck perimeter defense is uniquely awful partly because of its conservative ball-screen coverage principles and its perpetual struggle to improve upon those principles.
Ranking last in limiting opposing three-pointers made per game, Milwaukee has a porous perimeter defense that the Heat can exploit.
For Miami, Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic convert over 36 percent of their three-point attempts while demonstrating the ability to create their own shot.
Duncan Robinson is more of a catch-and-shoot guy. He’ll likely come off a screen and he converts 40.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
These guys can help the Heat thrive from beyond the arc especially against Milwaukee, but also against the Nets, whose interior defense they can dissect with the likes of Butler.
The Verdict
Miami possesses the individual x-factor in Jimmy Butler, the high-ranking defense, the match-up advantages, and the proven ability to beat top teams.
Best Bet: Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat at +1200 with Bovada
