White Sox vs. Twins: Best MLB Bets
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Jose Berrios’ Major Trend
One key factor is deciding whether Minnesota starter Jose Berrios (2-3, 4.75 ERA) performs well in a game. This key factor is the quality of the opposing lineup’s right-handed batters.
Overall, lefties are hitting .188 and slugging .406 against Berrios. In contrast, righties are hitting .328 and slugging .463.
Berrios has had two superb starts so far in which he allowed one run or fewer over the course of six innings.
Those two starts came against the Brewers and Pirates. Milwaukee’s right-handers rank 25th in slugging while Pittsburgh’s rank 27th in the category.
His next best performances came against Cleveland — in his last start, he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings and in July he allowed two runs in five innings.
It is true that these numbers aren’t incredible. But they do not reflect any struggles on his end against right-handed batters.
In both games, a single Cleveland switch-hitter, batting from the left side of the plate, hit a home run that scored all of the runs that Berrios allowed in that game.
The rest of Berrios’ starts were terrible. In each of these three starts, he allowed four or five runs and yielded an ERA over 6.00.
Those three starts came against the White Sox and Royals. Both teams — counting only their right-handed batters -- rank top-four in slugging.
One may counter and point out the distinction between his home and away numbers. Doesn’t the fact that Berrios is performing vastly better at home generate an obvious conclusion?
But Berrios faced Kansas City twice, once at home and once on the road. No matter the location, Berrios performed very poorly against this righty-heavy lineup.
Reasoning For Berrios’ Struggles
Berrios shows that velocity isn’t everything. While he’s improved in this individual respect, I think it only hurts him more because he’s not missing bats with his pitches. Instead, he’s allowing hard contact at a career-high rate.
When opponents make clean contact with a higher-velocity pitch, simple physics indicate that it’s easier for the batter to launch the ball farther in the opposite direction from which it came. A high-velocity pitch meets a high-velocity hit.
A major problem with Berrios is his command. He’s walking 4.50 batters per nine innings, which is nearly twice as many as he did last year.
When he does throw strikes, he remains susceptible to leaving them in the more hittable parts of the plate especially when he falls behind in the count and wants to prevent his walk rate from continuing to skyrocket.
Against righties, Berrios lacks the same options that he possesses against lefties.
Facing the latter, he features a very effective change-up — this pitch is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters. Lefties hit .100 against this pitch and he throws it 26 percent of the time against them.
When he faces righties, it’s true that he still possesses a sufficient variety of pitches to offer.
But he loses that variety when he falls behind in the count, which, given his career-worst struggles with his strike rate, happens frequently.
While righties are crushing his change-up with a .500 BA, they are also hitting .600 against his fastball and .286 against his sinker. These three pitches already make up 67 percent of his arsenal against righties.
After right-handed opponents get ahead in the count, he’s throwing his atrocious fastball and his weak sinker with combined 75 percent frequency.
Berrios vs. White Sox Batters
Two righties who look to continue dominating Berrios are James McCann and Eloy Jimenez.
McCann is 8-for-24 (.333) lifetime against Berrios with two doubles and four home runs (.917 slugging rate).
Jimenez is 6-for-15 (.400) with one double and one home run (.667) in his career against Berrios.
Reynaldo Lopez
Characteristically, Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00 ERA) likes to lean on his fastball.
But he’s a bit lost because his favorite pitch is failing him. While he still throws this pitch nearly half the time because he mostly lacks other options, opponents are hitting .500 against it.
His fastball velocity, normally distinct for being high, is down 1.40 mph this year.
In view of his shifting release points for this pitch from game to game, his problem seems to be mechanical. He has not hit upon a consistent delivery for this pitch.
Trends
Two trends are noteworthy with Lopez.
One, his career ERA is nearly 1.00 higher at night than during the day. His ERA is 5.13 at night versus 4.21 during the day.
Two, he has a terrible history at Target Field. In five starts, he is winless, 0-4, with a 5.79 ERA.
Twins Batters
In 100 at-bats, active Minnesota batters hit .270 and slug a solid .560 against Lopez.
Six different ones slug over .550 with Lopez on the mound.
For example, Nelson Cruz is 5-for-10 (.500) with two doubles and one home run (1.000 slugging rate).
The Verdict
Jose Berrios will struggle against Chicago’s righty-dominant lineup.
But Reynaldo Lopez’s awful numbers in Minnesota, at night, and against Twin batters indicate that Berrios will also benefit from strong run support.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (odds TBA)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Jose Berrios’ Major Trend
One key factor is deciding whether Minnesota starter Jose Berrios (2-3, 4.75 ERA) performs well in a game. This key factor is the quality of the opposing lineup’s right-handed batters.
Overall, lefties are hitting .188 and slugging .406 against Berrios. In contrast, righties are hitting .328 and slugging .463.
Berrios has had two superb starts so far in which he allowed one run or fewer over the course of six innings.
Those two starts came against the Brewers and Pirates. Milwaukee’s right-handers rank 25th in slugging while Pittsburgh’s rank 27th in the category.
His next best performances came against Cleveland — in his last start, he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings and in July he allowed two runs in five innings.
It is true that these numbers aren’t incredible. But they do not reflect any struggles on his end against right-handed batters.
In both games, a single Cleveland switch-hitter, batting from the left side of the plate, hit a home run that scored all of the runs that Berrios allowed in that game.
The rest of Berrios’ starts were terrible. In each of these three starts, he allowed four or five runs and yielded an ERA over 6.00.
Those three starts came against the White Sox and Royals. Both teams — counting only their right-handed batters -- rank top-four in slugging.
One may counter and point out the distinction between his home and away numbers. Doesn’t the fact that Berrios is performing vastly better at home generate an obvious conclusion?
But Berrios faced Kansas City twice, once at home and once on the road. No matter the location, Berrios performed very poorly against this righty-heavy lineup.
Reasoning For Berrios’ Struggles
Berrios shows that velocity isn’t everything. While he’s improved in this individual respect, I think it only hurts him more because he’s not missing bats with his pitches. Instead, he’s allowing hard contact at a career-high rate.
When opponents make clean contact with a higher-velocity pitch, simple physics indicate that it’s easier for the batter to launch the ball farther in the opposite direction from which it came. A high-velocity pitch meets a high-velocity hit.
A major problem with Berrios is his command. He’s walking 4.50 batters per nine innings, which is nearly twice as many as he did last year.
When he does throw strikes, he remains susceptible to leaving them in the more hittable parts of the plate especially when he falls behind in the count and wants to prevent his walk rate from continuing to skyrocket.
Against righties, Berrios lacks the same options that he possesses against lefties.
Facing the latter, he features a very effective change-up — this pitch is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters. Lefties hit .100 against this pitch and he throws it 26 percent of the time against them.
When he faces righties, it’s true that he still possesses a sufficient variety of pitches to offer.
But he loses that variety when he falls behind in the count, which, given his career-worst struggles with his strike rate, happens frequently.
While righties are crushing his change-up with a .500 BA, they are also hitting .600 against his fastball and .286 against his sinker. These three pitches already make up 67 percent of his arsenal against righties.
After right-handed opponents get ahead in the count, he’s throwing his atrocious fastball and his weak sinker with combined 75 percent frequency.
Berrios vs. White Sox Batters
Two righties who look to continue dominating Berrios are James McCann and Eloy Jimenez.
McCann is 8-for-24 (.333) lifetime against Berrios with two doubles and four home runs (.917 slugging rate).
Jimenez is 6-for-15 (.400) with one double and one home run (.667) in his career against Berrios.
Reynaldo Lopez
Characteristically, Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00 ERA) likes to lean on his fastball.
But he’s a bit lost because his favorite pitch is failing him. While he still throws this pitch nearly half the time because he mostly lacks other options, opponents are hitting .500 against it.
His fastball velocity, normally distinct for being high, is down 1.40 mph this year.
In view of his shifting release points for this pitch from game to game, his problem seems to be mechanical. He has not hit upon a consistent delivery for this pitch.
Trends
Two trends are noteworthy with Lopez.
One, his career ERA is nearly 1.00 higher at night than during the day. His ERA is 5.13 at night versus 4.21 during the day.
Two, he has a terrible history at Target Field. In five starts, he is winless, 0-4, with a 5.79 ERA.
Twins Batters
In 100 at-bats, active Minnesota batters hit .270 and slug a solid .560 against Lopez.
Six different ones slug over .550 with Lopez on the mound.
For example, Nelson Cruz is 5-for-10 (.500) with two doubles and one home run (1.000 slugging rate).
The Verdict
Jose Berrios will struggle against Chicago’s righty-dominant lineup.
But Reynaldo Lopez’s awful numbers in Minnesota, at night, and against Twin batters indicate that Berrios will also benefit from strong run support.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (odds TBA)
