White Sox vs. Royals: MLB Best Bets
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, September 3, 2020 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City
Dylan Cease’s Lucky Start
In his last start, Chicago starter Dylan Cease's (4-2, 3.00 ERA) result was absolutely not telling.
On the surface, he seems to have performed really well as he allowed one run in 4.1 innings.
However, his positive ERA masks a 7.98 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 6.79 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio of fly balls to home runs). xFIP, especially, has garnered a reputation for being predictive.
He benefitted from yielding a .000 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite generating zero soft contact.
In other words, Royal players consistently made good contact with his pitches. Somehow, as a matter of bad fortune, batted balls simply kept finding White Sox fielders.
This single-game distinction between his ERA on the one hand and his FIP and xFIP on the other, as massive as it is, is reflective of his season as a whole.
Despite allowing a ton of non-soft contact, he is stranding baserunners at an unsustainable rate and yielding a statistically, unsustainably low BABIP.
When Cease faces the Royals tonight, we will see more honest results. If anything, his ERA will find a way to be even higher than his FIP and xFIP.
Cease vs Royals Batters
Cease is a wild pitcher who packs serious velocity in his stuff. Put differently, his pitch quality is professional-level. But the youngster is also walking 4.50 batters per nine innings and allowing an even more absurd two home runs per nine innings.
Command is crucial. It’s very typical for guys who struggle throwing strikes to compensate for that struggle and to avoid walking too many batters by throwing easier strikes.
For example, 6.65 percent of Cease’s strikes land directly down the middle.
In such cases where he throws pitches in more hittable locations, velocity works against Cease. When batters make good contact with his pitches, as they so often do, they redirect them with greater force in the opposite direction.
The fastball is crucial for Cease. It’s his favorite pitch — he throws it with 47.76 percent frequency.
He does own a second primary pitch, his slider, although this is largely a two-strike pitch. So if Royal batters thrive against his fastball, they doubly benefit from not having to see as much of his more dangerous slider.
Royal batters match up well with Cease because they characteristically thrive against the high-velocity (94-98 mph on average) fastball.
They rank second in slugging .553 against this pitch from righties.
So they will crush Cease, crush his favorite pitch, and minimize the frequency with which he throws what would be his best pitch.
Royal Batters
In 50 at-bats, active KC batters already have three doubles, a triple, and a home run, all of which amounts to a superb .828 slugging rate, against Cease.
Look out, for example, for Alex Gordon. He’s 3-for-6 (.500) against Cease with two home runs.
Danny Duffy vs. White Sox Batters
Kansas City starter Danny Duffy (2-2, 4.11 ERA) matches up poorly with White Sox batters.
Duffy is a southpaw and is at his best when facing same-handed batters.
In particular, he likes to emphasize his best pitch, which is his slider, against them.
When he faces a lefty-heavy lineup, he therefore benefits because he can feature his best stuff.
However, the White Sox own a righty-heavy lineup.
As of now,whereas lefties slug .115 against Duffy, righties slug .471 against him. This disparity is even more pronounced in Kansas City where righties slug .565 against him.
Chicago matches up well with Duffy because its lineup owns the third-best slugging rate when only right-handed batters are considered.
The White Sox pack tremendous power in their right-handed bats, which have constructed strong numbers when facing Duffy.
Seven different Chi Sox hitters bad over .300 against Duffy and seven slug over .400. Four slug over .800 against him.
Look out, for example, for Jose Abreu. He’s 19-for-59 (.322) with three doubles and two homers (.475 slugging rate) with Duffy on the mound.
Collectively, Chicago batters hit .289 and slug .430 in 242 at-bats against Duffy.
The Verdict
Due to match-up reasons, both lineups are salivating to face the other team’s starting pitcher. Let’s concentrate our betting on the first-half over so that we can take the fullest advantage of both starters struggling
Best Bet: First-FIve Over (Odds TBA)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, September 3, 2020 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City
Dylan Cease’s Lucky Start
In his last start, Chicago starter Dylan Cease's (4-2, 3.00 ERA) result was absolutely not telling.
On the surface, he seems to have performed really well as he allowed one run in 4.1 innings.
However, his positive ERA masks a 7.98 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 6.79 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio of fly balls to home runs). xFIP, especially, has garnered a reputation for being predictive.
He benefitted from yielding a .000 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite generating zero soft contact.
In other words, Royal players consistently made good contact with his pitches. Somehow, as a matter of bad fortune, batted balls simply kept finding White Sox fielders.
This single-game distinction between his ERA on the one hand and his FIP and xFIP on the other, as massive as it is, is reflective of his season as a whole.
Despite allowing a ton of non-soft contact, he is stranding baserunners at an unsustainable rate and yielding a statistically, unsustainably low BABIP.
When Cease faces the Royals tonight, we will see more honest results. If anything, his ERA will find a way to be even higher than his FIP and xFIP.
Cease vs Royals Batters
Cease is a wild pitcher who packs serious velocity in his stuff. Put differently, his pitch quality is professional-level. But the youngster is also walking 4.50 batters per nine innings and allowing an even more absurd two home runs per nine innings.
Command is crucial. It’s very typical for guys who struggle throwing strikes to compensate for that struggle and to avoid walking too many batters by throwing easier strikes.
For example, 6.65 percent of Cease’s strikes land directly down the middle.
In such cases where he throws pitches in more hittable locations, velocity works against Cease. When batters make good contact with his pitches, as they so often do, they redirect them with greater force in the opposite direction.
The fastball is crucial for Cease. It’s his favorite pitch — he throws it with 47.76 percent frequency.
He does own a second primary pitch, his slider, although this is largely a two-strike pitch. So if Royal batters thrive against his fastball, they doubly benefit from not having to see as much of his more dangerous slider.
Royal batters match up well with Cease because they characteristically thrive against the high-velocity (94-98 mph on average) fastball.
They rank second in slugging .553 against this pitch from righties.
So they will crush Cease, crush his favorite pitch, and minimize the frequency with which he throws what would be his best pitch.
Royal Batters
In 50 at-bats, active KC batters already have three doubles, a triple, and a home run, all of which amounts to a superb .828 slugging rate, against Cease.
Look out, for example, for Alex Gordon. He’s 3-for-6 (.500) against Cease with two home runs.
Danny Duffy vs. White Sox Batters
Kansas City starter Danny Duffy (2-2, 4.11 ERA) matches up poorly with White Sox batters.
Duffy is a southpaw and is at his best when facing same-handed batters.
In particular, he likes to emphasize his best pitch, which is his slider, against them.
When he faces a lefty-heavy lineup, he therefore benefits because he can feature his best stuff.
However, the White Sox own a righty-heavy lineup.
As of now,whereas lefties slug .115 against Duffy, righties slug .471 against him. This disparity is even more pronounced in Kansas City where righties slug .565 against him.
Chicago matches up well with Duffy because its lineup owns the third-best slugging rate when only right-handed batters are considered.
The White Sox pack tremendous power in their right-handed bats, which have constructed strong numbers when facing Duffy.
Seven different Chi Sox hitters bad over .300 against Duffy and seven slug over .400. Four slug over .800 against him.
Look out, for example, for Jose Abreu. He’s 19-for-59 (.322) with three doubles and two homers (.475 slugging rate) with Duffy on the mound.
Collectively, Chicago batters hit .289 and slug .430 in 242 at-bats against Duffy.
The Verdict
Due to match-up reasons, both lineups are salivating to face the other team’s starting pitcher. Let’s concentrate our betting on the first-half over so that we can take the fullest advantage of both starters struggling
Best Bet: First-FIve Over (Odds TBA)
