White Sox vs. Cubs Sunday Night Baseball Preview
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, August 5, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ABC) at Wrigley Field
Dylan Cease's Improvement
Since there are so many pitchers to keep up with, I can hardly blame you if your conception of White Sox starter Dylan Cease is outdated.
For much of his young career, he has been cemented in the minds of many as a pitcher with marked command issues.
Last year, his unique tendency to walk batters helped his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) to be an awful (and devilishly ominous) 6.66.
This year, however, his FIP is 3.74, which signifies a tremendous improvement.
He is walking vastly fewer batters while striking out nearly five more batters per nine innings.
Cease's fastball, which is easily his favorite pitch, yields a much lower slugging rate this year partly because of his improved command.
This year, this pitch enjoys a seven-percent higher active spin percentage, which means that more of his spin is contributing to the pitch's movement.
Cease really likes to elevate his fastball. Its spin gives it the appearance of rising action so that batters swing underneath it and miss it completely.
His higher spin percentage contributes to his higher strikeout rate overall and specifically with his fastball.
Cease Is A Good Bet
Several statistics indicate that Cease is a good pitcher to back.
This season, the White Sox are 12-3 and yield +8.2 units when Cease is favored.
More narrowly, they are 3-0 and yield +3 units when Cease is favored at -200 or less.
Cease vs. Cub Batters
Cub batters have seen very little of Cease -- only three active Cub players have faced him.
Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, and Robinson Chirinos are combined 2-for-13 (.154) against Cease. They have not faced this year's new-ish and very much improved Cease.
More broadly, the Cubs rank are below-average in slugging against Cease's three favorite pitches -- the fastball, slider, and curveball, which combine to make up over 90 percent of Cease's arsenal -- from righties.
Zach Davies
Cub starter Zach Davies is coming off a pair of awful starts.
In those two starts, he four earned runs in six innings against the Reds and seven earned runs in four innings against Colorado.
He also allowed a combined total of three home runs in those two starts, which is a frightful tendency against a White Sox lineup that has already belted four home runs in this series.
Davies Is A Bad Bet
The Cubs are 1-6 in Davies' last seven starts.
That one win came against lowly Arizona.
In a similar vein, the Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games, spelling a negative team rhythm.
Those two wins came against teams that are 11 games below .500.
Moreover, the Cubs are costing their backers over 10 units when they are the underdogs and are yielding -9.5 units when facing a right-handed pitcher.
While they remain profitable at home, they've lost their last four at Wrigley Field.
Bullpen
Given Davies' poor form, the power in the White Sox lineup, Cease's more positive form, Cease's improvement, and Cease's match-up advantage against Cub batters, I expect the White Sox to lead through five innings.
But the White Sox are strongly favored, so we will find more value in a full-game bet if a full-game bet were to make sense.
I think a full-game investment in the White Sox does make perfect sense because their top relievers are mostly ready to go.
Liam Hendriks is fresh. Jose Ruiz, who had an ERA nearly under 3.00 before his last appearance, is also fresh.
Michael Kopech hasn't thrown too many pitches in either of his last two outings, nor did Ryan Tepera suffer much use yesterday and he didn't pitch in the game before.
Kopech, Tepera, and easily Hendriks all own sub-three ERAs.
The Verdict
Right now, the White Sox ML is a bit chalky. If it is too chalky for you, I wholeheartedly recommend a play on the White Sox run-line because this powerful lineup with all of the strong and favorable pitching that the team has to offer today will win by multiple runs.
Best Bet: White Sox ML at -175 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, August 5, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ABC) at Wrigley Field
Dylan Cease's Improvement
Since there are so many pitchers to keep up with, I can hardly blame you if your conception of White Sox starter Dylan Cease is outdated.
For much of his young career, he has been cemented in the minds of many as a pitcher with marked command issues.
Last year, his unique tendency to walk batters helped his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) to be an awful (and devilishly ominous) 6.66.
This year, however, his FIP is 3.74, which signifies a tremendous improvement.
He is walking vastly fewer batters while striking out nearly five more batters per nine innings.
Cease's fastball, which is easily his favorite pitch, yields a much lower slugging rate this year partly because of his improved command.
This year, this pitch enjoys a seven-percent higher active spin percentage, which means that more of his spin is contributing to the pitch's movement.
Cease really likes to elevate his fastball. Its spin gives it the appearance of rising action so that batters swing underneath it and miss it completely.
His higher spin percentage contributes to his higher strikeout rate overall and specifically with his fastball.
Cease Is A Good Bet
Several statistics indicate that Cease is a good pitcher to back.
This season, the White Sox are 12-3 and yield +8.2 units when Cease is favored.
More narrowly, they are 3-0 and yield +3 units when Cease is favored at -200 or less.
Cease vs. Cub Batters
Cub batters have seen very little of Cease -- only three active Cub players have faced him.
Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, and Robinson Chirinos are combined 2-for-13 (.154) against Cease. They have not faced this year's new-ish and very much improved Cease.
More broadly, the Cubs rank are below-average in slugging against Cease's three favorite pitches -- the fastball, slider, and curveball, which combine to make up over 90 percent of Cease's arsenal -- from righties.
Zach Davies
Cub starter Zach Davies is coming off a pair of awful starts.
In those two starts, he four earned runs in six innings against the Reds and seven earned runs in four innings against Colorado.
He also allowed a combined total of three home runs in those two starts, which is a frightful tendency against a White Sox lineup that has already belted four home runs in this series.
Davies Is A Bad Bet
The Cubs are 1-6 in Davies' last seven starts.
That one win came against lowly Arizona.
In a similar vein, the Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games, spelling a negative team rhythm.
Those two wins came against teams that are 11 games below .500.
Moreover, the Cubs are costing their backers over 10 units when they are the underdogs and are yielding -9.5 units when facing a right-handed pitcher.
While they remain profitable at home, they've lost their last four at Wrigley Field.
Bullpen
Given Davies' poor form, the power in the White Sox lineup, Cease's more positive form, Cease's improvement, and Cease's match-up advantage against Cub batters, I expect the White Sox to lead through five innings.
But the White Sox are strongly favored, so we will find more value in a full-game bet if a full-game bet were to make sense.
I think a full-game investment in the White Sox does make perfect sense because their top relievers are mostly ready to go.
Liam Hendriks is fresh. Jose Ruiz, who had an ERA nearly under 3.00 before his last appearance, is also fresh.
Michael Kopech hasn't thrown too many pitches in either of his last two outings, nor did Ryan Tepera suffer much use yesterday and he didn't pitch in the game before.
Kopech, Tepera, and easily Hendriks all own sub-three ERAs.
The Verdict
Right now, the White Sox ML is a bit chalky. If it is too chalky for you, I wholeheartedly recommend a play on the White Sox run-line because this powerful lineup with all of the strong and favorable pitching that the team has to offer today will win by multiple runs.
Best Bet: White Sox ML at -175 with BetOnline
