White Sox vs. Cubs: MLB Best Bets
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
I Believe In Yu
Performance-wise, Chicago’s Yu Darvish (4-1, 1.80 ERA) has been a model of consistency.
In four of his five starts and in each of his last four, he has lasted at least six innings while yielding one run or zero runs.
His opener against Milwaukee is the one exception.
Although, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-averge ratio of fly balls to home runs) indicates that he performed very well in that game.
Statistically speaking, he was, perhaps you could say, unlucky in that Milwaukee game because he yielded little hard contact, but still allowed a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
He has yielded an FIP of under 3.20 in all five of his starts and an FIP of under 2.50 in four of his starts.
After previous years of disappointment, you might have written Darvish off.
So what is Darvish doing in order to produce the fact that his ERA is an absurd 2.18 lower than it was last year?
While he’s still generating a lot of strikeouts, he is allowing vastly fewer walks and home runs.
Pitching charts reveal that, in addition to hitting the corners of the zone, he is also varying his location. He is alternating more between low location and high location.
His individual pitch quality has also improved.
Darvish is already somebody who’s comfortable throwing many different pitches.
He can work backwards and forwards, such that it’s hard to guess which pitch is coming at any point in the count.
For example, to righties he offers both a fastball and slider with over 30 percent frequency. He’s also very comfortable starting off the count with either pitch.
Darvish throws six different pitches with over seven percent frequency and only one pitch with over 30 percent frequency.
The average velocity of each of his main pitches has risen from last year’s average.
While his four-seamer has stronger movement, his slider has become tighter while its reduced vertical movement makes it harder to track.
Darvish vs. White Sox Batters
The thing to note about the White Sox lineup is that it is extremely righty-heavy.
Its five top hitters, as measured by slugging rate, are the only ones on the team slugging over .500. Each of them is right-handed.
Darvish is a nightmare match-up for right-handed batters because he is performing superbly well against them.
His FIP when facing righties is 0.93. Against righties, he’s generating 11.32 strikeouts per nine innings while walking fewer than one per nine innings.
The White Sox’s worst performances came against right-handed pitchers.
St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright, for example, allowed one run over five innings. Cleveland’s Zach Plesac shut them out over six innings.
Today, Yu Darvish will find the right ingredients in his vast repertoire to continue dominating right-handed hitters.
Given this match-up detail, be sure to have a 5Dimes account so you can bet on the White Sox first-half team total under.
Is Dylan Cease Legit?
On the surface, Cease seems like he’s enjoying a great season because he owns a 4-1 record along with a 3.16 ERA.
But his low ERA masks a very high 6.17 FIP and 5.80 xFIP.
Right now, he’s relying on help in two areas which will cease to be helpful areas.
One, he’s yielding a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of only .263 despite generating soft contact at a rate of less than 10 percent.
Two, he’s stranding 83.9 percent of his baserunners.
Both his BABIP and his strand rate are absolutely unsustainable.
Cease has also benefitted from soft competition. All of his opponents thus far rank in the bottom half against right-handed pitchers.
So, in addition to having statistical sustainability working against him in the form of a deflated BABIP and inflated strand rate, Cease will have to face his toughest opponent.
Cease vs Cubs Batters
Cease is a righty who favors a high-velocity fastball.
So look out for Ian Happ, who is slugging .750 against the high-velo (94-98 mph) fastball from righties.
Jason Kipnis and Kyle Schwarber are each slugging .667 against the high-velo fastball from righties.
The Verdict
The strongly improved Darvish is a match-up nightmare for the righty-heavy White Sox.
His counterpart is overrated and in for a negative surprise facing a Cubs lineup that features multiple guys who excel at hitting his favored stuff.
For the above reasons, look to place a first-half run-line wager on the Cubs.
If the first-half betting odds are too expensive (-150 or higher), then invest in the full-game run-line.
Best Bet: Cubs RL (odds TBA)
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
I Believe In Yu
Performance-wise, Chicago’s Yu Darvish (4-1, 1.80 ERA) has been a model of consistency.
In four of his five starts and in each of his last four, he has lasted at least six innings while yielding one run or zero runs.
His opener against Milwaukee is the one exception.
Although, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-averge ratio of fly balls to home runs) indicates that he performed very well in that game.
Statistically speaking, he was, perhaps you could say, unlucky in that Milwaukee game because he yielded little hard contact, but still allowed a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
He has yielded an FIP of under 3.20 in all five of his starts and an FIP of under 2.50 in four of his starts.
After previous years of disappointment, you might have written Darvish off.
So what is Darvish doing in order to produce the fact that his ERA is an absurd 2.18 lower than it was last year?
While he’s still generating a lot of strikeouts, he is allowing vastly fewer walks and home runs.
Pitching charts reveal that, in addition to hitting the corners of the zone, he is also varying his location. He is alternating more between low location and high location.
His individual pitch quality has also improved.
Darvish is already somebody who’s comfortable throwing many different pitches.
He can work backwards and forwards, such that it’s hard to guess which pitch is coming at any point in the count.
For example, to righties he offers both a fastball and slider with over 30 percent frequency. He’s also very comfortable starting off the count with either pitch.
Darvish throws six different pitches with over seven percent frequency and only one pitch with over 30 percent frequency.
The average velocity of each of his main pitches has risen from last year’s average.
While his four-seamer has stronger movement, his slider has become tighter while its reduced vertical movement makes it harder to track.
Darvish vs. White Sox Batters
The thing to note about the White Sox lineup is that it is extremely righty-heavy.
Its five top hitters, as measured by slugging rate, are the only ones on the team slugging over .500. Each of them is right-handed.
Darvish is a nightmare match-up for right-handed batters because he is performing superbly well against them.
His FIP when facing righties is 0.93. Against righties, he’s generating 11.32 strikeouts per nine innings while walking fewer than one per nine innings.
The White Sox’s worst performances came against right-handed pitchers.
St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright, for example, allowed one run over five innings. Cleveland’s Zach Plesac shut them out over six innings.
Today, Yu Darvish will find the right ingredients in his vast repertoire to continue dominating right-handed hitters.
Given this match-up detail, be sure to have a 5Dimes account so you can bet on the White Sox first-half team total under.
Is Dylan Cease Legit?
On the surface, Cease seems like he’s enjoying a great season because he owns a 4-1 record along with a 3.16 ERA.
But his low ERA masks a very high 6.17 FIP and 5.80 xFIP.
Right now, he’s relying on help in two areas which will cease to be helpful areas.
One, he’s yielding a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of only .263 despite generating soft contact at a rate of less than 10 percent.
Two, he’s stranding 83.9 percent of his baserunners.
Both his BABIP and his strand rate are absolutely unsustainable.
Cease has also benefitted from soft competition. All of his opponents thus far rank in the bottom half against right-handed pitchers.
So, in addition to having statistical sustainability working against him in the form of a deflated BABIP and inflated strand rate, Cease will have to face his toughest opponent.
Cease vs Cubs Batters
Cease is a righty who favors a high-velocity fastball.
So look out for Ian Happ, who is slugging .750 against the high-velo (94-98 mph) fastball from righties.
Jason Kipnis and Kyle Schwarber are each slugging .667 against the high-velo fastball from righties.
The Verdict
The strongly improved Darvish is a match-up nightmare for the righty-heavy White Sox.
His counterpart is overrated and in for a negative surprise facing a Cubs lineup that features multiple guys who excel at hitting his favored stuff.
For the above reasons, look to place a first-half run-line wager on the Cubs.
If the first-half betting odds are too expensive (-150 or higher), then invest in the full-game run-line.
Best Bet: Cubs RL (odds TBA)
