White Sox vs. Brewers Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Lance Lynn
Lately, White Sox starter Lance Lynn has been pitching superbly -- just like he was in April and has been throughout the season.
He has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts.
In two of those three starts, he had some trouble with walks.
But even then, he lasted six innings while remaining nearly unscathed.
His two favorite pitches are his fastball and cutter. Both pitches combine for 75.2 percent of his arsenal.
The fastball remains his most frequent pitch when batters do get ahead of the count.
Lynn can rely on his fastball, as he's having more success with this pitch than he did at any other point in his career.
Compared to his fastball in other seasons, in 2021 he is achieving the highest strikeout rate with this pitch while yielding the lowest slugging rate.
Opposing batters are hitting .170 and slugging .267 against it.
Lynn vs. Brewer Batters
Lynn promises to thrive against Milwaukee because he matches up well against its batters.
He throws a third pitch with over 15 percent frequency, the sinker. Against Lynn's three favorite pitches from righties, the Brewers rank 27th at home in hitting .233 and slugging .394.
Moreover, Lynn boasts an excellent track record in Milwaukee.
In this venue (formerly named Miller Park), Lynn has a 2.37 ERA in 10 career appearances, nine of which were starts.
Active Brewer batters have done their most damage against Lynn with the long ball, although they accomplished that damage in previous years.
This year, though, is a special one for Lynn in that he is producing his best numbers and doing a consistently strong job of limiting opposing home runs.
Current Brewer batters have accumulated 66 career at-bats against Lynn and they hit .227 and slug .439 against him.
Expect little from Avisail Garcia, for example. He's 2-for-17 (.118) with nine strikeouts in his career against Lynn.
Brandon Woodruff
It's modestly surprising that Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff hasn't been surrendering more home runs. He has been generating fewer ground balls and his xFIP in recent outings suggests that opponents should be belting more homers off of him.
To explain, FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding. xFIP is like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls.
Woodruff also has to face a stronger lineup than his recent opponents could offer him, as measured by runs per game.
Plus, he'll get more rest, which his career stats actually suggest will be bad for him. In terms of ERA, he is easily at his best when he gets his usual five days of rest.
Woodruff vs. White Sox Batters
I like the White Sox lineup tonight because it matches up well against Woodruff.
Woodruff primarily throws a fastball and sinker. Both pitches combine for just over 60 percent of his arsenal.
Chicago ranks 10th in slugging .461 against those two pitches combined from righties.
Active White Sox batters have not produced a meaningful data sample against Woodruff.
But look out especially for rising star Andrew Vaughn, who is 7-for-12 with three doubles and a homer in his past three games.
The Verdict
The White Sox wore down one of their top relievers last night, a guy who can go multiple innings.
They lack a sufficient number of other quality relievers.
Plus, if they were to use this worn down reliever -- Jose Ruiz does occasionally make back-to-back appearances -- he would suffer from the fact that the Brewers just saw him.
All of this is just to say that I do not prefer a full-game play on the White Sox, although the freshness of their closer and their edge in starting pitching would make them the side to back if you do want to have action on the full game.
Because of Chicago hitters' match-up edge, Woodruff's bad spot off extra rest, Lynn's strong form, and Lynn's good spot in Milwaukee, I recommend making a play on the White Sox first-half money-line.
Best Bet: White Sox First-Half ML at (Odds TBA)
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Lance Lynn
Lately, White Sox starter Lance Lynn has been pitching superbly -- just like he was in April and has been throughout the season.
He has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts.
In two of those three starts, he had some trouble with walks.
But even then, he lasted six innings while remaining nearly unscathed.
His two favorite pitches are his fastball and cutter. Both pitches combine for 75.2 percent of his arsenal.
The fastball remains his most frequent pitch when batters do get ahead of the count.
Lynn can rely on his fastball, as he's having more success with this pitch than he did at any other point in his career.
Compared to his fastball in other seasons, in 2021 he is achieving the highest strikeout rate with this pitch while yielding the lowest slugging rate.
Opposing batters are hitting .170 and slugging .267 against it.
Lynn vs. Brewer Batters
Lynn promises to thrive against Milwaukee because he matches up well against its batters.
He throws a third pitch with over 15 percent frequency, the sinker. Against Lynn's three favorite pitches from righties, the Brewers rank 27th at home in hitting .233 and slugging .394.
Moreover, Lynn boasts an excellent track record in Milwaukee.
In this venue (formerly named Miller Park), Lynn has a 2.37 ERA in 10 career appearances, nine of which were starts.
Active Brewer batters have done their most damage against Lynn with the long ball, although they accomplished that damage in previous years.
This year, though, is a special one for Lynn in that he is producing his best numbers and doing a consistently strong job of limiting opposing home runs.
Current Brewer batters have accumulated 66 career at-bats against Lynn and they hit .227 and slug .439 against him.
Expect little from Avisail Garcia, for example. He's 2-for-17 (.118) with nine strikeouts in his career against Lynn.
Brandon Woodruff
It's modestly surprising that Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff hasn't been surrendering more home runs. He has been generating fewer ground balls and his xFIP in recent outings suggests that opponents should be belting more homers off of him.
To explain, FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding. xFIP is like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls.
Woodruff also has to face a stronger lineup than his recent opponents could offer him, as measured by runs per game.
Plus, he'll get more rest, which his career stats actually suggest will be bad for him. In terms of ERA, he is easily at his best when he gets his usual five days of rest.
Woodruff vs. White Sox Batters
I like the White Sox lineup tonight because it matches up well against Woodruff.
Woodruff primarily throws a fastball and sinker. Both pitches combine for just over 60 percent of his arsenal.
Chicago ranks 10th in slugging .461 against those two pitches combined from righties.
Active White Sox batters have not produced a meaningful data sample against Woodruff.
But look out especially for rising star Andrew Vaughn, who is 7-for-12 with three doubles and a homer in his past three games.
The Verdict
The White Sox wore down one of their top relievers last night, a guy who can go multiple innings.
They lack a sufficient number of other quality relievers.
Plus, if they were to use this worn down reliever -- Jose Ruiz does occasionally make back-to-back appearances -- he would suffer from the fact that the Brewers just saw him.
All of this is just to say that I do not prefer a full-game play on the White Sox, although the freshness of their closer and their edge in starting pitching would make them the side to back if you do want to have action on the full game.
Because of Chicago hitters' match-up edge, Woodruff's bad spot off extra rest, Lynn's strong form, and Lynn's good spot in Milwaukee, I recommend making a play on the White Sox first-half money-line.
Best Bet: White Sox First-Half ML at (Odds TBA)
