MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, April 19, 2021 at 11:10 a.m. at Fenway Park in Boston
Eovaldi’s Strong Start
Given the injuries in its starting rotation, Boston needed some guys to step up.
One such player is today’s starting pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi’s ERA right now is 2.08. He has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in three starts and never more than two earned runs in a single outing.
One significant reason for his improvement this season — his ERA last year was 3.72 — is his fastball.
His fastball is his most frequent pitch. So it’s obviously important that he throws it well.
Whereas this pitch yielded a .328 BA in 2020, opponents are batting .182 this season against Eovaldi’s fastball.
He still throws it very hard — it averages 97.1 mph.
But he puts a greater ratio of batters away with this pitch and forces them to whiff on it more often.
One thing that he’s done is add greater horizontal movement. Because this pitch moves more, opponents are having more trouble making decent contact with it.
Eovaldi vs. White Sox Batters
Chicago’s lineup matches up poorly with the right-handed Eovaldi in two respects.
One, the White Sox are struggling particularly against right-handed pitchers in general.
They are hitting .226 and slugging .326 against right-handed starters and suffer similar numbers against right-handed pitchers overall.
Two, they rank last-place in slugging against Eovaldi’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and change-up from righties.
Lucas Giolito’s Strong Start
Like Eovaldi, White Sox starter Lucas Giolito boasts an excellent FIP — FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding.
Giolito’s FIP is currently 1.80. He’s thrown 26 strikeouts while walking five batters.
Giolito’s stuff makes life easier for him. By forcing batters to chase pitches at a very high rate, he doesn’t have to throw as many strikes let alone throw pitches in more dangerous locations.
He relies on two very effective pitches, a fastball that carries a lot of spin and a change-up that creates an unusually high velocity differential relative to his fastball.
With both pitches, he matches up well against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 21st in slugging against the fastball and change-up from righties.
Daytime
The time is perfect for a first-five “under” play.
In their career, Giolito and Eovaldi both boast significantly stronger ERAs during the day — Giolito’s is 3.22 during the day compared to 4.92 at night and Eovaldi’s is 3.34 during the day compared to 4.64 at night.
Also note that both lineups are hitting much worse during the day than they are at night.
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, April 19, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Kevin Gausman
Philadelphia batters are very familiar with San Francisco starter Kevin Gausman, who used to pitch in their division as a member of the Atlanta Braves.
Gausman promises to struggle today for two reasons in particular.
One, he does not like pitching in Philadelphia. He is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA in the Phillies’ home ballpark.
Two, Philly batters have accrued a lot of success when facing Gausman.
Overall, they hit .270 and slug .431 in 137 at-bats against him.
Five different Phillies hit over .290 in at least five at-bats against Gausman. Four slug close to .600 or higher.
Watch out, for example, for Jean Segura. He’s 5-for-10 (.500) in his career against Gausman with two doubles.
Chase Anderson
Philadelphia starter Chase Anderson is built to handle a San Francisco lineup that will want to rely on a number of opposite-handed batters.
One of Anderson’s favorite pitches is his change-up, which is a classic weapon for a right-handed pitcher against a left-handed batter.
He’s thrown his change-up 49 times and given up one hit. His change-up is elusive given its unusually strong horizontal movement.
Anderson also leans on a fastball and cutter. He throws all three pitches with between 23 and 33 percent frequency.
He matches up well against a Giant lineup that hits .208 and slugs .302 against him in 106 career at-bats.
The Giants are also hitting below average against his three favorite pitches combined from righties.
Expect Anderson to help the Phillies maintain one of the MLB’s best home records (7-2).
Parlay Verdict
The time is, literally speaking, just right for the White Sox and Red Sox. Both starting pitchers promise to continue their positive form and to take advantage of the match-up.
At home, Philadelphia gets to see Gausman again who struggles against Philly batters and in Philadelphia. Chase Anderson, who matches up well with San Francisco’s lineup, will outperform Gausman.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Red Sox First-Half Under & Phillies First-Half ML
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, April 19, 2021 at 11:10 a.m. at Fenway Park in Boston
Eovaldi’s Strong Start
Given the injuries in its starting rotation, Boston needed some guys to step up.
One such player is today’s starting pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi’s ERA right now is 2.08. He has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in three starts and never more than two earned runs in a single outing.
One significant reason for his improvement this season — his ERA last year was 3.72 — is his fastball.
His fastball is his most frequent pitch. So it’s obviously important that he throws it well.
Whereas this pitch yielded a .328 BA in 2020, opponents are batting .182 this season against Eovaldi’s fastball.
He still throws it very hard — it averages 97.1 mph.
But he puts a greater ratio of batters away with this pitch and forces them to whiff on it more often.
One thing that he’s done is add greater horizontal movement. Because this pitch moves more, opponents are having more trouble making decent contact with it.
Eovaldi vs. White Sox Batters
Chicago’s lineup matches up poorly with the right-handed Eovaldi in two respects.
One, the White Sox are struggling particularly against right-handed pitchers in general.
They are hitting .226 and slugging .326 against right-handed starters and suffer similar numbers against right-handed pitchers overall.
Two, they rank last-place in slugging against Eovaldi’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and change-up from righties.
Lucas Giolito’s Strong Start
Like Eovaldi, White Sox starter Lucas Giolito boasts an excellent FIP — FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding.
Giolito’s FIP is currently 1.80. He’s thrown 26 strikeouts while walking five batters.
Giolito’s stuff makes life easier for him. By forcing batters to chase pitches at a very high rate, he doesn’t have to throw as many strikes let alone throw pitches in more dangerous locations.
He relies on two very effective pitches, a fastball that carries a lot of spin and a change-up that creates an unusually high velocity differential relative to his fastball.
With both pitches, he matches up well against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 21st in slugging against the fastball and change-up from righties.
Daytime
The time is perfect for a first-five “under” play.
In their career, Giolito and Eovaldi both boast significantly stronger ERAs during the day — Giolito’s is 3.22 during the day compared to 4.92 at night and Eovaldi’s is 3.34 during the day compared to 4.64 at night.
Also note that both lineups are hitting much worse during the day than they are at night.
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, April 19, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Kevin Gausman
Philadelphia batters are very familiar with San Francisco starter Kevin Gausman, who used to pitch in their division as a member of the Atlanta Braves.
Gausman promises to struggle today for two reasons in particular.
One, he does not like pitching in Philadelphia. He is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA in the Phillies’ home ballpark.
Two, Philly batters have accrued a lot of success when facing Gausman.
Overall, they hit .270 and slug .431 in 137 at-bats against him.
Five different Phillies hit over .290 in at least five at-bats against Gausman. Four slug close to .600 or higher.
Watch out, for example, for Jean Segura. He’s 5-for-10 (.500) in his career against Gausman with two doubles.
Chase Anderson
Philadelphia starter Chase Anderson is built to handle a San Francisco lineup that will want to rely on a number of opposite-handed batters.
One of Anderson’s favorite pitches is his change-up, which is a classic weapon for a right-handed pitcher against a left-handed batter.
He’s thrown his change-up 49 times and given up one hit. His change-up is elusive given its unusually strong horizontal movement.
Anderson also leans on a fastball and cutter. He throws all three pitches with between 23 and 33 percent frequency.
He matches up well against a Giant lineup that hits .208 and slugs .302 against him in 106 career at-bats.
The Giants are also hitting below average against his three favorite pitches combined from righties.
Expect Anderson to help the Phillies maintain one of the MLB’s best home records (7-2).
Parlay Verdict
The time is, literally speaking, just right for the White Sox and Red Sox. Both starting pitchers promise to continue their positive form and to take advantage of the match-up.
At home, Philadelphia gets to see Gausman again who struggles against Philly batters and in Philadelphia. Chase Anderson, who matches up well with San Francisco’s lineup, will outperform Gausman.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Red Sox First-Half Under & Phillies First-Half ML
