MLB Parlay for Today at (+542) Features Underrated Pitchers
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET (FS1) at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Chicago?
Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox today.
Before his last start, Giolito yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three consecutive outings.
While I think Giolito returns to his strong form, let's consider whether his last outing should give us pause.
While he was crushed by the Astros in that outing, he was also crushed by them on June 17.
Houston's lineup poses a uniquely strong challenge to Giolito because it's good -- Houston ranks eighth in runs per game -- and because the Astros hit his favorite pitches from righties very well.
Giolito vs. Oriole Batters
Baltimore is a much softer test for Giolito.
In addition to ranking in the bottom half in runs per game, the Orioles rank do not match up well against Giolito.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, and slider.
These three pitches make up just over 97 percent of his arsenal.
The Orioles rank 21st against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Spenser Watkins starts for Baltimore tonight.
Watkins does some important things very well.
For example, he is great at starting ahead in the count.
He throws a first-pitch strike 65.1-percent of the time.
Statistically, this tendency increases his chances of finishing off an opposing batter.
While a given at-bat likely won't end with him striking out his opponent, he's none the worse for pitching for contact and inducing especially a lot of fly ball outs.
Watkins vs. White Sox Batters
Primarily, Watkins throws a fastball, cutter, and slider.
These three pitches make up almost 85 percent of his arsenal.
He matches up well against the White Sox in that they rank 26th against his favorite pitches from righties.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Dylan Bundy starts for Minnesota today.
Bundy mostly relies on three pitches: a fastball, slider, and changeup.
These are, by far, his three favorite pitches, and they make up over 80 percent his arsenal.
Crucially, Bundy reliably struggles on the road against teams that match up well against him in that they hit his pitches from righties very well.
When he faced Brewer and Blue Jay squads away from home, he yielded five earned runs in four innings or fewer both times.
Both teams benefitted from ranking top-seven in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Bundy vs. Astro Batters
Houston's lineup looks promising today because it ranks fourth in slugging against Bundy's favorite pitches from righties.
Among others, watch out for Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker.
All three batters slug well over .600 in at least eight career at-bats against Bundy.
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros tonight.
He merits pessimism because the Twins rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Arizona today?
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona tonight.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, Gallen is a strong "under" pitcher.
This is especially true on the road where the "under" hits in 70 percent of his starts.
The "under" has hit in each of Gallen's last three starts.
Gallen's uniquely superb form explains this on-going "under" streak.
He has allowed zero runs in each of these three starts, besting San Francisco, Colorado in hitters-friendly Coors Field, and Pittsburgh in the process.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
The Royals also start a hot pitcher today, Brady Singer.
Singer has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
Even more so than Gallen, he is thriving even against teams that match up superbly against him on paper.
For example, on August 14 he held the Dodgers to one hit and zero runs in six innings.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Orioles Under 8.5 at -110, Twins/Astors Over 7.5 at -125, Diamondbacks/Royals Under 7.5 at -115 at +542 odds with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET (FS1) at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Chicago?
Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox today.
Before his last start, Giolito yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three consecutive outings.
While I think Giolito returns to his strong form, let's consider whether his last outing should give us pause.
While he was crushed by the Astros in that outing, he was also crushed by them on June 17.
Houston's lineup poses a uniquely strong challenge to Giolito because it's good -- Houston ranks eighth in runs per game -- and because the Astros hit his favorite pitches from righties very well.
Giolito vs. Oriole Batters
Baltimore is a much softer test for Giolito.
In addition to ranking in the bottom half in runs per game, the Orioles rank do not match up well against Giolito.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, and slider.
These three pitches make up just over 97 percent of his arsenal.
The Orioles rank 21st against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Spenser Watkins starts for Baltimore tonight.
Watkins does some important things very well.
For example, he is great at starting ahead in the count.
He throws a first-pitch strike 65.1-percent of the time.
Statistically, this tendency increases his chances of finishing off an opposing batter.
While a given at-bat likely won't end with him striking out his opponent, he's none the worse for pitching for contact and inducing especially a lot of fly ball outs.
Watkins vs. White Sox Batters
Primarily, Watkins throws a fastball, cutter, and slider.
These three pitches make up almost 85 percent of his arsenal.
He matches up well against the White Sox in that they rank 26th against his favorite pitches from righties.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Dylan Bundy starts for Minnesota today.
Bundy mostly relies on three pitches: a fastball, slider, and changeup.
These are, by far, his three favorite pitches, and they make up over 80 percent his arsenal.
Crucially, Bundy reliably struggles on the road against teams that match up well against him in that they hit his pitches from righties very well.
When he faced Brewer and Blue Jay squads away from home, he yielded five earned runs in four innings or fewer both times.
Both teams benefitted from ranking top-seven in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Bundy vs. Astro Batters
Houston's lineup looks promising today because it ranks fourth in slugging against Bundy's favorite pitches from righties.
Among others, watch out for Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker.
All three batters slug well over .600 in at least eight career at-bats against Bundy.
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros tonight.
He merits pessimism because the Twins rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Arizona today?
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona tonight.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, Gallen is a strong "under" pitcher.
This is especially true on the road where the "under" hits in 70 percent of his starts.
The "under" has hit in each of Gallen's last three starts.
Gallen's uniquely superb form explains this on-going "under" streak.
He has allowed zero runs in each of these three starts, besting San Francisco, Colorado in hitters-friendly Coors Field, and Pittsburgh in the process.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
The Royals also start a hot pitcher today, Brady Singer.
Singer has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
Even more so than Gallen, he is thriving even against teams that match up superbly against him on paper.
For example, on August 14 he held the Dodgers to one hit and zero runs in six innings.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Orioles Under 8.5 at -110, Twins/Astors Over 7.5 at -125, Diamondbacks/Royals Under 7.5 at -115 at +542 odds with BetOnline
