Bet this MLB Parlay at (+324) on Monday
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Triston McKenzie
Cleveland will rely on right-handed youngster Triston McKenzie today.
McKenzie primarily throws a fastball that heat maps indicate he is pretty good at distributing evenly around the different parts of the strike zone.
His upside makes him likable in general. Relative to last year, his fastball plus his other pitches are enjoying an uptick in velocity.
This uptick in velocity plus his good pitch location probably explain why he is generating soft contact at a much higher rate.
White Sox Lineup
As has typically been the case in recent years, the White Sox have been much better against left-handed pitching.
They are at a strong disadvantage today because McKenzie is right-handed.
The disparity is drastic: whereas the White Sox slug .524 against left-handed starters, they slug .307 against right-handed ones.
One might still try to find hope for this lineup today because it ranks 15th in slugging against the fastball from righties.
15th isn't terrible. But we have the ability to see which pitchers' fastballs they were hitting.
A lot of the damage that they produced against the fastball from right-handed pitchers came against relatively vulnerable Tampa Bay and Detroit pitching, against guys who one normally expects little from anyways.
Dallas Keuchel
White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel is himself someone who one expects little from nowadays.
After yielding an atrocious 7.94 ERA in Spring Training, Keuchel's ERA is only marginally better now (5.40) in the regular season despite facing a Mariner team that has been awful against left-handed pitching.
Cleveland will do more damage to Keuchel because of its excellence against Keuchel's pitches.
He throws a cutter, sinker, and changeup with combined 85 percent frequency.
The Guardians rank sixth in slugging against those three pitches combined from lefties.
Watch out for Jose Ramirez who has a hit in all nine games he's played in so far.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. at Petco Park in San Diego
Nick Lodolo
One big reason why the starting pitcher advantage favors San Diego to a drastic extent is Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo.
Lodolo is trying to find any kind of footing in professional baseball right now.
His first start has offered little hope: he allowed five earned runs in four innings against Cleveland.
Typically, young pitchers offer more hope when their control is good.
In order to make it to the professional baseball in the first place, a pitcher will have good stuff.
It is his ability to limit walks and home runs which separates him from other young pitchers.
I really dislike the fact, therefore, that Lodolo conceded three walks and allowed two home runs in those four innings.
While one might want to chalk up that bad performance to nerves, there is a good explanation for his bad command.
His pitching arsenal isn't developed in its variety. Most notably, he throws a single pitch, his sinker, over 60 percent of the time.
While his sinker has more horizontal movement than other sinkers, opposing batters slammed this pitch extremely hard when they made contact with it.
It makes sense for Lodolo to want to avoid the strike zone when opponents are destroying his favorite offerings.
Padre Batters
San Diego's lineup looks strong today because it ranks sixth in slugging against lefties and Lodolo is a lefty.
Look out for Manny Machado, for example. He is slugging 1.000 against left-handed pitching so far.
Sean Manaea vs. Red Batters
Padre left-handed starter Sean Manaea is enjoying a strong start to the season, having allowed two earned runs in 13 innings.
He'll thrive against a Red lineup today that hasn't scored more than three runs in any of its last five games.
Red struggles help explain why its lineup ranks 17 spots behind San Diego's in slugging against left-handed pitching.
The Verdict
Cleveland's right-handed starting pitcher enjoys a strong edge against Chicago's struggling southpaw.
Likewise, the Padres own the superior southpaw and the lineup that is more built to hurt left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: Parlay Guardians ML at -108 & Padres RL at +120 at +324 odds with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Triston McKenzie
Cleveland will rely on right-handed youngster Triston McKenzie today.
McKenzie primarily throws a fastball that heat maps indicate he is pretty good at distributing evenly around the different parts of the strike zone.
His upside makes him likable in general. Relative to last year, his fastball plus his other pitches are enjoying an uptick in velocity.
This uptick in velocity plus his good pitch location probably explain why he is generating soft contact at a much higher rate.
White Sox Lineup
As has typically been the case in recent years, the White Sox have been much better against left-handed pitching.
They are at a strong disadvantage today because McKenzie is right-handed.
The disparity is drastic: whereas the White Sox slug .524 against left-handed starters, they slug .307 against right-handed ones.
One might still try to find hope for this lineup today because it ranks 15th in slugging against the fastball from righties.
15th isn't terrible. But we have the ability to see which pitchers' fastballs they were hitting.
A lot of the damage that they produced against the fastball from right-handed pitchers came against relatively vulnerable Tampa Bay and Detroit pitching, against guys who one normally expects little from anyways.
Dallas Keuchel
White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel is himself someone who one expects little from nowadays.
After yielding an atrocious 7.94 ERA in Spring Training, Keuchel's ERA is only marginally better now (5.40) in the regular season despite facing a Mariner team that has been awful against left-handed pitching.
Cleveland will do more damage to Keuchel because of its excellence against Keuchel's pitches.
He throws a cutter, sinker, and changeup with combined 85 percent frequency.
The Guardians rank sixth in slugging against those three pitches combined from lefties.
Watch out for Jose Ramirez who has a hit in all nine games he's played in so far.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. at Petco Park in San Diego
Nick Lodolo
One big reason why the starting pitcher advantage favors San Diego to a drastic extent is Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo.
Lodolo is trying to find any kind of footing in professional baseball right now.
His first start has offered little hope: he allowed five earned runs in four innings against Cleveland.
Typically, young pitchers offer more hope when their control is good.
In order to make it to the professional baseball in the first place, a pitcher will have good stuff.
It is his ability to limit walks and home runs which separates him from other young pitchers.
I really dislike the fact, therefore, that Lodolo conceded three walks and allowed two home runs in those four innings.
While one might want to chalk up that bad performance to nerves, there is a good explanation for his bad command.
His pitching arsenal isn't developed in its variety. Most notably, he throws a single pitch, his sinker, over 60 percent of the time.
While his sinker has more horizontal movement than other sinkers, opposing batters slammed this pitch extremely hard when they made contact with it.
It makes sense for Lodolo to want to avoid the strike zone when opponents are destroying his favorite offerings.
Padre Batters
San Diego's lineup looks strong today because it ranks sixth in slugging against lefties and Lodolo is a lefty.
Look out for Manny Machado, for example. He is slugging 1.000 against left-handed pitching so far.
Sean Manaea vs. Red Batters
Padre left-handed starter Sean Manaea is enjoying a strong start to the season, having allowed two earned runs in 13 innings.
He'll thrive against a Red lineup today that hasn't scored more than three runs in any of its last five games.
Red struggles help explain why its lineup ranks 17 spots behind San Diego's in slugging against left-handed pitching.
The Verdict
Cleveland's right-handed starting pitcher enjoys a strong edge against Chicago's struggling southpaw.
Likewise, the Padres own the superior southpaw and the lineup that is more built to hurt left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: Parlay Guardians ML at -108 & Padres RL at +120 at +324 odds with BetOnline
