White Sox vs Braves & Pirates vs Rockies: MLB Betting Picks And Predictions
Friday, August 30 2019
White Sox vs Braves at SunTrust Park
Chicago's Ivan Nova (9-10, 4.37 ERA) enjoys solid form, having allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last seven starts. In the one exception, he allowed two earned runs in Minnesota.
Given his success, the White Sox have won in six of his last seven starts including wins at +280, +190, +170, and +160. On the season, they yield +9.6 units in his starts, +11.6 both as an underdog and at night.
Nova's greatest assets have been placement and deception. During his positive stretch, (since July 22) six of his eight most frequent strike locations have been along a border of the strike zone.
This command is impressive given the fairly heavy movement of many of his pitches. One pitch that he's succeeded with is his change-up. He's upped its usage lately, relying on its strong arm-side tail and yielding a .200 slugging rate in August with it.
Regarding deception, he's been making the vertical and horizontal release points of his different pitches similar to each other, thus concealing their delivery and making it hard for the batter to know which pitch is approaching him.
Because he used to pitch in the NL, Nova has seen plenty of Atlanta batters and has them figured out. In 110 career at-bats facing him, they hit .236 and slug .318. Star Freddie Freeman, for example, is 2-for-9 (.222) with three strikeouts.
Atlanta's Max Fried (14-4, 4.03 ERA) is enduring a rough patch in which he's produced a couple of no-decisions. In his last two starts, he's surrendered eight runs in 10 innings combined.
Max Fried is basically your typical lefty. Most of the time, he throws a fastball that ranks in the 66th percentile in velocity, but only 12th in spin, which means that batters can easily track its location. His fastball also lacks deception in that its horizontal release point differs vastly from that of any other of his pitches, meaning that batters can see it coming. Because of the weaknesses built into his fastball, opponents generally hit it well. This pitch yields a .335 opposing BA.
The White Sox match up well with Fried because they are notoriously stronger against left-handed pitching. They slug .456 against southpaw starters compared to .372 against right-handed ones. Jose Abreu, for example, slugs .601 against the former.
I'll take the one-run cushion just because the price is so cheap.
Best Bet: White Sox RL at -110 odds with 5Dimes
Pirates vs Rockies
Friday, August 30 2019 at Coors Field
Looking at how Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has been pitching, it appears that he might do the work for 'over' bettors all by himself. In each of his last four starts, he's allowed six or seven runs. He's failed to make it past the second inning in his last two starts.
An interesting aspect of his run-conceding trend is that the exceptionally hitters-friendly quality of Coors Field doesn't present an excuse for him as three of those four starts came on the road. He hasn't even been allowing homers. But hitters have been generating hard contact against him at a high rate -- well above his season average in three of his past four starts.
In general, what makes Senzatela so vulnerable is his predictability with a low-quality pitch. He relies on his fastball to the degree that a typical reliever does, throwing it 65 percent of the time.
Despite his lack of variety, he's a starter whom opposing lineups will see multiple times (in case they don't knock him out very early). His fastball ranks in the 15th percentile in spin and carries distinct release points with the result that batters track the movement of and discern the delivery of this pitch very well. As a result, opponents slug .518 against it on the season and Senzatela's last two opponents each slugged over .700 against it.
Plus, the match-up favors Pittsburgh as Senzatela struggles especially against left-handed batters. They hit .344 and slug .543 against him.
The Pirates boast relatively high-quality hitters who are productive from the left side of the plate. For example, one of their best batters lately has been lefty Colin Moran, who carries an eight-game hitting streak into tonight's contest. Moran is 2-for-2 against Senzatela.
Pittsburgh starter Dario Agrazal (3-3, 4.41 ERA) has likewise suffered consistently as a starter lately. He's yielded an ERA over seven in each of his past four starts.
Agrazal is primarily a fly ball-inducing pitcher. In other words, he generates ground balls at a rate below 40 percent. The chief aim of a fly ball pitcher is to make sure that opposing batted balls stay fly balls and don't leave the ballpark for a home run.
During Agrazal's poor four-start stretch, he's allowed seven home runs. This tendency is worrisome in hitters-friendly Coors Field which witnesses a lot of home runs in its high-altitude climate. Fly ball pitchers anyhow tend to struggle there since balls leave the park more easily, which is why the Rockies like to stock up on ground ball-inducing pitchers such as German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.
As Agrazal is a young starting pitcher who also happens to be struggling, Coors Field is surely the last place where he wants to be. Pitching in Denver is tough given its unique climate and this will be his first time in Coors Field.
More specifically, Agrazal leans heavily on a sinker and Rockie batters slug exceptionally well against this pitch at home. They haven't faced him, but have been hitting well in general, averaging six runs in their past three games. Watch out for Nolan Arenado, who's hitting .444 and slugging .778 in his past seven days.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 8.5 runs at -103 odds at Pinnacle
Friday, August 30 2019
White Sox vs Braves at SunTrust Park
Chicago's Ivan Nova (9-10, 4.37 ERA) enjoys solid form, having allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last seven starts. In the one exception, he allowed two earned runs in Minnesota.
Given his success, the White Sox have won in six of his last seven starts including wins at +280, +190, +170, and +160. On the season, they yield +9.6 units in his starts, +11.6 both as an underdog and at night.
Nova's greatest assets have been placement and deception. During his positive stretch, (since July 22) six of his eight most frequent strike locations have been along a border of the strike zone.
This command is impressive given the fairly heavy movement of many of his pitches. One pitch that he's succeeded with is his change-up. He's upped its usage lately, relying on its strong arm-side tail and yielding a .200 slugging rate in August with it.
Regarding deception, he's been making the vertical and horizontal release points of his different pitches similar to each other, thus concealing their delivery and making it hard for the batter to know which pitch is approaching him.
Because he used to pitch in the NL, Nova has seen plenty of Atlanta batters and has them figured out. In 110 career at-bats facing him, they hit .236 and slug .318. Star Freddie Freeman, for example, is 2-for-9 (.222) with three strikeouts.
Atlanta's Max Fried (14-4, 4.03 ERA) is enduring a rough patch in which he's produced a couple of no-decisions. In his last two starts, he's surrendered eight runs in 10 innings combined.
Max Fried is basically your typical lefty. Most of the time, he throws a fastball that ranks in the 66th percentile in velocity, but only 12th in spin, which means that batters can easily track its location. His fastball also lacks deception in that its horizontal release point differs vastly from that of any other of his pitches, meaning that batters can see it coming. Because of the weaknesses built into his fastball, opponents generally hit it well. This pitch yields a .335 opposing BA.
The White Sox match up well with Fried because they are notoriously stronger against left-handed pitching. They slug .456 against southpaw starters compared to .372 against right-handed ones. Jose Abreu, for example, slugs .601 against the former.
I'll take the one-run cushion just because the price is so cheap.
Best Bet: White Sox RL at -110 odds with 5Dimes
Pirates vs Rockies
Friday, August 30 2019 at Coors Field
Looking at how Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has been pitching, it appears that he might do the work for 'over' bettors all by himself. In each of his last four starts, he's allowed six or seven runs. He's failed to make it past the second inning in his last two starts.
An interesting aspect of his run-conceding trend is that the exceptionally hitters-friendly quality of Coors Field doesn't present an excuse for him as three of those four starts came on the road. He hasn't even been allowing homers. But hitters have been generating hard contact against him at a high rate -- well above his season average in three of his past four starts.
In general, what makes Senzatela so vulnerable is his predictability with a low-quality pitch. He relies on his fastball to the degree that a typical reliever does, throwing it 65 percent of the time.
Despite his lack of variety, he's a starter whom opposing lineups will see multiple times (in case they don't knock him out very early). His fastball ranks in the 15th percentile in spin and carries distinct release points with the result that batters track the movement of and discern the delivery of this pitch very well. As a result, opponents slug .518 against it on the season and Senzatela's last two opponents each slugged over .700 against it.
Plus, the match-up favors Pittsburgh as Senzatela struggles especially against left-handed batters. They hit .344 and slug .543 against him.
The Pirates boast relatively high-quality hitters who are productive from the left side of the plate. For example, one of their best batters lately has been lefty Colin Moran, who carries an eight-game hitting streak into tonight's contest. Moran is 2-for-2 against Senzatela.
Pittsburgh starter Dario Agrazal (3-3, 4.41 ERA) has likewise suffered consistently as a starter lately. He's yielded an ERA over seven in each of his past four starts.
Agrazal is primarily a fly ball-inducing pitcher. In other words, he generates ground balls at a rate below 40 percent. The chief aim of a fly ball pitcher is to make sure that opposing batted balls stay fly balls and don't leave the ballpark for a home run.
During Agrazal's poor four-start stretch, he's allowed seven home runs. This tendency is worrisome in hitters-friendly Coors Field which witnesses a lot of home runs in its high-altitude climate. Fly ball pitchers anyhow tend to struggle there since balls leave the park more easily, which is why the Rockies like to stock up on ground ball-inducing pitchers such as German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.
As Agrazal is a young starting pitcher who also happens to be struggling, Coors Field is surely the last place where he wants to be. Pitching in Denver is tough given its unique climate and this will be his first time in Coors Field.
More specifically, Agrazal leans heavily on a sinker and Rockie batters slug exceptionally well against this pitch at home. They haven't faced him, but have been hitting well in general, averaging six runs in their past three games. Watch out for Nolan Arenado, who's hitting .444 and slugging .778 in his past seven days.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 8.5 runs at -103 odds at Pinnacle
