Which baseball stats do you mostly focus on?

[Gyno]

??

 

[RetroVK]

day of the week

 

[Gyno]

day of the week

LMFAO!!!!!

 

[tru]

day of the week

Not as good as tha days rest stat

 

[Gyno]

Haha..

 

[The Capping Genius]

Pitchers after a loss

 

[orangemonk]

WHIP is probably my favorite pitcher stat as it's easy to access anywhere and gives a relatively telling story of the pitcher's ability to prevent giving up baserunners, although the obvious and clear fault with it is it doesn't give what types of hits those are, as a home run and a broken bat single are both the same. xFIP combined with the other teams split wOBA is probably a better way to analyze at a basic level.

 

[Gyno]

I learned in 2006 that whip was more important than era.. Definitely helped..

A good simple stat is l/r splits..

 

[scdoggy]

Bullpen numbers

 

[BenchCoach]

Sargarin ratings for starting pitchers

 

[gsro]

WHIP as well as Pitcher versus Batters...

gotta make sure to take out the non-current players though..

 

[gsro]

days rest is huge i think. Humans are a creature of habit and if you, for the most part, throw it off slightly by giving the person an extra day or a day less it can throw off their routine. Certainly did for a buddy a mine during college. I think Doc Halladay was someone who struggled compared to his regular scheduled starts with extra days rest oddly enough

 

[Gyno]

days rest is huge i think. Humans are a creature of habit and if you, for the most part, throw it off slightly by giving the person an extra day or a day less it can throw off their routine. Certainly did for a buddy a mine during college. I think Doc Halladay was someone who struggled compared to his regular scheduled starts with extra days rest oddly enough

agree 100%

 

[detroit187]

hitters numbers vs that particular pitcher

 

[HUNT]

All stats relating to first five innings. Fuck bullpens.

Weather/wind/whip

3 w's

Lead off man obp too for tt's.

 

[gsro]

All stats relating to first five innings. Fuck bullpens.

Weather/wind/whip

3 w's

Lead off man obp too for tt's.

agree, ballpark factors in as well...ballparks + type of pitcher + weather = totals assistance

 

[HUNT]

Yup.

 

[Dollaz]

The stat that has helped me the most is really focusing on the L/R split vs. the starting pitcher. But, I really consider more than just who the starting pitcher is nowadays bc I think you can get really good value on a team with a so so starter and a good bullpen vs. an ace pitcher and a crappy bullpen.

 

[Coverdatspred]

I tend to focus the most attention towards current form. I will look at both starting pitchers era and whip for the whole season then I forget those numbers and look at how they have performed in their last 3-5 outings. You can catch a great pitcher in bad recent form and catch a bad pitcher in great recent form.

To be totally honest though you can really get yourself carried away in baseball with stats. There are just too many of them and you can sway yourself in just about any direction and have stats to back it up. I think a lot of betting bases has to do with your feel of things during ebbs and flows of a season. It's been said many a time on this forum. Baseball isn't about picking winners as much as getting value out of your lines over the long haul. You won't make a profit over the course of the season betting the big favorite.

 

[gsro]

I tend to focus the most attention towards current form. I will look at both starting pitchers era and whip for the whole season then I forget those numbers and look at how they have performed in their last 3-5 outings. You can catch a great pitcher in bad recent form and catch a bad pitcher in great recent form.

To be totally honest though you can really get yourself carried away in baseball with stats. There are just too many of them and you can sway yourself in just about any direction and have stats to back it up. I think a lot of betting bases has to do with your feel of things during ebbs and flows of a season. It's been said many a time on this forum. Baseball isn't about picking winners as much as getting value out of your lines over the long haul. You won't make a profit over the course of the season betting the big favorite.

do you mean from a normalcy persepctive for both regression and improvement?

Example:
Pitcher A has a career Whip of 1.45 and Era of 3.85
YTD for the season is Whip 1.40 and 3.5
Current form is 1.15 and 2.25


Are you looking at this pitcher, in his current form, to regress back to his normal self? and vice versa

 

[Paulie The Vig]

I tend to focus the most attention towards current form. I will look at both starting pitchers era and whip for the whole season then I forget those numbers and look at how they have performed in their last 3-5 outings. You can catch a great pitcher in bad recent form and catch a bad pitcher in great recent form.

To be totally honest though you can really get yourself carried away in baseball with stats. There are just too many of them and you can sway yourself in just about any direction and have stats to back it up. I think a lot of betting bases has to do with your feel of things during ebbs and flows of a season. It's been said many a time on this forum. Baseball isn't about picking winners as much as getting value out of your lines over the long haul. You won't make a profit over the course of the season betting the big favorite.

Excellent post agree with everything you said. It's such a long season and current form plays a big role.

gsro
I can't answer for him but I believe you stay with his current form. It's like a winning streak you never know when it's going to end.

 

[gsro]

Excellent post agree with everything you said. It's such a long season and current form plays a big role.

gsro
I can't answer for him but I believe you stay with his current form. It's like a winning streak you never know when it's going to end.

my assumption, and this is the way i would see it is that i enjoy betting against it. Based on my example above, the guy is goign to regress back sooner or later. difficult part is when and what is the cut off? And that's where the ball park, pitcher/batter numbers and weather come into play.

 

[Coverdatspred]

do you mean from a normalcy persepctive for both regression and improvement?

Example:
Pitcher A has a career Whip of 1.45 and Era of 3.85
YTD for the season is Whip 1.40 and 3.5
Current form is 1.15 and 2.25


Are you looking at this pitcher, in his current form, to regress back to his normal self? and vice versa

In baseball I'm more of a streak player. There are some instances that can point toward regression but mostly that's relying on a gut feeling. In your example I'd put the most weight in my capping on the pitchers current form. Point being you might get a line in your favor because the public will look more towards the career numbers line and season numbers. If I take a loss on a pitcher who is in good current form but pitches closer to his worse career numbers I make a note of it and tread lightly in his next start.

 

[Coverdatspred]

my assumption, and this is the way i would see it is that i enjoy betting against it. Based on my example above, the guy is goign to regress back sooner or later. difficult part is when and what is the cut off? And that's where the ball park, pitcher/batter numbers and weather come into play.

I just feel you get the most value line wise by riding the hot streaks of a decent to bad pitcher and the cold streaks of a good to great pitcher.

 

[tee*dub]

Trending SP's, good and bad weighted based on lineup they have faced. Bb per 9 significantly off career average will give you good starting point.

 

[nbafan88]

hitters numbers vs that particular pitcher

this... and pitcher/ump splits

and pitchers performance in a particular ballpark....

baseball-reference is my summer reading material ... all these new pitchers make it tough though

so much work