When do you shoot for a middle?

[BigTymePlayer25]

Hey y’all thanks for making this a great forum...

I’m just getting comfortable betting some openers and would like some advice about middling.... when do you consider doing it?

For example I was able to get Georgia-3 -120 on Sunday night... it’s at -6.5 now... do I take a shot with Florida+7 -120???

Also I got Middle TN at -3 and can now get Charlotte at +3.5

Any thoughts, thanks fellas

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Also got Michigan-17 and now it’s -21... but holy cow I don’t think I can put $ on Maryland

 

[B.A.R.]

Will chime in later.

 

[scarf31]

Hey y’all thanks for making this a great forum...

I’m just getting comfortable betting some openers and would like some advice about middling.... when do you consider doing it?

For example I was able to get Georgia-3 -120 on Sunday night... it’s at -6.5 now... do I take a shot with Florida+7 -120???

Also I got Middle TN at -3 and can now get Charlotte at +3.5

Any thoughts, thanks fellas

couple questions...are you looking to bet both sides same amount? Looking solely for a full middle or partial middle?

Is it to attempt to increase bankroll hitting a few middles for the season or because or the angle of knowing you beat CLV (closing line value)?

There are no wrong answers, but how to answer that question depends on at least a few of those factors.

Good topic.

 

[scarf31]

Personally, I only middle for purposes of an injury in a game (betting 2nd half potentially) or to lock in a profit on futures. As an example, I bet Minny to win Big 10 preseason solely for middling purposes as I got +5500

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Thanks Scarf... I’ve never middled college ball but love doing it in the nfl around the key numbers of 3 & 7...

Seems like I’ve been losing a lot of Bets this season where ive had good CLV so that’s got me to thinking of middling, buying some back etc

 

[HUNT]

Hey y’all thanks for making this a great forum...

I’m just getting comfortable betting some openers and would like some advice about middling.... when do you consider doing it?

For example I was able to get Georgia-3 -120 on Sunday night... it’s at -6.5 now... do I take a shot with Florida+7 -120???

Also I got Middle TN at -3 and can now get Charlotte at +3.5

Any thoughts, thanks fellas

Never.

 

[HUNT]

Never.

I should clarify...

With spreads. Just my opinion.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Thanks Hunt!

 

[RetroVK]

Generally speaking 20 cents juice on both sides is a very tough way to make a living on middles.

I think I am more apt to middle when it is my original plan

The basic question to answer and it isn't easy to answer, is which decision has more EV.

I make a lot of plays. One issue I have with going for the middle on my good line moves is that all the games dont move towards my made line. I am left with my bad bets. Still, if I determine the middle has more value than my side, i should go for the middle.

Most of my football middles are where i feel a line is way off and put two units on it with intent of betting a unit back for the middle after the move. Or a game where i have no opinion even though i am
Ahead of injury news. I may bet then prepublic injury news with intent to middle. My other football middle attempt i often try is when i cam do it at halftime when i like the other side ag halftime. Bet utep minus 4 but Alabama looks better first half and utep is up 7. I will go for the middle at halftime

And you usually want the middle attempt around a key number in football.

There is probably a math answer but i sont know it

 

[gps_3]

Because I don't play openers, usually my only opportunity to middle is with halftime bets. And in those instances, I generally only bet if there's a way I can win both, but can't lose both

 

[D-Woww]

I like to try to do this when the correct in-game opportunity comes up.

For instance, when OSU was struggling early 2h vs wiscy, the line dropped to osu -6.5 in game. I pounced. A few mins later, the line was OSU -14.5. I took Wisconsin +14.5.

In retrospect, this looks bad. I got an amazing number (-6.5 at any point was a joke) and should have kept the winner. But I will take this opportunity anytime when I get to cross 7, 10 and 14 in one bet. I ended up losing the juice, but honestly I would do this again. I look for those key numbers.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks for the thoughts fellas.... like i said above i usually only play middles in nfl not college ball and only around the key numbers of 3 and 7. I remember reading a stat somewhere that said 16% of NFL games land on 3 and 10% land on 7.....

i think the only reason i'm considering cfb middles is due to the fact I've lost lots of cfb games this year where i've had good CLV so i definitely have some recency bias...... VK makes a great point, I don't want to be left with the bets that have only moved against me... may buy back 1/2 unit on FLA+7 but who knows LOL

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

I like to try to do this when the correct in-game opportunity comes up.

For instance, when OSU was struggling early 2h vs wiscy, the line dropped to osu -6.5 in game. I pounced. A few mins later, the line was OSU -14.5. I took Wisconsin +14.5.

In retrospect, this looks bad. I got an amazing number (-6.5 at any point was a joke) and should have kept the winner. But I will take this opportunity anytime when I get to cross 7, 10 and 14 in one bet. I ended up losing the juice, but honestly I would do this again. I look for those key numbers.

I like your thoughts D-WOWW....for example on MNF i had Dolphins +14 and they got out to a 14-0 lead...i could have gotten PITT at a PK but i chickened out and didnt move fast enough...

 

[D-Woww]

I like your thoughts D-WOWW....for example on MNF i had Dolphins +14 and they got out to a 14-0 lead...i could have gotten PITT at a PK but i chickened out and didnt move fast enough...

yes, I would have loved that middle. that's the best when you take a big underdog at + a lot of points and they get off to a hot start and u can get the fav at right around pk