Whats the best way to play this?

[Tito]

I need help guys, since I don't do the futures/hedging often enough to know the best way to play this...


Last week, I took Seattle to win the NFC (-138) to win 400, so I've got that going for me…to protect myself, I want to take the Packers in some way to ensure I don't get crushed.

My thinking was to take the GB ML at 275 for 150, which would cover the majority of my losses if Seattle were to lose. However, while I have just started to look at these games for Sunday, I lean to GB w the points at first glance. If I was playing this game w/out this future, as of now I would take the Pack +7. So maybe I should just take the Pack +pts for 200 and hope for a Seattle fg win? Which I could see…As long as Rodgers is healthy enough, I think the Seahawks secondary can be had. A healthy Rodgers is the biq question though (or close to healthy).


Thoughts on how to play this? I'm confusing myself…please someone w more intelligence then me give me some clarity?

 

[Schrute]

I dont think Rodgers is healthy and I don't think the Pack are winning. They could keep it within 7

So you have 552-400

100 to win 275 on Pack ML
220-200 on Pack +7

Seattle crushes them and you win 80 bucks
Pack win and you lose 77 bucks
Seattle wins by 1-6 and you win 500 bucks
Seattle wins by 7 and you win 300 bucks

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I'm waiting to hedge in the Super Bowl but that's me.

 

[Schrute]

I'm waiting to hedge in the Super Bowl but that's me.

Well his bet is Seattle to win the NFC so if he's gonna hedge it, he would be better off doing it this week IMO

 

[JumpOnBoard]

LOL, I'll go back to bed.

 

[HUNT]

Take the guaranteed cash. Always. Do half on +points and half on ml. Jmo. Gl.

 

[CASH]

Take the guaranteed cash. Always. Do half on +points and half on ml. Jmo. Gl.

I agree with this but that's how I play futures , guarantee walking away with profit...

You need to decide if you want the action or the cash....

 

[Tito]

Ok, thanks guys...appreciate the feedback...I want to guarantee myself money coming away from it, but at the same time I need to determine where Rodgers is w his calf. Hard to do, but if I get a better idea on that it might change my play. If he is healthier, he can beat this secondary. And keep this game close. Just not sure the calf can improve that much in a week.

 

[ArizonaKid]

What was the point of the bet in taking a favorite at - money if your just gonna hedge ?

I would guess you thought winning vs Carolina was a given setting up Seattle -138 ML in the NFC Championship, which is much better than the -300 to -320 that it currently is. I would just enjoy the price advantage that you have gained.

Good Luck

 

[D-Woww]

Yeah I am a fan of hedging but right now you should just let it ride. It's one thing if you had Ohio State at 50-1, but you're laying chalk already. Now you have very good value in comparison to where the line is so just take it

 

[Tito]

that was the point of taking it in the first place, yes, as I explained in my thread from last week. I was pretty sure that the Seahawks would win, so I thought I should take it at -138 instead of the much steeper price that it would probably be. Which was the right move.

I had maybe the worst single day of sports betting last Sunday, so I'm less confident and more interested in making sure I come away w $.
i guess I am thinking that maybe if Rodgers is healthier (a big if & hard to get a definitive answer), they have a chance to keep this game close if not win. I think the Hawks are very good, but the secondary is a little susceptible.

 

[HUNT]

Do your thing bro. Don't lose confidence. Shake it off.

 

[Tito]

thanks hunt, appreciate it bud…i'm trying to forget it and just focus on ending the season well. but i got fucking crusssshhhed last week. but yeah, does me no good to dwell on it...:shake:

 

[Tito]

I'm gonna look this game over, in more detail, then decide wtf to do here…thanks again guys for the help.