What would be your strategy to optimize ROI from a "Free Play Bonus"

[carolinablue]

Interested in hearing what you guys think about this one, as I know everyone has an opinion so looking forward to another great discussion in the thread.

Not looking to get into a debate about the merit of "free plays" as the context of this thread is the following..

All hypothetical and in good fun of course....Say someone received the max of $1k in free plays from BOL and say they don't reload during the cfb season and use the initial deposit to play the entire course of the season so 6x rollover is a non-issue based on number of plays, amount per play, etc. What would be your strategy for getting the greatest return from this bonus when all is said and done.

Assume, for entertainment purposes only of course, that 1 unit is 300, so for example, if you were gonna use the entire $1k in week 1, you could basically make up to 3 plays max (330/300).

Sample thought starters....

Would you focus on going after dog plays so you have the points to play with? Or maybe take a shot at a couple ML dog lines? Would you be conservative and focus on plays that would be part of your normal card whether they be fav or dog? Or would you play those that just missed the cut? Or would you go against "public plays" (not a fan of that term but I know most understand what I mean)? Or would you jump on a bandwagon? Make a homer play? Or would you sit on it for a while and pick your spot later in the season? etc etc.

No right or wrong answers here, just thought it would be a fun discussion because again I know the views on this vary widely, so hope to hear from all sides on this one.

CB

 

[RetroVK]

If it is akin to money, I treat it as money.

 

[Alan Tongue]

If you were going to use it across the season then treat it as normal, playing normal wagers, especially considering the 6x rollover

 

[carolinablue]

If it is akin to money, I treat it as money.

Well said

 

[carolinablue]

If you were going to use it across the season then treat it as normal, playing normal wagers, especially considering the 6x rollover

Thanks for the input...Didn't want to sway opinions either way by stating my position right out of the gate but this is how I approach it definitely.

In the past when I was younger and greedier (more short term focused) for lack of a better term, I used try to be "too smart" and try to win big on crazy ML dogs and such and before I knew it, there it went haha. I now treat it as a normal part of my investment and nothing less but I always like to hear what other guys think because I know some guys do approach it differently. Thanks for the input!

 

[GWarner27]

i try to use it on unlikely plays because if you lose the free play it's basically like no harm done, but if you win you don't get the money put back into your account as you only collect the proceeds.

For MLB it's fairly easy for me so I wait for a big underdog ML to play, but for NCAAB season and others that I play spreads I just use it as if it were real money

 

[MR FAMOUS]

The more games you play the less likely your chances to win.

Free Play is always based on multiple rollovers because thats how they get the money back. Assume you play for 6 weeks. If you play the whole dime on one play, then you can really find one good game each week that you see a better chance to win over the whole card. If you can win with any solid foundation that you've won with in the past, then you could actually come out a winner. IF you go 3-3 you still have the dime (less vig).

If you go 4-2 or better, you're happy. You have to win the first bet to survive, but since its free play, why agonize by piecing-off small bets?

BOL this season. Take North Carolina +3 the first week.

 

[M.W.]

Actually, it turns out that you should treat these amounts differently.

Imagine you have a $440 free play. If you flip a coin to choose a play at -110, you have a 50 percent chance of winning $400, and a 50% chance of winning zero. Expected value of free play is $200 in real money.

Now, if you play a big favorite at -500 and you win, you get just $88 without even considering the possibility that you lose.

Then, imagine you randomly select 8 three-team parlays of -110 plays paying 6:1 on your wagers of $55 each. The average result is one win, which will give you $330 in real money.

So, you should play longshots.

 

[aplous]

5 team dog ML parlay....if it's free money use it as a lotto ticket?

 

[ArbyMelt]

Actually, it turns out that you should treat these amounts differently.

Imagine you have a $440 free play. If you flip a coin to choose a play at -110, you have a 50 percent chance of winning $400, and a 50% chance of winning zero. Expected value of free play is $200 in real money.

Now, if you play a big favorite at -500 and you win, you get just $88 without even considering the possibility that you lose.

Then, imagine you randomly select 8 three-team parlays of -110 plays paying 6:1 on your wagers of $55 each. The average result is one win, which will give you $330 in real money.

So, you should play longshots.

I always do the 8 three-team parlay with my free plays. No doubt the best ROI. Some books will only allow 2-teamers which reduces your return, and some don't even allow parlays.