What I've Learned This Season

B

Blue_Chip

Money Addict
Similar to the weekly threads in the NFL forum, I want this thread to be the compilation of what CTG members learned while betting the bases this year. I think there was a similar thread to this in the college hoops forum at the end of the year, and some great thoughts and lessons were shared. I realize we still have postseason and there are five games remaining in the regular season, but I just placed my last regular season bet tonight so I figured I'd get this started.

  • Use caution when betting on bad teams. The best and worst teams each year win and lose 60 games; it is the other 40 games that separate the losers from the champions. With 162 games in a season, there will be angles, trends, situations in which to bet on a team that is clearly inferior on paper, but using caution when doing this is beneficial. Most guys here are smart bettors and wait for what he deems the correct price that justifies a bet on a dog, but even when that situation arises or the price is right know that in the end you are still betting on an inferior team. Only about 40% of my plays were at plus money, so I do tend to bet faves, but I have also won a decent amount betting dogs. As I post this thread, I am likely going to lose a nickel on Baltimore after they blew a 6-0 lead. Of course, I am pissed but to say I am surprised by the inferior team losing tonight would be a lie.
  • Always get the best price. I learned this lesson a year ago when I began betting baseball, but I think this is worth mentioning every year. This seems like common sense but so many of my friends that want to be profitable bettors do not want to go to Wal-Mart to use Moneygram to deposit funds into Matchbook. They instead stick with their local who charges them 20-60 cents more than Matchbook. If you are going to place eight bets all year or are betting for fun, then by all means remain with your local out of convenience. But if you want to make money over the course of the season, then fund an account with a book that will give you decent lines.
 
What I've learned this season:

  • If you like doing a ton of research, like #'s and not afraid of doing a lot of homework...Baseball betting is for you.
  • If you want to bet every day for 6 months...Baseball betting is for you.
  • If you want to take some of the worst beats of your life...Baseball betting is for you.
However, If your disciplined and armed with good data...I think baseball is the best sport to bet and can be the most profitable.

  • Lastly, if you want to learn how to cap baseball and get the best info possible...hang around this forum.
See ya here next year....:cheers:
 
Shortline said:
What I've learned this season:

  • If you like doing a ton of research, like #'s and not afraid of doing a lot of homework...Baseball betting is for you.
  • If you want to bet every day for 6 months...Baseball betting is for you.
  • If you want to take some of the worst beats of your life...Baseball betting is for you.
However, If your disciplined and armed with good data...I think baseball is the best sport to bet and can be the most profitable.

  • Lastly, if you want to learn how to cap baseball and get the best info possible...hang around this forum.
See ya here next year....:cheers:
Click to expand...

Please teach me.I suck at this sport.
 
stay away from idiot managers
-- they will find a way to fuck you both ways defensively and offensively- whether it being mismanaging the pen, or bringing in the wrong pinch hitter-not bunting with 2 on no out- (etc)

certain pitchers progress/regress as the season goes on.
they tend to have certain tendencies that holds true year after year
theres a thread on it, but certain pitchers either start out hot in the first half and then return true to form after the AS break... or vice versa, having a horrible april/may then once playoff season comes around theyre throwing their best stuff of the year and on point.
whether it being 43 year old men, like the gambler kenny rogers, who would be first example that comes to mind as far as regressing...
mark buehrle as well (not age-wise but he fits the mold)
on the other side of the ball greinke and ben sheets come to mind, after usualyl struggling early on in the season. theres a lot of others.

the must read for april bettors thread is money... thanks for whoever made that.
and held very true to form this year. will definitely be looking at this angle more to start the season in 09

probably a lot more but all i have at the moment....
 
Blue_Chip said:
  • Use caution when betting on bad teams. The best and worst teams each year win and lose 60 games; it is the other 40 games that separate the losers from the champions. With 162 games in a season, there will be angles, trends, situations in which to bet on a team that is clearly inferior on paper, but using caution when doing this is beneficial. Most guys here are smart bettors and wait for what he deems the correct price that justifies a bet on a dog, but even when that situation arises or the price is right know that in the end you are still betting on an inferior team. Only about 40% of my plays were at plus money, so I do tend to bet faves, but I have also won a decent amount betting dogs. As I post this thread, I am likely going to lose a nickel on Baltimore after they blew a 6-0 lead. Of course, I am pissed but to say I am surprised by the inferior team losing tonight would be a lie.
Click to expand...

Definitely agree with this one.

I learned this last year trying to pick and choose when to play pitt/wash as big dogs and they would somehow find a way to blow the game no matter the situation... (although they did cash big a few times, lost many more)

Normally by pen mismanagment, and this is why i hate the 2H of the season of teams that are already out of the race, because managers bring in young talent or some gas can just for the sake of "trying something new".

and the worst part about it is, you cant cap shit like that.
if they make a stupid spontaneous decision mid-game, your fucked.
what can you do when youre up 3-1 in the 8th and manny acta decides to bring in someone just called up from AA last night and has never pitched in the MLB?

so like you said, best thing is just to avoid bad teams altogether.... and stick to teams that are motivationally driven to win and still playing to win day in, day out.

:shake:
 
Stay away from betting the first game of a series. Watch it and pay attention to the result, compare those results to the pitching matchup in game three and you often have an easier time figuring out which team has more urgency in game 2.

I'm just going to game two's next year and it should be money.
 
brewer said:
should. they have the best coach in the game. and best team on paper.
Click to expand...

No should, are.

IMO the biggest threat to the Cubs would be facing Philly in a 1st round 5-game series (the short series factor the biggest threat to tipping the Cubs mindset into self-defeat mode, because imo this season only the Cubs beat the Cubs prior to the WS), and by dint of what the Cubs are currently doing to the Mets they are avoiding that scenario (given who the Mets & Philly each face last, a win by the Cubs tomorrow will, again imo, wrap up the AL East for Philly).

Milwaukee? the Cubs have the wood on them, and could only meet in the NLCS. They'd pretty much wipe the floor with them in a 7 game series.

The Mets? the Cubs are currently dealing to this team on their own turf while themselves playing at 80-90%. Mets hold no fears for the Cubbies.

LA? since aquiring Manny, LA is 4-10 SU on the road vs teams not from the NL West. LA is not going to have HFA for any series they play in the p.s. They're currently gaining favour in the eyes of many as a playoff darkhorse because they're beating up other NL Weak ... excuse me, West ... teams. Wonderful. That's exactly what Colorado did last year (lucking upon AZ in the NLCS), and look at the traction amongst the masses they garnered heading into the WS - noone talked of Boston whipping their asses (cept some of us Boston fans), all it was was Rockies value this, Rockies value that. IMO NL West teams suck dick, and none making the p.s. have any long term value. They'll give away HFA in the 1st round to a Philly team who has already defeated them 4 straight in Philly since Manny got on board. While no NL West opposition has seen fit to walk Manny like they so willingly walked Bonds, that's not going to be the case come the p.s. Expect teams to willingly walk in a run if Manny comes to the plate with bases loaded, he is going to be given nothing to hit. LA scored 18 runs in 7 games against Cubs pitching this season, while going 0-3 SU in Chicago and 2-2 SU at home. While they didnt have Manny then, it should be noted they did take a winning season record into their clashes in Chicago. They weren't a team playing bad sub-.500 ball that the Cubs "inevitably beat up on", they were a competitive team the Cubs stopped dead in their tracks. With Manny being given nothing to hit, what changes if they meet in the p.s.?

Philly? of the teams mentioned here Philly is the one to have given the Cubs the most fits this season - 4 wins to 3 losses (none by more than 2 runs). Not a great sample of games, but their most recent meetings were late August in Chicago, and the Phils split that 4 game series.
Problem for the Phils is what cost them last p.s. - their offense can go in the tank at a moments notice, and the Cubs aren't lacking in pitching. That problem gives LA it's chance for an upset in Round 1.


Everything going to order on paper in the remaining reg. season games, Philly meets LA and the Cubs will meet the Mets (the WC winner). Cubs get their easiest opponent of the other 3 teams for the dangerous short 5 game series while 1 of the harder foes is eliminated for their benefit (from their perspective, I'd imagine they hope LA makes it through).
 
Cubs are the most consistent team in the NL. They've been rock solid all season. No weaknesses and they have a killer instinct.They have earned the right to be the favorite. However I think the NL is a crapshoot. NYM,PHI, and the LAD are all as good as the Cubs when they are at their best. None of them are consistent, but the playoffs are just a few games so anything can happen.

The Phillies are a very tough matchup for the Cubs and have had Chicago's number for quite sometime. 4-3 is misleading. The Cubs were given a game by the umpires in the last game at Philadelphia. The Cubs came back on the Phils when Hamels pitched 7 strong innings and the bullpen blew a game after playing two games that went 12 innings the previous two days. Phillies should have been 6-1 vs. the Cubs this year and I'm sure Cub fans would rather not see the Phillies.
 
Congratulations are in order to the hard work of BET CRIMES for initiating this thread- Great work at getting all the stats in order-

Congratulations are in order to the hard work and diligence of SPORTSNUT. Since the inception of this forum Sportsnuts thorough research has wowed people.

Shoutouts to Bobby Blue Chip-TrueBlue-shortline and all the other people-


If you want my 2 cents what I did is very simple. I did not really ever look at stats that much. I read the reports of Sportsnuts and others. I did not know the stats or left vs righties or any of those stats-

What I did all year was played Anaheim and Boston Red Sox off losses on the road. This was very profitable, as they usually always won after a loss, I stayed away from Boston when they were slumping bigtime and Anaheim after they clinched.

As someone pointed out I would wait for a loss, and if the price was right, which it was on the road I would back Anaheim and Boston. I picked those teams because their pitching was pretty good and they usualy dont go on big losing streaks-


I have learned the following lessons that I believe I have the answers to making money in betting in general-

PATIENCE- I dont force a game, and with the big selection its really simple-

If I am going to bet money ex on football with a point spread where I choose the team, this is what I am doing every single week now-

I look for USC TROJANS
Georgia Bulldogs
Dallas Cowboys
San Diego Chargers
Calgary Stampeders CFL team
Florida Gators

This is so simple that it is sickening- Last week I took the following plays-

USC -11 over Ohio state WINNER
Georgia-7 over ASU WINNER
Dallas -3 over GBAY WINNER
SanDiego -9 over JETS WINNER
Calgary -12.5 over Toronto WINNER
Florida -7 over tennesee WINNER


Last weeks result were simple for me. I won all the bets but the lines were not that high, I had most 2 lines over 10 and I had the best college team in years and a CFL team playing a 3rd string QB and team that has quit and lost by 30 to the worst team in the league-

What I did was really simple- I said ok I am betting, so why not take all the best teams with the best offense, best coaches, best defenses at LOW REASONABLE LINES?

SO onto this week my strategy to look at these teams has changed a bit because of the list there are much higher lines.

USC- 25 over OSU
FLorida -22 over Mississipi
georgia -7 over ALabama
CGY -9.5 at Toronto
SanDiego -7.5 at Oakland
dallas -11.5 vs Washington

The key difference here is most of my teams are favored by higher margins, so vegas has taken my edge away a bit. But still I have georgia and Sandiego at reasonable lines as well as CGY at -9.5.
However Sandiego and Cgy are on the road, but I dont see raiders beating sandiego-

If I dont have an elite team, the team can go fuck themselves. I want the best, I will pay for the best, I will win over and over and over and over with the best teams.

It basically boils down to this.
Even laying points you are going to have a better chance of winning your game because you have the best teams, that means you have a better chance at covering the spread-
It comes down to trust, and I have put trust in the above teams that I believe they can be trusted when the lines are reasonable and they are motivated to play.

This week looking at Sandiego if I can get a 7 or a 6.5, I really feel this game fits perfectly into my system-

-Better team
-better Defense
-better QB
-better receivers
-better running back
-top level team
-Better Db's

The reverse of my system above is the exact opposite. You will be a millionaire if you fade any bad team when they are very small dogs, this is proven. Ie Browns last week +2.5, Raiders week 1 +3 vs Denver--

This week I feel the Raiders getting about +7 is pretty small and I dont believe they can cover this spread. I believe the Chargers can run away with it. If not no worries because I am betting against all bad team at low spreads, no doubts about that.
 
In terms of betting bad teams in baseball you can win if you pick your spots, and it really depends on the pitcher. Bad teams win easily when their pitcher does not give up any runs-

In football they give you points to take bad teams. Bad teams can cover the spread also in situations where favorites dont care or are not motivated-

ALERT- Anyone noticed that lately in the past 3 to 4 years that ELITE teams in college and in NFl are cleaning up on the road when they play another good team?

It has been happening so often I cannot believe it. Look at USC's record on the road, URBEN MEYER is a killer on the road-

Dallas Cowboys winning everywhere on prime time games lately, Philly last year Chicago, GBAY this year.

The key to betting the ELITE teams is simple. They will win most of their games, so the key is to find a balance between a reasonable line vs a big game for them. A perfect ex was USC vs OHIO state, a reasonable line for a huge huge game for them.

USC -25 vs Oregon state in my eyes does not fit my usual strategy because now if I take USC I have to lay -25 when I could have had them for -11 vs Ohio state?

I believe that PETE CARROLL is the only coach in the world that can be trusted, and I would never bet against this guy- For that reason alone I think its USC or no bet- I may make a small first half play on USC-

I cannot think of a more sure shot than USC on big games in past years, they make it a cake walk for you if you were to bet big on them-
 
Of course USC is better than OSU and UF is better than Ole Miss, but that's what the point spreads are for. You are betting a point spread not the winner (unless it is -4.5 or less) in college football, where in baseball it is all about the winner regardless of margin of victory (unless betting RL).
 
yeah Blue win or lose I dont think this is the spot to take USC or Florida because the spread is quite high-

Believe it or not they are games where you get these teams under a TD, and you have to jump all over them at that spot-

Baseball is better because you win and you cover, I like that aspect better-

BTW- From my limited baseball knowledge I can predict with some degree of acuracy that the CUBS will go cold during the post season. Their achilles heel will be their offense. This is not a team with clutch hitter, Edmonds, Lee and Ramirez will be the culprits of cold hitting.
 
Not something I've learned, but reinforced that it's best to go with Baseball Prospectus's largest discrepancies. It's what gave me the easy Mariners season win total under, and a piece of the Rays to win the World Series at 100:1.... 40 games into the season. Congrats to all those who had them in February closer to 200:1.
 
Always lean towards home teams. 75% of my plays are home teams.

Splits, lineups & line movement are keys for me, especially as season progresses.
My date is usually June 1.

Splits...

Pitchers (runs allowed home, away, OPS home, away, vs. LHB, RHB)
Lineups (runs scored home vs LHP, home vs. RHP, away vs. LHP, away vs. RHP)
Bullpen (home, away runs allowed, who's available)..
splits help determine where value lies..

Lineups...

Note major OPS additions or deletions in lineup
(ex. Pirates production dropped off more than a 1 RPG after Nady and Bay were traded, White Sox are down greater than 1 RPG since Quinten has been injured, LAD production almost 2 RPG higher at home since Manny was acquired)

Also know how much run production is generated off of HRs...
lowest Minnesota, (able to manufacture runs), highest White Sox, (dependent on dingers) ...


Line moves..

Many will disagree, but I only play games where line moves towards the side I am interested in, or where the movements seem "sharp"...
 
Blue_Chip said:
What is that? A stat BP releases or part of their publication?
Click to expand...

sorry, i should have made it more clear. When comparing the BP projected wins vs. the season win totals, the Mariners under and Rays over were the two largest discrepancies, and each easily paid off. While BP missed on the White Sox this year (after nailing them last year), i don't recall what their final projection was for the Sox, although i'm sure it would have begged to bet their under.

for the record, my biggest bet was the Mariners Under, and then two smaller but equal bets on the Giants UNDER 73 (BP projected 68 wins) and the Angles UNDER 93 (my own opinion after learning Lackey was out for a while)... so I pushed on the smaller ones but cleaned up on Seattle. I didn't bet the Rays over (because I didn't even believe BP in spring training) but had to bite on the WS odds that far into the season at 100:1.

All that being said, I'm not disappointed with the Angels play considering the overall outcome. The Angel's pythag record was 88 wins, so I feel I made the right bet but it just didn't pan out.
 
i made money for the first time ever this season playing (i think credit goes to ramble) the SUDWIG system playing against teams that won as a dog their previous game. i wouldnt automatically bet these games, but used it as a guideline in determining my card. it is a pretty brainless system, but it actually worked out for me about 65% of the time. I closed the season up 24 units.
 
I've enjoyed the time I've spent in here this season talking with the crew and there are certainly some great contributors here BC, Shortline, Tim, SportsNut, Blue Chip, and others too numerous to mention have really put a lot of effort into capping these games.

While this is my favorite sport to bet on it does require a TON of time. Taking a few days off and trying to effectively bounce back and cap baseball doesn't work. I ran into a period late this summer where some things in my personal life left me without time to cap baseball. I tried half assing it for a week or two but quickly realized it can't be done.

The biggest thing I've learned all year is that you need to have the time to invest to cap this sport, watch games every night and really be devoted to it or it doesn't work. Having growing kids and another life away from capping bases is impossible. Next year, I'm going to try and get the system off the ground again where we have people follow a certain mid market team and see if I can get a few dedicated guys to chip in. I'll be able to devote the time and not get consumed by it.

See you guys next season. SC
 
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