What Have We Learned, Week 7 edition

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
alright ill get this thread goin...

- the season of flying by. were at week 8 already? damn this shit goes by way too fast

-Peyton's the best of all time, but I didn't need last night to know that. What was confirmed last night is that SF is a fraud. This team is staring 8-8 or 9-7 right in the face

-Oakland may not be bettable at all. This spot favored them very much, had the looks of a classic public trap game but zona won and covered with relative ease.

- Dallas is good. Real good. Philly is gonna have ot beat them twice to win the division

- Lots of people have been all over SD this year and have them as contenders. I love Rivers and all, but the thing with this team is they can win any game or lose any game. I see a classic SD letdown in the playoffs

- Time to start respecting Baltimore as a legit contender, while Atlanta is garbage, especially on the road. might be time for things to start changing in ATL

- tennessee/washington was the shitshow it was billed as. neither of these teams have anything going. cousins is out now, wonder if mccoy starts next week too and rg3 back after the bye? doesnt really matter, although rg3 may win a few late season games

-somethings clearly wrong with seattle, just not the same team as last year. maybe getting rid of a locker room cancer will help going forward. but still, if you told me that Seattle would score 26 vs the Austin Davis led rams and lose, id call bullshit. speaking of the rams, this team is a few drives or even plays away from being 5-1 or 4-2, seriously. love that they had the "screw it" game plan and just went for it. fun team to watch and there still cold be a lot of value in them going forward

-real bad spot for cleveland, i think they will be ok. not serious contender ok, but they are not this bad. I do think that this might be the "wait a minute maybe this is why nobody ever gave hoyer a starting job" game, but we'll see going forward. Couldn't get anything going on the ground or though the air. On the other hand, Jacksonville is gonna hang around in a few games that they shouldnt. Bortls had a bad game, but he definitely looks the part, and hey, gotta give some credit to Shoelace, great performance by him. Sucks he'd never hold up as an every down back.

-minny/buffalo...barf. Orton is good enough to keep buffalo in games though, which Manuel was not. Hard to see many games where Buffalo is up big in the 4th or completely out of it in the 4th. They like to play ugly.

- Cincy's plummet continues. Indy at home. Everybody won money on this game, just a bad line.

- Bears and Saints can start booking tee times in january

- GB struggled out of the gate but they are just rolling right now. a truly scary team that could come out of the NFC.
 
I actually made a mistake in my posting when is aid that the saints can start looking for tee times. didnt see how atrocious that division is. they are still right there in it, and carolina blows so i dont see them holding on. could 7-9 (or 7-8-1) win that division?
 
I actually made a mistake in my posting when is aid that the saints can start looking for tee times. didnt see how atrocious that division is. they are still right there in it, and carolina blows so i dont see them holding on. could 7-9 (or 7-8-1) win that division?

Yes. And before we praise Baltimore too loudly we need to realize that they're 3-0 against this division, with the other wins against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. 0-2 against Indy and an AJ Green led Bengals team. But with as soft as the rest of their schedule looks they should stroll into the playoffs.

Speaking of AJ Green, the Bengals looked completely lost today without him. But they point up 37 against Carolina without him, too, so go figure. Was that Indy's D looking great or Cincy just playing like dogshit?

I think the teams worth betting on right now are the ones where you can see their winning formula:

Dominant
Denver - they do everything well, great offense, good balance, great pass rush.

Teams with a fairly consistent winning formula
Dallas - dominant o-line, balanced offense, time of possession juggernaut keeps their D fresh
Philly - uptempo offense, blitz heavy D keep opponents on edge, dominant special teams gives them hidden yards
Green Bay - freak QB, respectable D, get up early and pour it on
Detroit - dominant d-line, offense doing just enough to win until Megatron returns
 
alright ill get this thread goin...

- the season of flying by. were at week 8 already? damn this shit goes by way too fast

-Peyton's the best of all time, but I didn't need last night to know that. What was confirmed last night is that SF is a fraud. This team is staring 8-8 or 9-7 right in the face

-Oakland may not be bettable at all. This spot favored them very much, had the looks of a classic public trap game but zona won and covered with relative ease.

- Dallas is good. Real good. Philly is gonna have ot beat them twice to win the division

- Lots of people have been all over SD this year and have them as contenders. I love Rivers and all, but the thing with this team is they can win any game or lose any game. I see a classic SD letdown in the playoffs

- Time to start respecting Baltimore as a legit contender, while Atlanta is garbage, especially on the road. might be time for things to start changing in ATL

- tennessee/washington was the shitshow it was billed as. neither of these teams have anything going. cousins is out now, wonder if mccoy starts next week too and rg3 back after the bye? doesnt really matter, although rg3 may win a few late season games

-somethings clearly wrong with seattle, just not the same team as last year. maybe getting rid of a locker room cancer will help going forward. but still, if you told me that Seattle would score 26 vs the Austin Davis led rams and lose, id call bullshit. speaking of the rams, this team is a few drives or even plays away from being 5-1 or 4-2, seriously. love that they had the "screw it" game plan and just went for it. fun team to watch and there still cold be a lot of value in them going forward

-real bad spot for cleveland, i think they will be ok. not serious contender ok, but they are not this bad. I do think that this might be the "wait a minute maybe this is why nobody ever gave hoyer a starting job" game, but we'll see going forward. Couldn't get anything going on the ground or though the air. On the other hand, Jacksonville is gonna hang around in a few games that they shouldnt. Bortls had a bad game, but he definitely looks the part, and hey, gotta give some credit to Shoelace, great performance by him. Sucks he'd never hold up as an every down back.

-minny/buffalo...barf. Orton is good enough to keep buffalo in games though, which Manuel was not. Hard to see many games where Buffalo is up big in the 4th or completely out of it in the 4th. They like to play ugly.

- Cincy's plummet continues. Indy at home. Everybody won money on this game, just a bad line.

- Bears and Saints can start booking tee times in january

- GB struggled out of the gate but they are just rolling right now. a truly scary team that could come out of the NFC.

Problem is the NFC South is Big10 bad.....Saints are 1 game outta 1st place. That's how bad it is.
 
I actually made a mistake in my posting when is aid that the saints can start looking for tee times. didnt see how atrocious that division is. they are still right there in it, and carolina blows so i dont see them holding on. could 7-9 (or 7-8-1) win that division?

:shake:
 
alright ill get this thread goin...

- the season of flying by. were at week 8 already? damn this shit goes by way too fast

-Peyton's the best of all time, but I didn't need last night to know that. What was confirmed last night is that SF is a fraud. This team is staring 8-8 or 9-7 right in the face

-Oakland may not be bettable at all. This spot favored them very much, had the looks of a classic public trap game but zona won and covered with relative ease.

- Dallas is good. Real good. Philly is gonna have ot beat them twice to win the division

- Lots of people have been all over SD this year and have them as contenders. I love Rivers and all, but the thing with this team is they can win any game or lose any game. I see a classic SD letdown in the playoffs

- Time to start respecting Baltimore as a legit contender, while Atlanta is garbage, especially on the road. might be time for things to start changing in ATL

- tennessee/washington was the shitshow it was billed as. neither of these teams have anything going. cousins is out now, wonder if mccoy starts next week too and rg3 back after the bye? doesnt really matter, although rg3 may win a few late season games

-somethings clearly wrong with seattle, just not the same team as last year. maybe getting rid of a locker room cancer will help going forward. but still, if you told me that Seattle would score 26 vs the Austin Davis led rams and lose, id call bullshit. speaking of the rams, this team is a few drives or even plays away from being 5-1 or 4-2, seriously. love that they had the "screw it" game plan and just went for it. fun team to watch and there still cold be a lot of value in them going forward

-real bad spot for cleveland, i think they will be ok. not serious contender ok, but they are not this bad. I do think that this might be the "wait a minute maybe this is why nobody ever gave hoyer a starting job" game, but we'll see going forward. Couldn't get anything going on the ground or though the air. On the other hand, Jacksonville is gonna hang around in a few games that they shouldnt. Bortls had a bad game, but he definitely looks the part, and hey, gotta give some credit to Shoelace, great performance by him. Sucks he'd never hold up as an every down back.

-minny/buffalo...barf. Orton is good enough to keep buffalo in games though, which Manuel was not. Hard to see many games where Buffalo is up big in the 4th or completely out of it in the 4th. They like to play ugly.

- Cincy's plummet continues. Indy at home. Everybody won money on this game, just a bad line.

- Bears and Saints can start booking tee times in january

- GB struggled out of the gate but they are just rolling right now. a truly scary team that could come out of the NFC.

regarding SF, not sure i`m ready to call them frauds just yet...they are missing Iupati, Ward, Culliver, Willis and they jsut got back Anthony Davis yesterday for his first game...they`ve been missing Bowman and Aldon since the beginning of the season...Justin and Aldon in tandem is what creates the pressure for that dline and it is being sorely missed...I mean last night they had Wilhoite out there in Willis` spot what else was going to happenÉ..Injury isn`t an excuse but i don`t think they are frauds..yet
 
Yes. And before we praise Baltimore too loudly we need to realize that they're 3-0 against this division, with the other wins against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. 0-2 against Indy and an AJ Green led Bengals team. But with as soft as the rest of their schedule looks they should stroll into the playoffs.

Speaking of AJ Green, the Bengals looked completely lost today without him. But they point up 37 against Carolina without him, too, so go figure. Was that Indy's D looking great or Cincy just playing like dogshit?

I think the teams worth betting on right now are the ones where you can see their winning formula:

Dominant
Denver - they do everything well, great offense, good balance, great pass rush.

Teams with a fairly consistent winning formula
Dallas - dominant o-line, balanced offense, time of possession juggernaut keeps their D fresh
Philly - uptempo offense, blitz heavy D keep opponents on edge, dominant special teams gives them hidden yards
Green Bay - freak QB, respectable D, get up early and pour it on
Detroit - dominant d-line, offense doing just enough to win until Megatron returns

Von Miller and Ware looked great out there..anyone see the spin move that juked Staley last night
 
Dallas hasn't really played a tough schedule. The Seattle win looked good, but after this week, we have to question how good Seattle really is in 2014.

KC offense has no WRs and likely won't go far because of it. They need to get Kelce more involved. Numerous WR miscues against SD, lucky to win that.

Saints are in trouble, and Brees isn't playing well. Not sure they can rebound off of this loss. Huge test on SNF against the Packers next. Historically, Saints would be an auto-bet. This year, not so.

Zona offense looks good with Palmer back. They are feeding Ellington a ton (as they should). Fitz is a reliable possession guy. And Floyd and Brown are the deep ball guys. The defense was already strong, and their kicking game is legit. They may win the NFC West.
 
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Seattle's play calling was Rams like. Running on 2nd and 10 or more seems to be very common with losing. I'm not sure why teams that pass on 1st down feel they need to run on 2nd down despite the distance.
The Sheep have a QB now. Even Davis' interviews are better than Sum Bradford's.
I said in preseason to watch out for Tre Mason. Not sure why he was inactive for 4 games but he's playing now. Zach Stacy didn't get in for 1 play yesterday. I wonder if Fisher is sending messages about misconduct via playing time. Tre hasn't earned anything so Fisher made him inactive. Stacy who was a starter dressed but wasn't allowed to play. I have to believe it's Fishers way of penalizing for misconduct.
As for the win vs Seattle, I still see a team that has enough talent to win consistently but i don't see smart play. Gimmicks worked yesterday but I don't see a style of play that looks like we have a playoff contender.
 
We've learned that the NFL has turned into a full blown clown show with the penalties, specifically PI, OPI, and D holding. Refs have no clue when to call what. Biggest plays of the games are decided by the zebras. If it wasn't for gambling, fantasy, and tailgating I wouldn't watch this shit. That being said the Chiefs are still alive at 3-3 so I'll continue to invest time and energy by living and dying with each game. The NFL is like a drug.
 
after this week, we have to question how good Seattle really is in 2014.

Next week should tell the story about Seattle, and I mean beyond their winning or losing. Their defense shows irrespective of final result, then I'd see no reason to not believe in their righting things longer term. If it doesn't, and they continue to leak points at a rate mirroring their pre-2012 efforts under Carroll, then I'd read into that their signaling to us that they're suffering a not unusual down year off the pinnacle effort an NFL team can give.
 
Seattle's play calling was Rams like. Running on 2nd and 10 or more seems to be very common with losing. I'm not sure why teams that pass on 1st down feel they need to run on 2nd down despite the distance.
The Sheep have a QB now. Even Davis' interviews are better than Sum Bradford's.
I said in preseason to watch out for Tre Mason. Not sure why he was inactive for 4 games but he's playing now. Zach Stacy didn't get in for 1 play yesterday. I wonder if Fisher is sending messages about misconduct via playing time. Tre hasn't earned anything so Fisher made him inactive. Stacy who was a starter dressed but wasn't allowed to play. I have to believe it's Fishers way of penalizing for misconduct.
As for the win vs Seattle, I still see a team that has enough talent to win consistently but i don't see smart play. Gimmicks worked yesterday but I don't see a style of play that looks like we have a playoff contender.


Mason got away with that huge fumble. He played very well up until that point but damn that would have been a daggar. Still have no idea how the Rams got the ball, looked very clear to me that Seattle had it before the pile started
 
PIT is an absolute joke who I will try to fade for the rest of the season. Last night was unreal (and i had nothing on HOU)
 
PIT is an absolute joke who I will try to fade for the rest of the season. Last night was unreal (and i had nothing on HOU)

Make sure its against teams that know how to defend a RB coming out of the backfield. The dump-off to Bell is probably their most productive play right now. According to FFToday stats, Indy 27th in yards receiving yards allowed to RBs.

Down the road, Baltimore, Tennessee and Cincinnati are all pretty stout at defending the RB dumpoffs.
 
NFL ATS Standings

2014 NFL ATS Standings

[TABLE="width: 562"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]Team (SU record)[/TH]
[TH]ATS[/TH]
[TH]Streak[/TH]
[TH]O/U[/TH]
[TH]Streak[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Indianapolis Colts (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]6-1[/TD]
[TD]W5[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)[/TD]
[TD]4-1-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Dallas Cowboys (6-1)[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]O2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Baltimore Ravens (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]San Diego Chargers (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Arizona Cardinals (5-1)[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Green Bay Packers (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]4-2-1[/TD]
[TD]W4[/TD]
[TD]6-1[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Houston Texans (3-3)[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Cleveland Browns (3-3)[/TD]
[TD]3-2-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Detroit Lions (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Carolina Panthers (3-3-1)[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]O5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Denver Broncos (5-1)[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1)[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]L3[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]San Francisco 49ers (4-3)[/TD]
[TD]3-3-1[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]O2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Miami Dolphins (3-3)[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Seattle Seahawks (3-3)[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]O2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Oakland Raiders (0-6)[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New England Patriots (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]O4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Buffalo Bills (4-3)[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]1-6[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Chicago Bears (3-4)[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New York Giants (3-4)[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]L2[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]O1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Minnesota Vikings (2-5)[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New Orleans Saints (2-4)[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]5-1[/TD]
[TD]O3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]St. Louis Rams (2-4)[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]O4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]L1[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]O4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Tennessee Titans (2-5)[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]U2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Atlanta Falcons (2-5)[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]L4[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Washington Redskins (2-5)[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]L4[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]U1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]W2[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]U3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]New York Jets (1-6)[/TD]
[TD]1-5-1[/TD]
[TD]W1[/TD]
[TD]4-3[/TD]
[TD]O2[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 
5 ATS wins in a row is the longest streak so far this year (Indy Wks 3-7 and San Diego Wks 1-5)

Longest ATS losing streak is also 5 (Jax Wks 1-5)

Indy has won 3 games ATS while losing the turnover battle, tops in the league. Arizona, Philly and OAKLAND are next with two.

Atlanta and New England have lost two games ATS while winning the turnover battle.
 
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