What have we learned after 7 weeks of college football?

That undefeated fat cats that went on the road struggled mightily.... UCF, WVU and South Florida off the top of my head.....
 
Georgia hadn't looked quite right all year and it showed yesterday. Game totally changed on the first drive when Kirby tried the fake FG. Holyfield was trucking fools, had the crowd out of it, then the fake FG and the game was over after that.

Fromm struggled mightily. Everything is still in front of them despite that loss, but i think it's safe to say the losses from last year's defense are starting to show.
 
Ohio State is overrated. The fact that Minnesota's offensive line physically dominated Ohio State in the early part of the game was surprising. We know that they have weakness in their secondary. Their offense is above average but not dominant and Haskins will get exposed by a good defensive team like Michigan. A creative coach like Jeff Brohm is going to be able to expose the weaknesses in the Ohio State secondary. As soon as the line hits 14 this week, I will be grabbing Purdue.
 
Wouldn't call this "learned" but rather conjecture. Seems the former high flyers like Hawaii, North Texas, Buffalo and a few others are "slowing down" - inevitable I guess moving into conference play. I know Buffalo seems to be a pretty popular play this week already though the line hasn't moved a great deal from +3.5 to +2. Already reading many expect Buffalo to close the favorite. But my gut tells me Toledo beats them at home this weekend.

Mizzou in perfect spot this week - lost 3 in row including Bama and GA and Memphis coming in off devastating loss. I thought they played hard vs. Bama just outmatched. If they can, they will take out frustrations on Memphis.

Can any of the potential playoff teams stay within 14 of Bama with a healthy Tua? I'm beginning to think not. Bama's D seems to be getting better and better - Mizzou couldn't do anything after the 1Q.

Live here in LV and UNLV has collapsed since their QB went down. Seems it took the whole spirit of the team down since the backup can't play. played AF -12.

How the hell does an Iowa QB get 6 TD passes.

Normally this coming weekend is the spot where OSU kills Purdue - but something tells me Purdue will give them all they can handle.

As I've said many times, I don't Cap. But I have no idea why the love for Miss St at LSU - if it's LSU let down and look forward I think that is totally overrated. LSU kids are gearing toward Bama showdown and know they can't slip up and Miss St is good enough not to overlook. I took the bait and played LSU -6.5.

As I knew before the year started and in all previous weeks, Crimson K is the best CF handicapper I've ever seen. This season I was going to track the "slippage" between the amazing numbers he gets vs. the closing line at BOL/5D but got lazy and didn't do it. I will next year. But I don't think it's much. Why I haven't tailed 100% blindly even with worse numbers I don't know. I think most use a 100 unit bankroll with 1 unit = 1% or something along those lines and CK is good for a bankroll + a season. Great work. And from many others too - this Board can make you money if you read a lot.
 
vegasvice said:
Ohio State is overrated. The fact that Minnesota's offensive line physically dominated Ohio State in the early part of the game was surprising. We know that they have weakness in their secondary. Their offense is above average but not dominant and Haskins will get exposed by a good defensive team like Michigan. A creative coach like Jeff Brohm is going to be able to expose the weaknesses in the Ohio State secondary. As soon as the line hits 14 this week, I will be grabbing Purdue.
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The effort differential early on was obvious though. I don‘t think you should rush to fade a team just because it was lazy/sloppy early on against an inferior team. Parallel cases = Notre Dame vs Ball State and Clemson vs Cuse
 
THe flippin flags.
When have you seen a guy ejected while sitting on the bench?
The SEC officiating is ridiculous.
You force defenders to basically try and tackle in a stand up position, wrapping up the ball carrier and then flag them when they are pick up the runner and drop them to the ground.
Ags had two calls against them for this.
I saw the same in the Colo/USC game and no flag.

Unless we find headless players, every tackle is subject to targeting.
 
Bar - U asked in another thread why Alabama doesn't focus on punters and kickers. remember the name Danny King. He is a local high school kid being recruited
by all the SEC schools including Saban. saban told local coach not to play him at QB.(he kicks 54 yarders with 10 yards to spare at ease) Notre Dame tryin to get him
also . He is only a Junior. he is from Fort Hill high school in Cumberland, Md. Future Millionaire if stays healthy. Kid is an athelete - He is skippin baseball so he
does see the light
 
Georgia is what I have seen with them. I still cannot get over that gift line last week, it was like thievery. I have said it since early in the season, more Fields, less Fromm. I am pretty sure I texted a few people that if Georgia wants to go to the playoffs/beat Bama it will be due to a QB switch. I loved Fromm in late high school and last year but the QB position is so fluid nowadays with these teams all building massive depth. Now, does that solve the Georgia defensive issues? No, but they will need to be super-elite on offense to get to the SEC 'ship game.

Coaching and refs...it is just ridiculous right now.

Colorado basically came into that USC game thinking they didn't have a great shot it seems. They tried to be very conservative early and once JT hit a few bombs in the 2nd quarter they knew they couldn't win or at least thought as much. The rest of the game was played as though they were trying to make the score respectable (defeat with dignity). The two point conversion try at 31-20 was just irresponsible coaching. I lost a lot of respect that entire 2nd half for that guy.

Speaking of 'defeat with dignity' and weird going for 2 situations... that brings us to PSU/MSU. Okay, last year I get the hangover loss in East Lansing but this Penn State team had bye week and talked as though they were still going to save their season. So, they face a team that desperately needed a win before the fan base exploded and they dropped another one to the Spartans. What I learned here is nothing new on either end. Franklin sucks as a coach. Michigan State is not good versus the pass in most facets yet the Lions really didn't attack deep that much or into the soft spots. Meanwhile, MSU wasn't very good either but they got some of their trick plays to work and when it was time for a clutch drive they made it happen. I believe that the TD call was not the actual play call but Felton basically just said 'get me the ball'. He is a helluva WR.

Blake Barnett is like watching Wilton Speight back in the pocket.

Charlie Strong still sucks.

USF will end up with 3-4 losses when it is all said and done, no doubt in my mind.

Tulsa played not to lose that game at the end. The Bulls had no business winning that game whatsoever. I feel for kids when their coach gets his asshole puckered up like that.

Nebraska is one of my value teams going forward but that plan will be watched more closely now after that collapse. Everything was going according to plan on Saturday.

Many will point to the Irish game as they are 'not that good' or 'almost lost to Pitt'... guess what? That happens during a season. I give them credit for fighting through and getting the win. The USC game keeps getting more interesting though. That should be a fun one coming up.

Congrats to Eastern Michigan. No team deserves close wins more right now.

The hottest of all garbage in the SEC right now is Auburn and I couldn't be more pleased. Yes,I get sick of their ridiculous ratings to prop up the conference every year. Now, obviously the narrative will have to change and we'll see a 2 loss LSU team stay in the top 7-9 till the end to help the league get a possible two bids.

Teams that grow each week this year....that people wanted to burn early.

-Texas
-Florida
-Michigan

I know I have more thoughts but that is a snippet at least.
 
I've learned at this point I want ND in the playoffs as it helps my Bama futures. But I think both NW and USC are going to give them all they can handle down the stretch (especially if Pitt did at South Bend).

Nebraska mindset could be a worry but they are a play on for me until proven otherwise. I don't think Frost will lose the team at all.

Michigan is the best team in the B1G but not the best schedule.

B1G west is completely wide open with 4 teams having legit shots at it (Wisky, Iowa, NW, Pur). Tiebreakers likely to come into play as it's hard to see one of those teams running away with it. Imagine a Michigan/NW rematch in the title game....lol

I'm not tearing up my Purdue 50-1 B1G ticket just yet...lol

It's hard to be good in today's football without a competent QB (Wisky).

90% of coaches are complete idiots.

And I'll end up broke/in jail/or a gutter in West Lafayette saturday as I'll be there tailgating from morning to night to bring home the the upset against CUM and OSU
 
B.A.R. said:
Many will point to the Irish game as they are 'not that good' or 'almost lost to Pitt'... guess what? That happens during a season. I give them credit for fighting through and getting the win.
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Yup, just gotta get the W.

Same thing happened with Texas this past weekend. Baylor was ready to play, Ehlinger went out early in the game, Horns off of their OU win. Baylor had 3 shots from inside the Texas 20 at the end of the game but couldn't insert the dagger. Winning games like this are sometimes more impressive than the 45-0 routs.
 
Another true freshman QB named starter and changed the entire season for a team. This week it was BYU. I've lost count of the freshman starters who play like stars, but this kid is added to the list. Iowa State is a completely different team with the freshman QB who starts for them now. And the USC QB looks better every week and is as good as any of them.

BAR, you are right on the money with your criticism of Montgomery at Tulsa. This guy has cost Tulsa several wins over the years because he loses his nerve when they have a late lead and he did it again v USF. He played one way the entire game, then, with a chance to make a first down and win the game, ran three give up plays into the middle of the line when USF knew that's what he would do. That might have made sense if he had been up a TD, but he knew a FG could beat him and still gave up.

Then a typical play I see all day every Saturday handed the game to USF. The QB had thrown the ball, the D-line knew he had thrown the ball, and yet a moron D-lineman had to push the USF QB down for no reason except D-mindset stupidity, and handed USF the game. I see that over and over and yet D-coaches always make the same stupid excuse for them, "I don't mind seeing a kid get a penalty as long as he's being aggressive." That's why morons keep doing it at even the most crucial times.

Saw a dozen more stupid holding penalties where blockers hold a guy after the play is already past them. Cost Bama a TD--and almost cost them a cover--when a WR held a D-back on a quick toss to the fastest guy on the Bama team. The typical play too--the ball carrier changed direction and when the D-back tried to go the opposite way the WR grabbed hiim. It amazes me that coaches don't explain, "he's the fastest guy on the team, if he catches the ball two yards behind the line of scrimmage and then changes direction there is no reason to hold because he will be long gone by the time a D-back changes direction."

This is the time of year when things change. Teams are playing conference games and it's a rare team that can give points on the road and cover. Home team dogs won at close to 70% this week.

I think I have won more money on Utah than any other team. I don't know how Willingham manages to have the best kicker and best punter year after year, but he has them again this year. I love betting tough guys at home getting points and Utah is always the toughest team in the Pac-12 and no matter what they do they are always underrated and always get points.
 
Oh...and with a healthy Tua this Bama team has the widest gap vs the rest of the country that I've seen. I realize some handicappers I trust disagree and have gone on rants about how bad the game of the year/potential championship spreads are/were (I think some guys have Bama with a 5 point gap) but I've got these guys at this point a full 10 points better than Clemson/Georgia/OSU/Michigan who I have clumped together in the 2nd tier. It's hard to project and put power numbers together for this Bama team that has rarely put it's best QB out there for the 2nd half and in many cases even the 2nd quarter. I think if you put Bama's 1st qtr numbers and stretch them out to a full game you have more of a complete picture of what this team is...and it's scary IMO for the rest. I think there is reason to believe even my 10 point gap is low based on the low utilization/need to have the 1st teamers out there for more than a half.
 
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Michigan is the only team in the country that possesses combination of elite pass defense and strong enough running game that is required to beat Alabama.

They’re not necessarily the second best team in the country, but they’re the most equipped to actually play a competitive game against the Tide.
 
B.A.R. said:
Georgia is what I have seen with them. I still cannot get over that gift line last week, it was like thievery. I have said it since early in the season, more Fields, less Fromm. I am pretty sure I texted a few people that if Georgia wants to go to the playoffs/beat Bama it will be due to a QB switch. I loved Fromm in late high school and last year but the QB position is so fluid nowadays with these teams all building massive depth. Now, does that solve the Georgia defensive issues? No, but they will need to be super-elite on offense to get to the SEC 'ship game.
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Fromm was committed to Alabama for a long time before he switched to UGA. Because of that, we had to take a different QB in that class. Some kid from Hawaii...
 
gps_3 said:
Fromm was committed to Alabama for a long time before he switched to UGA. Because of that, we had to take a different QB in that class. Some kid from Hawaii...
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Yeah, that was a heck of a backup plan.

I thought that was part of Kirby going to Georgia. I cannot remember offhand.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah, that was a heck of a backup plan.

I thought that was part of Kirby going to Georgia. I cannot remember offhand.
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Kirby had been gone, but probably already had a relationship there. Not 100%, but I think it had something to do with Kiffin, as in, the Fromms didn't like him. By the time got shit-canned, Fromm was all UGA
 
I spoke too soon--Utah and points against USC was going to be my first max-bet of the year and now I see Utah is favorite. I always like Utah against USC because I think Utah is a tougher team, but giving points casts it in a new light.

Not sure why, but Robinson has not worked out for TCU at QB. I don't know how much longer TCU can go without replacing him, He looks like he's lost his confidence.

They've been heaping praise on Grier at WV all season, but the Grier I saw at Ames this weekend is the Grier I expect to see.

The Washington State flag has been present at every Gameday ever held, but this coming weekend will be the first time Gameday has ever been in Pullman. They may break the attendance record.

Overs and unders have been almost exactly even all season until this past weekend. Under dominated with 41 games going under, only 11 over. I don't care what the count is I'm sticking to my pledge to never bet another under as long as I live. I'm a happier man since I took that pledge.

I don't know how to explain the Northwestern game, but Michigan looks like the best team in the Big 10 to me right now with Iowa second.

Northwestern is a total mystery to me. The QB looks like a converted kicker when he throws and all the WRs look like short guys who stumble every time they make a break and yet they complete every pass and are unstoppable when they get on a roll. I cannot handicap them at all so I don't even try.

Utah State looks like the best Group of Five team to me. I've already made a note to bet them against Boise their final game. I expect to get points, but after seeing Utah favored over USC I may be wrong.
 
-Still can't believe what I saw from Tech on Thursday night, defensively. I know Gibbs has made some headway with Bro's train wreck there, but that was a really good defensive effort by them vs. TCU - disciplined (dare I say?), flying to the ball, tough up front, etc.
- To Tahoe's point, you cannot trust Robinson with anything at TCU. Just completely careless with the ball and it will continue to lose games for Patterson. Happened at Texas, happened vs. Tech.
- I'll repeat my hatred for that stupid fair catch rule now allowed on kickoffs. Corner / short kicks on kickoffs are a good strategy and I like to see them executed well. That's out the window now.
- Need to watch the Ehlinger shoulder injury, only because it's not a "serious" thing but the guy will probably continue to just try and run over people and, shoulder or otherwise, that's not good for his longevity. Herman has to rein things in, pronto.
- UCF is really resilient. Not the best team in the country by any stretch. But McKenzie Milton is a baller, and his attitude seems to have permeated that entire team.
- I wonder if Gundy has had enough at OSU. He's had the issues with Pickens and his AD and just sorta wonder if he's looking to go somewhere else. That abysmal effort on Saturday isn't a great addition to his resume'.
- Good for Army. Love Jeff Monken. Love seeing his team do well.
- Have already professed my man love for Matt Campbell so no need to expand any further. What a thorough ass whipping of West Virginia.
- Go fuck yourself:
quote]
LkqbEZwD_400x400.jpeg
 
B.A.R. said:
Frank, the kickoff rule infuriates me.
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Even further, receiving team has been assessed a 15 yard penalty on the prior touchdown /PAT, so kicking team gets to do so from the 50, Prime opportunity to pin in the team who committed a stupid personal foul earlier. Alas, pooch it to the 5, great opportunity to pin them or even get a turnover, and you reward the receiving team with a chance to fair catch the kick and start at the 25.
 
rambler882 said:
Im close to taking Auburn for a few reasons. Before i jump in or state what im seeing, curious any other thoughts out there?
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Read in SEC thread about locker room split. Suppose that should cause pause but think AU still a possible play.
 
lvmike32 said:
Wouldn't call this "learned" but rather conjecture. Seems the former high flyers like Hawaii, North Texas, Buffalo and a few others are "slowing down" - inevitable I guess moving into conference play. I know Buffalo seems to be a pretty popular play this week already though the line hasn't moved a great deal from +3.5 to +2. Already reading many expect Buffalo to close the favorite. But my gut tells me Toledo beats them at home this weekend.

Mizzou in perfect spot this week - lost 3 in row including Bama and GA and Memphis coming in off devastating loss. I thought they played hard vs. Bama just outmatched. If they can, they will take out frustrations on Memphis.

Can any of the potential playoff teams stay within 14 of Bama with a healthy Tua? I'm beginning to think not. Bama's D seems to be getting better and better - Mizzou couldn't do anything after the 1Q.

Live here in LV and UNLV has collapsed since their QB went down. Seems it took the whole spirit of the team down since the backup can't play. played AF -12.

How the hell does an Iowa QB get 6 TD passes.

Normally this coming weekend is the spot where OSU kills Purdue - but something tells me Purdue will give them all they can handle.

As I've said many times, I don't Cap. But I have no idea why the love for Miss St at LSU - if it's LSU let down and look forward I think that is totally overrated. LSU kids are gearing toward Bama showdown and know they can't slip up and Miss St is good enough not to overlook. I took the bait and played LSU -6.5.

As I knew before the year started and in all previous weeks, Crimson K is the best CF handicapper I've ever seen. This season I was going to track the "slippage" between the amazing numbers he gets vs. the closing line at BOL/5D but got lazy and didn't do it. I will next year. But I don't think it's much. Why I haven't tailed 100% blindly even with worse numbers I don't know. I think most use a 100 unit bankroll with 1 unit = 1% or something along those lines and CK is good for a bankroll + a season. Great work. And from many others too - this Board can make you money if you read a lot.
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What he said about CK.....BIG FACTS, No cap
 
Also you guys talk about the TCU QB situation....they got the best QB outta LA last year......have to think we see him soon
 
rambler882 said:
Im close to taking Auburn for a few reasons. Before i jump in or state what im seeing, curious any other thoughts out there?
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I think it comes down to how much you believe the bad Ole Miss defense can help the bad Auburn offense “get right”. I think the Ole Miss offense has a big advantage over the Auburn secondary.
 
As I've said many times, I don't Cap. But I have no idea why the love for Miss St at LSU - if it's LSU let down and look forward I think that is totally overrated. LSU kids are gearing toward Bama showdown and know they can't slip up and Miss St is good enough not to overlook. I took the bait and played LSU -6.5.
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I typically consider the dog in most games first and I can't see playing Miss State. LSU is off a emotional stretch of games, however Miss St crushed them last year. Revenge is often overrated, but I think when a favorite gets blown out the following year it can matter...at the very least it will make sure LSU's attention doesn't stray during practice and prep.

Don't see Fitz learning how to pass during the bye. How those WRs and that QB going to beat LSU DBs in man while Tigers load the box and sell out vs the run? I have a hard time seeing how MSU sustains drives and scores.

The only angle I could see for backing MSU would be their D, if that is one's position I suppose they would be better taking the under.
 
rambler882 said:
Im close to taking Auburn for a few reasons. Before i jump in or state what im seeing, curious any other thoughts out there?
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One thing, Auburn's D did not play bad vs Tennessee, there may've had a busted coverage on the long Chandler TD pass and catch, but every team has a bust from time to time, every team. It was more of a case of Tennessee just making some really great plays throughout the game. I actually could not believe what I was seeing with the ball placement Guarantano was putting the ball and the kind of catches WRs were making. It was one of those games that Vols just had "it". I personally wouldn't be ready to sell Auburn's D although they do face another offense that can be capable of making plays the way Vols did last week and OM definitely more consistently better at making such plays.

Feels like a coin flip game. Auburn O is hard to trust and hard to trust their confidence with what they are trying to do right now.
 
s--k said:
One thing, Auburn's D did not play bad vs Tennessee, there may've had a busted coverage on the long Chandler TD pass and catch, but every team has a bust from time to time, every team. It was more of a case of Tennessee just making some really great plays throughout the game. I actually could not believe what I was seeing with the ball placement Guarantano was putting the ball and the kind of catches WRs were making. It was one of those games that Vols just had "it". I personally wouldn't be ready to sell Auburn's D although they do face another offense that can be capable of making plays the way Vols did last week and OM definitely more consistently better at making such plays.

Feels like a coin flip game. Auburn O is hard to trust and hard to trust their confidence with what they are trying to do right now.
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Yea I was shocked by Guarantano too. I attended the Tenny at Bama game where he started after the SC game and he couldn‘t throw at all or if at all a 5 yard dump off. And vs Auburn he was suddenly peak Finley or Thorson. Blew my mind, he couldn‘t have gotten that much better in such short time lol?
 
s--k said:
One thing, Auburn's D did not play bad vs Tennessee, there may've had a busted coverage on the long Chandler TD pass and catch, but every team has a bust from time to time, every team. It was more of a case of Tennessee just making some really great plays throughout the game. I actually could not believe what I was seeing with the ball placement Guarantano was putting the ball and the kind of catches WRs were making. It was one of those games that Vols just had "it". I personally wouldn't be ready to sell Auburn's D although they do face another offense that can be capable of making plays the way Vols did last week and OM definitely more consistently better at making such plays.

Feels like a coin flip game. Auburn O is hard to trust and hard to trust their confidence with what they are trying to do right now.
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Thanks for the response. After being inspired by VK's post about sports investing (in CK's thread) and divulging tactics I definitely am jealous of how other individuals, you included, can know the ins and outs of every game/team. You can rattle off players, know schemes, know what matchups can be exploited, etc.

I state this as I've learned over the years a much different strategy to pick games. I personally would try to win via knowledge of teams but end of the day it just did not work for me. Where I've been able to carve a way to pick winners is tracking value, review of high level metrics, identify pitfalls, know when & where to stay away, and as time permits I can sometimes really dig in (usually NFL). Oh, and I think on games....alot. I lose when I don't think and I rapid fire but if I take time to just think on games I tend to do well. Not sexy, not a cool way to cap, but I tend to do well. I do actually leverage data much more effectively in NFL and definitely in CBB.

All to say, what draws me to Auburn is the value side of the equation. I marked it as a game to learn more about as much as I can to make a decision. I don't know anything about the locker room but I am certain if I can get them -3 it is enough value to fire on. They've had a bit harder SoS compared to Ole Miss. They beat a top team in Washington, played LSU within 1 point, lose to MSST (which I was on MSST similar to what draws me to Auburn here), and then gets beat by Tennessee. Meanwhile, Ole Miss most quality win is v. Texas Tech week 1. The rest of Ole Miss has been very meh when I would review box scores.

I'm waiting for now, but Auburn -3 will be a play if I can get it. Too much value and that is enough for me. While Auburn's offense has been shit, they should have enough talent to put up points on a terrible Ole Miss defense. Flip side, I get Ole Miss has a great offense and that definitely has me nervous.
 
I don't know why, but I'm infatuated with playing these two games but I cannot get a read I like. North Texas-UAB & Buffalo-Toledo.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Yea I was shocked by Guarantano too. I attended the Tenny at Bama game where he started after the SC game and he couldn‘t throw at all or if at all a 5 yard dump off. And vs Auburn he was suddenly peak Finley or Thorson. Blew my mind, he couldn‘t have gotten that much better in such short time lol?
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Average players can occasionally do above average things. And really good players sometimes do average things. We'll never figure that one out. Safe to say they took some encouragement from the Georgia game and must've had a 2 weeks of prep and came to Auburn with the right attitude and executed. Being +3 turnovers definitely helped too.
 
rambler882 said:
Thanks for the response. After being inspired by VK's post about sports investing (in CK's thread) and divulging tactics I definitely am jealous of how other individuals, you included, can know the ins and outs of every game/team. You can rattle off players, know schemes, know what matchups can be exploited, etc.

I state this as I've learned over the years a much different strategy to pick games. I personally would try to win via knowledge of teams but end of the day it just did not work for me. Where I've been able to carve a way to pick winners is tracking value, review of high level metrics, identify pitfalls, know when & where to stay away, and as time permits I can sometimes really dig in (usually NFL). Oh, and I think on games....alot. I lose when I don't think and I rapid fire but if I take time to just think on games I tend to do well. Not sexy, not a cool way to cap, but I tend to do well. I do actually leverage data much more effectively in NFL and definitely in CBB.

All to say, what draws me to Auburn is the value side of the equation. I marked it as a game to learn more about as much as I can to make a decision. I don't know anything about the locker room but I am certain if I can get them -3 it is enough value to fire on. They've had a bit harder SoS compared to Ole Miss. They beat a top team in Washington, played LSU within 1 point, lose to MSST (which I was on MSST similar to what draws me to Auburn here), and then gets beat by Tennessee. Meanwhile, Ole Miss most quality win is v. Texas Tech week 1. The rest of Ole Miss has been very meh when I would review box scores.

I'm waiting for now, but Auburn -3 will be a play if I can get it. Too much value and that is enough for me. While Auburn's offense has been shit, they should have enough talent to put up points on a terrible Ole Miss defense. Flip side, I get Ole Miss has a great offense and that definitely has me nervous.
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You are too kind.

My approach is just trying to have some basic knowledge on every team out there to form a basis and then I rely heavily on what I read and hear elsewhere to try and bring a better understanding of strength and weaknesses. I am much more of an eyeball and gut picker though.

You mention college vs NFL, I always laugh at myself...I spend literally all week thinking about college games. I lay in bed to fall asleep thinking about games. I work thinking about games. My wife talks to me and I am thinking about games, all week. I pick my NFL games in about 10 minutes Sunday morning. It kinda works for me, I am often more profitable in the NFL than college. College is just so much more fun.

Totally get the value angle. It makes sense. Auburn is definitely desperate and the price is low.
 
haha love it. Thinking about games is the best part of it. NFL I think I do better at simply because it is more controlled. 16 games a week, 32 teams to master, and I can really focus on the ones I want to. Meanwhile, in CFB, I am the same as you that I think it is way more fun. I start by writing down every game I want to review which ends up being 30+. I try to narrow it down and start to lock in bets. Then I shift into value, then situational, then I look for outliers such as a top offense v. defense, SoS flip flopped, etc.

After that I'll look at this forum to see what I missed. I will stick to 2-4 posters and see which game they really like and time permitting I'll dig in if I missed it.

Anyway...this week is tough and I keep locking in bets not feeling real confident haha. I'll be in Vegas though so I'll be putting in bets there as well.
 
I always like to look back at GOY lines from this summer. Unfortunately I just have a few of them for each week.

I see USC was -4 at Utah, now Utah -7. Man. It's true USC isn't at the level many thought they would be. But is Utah any better? I mean, Utah was supposed to be pretty good so the fact they are playing pretty good can't justify such a line move can it? Is it solely on a USC correction because what would we be correcting on the Utah side? 11pt swing.

Think I heard some Utah players say this is the biggest game of the year. They view USC as a rival. Plenty of SoCal kids on Utah. It means alot. USC never really plays very smart or clean. Just such a big swing in the line.

Big swing in the Air Force at UNLV number, I can get this one...UNLV was -1, now +11! Air Force run D has been pretty amazing considering where they were last year and UNLV without Rogers.

Boise was -21, now 23.5

Michigan was -5, now -7

Ohio St was -18.5, now -13

Oklahoma was -6.5, now -7.5

LSU was -3, now -6.5

UCLA was pk, now -8
 
I agree on usc front and ended up parlaying utah with michigan. I just love utahs defense and see that being the difference in this one.
 
In other words, on pace for shittiest defense ever. BOOOO


Lol at the first comment. "Who is cfb?" That's such a dad joke. Assuming he's joking
 
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